For the marquee 3-ball, Rouslin sides with Ludvig Aberg against Hideki Matsuyama and Adam Scott. Aberg’s driving accuracy should be a massive asset at Oakmont. Matsuyama enters nursing multiple injuries, and while Scott’s major experience is vast, Rouslin argues his ceiling no longer matches Aberg’s. Confidence rating: 11/13.

Olesen gets the call over Noah Kent and Thriston Lawrence. Rouslin says the in-form Dane is clearly a class above his two opponents, rating the play inside his top-7 confidence tier.

At +220, Zac Blair is Rouslin’s contrarian dart against Alistair Docherty and Scott Vincent. Blair qualified the hard way, then cashed a paycheck at the RBC Canadian Open and should keep the ball in Oakmont’s narrow fairways—something his opponents have struggled with. Confidence: 8/13 on the card.

Guido Migliozzi over Bryan Lee and top amateur Preston Summerhays. Summerhays’ rapid ascent is impressive, but Rouslin trusts Migliozzi’s proven European Tour pedigree to handle Oakmont’s pressure. Confidence score: 10/13.

Rouslin is on Chris Gotterup to dispatch Mason Howell and Joakim Lagergren. Gotterup has shown spurts of elite distance-driven form and rates as one of the largest round-one favorites on the board. Confidence: top-7 tier.

Carlos Ortiz draws Yuta Sugiura and Matthew Jordan in what Rouslin calls one of the most uneven group of the round. Jordan is a solid DP World Tour pro but lacks elite upside, while Sugiura has struggled since missing the Sony Open cut. Ortiz’s recent LIV performances make him a 9/13 confidence pick.

At +100, Doug Ghim over Alvaro Ortiz and Carlos Blanchet is Rouslin’s value play. Ghim’s recent ball-striking numbers rank among the best in this bottom tier of qualifiers, a skill set tailor-made for Oakmont’s demanding approach shots. Rouslin lists it inside his top-7 confidence bracket.

Rouslin is riding Sam Burns to defeat Nicolas Echavarria and Denny McCarthy. Burns lost a playoff to Ryan Fox last week and notched his first career major top-10 in a major a few weeks, signaling a sharp uptick in form. With confidence ranked in his top 4 bets, Rouslin expects that momentum to carry through Round-1 at Oakmont.

Grillo gets the nod over Sam Bairstow and Frederic Lacroix. Rouslin called it a straightforward talent play: Grillo is the most accomplished golfer of the three and recent strokes-gained numbers show he is moving in the right direction. Confidence level sits in his top-7 tier.

Rouslin likes Mark Hubbard against college star Michael La Sasso and former winner James Hahn. Hubbard owns consistent PGA Tour results plus a T26 at the 2024 PGA Championship, whereas Hahn’s level has fallen dramatically and La Sasso faces a massive leap from college to a U.S. Open setup. Confidence: top-7 pick on the sheet.

Rouslin is backing Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen over Justin Hastings and Laurie Canter. Although Petersen has missed three straight cuts, each start has shown incremental improvement and his metrics point upward. Hastings is the world’s No. 25 amateur and still untested at major-championship level, while Canter’s form has cratered. That combination makes Petersen a confident 13/13 play for the tout.

Rouslin selected Brian Harman to beat Cameron Smith and Phil Mickelson in their Oakmont opener. Harman has been the better player for two straight seasons and arrives in solid form. Rouslin doubts both Smith and Mickelson will keep the driver in play on Oakmont’s brutal fairways, a key weakness that should hand the accuracy-oriented Harman a big edge. Confidence rating: top-4 on his card.

Jason Rouslin backed Rasmus Hojgaard to win his Round-1 three-ball over amateur Benjamin James and Stephan Jaeger. Rouslin noted that Hojgaard is simply playing the best golf of the trio right now and projects as the superior long-term talent. With neither James nor Jaeger showing current form that matches Hojgaard’s ball-striking, Rouslin assigned a confidence rating of 12/13 to the pick.

Doubling down, Williams took Conners +400 for a Top-10. He reiterated Conners’ elite driving accuracy, year-long ball-striking form and improved putting on fast surfaces, believing those traits position him for another high finish even if the outright ticket falls short.

