John Alesia highlights Dylan Cease as a viable DFS pivot at an elevated salary of $9,300, projecting lower owned due to the tough ballpark conditions. Despite not rating Cease too highly overall, Alesia likes his leverage potential, especially if combined with chalky stud Paul Skenes at the top two pitcher salaries, suggesting this route greatly differentiates lineups while maintaining strikeout upside.

DraftCheat strongly advises stacking hitters against Guardians pitcher Ben Lively, believing he vastly overperformed last season. He's confident negative regression is on its way, starting today against San Diego’s powerful offense. DraftCheat shows firm skepticism regarding any sustainable success from Lively, advocating strongly for rostering Padres hitters against him today.

Joe Osborne is betting the under on Ben Lively recording 15.5 total outs for the Guardians against San Diego. He noted that despite a decent debut against Kansas City, Cleveland pulled Lively after just 5 innings and 67 pitches, indicating their cautious approach and heavy reliance on their bullpen. Last season, Lively rarely reached high pitch counts—only once surpassing 100 pitches in 29 starts and frequently kept below 90 pitches. Facing an elite Padres offense ranked 6th in OPS and lowest strikeout rate makes him more likely to struggle and exit early, especially with Guardians bullpen fresh after using just two relievers yesterday.

Final Round discussed Steven Kwan as a possible lower-confidence, sneaky play against Dylan Cease. Kwan historically hits two of Cease's three main pitches extremely well (.328 average against four-seam fastball, .444 against knuckle curve) but notably struggles against Cease's slider (.200 average). Cease shows strength in limiting hitters, particularly on his slider (.166 batting average against), presenting significant uncertainty. Despite hesitation, Final Round still views Kwan as a valuable add as a secondary or fill-in option for DFS or betting lineups.

Final Round recommended Fernando Tatis Jr. as an ideal hitter to target against Logan Allen due to significant matchup advantages. Allen struggles notably, allowing opposing hitters batting averages of .300 or greater on three of his primary pitches. Although Tatis only has a .222 average against four-seam fastballs, he performs well overall against the majority of pitch types he will face. Early-season data further supports this choice, as Tatis hit safely in all four start-of-season games, with two being multi-hit outings. Considering Allen's vulnerability and Tatis's hot offensive streak, Final Round strongly supported playing Tatis both individually and in parlay situations.

Drew Martin strongly backs the Padres at -150 with Michael King pitching, calling it the night's best bet. Despite labored performances earlier, King now faces a weaker Guardians lineup compared to the Braves, whom the Padres recently swept convincingly. King also had an excellent past outing against Cleveland, allowing just one run and two hits over seven innings. Additionally, the Padres have displayed excellence from the bullpen (third-best WHIP at 0.69), whereas Cleveland's bullpen has struggled. Martin believes these factors make San Diego undervalued heading into this matchup, warranting a strong best bet recommendation.

Brian Howard confidently backed the Padres at home against the Guardians, highlighting Michael King’s strong pitching arsenal including identifiable 'outpitches' that help pitchers consistently win matchups. He specifically commended King’s pitching style, noting King appeared to have strong stuff that sets him apart from Logan Allen of the Guardians. Howard pointed out the Padres' lineup has been responding well recently, and noted they're becoming legitimate threats in the NL West signal a shift in dominance as the Braves are dealing with struggles. Given this pitching mismatch at home, Howard strongly endorsed the Padres to win outright.

Guy Boston advises targeting San Diego Padres team total over 3.5 runs, primarily due to their strong matchup against Cleveland's Luis Ortiz. Ortiz historically struggles against this Padres lineup, posting a .330 expected batting average and .530 slugging percentage across nearly 60 plate appearances. Ortiz predominantly throws fastballs and sliders—pitch types San Diego's lineup excels against, ranking Number One in runs above average versus sliders last season. Boston acknowledges Kyle Hart's questionable pitching resume for San Diego but still confidently recommends betting the Padres team total given Ortiz's tendencies and the Padres' recent dominance sweeping Atlanta.

Scott Reichel identifies value in betting the Guardians as underdogs against the Padres, mainly due to San Diego potentially experiencing fatigue and bullpen depletion from playing Sunday Night Baseball against the Braves. Scott highlighted historical betting trends showing teams that come off Sunday Night Baseball often struggle in their subsequent Monday games. With Cleveland finishing their weekend matchup early compared to San Diego's late game, Scott believes the situational rest advantage for the Guardians provides strong underdog betting value.

Eric Pathi recommended confidently taking the Cleveland Guardians at plus 36 cents strictly due to their recent success as an underdog winner. He pointed to recent betting history, specifically citing the example of St. Louis Cardinals, who followed a dog win with another profitable underdog win. Pathi emphasized that baseball betting strategy can be simple and efficient by consistently backing an underdog following a victory as an underdog, asserting that it yields positive returns and avoids unnecessary betting complexity.

Bill Harrelson recommended Andres Gimenez for over 1.5 combined hits, runs, and RBI, highlighting his strong recent form hitting this line in nine of his last ten games and in every game this year. Sportsbooks strongly favor this play, with DraftKings posting odds at minus 130 and Sleeper at minus 139. Gimenez is also historically solid facing the Nationals, achieving two combined runs and RBI when facing them previously. Last season he reached this mark at 47%, currently improving with increased productivity to begin this year.