Kenny G likes UNDER 7.5 in Cincinnati–Kansas City. Hunter Greene (2.54 ERA) has been solid since returning from a groin strain, and Kenny expects his pitch count to rise. Royals rookie Noah Cameron boasts a ridiculous 0.93 ERA through three starts, allowing only two earned runs total versus Tampa Bay, St. Louis and Minnesota. Both bullpens are competent—Kansas City sits top-8 while Cincinnati’s 4.07 mark is serviceable. The Royals offense is ice-cold (26th runs, 25th SLG, scoring 2-4-2-4-1 the last five) and the Reds, despite recent bursts, still trend under (15-11-1 on the road). With each club already 17-10 (KC) and 15-11-1 (CIN) to the under in their respective home/road splits, Kenny expects a classic pitcher’s duel that struggles to reach eight runs.

Just A Bet Outside bet Noah Cameron over 16.5 outs recorded (-115 at DraftKings) in Wednesday’s start versus Cincinnati. Cameron has worked 6+ innings in all three MLB appearances, clearing the mark with 19, 19 and 21 outs. His underlying metrics impress: 2.12 xERA, 85th-percentile expected batting average, and sub-.100 xBA on both his change-up and slider. The rookie southpaw faces a Reds lineup that owns a 44 wRC+, .195 AVG and 4th-highest K-rate against lefties over the past three weeks. With Kansas City’s bullpen depleted after six relievers threw on consecutive days, manager Matt Quatraro should extend Cameron’s leash. The lefty has issued only one walk in his last two starts, keeping pitch count low. Steven projects 17-21 outs and is comfortable playing the over to -125.

Matt Perrault played the Reds team total over 3.5 runs (-135) by leaning into Cincinnati’s torrid offensive form. The Reds have plated 6, 6, 8, 7 and 7 runs across their last five games, fueled by Elly De La Cruz’s two-homer eruption Tuesday—his 11th of the season and fifth multi-homer game, tying Pete Rose’s franchise mark for switch-hitters. Weather in Kansas City is forecast for the mid-70s with humidity, another boost for hitters. While he respects rookie lefty Noah Cameron’s three-start 1.59 ERA, Perrault is betting regression and a KC bullpen that has struggled behind him. Hunter Greene’s weaker road splits (1.86 ERA at home vs 3.48 on the road) steered Perrault away from a full-game side, but he’s confident the lineup can scratch four runs in any game script. A 4-3 Cincinnati win cashes the ticket, and Perrault is content paying the juice to ride the streak.

Rockford labeled Kansas City a live dog and made them –140 favorites against Hunter Greene. Rookie Noah Cameron has yielded just two runs total across his first three MLB starts (0.92 ERA) and owns a 31% whiff rate on a deceptive changeup that neutralizes right-handed hitters. The Reds are hitting only .213 versus left-handed pitching, and Greene’s road ERA is nearly a run higher (4.38) than at Great American Ballpark. With the Royals bullpen ranking fifth in ERA and Greene failing to complete five innings in back-to-back starts, Rockford sees Kansas City’s pitching edge carrying the day.

Lindquist backed the Reds money line at a short price because the game at Kauffman projects as a low-scoring slog. He pointed out that strong winds are again blowing straight in, suppressing power in one of the league’s biggest parks. On the mound, ace Hunter Greene is "my North Star" thanks to his 31 % strikeout rate and improved slider command, while Kansas City counters with impressive rookie lefty Ben Cameron (three starts, 2.45 ERA, 28 % K). With run-scoring conditions muted and Greene owning the clear ceiling, Lindquist believes the current number underrates Cincinnati’s win equity and called it his favorite side play in the mid-card window.

JDBetsHQ backed the Reds at +105, citing a glaring pitching mismatch. Kansas City is treating the night as a bullpen day with Daniel Lynch expected to open; Lynch has averaged barely an inning per appearance (23 IP over 22 games) and carries a 1.57 WHIP with more walks (12) than strikeouts (12) in that span. The Royals already rank 30th in walk rate and strand an alarming number of runners, making any deficit hard to erase. Cincinnati counters with Brady Singer, who knows the KC lineup inside-and-out from his years with the organization. Singer’s prop lines show 1.5 walks but no earned-run market, indicating books respect his command. JDBetsHQ notes that the Reds own a top-10 OPS while the Royals remain bottom-five in runs per game, so even average work from Singer should cash the plus-money moneyline.

Malcolm Bamford hammered the full-game total of 8.5, saying the market is sleeping on how hittable both starters could be. Brady Singer owns a 4.88 ERA overall and a gaudy 6.66 ERA on the road, rarely stringing together more than three clean innings. Kansas City is expected to debut 25-year-old right-hander Luinder Avila, who struck out 10.7 per nine in AAA but paired it with a 4.4 BB/9 and a mid-4s ERA across each stop in the minors. Bamford noted that young call-ups often struggle with command in a first outing, and he does not trust Singer’s tendency to leak baserunners (1.35 WHIP). With both bullpens ranking bottom-10 in xFIP over the past two weeks, he projects something like a 6-4 finish and wants the over before it climbs to 9.