Kirschner played DeChambeau Even Money to finish inside the Top-20 after Round 1. He argued that the U.S. Open will always reward length and nobody is longer than Bryson. With the 2024 major run (win and two other close calls) still fresh, Kirschner calls the bet "very safe" for a player likely to overpower Oakmont early.

MacMillan is fading McIlroy with a +300 ‘miss the cut’ ticket. He referenced Rory’s own admission that motivation has dipped after completing the career Grand Slam and pointed to ongoing driver tinkering that led to a +9 Friday at the Canadian Open. MacMillan doubts McIlroy can flip the switch on Oakmont’s exacting setup and will continue to fade him until the metrics show life.

Giuffra took English 70-1 FRL, explaining that his only concern in the outright market is sustaining approach play over four rounds. In a one-round sample the combination of length, accuracy and elite putting is lethal. English’s Thursday morning slot on Oakmont’s friendlier front nine gives Giuffra confidence he can post an early number.

Williams grabbed Hovland 50-1 for FRL, reasoning that Oakmont’s ball-striking test aligns perfectly with the Norwegian’s ceiling. He admits Hovland may mix in a blow-up round later, but notes that the improved around-the-green play and tall rough that levels chipping skill could allow Viktor to fire something in the mid-60s on Thursday.

Schwarb’s FRL dart is Lowry at 50-1. Although the Irishman’s major results this year (MC, final-round 81) look ugly, Schwarb chalked them up to one-off disasters rather than poor form. He calls Lowry arguably the best winless player on tour this season and trusts his straight driving to post the morning clubhouse lead while others find Oakmont’s rough.

Kirschner took Finau 70-1 for FRL. He reminded listeners that Big Tone finished T3 at last year’s U.S. Open and owns two additional Top-8s in the event. Finau has gained 5 strokes on approach at Quail Hollow and 3 more at the Memorial in his last two starts, signalling irons are heating up. Kirschner thinks that form translates to a Thursday 65-66 that could cash the ticket.

MacMillan added Scheffler +1200 for First-Round Leader, arguing his current level gives him a sizable edge even on Oakmont’s opening day. He anticipates Scheffler opening with a number that immediately separates him from the field and sets up a multi-stroke victory by week’s end.

Cody Williams doubled down on English at 100-1, emphasizing that he ranks 2nd in the entire field in SG: Putting on fast greens over his last 36 rounds and owns top-tier driving accuracy. With recent major finishes of T12 (Masters) and T2 (PGA) plus a reputation for thriving on difficult layouts, Williams believes English has the tools to surprise late on Sunday.

Kirschner’s other longshot is Maverick McNealy at 110-1. McNealy enters off a T5 at the Memorial—his sixth Top-10 of 2025—and is chasing a Ryder Cup berth. Kirschner noted that McNealy is one of the best putters on earth and has recently gained strokes off the tee in both distance and accuracy. He trusts Mav to decipher Oakmont’s brutal greens and sees legitimate ceiling if the ball-striking holds.

Schwarb snagged Harris English at 100-1, reminding readers that the Georgian has placed 3rd, 4th and T8 in his last five U.S. Opens and added a T12 at Augusta plus a T2 at the PGA this season. Stat-wise English is 46th in SG: Off-the-Tee and 20th in SG: Putting, an ideal combo for Oakmont. Schwarb thinks those credentials justify a much shorter number and makes English his favorite bomb.

MacMillan’s dart throw is Nick Taylor at 170-1. Although not long off the tee, Taylor sits 12th on tour in bogey avoidance (only 13.27% of holes) and has finished T17 or better in four of his last five starts. MacMillan believes the Canadian’s ability to limit mistakes is exactly what wins money at Oakmont, where every missed fairway can lead to a double.

Brian Giuffra wagered Morikawa +1800 in the ‘winner without Scheffler’ market and sprinkled +2500 outright. He cited Morikawa’s U.S. Open pedigree (two previous Top-5s and two additional Top-15s) and pinpoint accuracy—2nd on tour at 72.9% fairways—as perfect for Oakmont’s penal rough. Giuffra added that the long par-3s play into Morikawa’s mid- and long-iron strengths, and the two-time major winner has gained strokes putting in three straight starts. The only box unchecked is recent victory, but Giuffra argues Oakmont is a "ball-strikers’ paradise" tailor-made for Morikawa’s skill set.

