Jeremy Cluff predicted a 30-20 Buffalo victory on Thursday Night Football. He pointed to Miami’s ugly history in the series—five straight losses and 13 defeats in the last 14 meetings—as a key indicator that the matchup strongly favors Buffalo. Cluff added that Josh Allen and the Bills are "hard to beat at home in the regular season," reinforcing his confidence in Buffalo despite BetMGM posting a hefty ‑12.5 point spread (Bills ‑900 moneyline; Dolphins +600). With ESPN’s win-probability model giving Buffalo a 75.8% chance to win and several analytic sites projecting double-digit margins, Cluff advised readers to side with the Bills on both the straight-up result and any wagers that hinge on Buffalo controlling the game.

Brad Evans built a single-game parlay at +105 odds that combines a James Cook anytime touchdown with Buffalo ‑6.5 on the alternate spread. Evans highlighted Cook’s absurd consistency: touchdowns in 16 of his last 21 games (playoffs included) and four scores in four career outings versus Miami. BetAlytics assigns a 60% chance he finds the paint again. Miami’s rush defense ranks 19th in EPA and is surrendering 4.06 yards per carry, while Cook is fresh off a three-TD start to 2025. On the spread leg, Evans cited Buffalo’s six-game win streak over the Dolphins dating back to 2022, with an average margin of 10.8 points. He also referenced Miami’s ugly early-season metrics – 26th in offensive EPA/play and 32nd in defensive EPA/play – and framed Mike McDaniel’s “hot seat” as motivation for Buffalo to pour it on. As long as Josh Allen doesn’t vulture multiple goal-line sneaks, Evans expects Cook to score and the Bills to win comfortably, making the +105 parlay a value bet.

Brad Evans said to smash the over on De'Von Achane’s 37.5-yard receiving prop, pointing to an expected negative game script with Buffalo laying 12.5 points. Evans noted that when Tua Tagovailoa feels pressure he habitually checks down to Achane, giving the back a 23.7% target share through two weeks – second-highest on the team – while averaging 20 routes, 5.5 catches and 56 receiving yards. Although the Bills have yielded only 51 receiving yards total to running backs this season, Evans reminded readers that Achane burned this defense for 15 grabs and 127 yards across two meetings last year. He views Achane as the one dependable Dolphin and expects Miami to trail early, forcing “Dump-Off De'Von” past the 37.5-yard mark.

Jay Canale took Over 52.5 rushing yards on De'Von Achane at -118. Achane has topped this number in all four career meetings with Buffalo and has opened 2025 with 72 and 122 total yards despite the Dolphins’ offensive struggles. The Bills will be without Pro Bowl defenders Ed Oliver and Matt Milano, a duo that anchors their run front. Canale expects those absences to create wider lanes, allowing Achane to remain the lone bright spot and sail past the mid-50s threshold.

Jay Canale said the +120 line on Josh Allen clearing 250 passing yards is a bargain. He pointed out that Miami just surrendered 272 yards to Daniel Jones and 230 yards on an 82.6% completion rate to Drake Maye. Pro Football Focus grades the Dolphins as the fifth-worst coverage unit and the single worst pass-rush group this season. With Buffalo laying 12.5 points and Allen nursing a nose injury that should limit designed runs, Canale expects the Bills to keep their quarterback clean in the pocket and let him pick apart a porous secondary en route to another 250-plus yard outing.

Jay Canale played Over 3.5 receptions on Khalil Shakir at -165. Shakir’s slow start stemmed from a high-ankle sprain that erased most of training camp, not a performance decline. When at full speed he is Josh Allen’s most trusted safety valve, and Miami’s secondary is down multiple starters. With the line depressed by early-season box scores, Canale expects Shakir to reclaim his usual slot role and haul in at least four balls on Thursday night.

