Guy Boston recommended Cleveland at roughly −130 at home versus Milwaukee. Rookie Logan Henderson looked sharp in his debut against the A’s (6 IP, 1 ER, 9 K) but Boston cautioned that could be debut adrenaline against a weak lineup. Cleveland counters with Gavin Williams, who owns solid ground-ball numbers and has limited the Brewers to a sub-.330 expected wOBA across the few plate appearances he’s seen. Boston argued the Guardians hold clear edges in lineup depth and bullpen reliability; Milwaukee’s bats rank near the bottom third in hard-hit rate. With a better offense, a trustworthy pen and Henderson’s small-sample risk, Boston sees value on the Guardians moneyline and would sprinkle their team total over if the number opens modest.

Bryan Power backed the Brewers’ team-total over 3.5 runs in Cleveland. He acknowledged Milwaukee’s offense is 28th in slugging and 27th in OBP, yet pointed out they still average 4.5 runs per road game. The main angle is fading Guardians rookie Gavin Williams, who has issued nine walks across his last two starts and, in Power’s words, has been ‘getting away with a lot of walks’ that should finally catch up to him. Even with Cleveland’s rotation on a heater, Power thinks Williams’ shaky control plus borderline-stormy weather provide enough runway for Milwaukee to clear four runs over nine innings.

Bryan Power advised betting Milwaukee’s team-total over 3.5 runs despite the Brewers being blanked in the first two games at Progressive Field. Power acknowledged Milwaukee’s ugly season ranks (28th in slugging, 27th in OBP) but reminded listeners that the club still averages 4.5 runs per game on the road. He is betting on regression for rookie right-hander Gavin Williams, who has issued nine walks over his last two starts and has been surviving more on batted-ball luck than missing bats. Power noted that Cleveland’s rotation has been lights-out this week, but Williams’ control issues create traffic that Milwaukee can finally cash in on over a full nine innings. Four runs clears the ticket, and Power is confident the Brewers can reach that modest threshold.

Kenny G said the only thing he trusts in Brewers-Guardians is the total, and he grabbed Under 8.5. His logic is built around weak offenses and quietly solid pitching environments. Cleveland is just 17th in runs and 22nd in batting average, and although Gavin Williams’ 4.38 ERA doesn’t scream ace, he just blanked Philadelphia for five innings with eight strikeouts. The Guardians’ bullpen has regressed but still owns a respectable 3.85 ERA. On the other side, Milwaukee is a mystery on the mound – the starter was still unannounced – but the Brewers are 13-8-2 to the Under on the road, while Cleveland is 12-7-1 to the Under at Progressive Field. Both clubs trend to low-scoring games in these exact venues, so Kenny expects a sluggish, pitching-forward matchup that stays south of nine runs.

He paired the side with an under. Milwaukee has stayed below the total in eight of its last nine and owns nine team-total unders in its past ten. The Brewers have been held scoreless in two straight and have not cracked five runs in any of their last five. Cleveland’s own bats have been quiet—just one run in two recent games vs. Philadelphia—and Gavin Williams spun six shutout frames his last time out. With shaky Brewers sticks and a total of eight, the tout expects another low-scoring affair.

Dylan Rockford also fired on Milwaukee but took the full-game line at +130, pricing the Guardians no shorter than –125 himself. He dislikes Gavin Williams, citing the rookie’s walk rate and inflated WHIP, and noted that Cleveland struggles against southpaws. Quintana’s lone disaster came at Wrigley; otherwise he keeps the ball on the ground. Rockford pointed out Milwaukee’s 18-15 road record and believes the value firmly sits with the underdog Brewers.

Malcolm Bamford said the best way to attack this game is Milwaukee on the first-five moneyline. Jose Quintana has been serviceable outside of one blow-up against the Cubs, while Guardians rookie Gavin Williams owns a 1.73 WHIP and issues far too many free passes. Cleveland is batting only .217 against left-handers, and the Brewers are 16-9 in the first five innings versus right-handed pitching. Those factors, coupled with Williams’s control problems, led Bamford to back Milwaukee early before bullpens enter the equation.

Rob Donaldson advised grabbing Milwaukee at +1 on the full-game line for four units. He noted that Cleveland starter Gavin Williams is surrendering a ton of hard contact, making him a perfect get-right opponent for a Brewers lineup that has been scuffling to score. On the other side, Jose Cantana was scratched for Milwaukee, forcing a bullpen game. Donaldson believes that uncertainty has pushed the run line too far toward Cleveland and is creating value on the Brewers with a one-run buffer. He framed the wager as a pure price play built on the Guardians’ vulnerable starter and Milwaukee’s still-strong pitching staff keeping them in every game.

Cash Out Sports Picks recommended the Guardians money line for the series finale. Cleveland has blanked Milwaukee in back-to-back games (5–0, 2–0) and draws rookie Logan Henderson for just his second big-league start. Milwaukee owns the fourth-worst slugging percentage versus right-handers and its bullpen remains unreliable. Gavin Williams brings two straight quality outings into Wednesday and faces a Brewers lineup that has not scored more than four runs in its last five games. With Cleveland playing the more complete baseball, he expects a clean sweep.