Cody Williams grabbed Conners at 60-1, stressing that the Canadian ranks among the tour’s most accurate drivers and remains a "ball-striking stalwart." Williams likes that Conners has unexpectedly thrived with the putter on slick surfaces and that his tidy profile already produced a T9 at last year’s U.S. Open. With Oakmont expected to play firmer and faster than most majors, Williams sees Conners’ steady tee-to-green game and comfort on fast greens as undervalued upside.

Brian Kirschner fired at Bradley 100-1 on DraftKings, pointing to a sneaky-good 2025 season that has featured a T8 at the PGA Championship and a T7 at the Memorial—two demanding driving tests comparable to Oakmont. Kirschner highlighted Bradley’s exceptional ball-striking in both events and believes the veteran’s accuracy off the tee and solid short game give him real contend-equity. If the putter stays neutral, Kirschner thinks Bradley can ride that consistency into Sunday contention.

John Schwarb also backed Scheffler at +280, envisioning a PGA-Championship-style script: a chaotic board early before the best tee-to-green player in the world asserts control. Schwarb noted that Oakmont’s greens are "diabolical," but Scheffler’s elite ball-striking affords him margin for error and should allow him to survive the inevitable danger spots. Schwarb expects the Texan to claim his third major and sit three-quarters of the way to the career Grand Slam by Sunday evening.

Iain MacMillan said he would rather eat the +280 chalk on Scheffler than chase a long-shot because the World No. 1 owns an enormous edge right now. Over the last six months Scheffler has gained 0.73 true strokes per round more than any other player on the planet, a gap MacMillan views as "by a wide margin." He added that Scheffler’s chief rivals are all dealing with form or injury issues—McIlroy’s driver is lost, DeChambeau’s irons are off, Rahm has yet to flash his A-plus gear, and Schauffele is still working back from a rib injury. On an Oakmont setup that tests every part of the bag, MacMillan believes Scheffler’s current level justifies even shorter odds and expects him to win golf’s toughest exam.

Cody Williams fired on Viktor Hovland First-Round Leader at +5000 (DraftKings). Williams said Oakmont is a pure ball-striker’s exam, tailor-made for Hovland’s best self. He acknowledged Hovland’s season has been uneven, yet noted signs of life with the short game and argued the thick rough could level the around-the-green playing field. If Hovland is ‘dialed with driver and approaches’ for 18 holes, Williams sees 50-to-1 as a strong value bet for an early statement round.

Brian Kirschner bought Tony Finau First-Round Leader at +7000 on DraftKings. Kirschner reminded bettors Finau finished T3 at last year’s U.S. Open and owns two other top-8s in the championship. The irons are heating up again—Finau gained 5 strokes on approach at Quail Hollow and 3 at the Memorial. Kirschner believes a dialed-in iron day Thursday can vault Big Tone to the top before the putter inevitably cools later in the week.

Iain MacMillan’s favorite long-shot dart is Nick Taylor at +17000 (FanDuel). Taylor has finished T17 or better in four of his last five starts and ranks 12th on Tour in bogey avoidance, posting bogeys on only 13.27% of holes. MacMillan reasoned that the Canadian’s ability to keep big numbers off the card is a massive edge at Oakmont, where par often wins the hole. While he lacks elite distance, Taylor’s current form and tidy short game justify a 170-to-1 sprinkle.

Brian Giuffra bet Harris English First-Round Leader at +7000 on FanDuel. Giuffra’s concern with English over four days is streaky approach play, but he loves him for 18 holes. English combines length with fairway-finding, is ‘typically solid’ around the green, and ranks near the top in putting. Slotted in the Thursday morning wave starting on Oakmont’s easier front nine, Giuffra believes English can pour in birdies before the course firms up and cash a 70-to-1 ticket.

John Schwarb played Shane Lowry First-Round Leader at +5000 (DraftKings). Schwarb argued Lowry is ‘arguably the best player on Tour without a 2025 win’ and trusts his accuracy off the tee to survive Oakmont early. He dismissed Lowry’s ugly Masters 81 and a PGA missed cut as outliers, preferring to exploit the FRL market where one hot ball-striking day can pay 50-to-1.