Kingpin Sports backed the Royals moneyline because Daniel Lynch IV has been "lights out" with a 1.57 ERA against Brandon Singer’s 4.88. They expect Kansas City to extend its home roll with superior starting pitching.

Lonte Smith is taking Kansas City at roughly ‑105, trusting the rookie Avila to be just competent enough compared with the erratic Brady Singer. Smith pointed out that Cincinnati has been a poor road club all year and just blew an 8-3 lead Monday, hinting at a shaky bullpen and fragile mindset. The Royals have been streaky but generally play better at Kauffman, and Smith expects them to treat the series as a needed reset after falling behind 6-2 in the opener. He believes Singer’s 1.17 HR/9 makes him vulnerable to KC’s surging middle-order power and is betting that energy plus home field pushes the Royals to a series-evening win.

Just A Bet Outside grabbed the Royals–Reds under 8.5 runs at –110, citing brutal hitting conditions and shaky offenses. Temperatures are projected in the high-50s with a 13–14 mph wind howling in, a nightmare for fly-balls. Cincinnati throws Brady Singer in his return to Kauffman Stadium where he posted a 3.33 ERA last season; the spacious park should mitigate his fly-ball tendencies. Kansas City counters with a bullpen game headlined by opener Daniel Lynch, and its reliever corps owns the eighth-lowest xFIP in MLB. Offensively, the Royals have been league-average at best versus righties the last three weeks, while the Reds remain one of the most inconsistent lineups in baseball. After Monday’s 7-4 outlier, the tout expects regression toward the norm in cool, blustery weather and believes both pitching staffs can navigate these slumping bats.

Lindquist likes under 8.5 runs in Reds–Royals despite admitting neither Brady Singer nor Daniel Lynch inspire much confidence. He said the Kauffman Stadium weather is "atrocious"—temperatures in the low 50s with stiff winds blowing straight in—dramatically suppressing carry. While both offenses are capable of occasional outbursts, Lindquist anticipates depressed exit velocities and fewer home-run trajectories, projecting the total closer to 7.4 runs. He expects the market to move downward once updated weather models circulate, making an early under ticket attractive.

The tout likes the OVER after Monday’s 11-run shootout. Cincinnati has plated six-plus in four straight, while Kansas City’s bats should perk up against a slumping Brady Singer. Royals opener Daniel Lynch is only expected to cover an inning or two, exposing KC’s middle relief early. With both clubs swinging well and neither starter projected to work deep, Cash Out Sports Picks sees another high-scoring affair.

Kenny G likes Kansas City at –105, noting that a 3.20 bullpen ERA (5th-best in MLB) sets them up perfectly for a planned bullpen game. Opener Daniel Lynch IV brings a sparkling 1.57 ERA, and Kenny thinks the relief corps can carry six innings without issue. On the other side, Brady Singer’s 4.88 ERA and recent beat-downs by Houston and Atlanta make him a fade. The Reds’ once-reliable pen has ballooned to 4.11 and their lineup, while 9th in runs, is only 17th in AVG and 13th in SLG—hardly imposing away from Great American Ball Park. Trends line up too: Cincinnati is 15-11-1 to the under on the road, Royals 17-10 to the under at Kauffman, underscoring the value of a bullpen-driven grind. Because of the pitching edge late, Kenny says Royals –105 is likely to end up in his pinned comment.

Cash Out Sports Picks is taking Kansas City on the money line. The Royals are 17-10 at Kauffman and know ex-ace Brady Singer—now struggling with four straight rough outings for Cincinnati—inside and out. After dropping Monday’s opener, the handicapper expects a focused response from a club that generally plays its best baseball at home. Familiarity with Singer’s pitch mix plus favorable park splits leads the tout to label KC a buy-low spot.

Razzle likes Michael Lorenzen’s matchup if storms clear. Kansas City offers above-average strikeout upside and the park suppresses homers. Lorenzen’s 4.5 K-prop is juiced over, and the game’s 8-run total is shaded to the under, signaling pitcher-friendly conditions. Should the rain risk subside, Lorenzen jumps into his tournament pool as a salary saver with six-K, quality start potential.

Cash Out Sports Picks recommended the under, noting it has cashed in 10 of the Reds’ last 12 and five of the Royals’ last seven. Cincinnati’s staff holds a 3.43 ERA (11th) and Kansas City’s sits at 3.03 (2nd). Martinez’s hot streak and Lorenzen’s season-long 3.77 ERA suggest a low-scoring tilt, especially with both clubs trending toward the under lately.