Joe Pisapia called "shenanigans" on the Brewers’ explanation that Brandon Woodruff’s additional rehab start is strictly due to ankle tendinitis. Pisapia is worried because Woodruff’s fastball sat just 90–91 mph in his last rehab appearance—well below his typical 95 mph—and he suspects a potential dead-arm period or lingering shoulder trouble. While acknowledging that an ankle issue could sap push-off power, Pisapia advised fantasy managers to keep Woodruff on the bench until the velocity returns, warning that investing heavily in injured pitchers always carries hidden risk.

Francis played Cleveland on the money line versus Milwaukee. His reasoning: the Guardians have won six straight against NL Central clubs, rookie left-hander Logan Allen gives them the superior arm, and Milwaukee’s presumed starter (he mis-pronounced Peralta) has been shaky. Add in Cleveland’s solid home record and he felt the Guards should be favored.

Kenny G recommended taking Under 9 runs in Brewers-Guardians. He outlined that Milwaukee has scored 0, 4, 2, 3 and 1 runs in its last five while sitting 28th in slugging percentage and 23rd in team batting average. Cleveland is only 17th in runs scored and 22nd in both OBP and batting average. Unders have cashed in 13-8-2 Milwaukee road games and 12-7-1 Cleveland home games. Although Quinn Priester (5.08 ERA, Brewers 0-4 in his last four starts) and Logan Allen (4.33 ERA) are not aces, the combination of two cold lineups and pitcher-friendly trends makes a nine-run total feel a tad high. Kenny acknowledged the bullpen fatigue on the Guardians’ side but still viewed a low-scoring script as the most likely outcome.

Lonte Smith also backed Cleveland at –125. He acknowledged Allen’s elevated walk rate but pointed out the Brewers slug just .333 versus southpaws, limiting the damage those free passes can create. Priester has issued 3+ walks in three straight and is coming off his worst start of the year versus St. Louis. Smith added that the Guardians’ bullpen—shaky in April—is ‘rounding back into form,’ giving them a decisive late-inning edge. With Cleveland’s lineup far more competent against right-handers than Milwaukee’s is against left-handers, Smith called the price ‘cheap.’

Malcolm Bamford laid the –125 with Cleveland. His case: Quinn Priester owns a 5.08 ERA, 1.66 WHIP and has been pounded in two straight road outings, while Logan Allen’s ugly surface line is inflated by a single blow-up; remove that clunker and his ERA drops below 3.50. Cleveland is 12-7 at home, wins 64% of its games versus right-handed pitching, and Milwaukee ranks bottom-10 in wRC+ against lefties. Bamford trusts Allen’s deeper arsenal and likes the Guardians’ strong bullpen to slam the door once Priester inevitably puts traffic on the bases.

Kenny G gave a slight but actionable lean to Cleveland at –125. The Guardians are 13-7 at Progressive Field while Milwaukee is a brutal 8-15 on the road. Quinn Priester’s 5.08 ERA and the Brewers’ 0-4 record over his last four starts worry Kenny, especially with a shaky 4.63 bullpen ERA behind him. Offensively Milwaukee ranks 28th in slugging and has produced three runs or fewer in four of its last five games. Cleveland’s lineup is merely average, yet that home edge paired with the Brewers’ travel woes and pitching disadvantage made –125 fair value in Kenny’s eyes.

It's The Final Round flagged Steven Kwan as another strong hit/total-base play versus Quinn Priester. Priester’s No. 1 pitch, the sinker (34 % usage), is getting hammered (.364 BA, 4 hits in 11 ABs). Kwan is obliterating sinkers at .471 (8-for-17, 1 HR). Priester’s cutter (26 %) is even worse (.417 BA allowed) and Kwan sports a ridiculous .667 mark (4-for-6, HR). The curveball is Priester’s only decent pitch (.143 BA allowed) yet he still surrendered a homer there, and Kwan is 2-for-3 off curves in 2024. Kwan has hits in eight of his last nine games and lives in the optimal 8-32° launch-angle window 41.3 % of the time (25th/265). Priester lets hitters get into that window 28.3 % (73rd/358). Add it all up and the tout expects Kwan to keep racking up hits against a profile tailor-made for his contact skills.

He also played the full-game over. Milwaukee games average 8.9 runs overall and a massive 9.81 on the road thanks to a 4.95-run road offense. Cleveland home games average 7.16 runs, but both starters have been gas cans recently (ERAs 7+ over last three, WHIPs above 2) and the Brewers’ bullpen is unreliable. Given the Guardians’ own 4.1 runs per game and the shaky pitching on both sides, the tout expects this to turn into a "slug-fest" that sails past the posted total.