Brian Kirschner grabbed Bryson DeChambeau Top-20 AFTER ROUND 1 at even money (+100 on DraftKings). Kirschner said the U.S. Open always tilts toward length and called DeChambeau ‘the longest in the world.’ With the 2024 champion posting elite major results all season, Kirschner feels a Thursday fast start is almost inevitable regardless of venue. The bet limits exposure to one round, leveraging Bryson’s power while avoiding potential weekend volatility.

John Schwarb turned his long-shot outright into a safer Top-20 wager on Harris English at +250 (DraftKings). English owns a superb U.S. Open resume—3rd, 4th, and T8 in his last five starts—and arrives with major momentum after T12 at the Masters and T2 at the PGA. Schwarb highlighted English’s blend of stats: 46th in strokes-gained off the tee and 20th in putting, a combo he says is ‘more than enough’ to hang around Oakmont all weekend. The +250 price, in Schwarb’s view, underrates English’s course fit and major pedigree.

Iain MacMillan is fading Rory McIlroy to MISS THE CUT at +300. MacMillan noted McIlroy admitted motivation has waned since completing the career Grand Slam at Augusta and is publicly struggling to find a driver setup. The evidence: a shocking +9 second round that led to a Friday exit at the Canadian Open. MacMillan doubts McIlroy can rebound from one of his worst rounds ever to tackle Oakmont’s penal fairways and lightning greens, urging bettors to ride the form slump until further notice.

Cody Williams doubled down on Corey Conners by adding a Top-10 ticket at +400 on BetMGM. Williams loves Conners’ elite driving accuracy and overall ball-striking, traits that mitigate Oakmont’s brutal rough and brutal greens. The tout also cited Conners’ ‘sneaky’ gains with the putter on fast surfaces and reminded readers the Canadian cracked last year’s U.S. Open with a T9. With soft conditions likely limiting roll-out, Williams expects Conners to pepper fairways, hit a ton of greens, and cash the 4-to-1 Top-10 ticket even if he doesn’t take the trophy.

Brian Giuffra wagered on Collin Morikawa at +2500 (outright) and +1800 in the ‘without Scheffler’ market. Giuffra pointed to Morikawa’s U.S. Open record—two top-5s and two additional top-15s—and called Oakmont a perfect fit because it rewards accuracy. Morikawa ranks 2nd on Tour in fairways hit (72.87%) and is among the best with mid-to-long irons, a key on Oakmont’s lengthy par-3s. Importantly, Morikawa has gained strokes putting in three straight starts, addressing his perennial weakness. Giuffra thinks that combination of driving accuracy, iron prowess, and improved putting gives Morikawa the best chance to upset Scheffler.

Brian Kirschner grabbed Keegan Bradley at +10000 on DraftKings to win outright, arguing that Bradley’s 2025 consistency is being overlooked. Bradley finished T8 at the PGA Championship and T7 at the Memorial—both tight, demanding driving venues similar to Oakmont. Kirschner highlighted elite recent ball-striking in those two starts and trusts Bradley’s ability to find fairways and handle thick rough. Kirschner admitted the Ryder Cup captaincy subplot adds motivation but said the statistical profile alone makes him live at triple-digit odds.

Iain MacMillan said the U.S. Open should be a Scottie Scheffler coronation and bet him outright at +280 on FanDuel. MacMillan cited Scheffler’s outrageous six-month run in which he has gained 0.73 true strokes per round more than any other player, calling the gap 'a wide margin.' He noted that the chief threats—Rory McIlroy, Bryson DeChambeau, Jon Rahm, and Xander Schauffele—either have driver issues, shaky irons, or are coming off injury. With the field searching for form and Oakmont demanding complete tee-to-green excellence, MacMillan believes Scheffler’s price is actually too long and expects him to claim the season’s toughest major.

Colt Knost backed Xander Schauffele for another U.S. Open top-10 at +210. Knost reminded listeners that Schauffele has landed inside the top 10 in seven of eight career U.S. Opens, the lone miss coming in 2022 when he still managed T14. Although Schauffele dealt with an early-season injury, Knost believes the Olympic gold medalist is starting to round into form and historically elevates his game for this championship, making the identical +210 price a bet he is comfortable firing again.