Jay Canale endorsed James Cook at -165 to score, calling it as close to a sure thing as betting gets. Cook has found the end zone in 16 of his last 21 games, and Miami’s run defense sits squarely in the middle of the league by most metrics. With Josh Allen’s nose still healing, the staff is expected to funnel short-yardage carries to Cook instead of risking quarterback sneaks. Buffalo’s 12.5-point favorite status implies multiple red-zone trips, giving Cook ample chances to punch one in.

Steve Seagrave recommended Tyreek Hill OVER 22.5 yards for his longest reception at ‑110. According to Seagrave, Tua Tagovailoa has been force-feeding Hill—evident in a 47-yard bomb against New England last week after a quieter opener where Hill’s long catch was 21 yards. Buffalo held Jets receivers in check in Week 2, but their secondary showed cracks in a Week 1 shootout when Zay Flowers (39 yards) and DeAndre Hopkins (29 yards) both cleared this number. Hill himself logged a 28-yard grab the last time he visited Orchard Park. Corner Christian Benford won’t shadow him all game, and Hill’s world-class speed gives him a separation edge on any coverage. While thunderstorms are possible, Seagrave noted the receiver always ‘knows where he’s going,’ giving him an advantage on slick turf. With Buffalo favored by 12.5, Miami is projected to chase points, setting up multiple down-field shots to Hill and making one reception of 23+ yards the most likely outcome.

Steve Seagrave advised betting James Cook OVER 82.5 rushing + receiving yards at ‑120 for Thursday Night Football. Seagrave pointed out that Cook has smashed triple-digit scrimmage yards in three straight games, opening 2025 with 135 against the Jets and 102 against the Ravens. He also topped this number in one of two meetings with Miami last season (95 and 69). The Dolphins have been a friendly matchup, ranking 5th in rushing attempts and 9th in rushing yards allowed to running backs, and they have already been burned for 142 all-purpose yards by Rhamondre Stevenson and 98 by Jonathan Taylor, who added 27 receiving yards. Even Stevenson’s backup TreVeyon Henderson racked up 30 receiving yards, showing Miami’s vulnerability to backs in the passing game. With a short week, a forecast calling for thunderstorms, and Buffalo laying ‑12.5, Seagrave expects a run-first, screen-heavy script that funnels touches to Cook and makes 82.5 a very reachable number.

Pete Prisco predicted a 33-17 Buffalo win laying 12 points at Caesars. He said the Bills 'are rolling' while Miami's defense 'has looked bad' and expects a 'big night' from Josh Allen, arguing the Dolphins won’t keep up with Buffalo’s offensive firepower. Betting takeaway: lay the double-digit number with the Bills.

Jeremy Cluff picked Buffalo to beat Miami 30-20, stressing two betting angles. First, the Dolphins have dropped five straight and 13 of their last 14 to the Bills. Second, Cluff argued that Josh Allen-led Buffalo is "hard to beat at home in the regular season," implying the Orchard Park venue advantage remains priced too lightly into the Thursday Night Football line.

Michael Rathburn said the betting market has run the Buffalo number too far, noting the Bills opened at -8.5 in May, touched -10.5 on 9/9, and re–opened at -12.5/-13.5 on 9/14 after Buffalo’s easy Week-2 win over the Jets and Miami’s ugly loss to Indianapolis. He reminded readers that 12.5 blows through the key numbers of 10 and 11 and is unusually rich for an AFC East game where familiarity normally keeps things close. Rathburn’s read is that the current line reflects a pure public fade of the 0-2 Dolphins rather than any meaningful matchup change, creating value in grabbing the Dolphins plus the points before sharp money shows up.

Mark Lammey said the best way to attack Thursday Night Football is Josh Allen over 1.5 passing touchdowns at -147 on Novig. Lammey argued the number is simply too low given Allen’s history against Miami: he has thrown at least two TDs in 13 of 14 career matchups with the Dolphins, including three scores in their most recent meeting. With James Cook now handling a larger share of the rushing workload, Allen is free to pick apart defenses through the air instead of around the goal line with his legs. Buffalo enters 2-0, laying 12.5 points at home, a script Lammey believes will keep Allen throwing while the game is competitive. Given the combination of historical dominance, favorable matchup, and a mispriced 1.5 line, he expects the Bills’ quarterback to clear the prop yet again.