Cash Out Sports Picks backed the Cleveland Guardians on the money line. He pointed out that both starters are carrying ERAs north of 5.00 and have been torched in their last three outings (ERAs over 7.00, WHIPs above 2.00, zero combined wins). Milwaukee is just 8-14 on the road and rolls in with an unreliable bullpen, while former Pirate Quinn Priester was "lit up" the last time he saw Cleveland. With the Guardians at home on Lake Erie and the Brewers reeling after a rough weekend, the tout expects Cleveland to "handle their business" and grab Game 2.

JD Bets backed Cleveland +1.5 runs at -152 because Milwaukee’s offense is in a deep funk. He highlighted that the Brewers are hitting just .181 over their last 10 games and averaging 2.5 runs in that span, while Cleveland is averaging 5.0. Wind is blowing out at nine mph in Cleveland, offering the Guardians extra pop if the rain holds off. Starting matchup of Freddy Peralta versus Ben Lively looks like a wash on the mound, but JD trusts Cleveland’s deeper lineup (Jose Ramirez and Steven Kwan swinging well) against a Milwaukee order where only Rhys Hoskins is producing. With Cleveland at home and Milwaukee ranked bottom-three in almost every recent batting metric, he advised fading the Brewers’ bats and taking the Guardians on the run line.

Guy Boston said Cleveland is a playable under-dog because Freddie Peralta’s road splits are far shakier than his overall numbers (5.05 road FIP, 12 % walk rate, 1.22 WHIP). Peralta also owns a pronounced platoon issue – he dominates righties but struggles versus left-handed bats, and the Guardians will roll out six switch-hitters from the left side. Ben Lively has quietly allowed 1-or-0 earned runs in three of his past four starts, giving Cleveland a fighting chance. Boston acknowledged Lively is due for some regression yet believes any damage is likely offset by Cleveland’s on-base profile against Peralta. With plus-money available, he leaned Guardians and paired it with the full-game over because both pitchers could issue free passes and Cleveland’s bullpen was used heavily the night before.

Guy Boston recommended betting Freddy Peralta under 4.5 hits allowed at ‑135 on DraftKings. Peralta has stayed below this number in 6 of 8 starts (75%) while surrendering only four hits per outing. The right-hander also hit the under 64% of the time a year ago and limited Cleveland to exactly four knocks in their lone 2024 meeting. Underlying metrics back the play: Peralta sits in the 88th percentile for opponent batting average (.196) and owns a 2.18 ERA, 80th-percentile BABIP suppression, 79th-percentile strikeout rate, and 90th-percentile hard-hit avoidance. Cleveland’s offense is a plus matchup, ranking 23rd in average (.239) versus righties with bottom-10 marks in BABIP and hard-hit rate both season-long and over the past 30 games. With weak contact expected and friendly odds, Boston labeled the under a strong value prop.

Kenny G said the value sits with Cleveland at +115 and circled them as a potential Dog of the Day. His reasoning: Ben Lively has delivered three quality outings in his last four and gave up only one run on two hits against Washington. Milwaukee counters with Freddy Peralta, who owns a sharp 2.18 ERA but is nursing a groin issue and hands the game to a Brewers bullpen carrying a 4.65 ERA. Kenny emphasized that both pens are shaky, but Cleveland’s 12-7 home record and the plus-money price outweigh Peralta’s edge. The Guardians’ lineup has been streaky, yet Steven Kwan is batting .331 and the club has posted 9 runs twice in its last six, giving them enough punch to capitalize once Peralta exits.

Lonte Smith went the opposite direction, grabbing Cleveland at +115. He pointed out that Ben Lively has allowed one run or fewer in three of his last four starts at Progressive Field and that the Guardians are 10-4 at home overall. Milwaukee’s lineup has scored three runs or fewer in six of its last ten games, and Freddy Peralta is dealing with a minor groin strain. Cleveland’s offense has produced five-plus runs in six of the past seven, so Lonte thinks the home dog is live despite Peralta’s reputation.

Scott Reichel said the only way he wants action in Brewers-Guardians is the Milwaukee first-five moneyline. Freddy Peralta’s 2.18 ERA and 30% strike-out rate give Milwaukee a clear matchup edge over Ben Lively, who sits at 3.46 but owns shaky underlying metrics that scream regression. Reichel refuses to trust the Brewers bullpen (4.44 ERA) and thinks both offenses start slowly, so isolating Peralta’s innings avoids late-game chaos. He also leans to an under 8.0 but the official play is Brewers F5 −135 or better.

Drew Martin backed the Cleveland Guardians at +118, citing several edges. Ben Lively has rewarded bettors in each of his last four turns, most recently holding Washington to two hits and one earned run. Cleveland remains home after Sunday Night Baseball while Milwaukee travels in after dropping three of four to Tampa. Martin highlighted how Freddie Peralta’s skipped start for a groin issue and his drastic 0.47 ERA at home versus 10 earned runs and 13 walks on the road this month create a prime fade spot. With the Brewers’ bats scuffling and the Guardians swinging well against right-handed pitching, Martin wants the live home dog and is risking 100 to win 118.