Cash Out Sports Picks took the Reds on the money line, citing Nick Martinez’s current groove (one earned run over his last 14 innings and six straight starts of 6+ IP) against a Royals offense that owns the league’s fewest homers (32) and has dropped seven of ten. Martinez also sports a 2.70 career ERA versus KC. Michael Lorenzen has surrendered 24 hits and 11 runs in his last four outings, and Kansas City is 1-4 in its last five at home. Despite Cincinnati’s ugly series at Wrigley, the tout expects the Reds’ balanced attack (11th in MLB scoring) and superior recent pitching form to prevail.

Dylan Rockford said Kansas City’s money-line is a steal, noting he made the Royals –140 yet the market is still hanging plus money. He trusts Michael Lorenzen’s Jekyll-and-Hyde splits (19 home innings, 2 ER) and pointed out every one of his Kauffman starts has stayed under the posted total. With 13 mph winds blowing straight in and Cincinnati’s bullpen coming off a weekend meltdown, Rockford wants no part of full-game Reds exposure. He suggested pairing Royals ML with the first-five under and even sprinkled an over 17.5 outs prop on Nick Martinez because the Reds “burned everybody” when their pen imploded. “Dead under game, Royals should be favored,” he concluded.

Kenny G also played the total, locking in under 8.0 runs thanks to two scuffling offenses and solid starting pitching. Cincinnati sits 14-10 to the under on the road and has scored two or fewer in three of its last five. Kansas City is even stingier, ranking 27th in runs and 26th in slugging while cashing unders in 17 of 26 home dates. Kenny trusts Nick Martinez’s recent surge—four dominant outings in his last five—and believes Michael Lorenzen can navigate a middling Reds order. With both bullpens carrying sub-4.20 ERAs and night conditions forecasted to suppress carry at spacious Kauffman Stadium, he projects no more than six or seven total runs and urged bettors to take the flat 8 before it potentially slips to 7.5.

Kenny G recommended laying the modest -120 on Kansas City, arguing the Royals hold clear intangible and statistical edges over Cincinnati. He noted Michael Lorenzen’s 3.77 ERA masks a string of strong starts and believes the veteran’s heavy ground-ball profile matches up well against a Reds lineup that ranks just 17th in batting average and has produced 0, 1 and 6 runs in three of its last five games. Lorenzen is backed by a bullpen sporting a 3.22 ERA—top-10 in MLB—while the Reds relief corps has ballooned to 4.11 and blew an 11–8 game to the Cubs on Sunday. Kenny also pointed out K.C.’s 17-9 home record and 17-9 under trend at Kauffman, indicators the market still underrates their pitching. With Nick Martinez carrying a 2-5 record despite solid surface numbers, Kenny expects Kansas City’s more reliable late-inning arms to swing a close contest and called the -120 tag “short for the better overall staff.”

It's The Final Round endorsed Bobby Witt Jr. for basic hit markets against Reds swingman Nick Martinez. Martinez relies on a sinker 26 % of the time yet opponents are batting .333 on the pitch, while Witt barrels sinkers at a .348 clip and owns a 37.5 % sweet-spot launch-angle rate (69th in MLB). Witt is on a six-game hitting streak and is 2-for-4 with a homer lifetime off Martinez (500 average). Over the last ten games he has hit the single market in 7 of 9 and recorded at least one hit in 8 of 10, but hasn’t been as reliable on total bases or hits+runs+RBIs. The tout therefore prefers Witt to record a hit or record a single as standalone wagers or in a modest hit parlay, avoiding the higher-variance combo props.

Eric Halterman advised scooping up Will Benson while everything is clicking. After striking out 40 % of the time last year, Benson has trimmed that to 26 % since returning to the majors and is torching pitchers to the tune of a .353 average, five homers and a 1.303 OPS over 11 games. The former first-rounder already flashed a 14-HR/16-SB season in fewer than 400 PA, so any contact gains unlock 25-plus homer and 20-plus steal pace. Halterman warned that Benson will likely sit versus lefties and could cool off quickly, but says the temporary impact in roto leagues is too big to ignore while Jake Fraley’s calf injury keeps Benson in the lineup.

Wilkerson recommended Bobby Witt Jr. to homer at +525 against Reds swingman Nick Martinez. He labeled Martinez an "innings-eater" whose low-90s fastball and sub-25% whiff rate force him to live on grounders, a profile that leaves little margin for error. Witt already owns success in the tiny sample: a double and a home run in four at-bats versus Martinez. Given Witt’s well-documented elite bat speed and natural lift, Wilkerson believes Martinez’s contact-heavy approach creates the perfect setup for fireworks.

Peterson laid -116 with Kansas City, noting Michael Lorenzen’s 3.77 ERA and manageable 1.4 HR/9, then highlighting a Royals bullpen that ranks 5th in MLB with a 3.27 ERA. While Nick Martinez owns a respectable 3.43 ERA, Peterson stressed the number jumps to 4.18 on the road and that Cincinnati’s overall staff ERA (4.11, 18th) is mediocre. He made the Royals -134 and felt the superior relief corps would decide a close game.