Tony Farmer grabbed Josh Allen over 1.5 passing touchdowns at -145 on bet365 after finding other books as high as -154. Allen has tossed 19 TDs in his last seven games versus Miami (playoffs included) and produced 17 of his 28 scores at home last year, a split Farmer expects to hold in prime time. He calls this Miami secondary the weakest Allen has seen — Jason Marshall Jr., Jack Jones and Storm Duck headline a group that just surrendered 30 points to the Jets. With Buffalo laying double digits and the matchup carrying the week’s second-highest total (49.5), Farmer considers two scoring throws a conservative projection and a strong prop at the current price.

Tony Farmer laid -14 on Buffalo at +114 (bet365) and is content with the line now drifting to +125 or -13.5 at similar odds. He cited a stack of trends: the Bills are 11-0 straight-up in their last 11 games at Highmark Stadium, while Miami is 3-7 in its last 10 road games and has not won in Buffalo since 2021. Since the start of 2024, Tua Tagovailoa owns a 15-4 TD-INT line at home but a 7-6 split on the road, reinforcing Farmer’s fade of the Dolphins away from South Florida. Miami’s locker-room turmoil (Tyreek Hill publicly wanting out, Mike McDaniel coaching for his job) and lingering injuries to Darren Waller, Benito Jones, Austin Jackson and Storm Duck add to the bearish thesis. Even with Buffalo missing Ed Oliver and Taron Johnson and monitoring Matt Milano, Farmer expects a repeat of last week’s 30-10 beatdown of the Jets and is comfortable laying a full two touchdowns at plus money.

Joe Osborne advised bettors to grab Buffalo -12.5 (-110 at bet365) for Thursday Night Football. He noted the Bills have hung 71 points through two weeks and rank near the top of the league in yards per play. Miami, by contrast, has surrendered 66 points and sits 30th in third-down defense. Osborne highlighted the dramatic jump in quarterback quality the Dolphins face: after allowing big days to Daniel Jones and Drake Maye, they now meet reigning MVP Josh Allen, who beat Miami by 21 last year and 28 in 2023. Buffalo has cleared 30 points in eight of its last nine regular-season games at Highmark Stadium, enjoys a strong home-field edge, and has no look-ahead spot with New Orleans up next. With that data in mind, Osborne expects another lopsided result and labeled Bills -12.5 his early lean.

Kaylor flagged Tyreek Hill as a must-have ceiling play even though he has not found the end zone yet in 2025. He cited Hill’s Hall-of-Fame resume—808 career catches, 11,247 yards, 82 receiving TDs, plus 819 rushing yards and seven more scores—as proof the explosion is coming. While 2024 showed mild regression (81-959-6), Hill still opened 2025 with 10 grabs for 149 yards at a healthy 14.9 YPC, demonstrating the trademark speed. Facing a Bills secondary that allowed 148 passing yards to Garrett Wilson the week prior, Kaylor expects Hill’s volume and big-play ability to smash his mid-tier Showdown salary and provide tournament-winning upside.

Jimmie Kaylor called Josh Allen the premier building block for Thursday’s single-game DFS contests. He reminded readers that Allen earned 2024 NFL MVP honors by piling up 3,731 passing yards, 28 TDs, only six picks, plus 531 rushing yards and a league-leading 12 rushing scores. Through two weeks of 2025 the production remains elite—542 passing yards, two TDs, zero interceptions and a 98.4 passer rating—while Week 2 showed the ceiling with 59 rushing yards on just six carries against the Jets. With Buffalo installed as 11.5-point home favorites in a 49.5-point total, Kaylor expects a positive game script that still leaves room for Allen’s legs to pad fantasy scoring, giving him both the highest floor and ceiling in Showdown formats.