Drew Stoltz bet Collin Morikawa to finish inside the top 10 at +210 on Fanatics Sportsbook. Stoltz pointed to Morikawa ranking 2nd in driving accuracy on Tour, a crucial edge on Oakmont’s brutally narrow fairways. He added that Morikawa’s iron game trails only Scottie Scheffler and that the two-time major champ has finished top-20 in five of his last six majors. Morikawa’s U.S. Open track record—4th, 5th, 14th, 14th the past four years—convinced Stoltz he is the best challenger to Scheffler and a plus-value play for bettors hunting placement props.

Guy Boston Sports closed the show by pitching Mark Hubbard as a “sneaky, sneaky” top-40 punt at roughly +200. Hubbard sits inside the top-20 in both scrambling and bogey avoidance over his last 24 rounds, two categories the tout calls “massive” for any U.S. Open, let alone Oakmont’s gnarly setup. He also gains strokes out of the rough—whether on approach or around the greens—giving him a built-in recovery path if he misses fairways. Although Hubbard’s outright number is north of 400-1, Guy Boston Sports prefers the safer placement market and anticipates value in plus-odds head-to-head matchups once books post lines.

Guy Boston Sports put Taylor Pendrith on his long-shot radar as a potential top-40 bet. Pendrith ranks top-10 on Tour in strokes-gained off the tee when he’s “on,” and the tout thinks that single weapon can fast-track him into contention at Oakmont, a venue where clearing the 4-inch rough with length is a tangible edge. Although Pendrith’s approach play oscillates, his overall tee-to-green trendline is positive: four of his last five starts show strokes gained off the tee and a net +6.3 total ball-striking. If the Canadian’s driver behaves, Guy Boston Sports believes he can ride that advantage to a steady placement cash in the +150 to +175 range and will look to pair him in plus-money matchups against shorter, less powerful drivers.

Guy Boston Sports flagged Corey Conners as a player he “does like” for Oakmont, framing him as a top-20 or top-30 sleeper depending on price. Conners is coming off a T10 in last year’s U.S. Open and, per the tout, is playing “fantastic” golf in 2025 with markedly sharper irons than the version that missed three straight major cuts in 2023-24. The Canadian’s trademark fairway-finding driver (top-15 in fairways hit this season) should keep him out of Oakmont’s penal rough, and his long-iron proximity numbers have jumped from 41st to 18th tour-wide over the past two months. That upward trajectory, plus a proven high finish at this championship, makes Conners a live placement and matchup option rather than a pure outright stab.

Guy Boston Sports endorsed Si Woo Kim for a top-40 ticket, calling it the kind of “cushiony” placement that fits Oakmont’s brutality. He highlighted three stats from Kim’s last 16 rounds that matter most this week: 12th in scrambling, 14th in bogey avoidance, and 16th in putting from 5-15 feet—exactly the grind-it-out skill set needed when greens are rock-hard and par is a good score. While Kim sits only mid-pack off the tee, the tout is less worried because the closer Kim gets to the green the stronger his profile becomes. Kim has quietly finished inside the top-40 in each of the last two U.S. Opens, reinforcing the floor. The play is a straight top-40 at standard juice and he will also be on the shortlist for head-to-head matchups once books hang numbers.

Guy Boston Sports likes buying the dip on Daniel Berger at even money for a top-40 or +135 for a top-30. Despite two straight missed cuts, Berger’s last 16-round sample shows the exact ingredients for Oakmont: accurate off the tee, top-30 scrambling, and strong approach play, particularly from rye bluegrass rough. His most recent U.S. Open start resulted in T21, evidence he handles major setups. The tout admitted the recent results are ugly but trusts the underlying numbers and sees Berger as a sneaky head-to-head weapon in addition to the placement bet.

Guy Boston Sports slotted Harris English into the top-40 bucket, citing the veteran’s ability to keep the ball in play. English ranks top-25 in fairways hit, 14th in strokes gained off the tee, 8th in putting, and 21st in bogey avoidance over the last 16 rounds. While his scrambling, approach, and around-the-green numbers are merely average, the tout argues that consistently finding fairways and rolling putts are the two non-negotiables at Oakmont. That profile makes English a low-volatility choice for placement markets and a sensible name to circle for matchup cards.