Guy Boston Sports laid the small number (-120) on the Yankees over the visiting Dodgers. The edge starts on the mound: Max Fried holds current LA hitters to a .201 average with a 27 % K-rate over 203 plate appearances, whereas Tony Gonsolin’s career 4.34 xFIP versus New York’s projected lineup and diminished slider velocity make him vulnerable. More importantly, the Dodgers’ bullpen is a mash unit—‘seven relievers on the IL, most of whom would be high-leverage on other clubs’—so even if Fried exits early the Yankees still enjoy a pitching edge for all nine frames. Offensively both teams are elite, forcing Guy to ‘lean over out of fear,’ but he believes New York’s healthier relief corps and Fried’s current form swing the game. He projected a 6-4 Yankees win and locked them in at anything up to ‑125.

Kenny G is laying the −135 with New York because Max Fried’s 7-0, 1.29 ERA campaign gives the Yankees a massive mound advantage over Tony Gonsolin. Fried has surrendered just five earned runs in five starts (35⅔ IP) and is backed by MLB’s 5th-best bullpen (3.25 ERA). The Yankee offense—3rd in runs, 1st in OBP—may only need a handful against a Dodgers pen that owns a below-average 3.98 ERA. Gonsolin (2-1, 4.68) has been tagged by the Angels and Mets in consecutive outings, and Los Angeles has dropped both. The Dodgers still rate 2nd in runs and OBP, but recent outputs of 4-9-7-1-2 illustrate volatility, and Kenny noted they are just 17-10 to the OVER at Chavez Ravine, hinting at run leakage from their relievers. New York, conversely, is 17-11 on the road and currently riding a five-game winning streak after sweeping the Angels. Add in Aaron Judge’s 18 HRs and .391 average plus Shohei Ohtani’s heater pushing totals higher, and Kenny feels the moneyline is the cleaner play than the 8.5/9 total. In short: elite form Fried + deeper bullpen = Yankees buy spot.

Mark made the Dodgers +1.5 runs at -140 a full-unit play, emphasizing how seldom bettors see Los Angeles catching a run at anything under -150. The Yankees send Cy Young frontrunner Max Fried (7–0, 1.29 ERA) to the hill, which is inflating the price in Mark’s view. He framed this as a pride game for LA and even sprinkled the Dodgers’ money line at +115, predicting Tony Gonsolin can match Fried long enough for the Dodgers’ bullpen and lineup depth to cash. Mark reminded listeners that bookmakers only need balanced action, not predictive accuracy, and thinks public love for Fried has shoved the value squarely onto the Dodgers’ side.

Despite a rare day without a bomb on Wednesday, Lindquist still wants an Ohtani HR ticket Friday if books hang +280 or longer. The slugger went deep Sunday, Monday and Tuesday, owns a 65% hard-hit rate over that stretch, and gets warm L.A. hitting weather. Ohtani’s 20 HR already pace baseball, and Lindquist noted the day-off reset tends to precede another power surge. He will wait for odds to settle but expects plus-280 to be an autoplay in both betting and one-off DFS builds.

Chris Ruffolo advised taking the Yankees on the money line in L.A. because every core matchup angle favors New York. Max Fried is in Cy Young form, carrying a 1.29 ERA and a perfect 7-0 record through 70 innings. The Yankees are 10-1 in his starts, and the lone loss required 11 innings. Ruffolo highlighted that the Dodgers have slipped back into their early-season funk against left-handed pitching, hitting just .217 with a .602 OPS and bottom-10 ISO over the last two weeks. Meanwhile, New York’s bullpen sports a 2.00 ERA over the past week, whereas the Dodgers’ relief corps sits near 4.00 and has been "inconsistent at best." On the other side, Tony Gonsolin enters with a 6.30 ERA in two home starts and has issued more walks (8) than strikeouts (7) over his last two outings. With L.A. likely leaning on that shaky bullpen after five innings, Ruffolo sees value in the Yankees despite the unusual plus-money price on the home Dodgers and calls it a spot where "it’s that way for a reason."

Jay Yang said to take the Yankees at -135 on the road because the matchup lines up across several angles. He noted the Dodgers’ offense has "been trending down" while the Yankees arrive with momentum and view this as a statement, revenge spot after last year’s postseason exit. The pitching matchup is the core of his handicap: Max Fried gives New York "a clear edge" over Tony Gonsolin. Even if Fried falters, Yang trusts the Yankees’ deeper lineup to pick up the slack. He assigns the emotional revenge angle roughly 10-15 % of his weighting—enough to tip the scale when it aligns with the statistical and situational advantages. Yang advised bettors to make sure both listed pitchers (Fried and Gonsolin) go, then lock in Yankees moneyline as his complimentary play.

Lonte Smith reluctantly grabbed the Dodgers at +115, arguing the price is too tempting even with Max Fried in peak form. Los Angeles ranks near the top of MLB in wRC+ versus left-handed pitching, and Smith expects some regression from Fried once he faces this caliber of lineup. While Tony Gonsolin’s recent line (eight walks, eight earned over nine innings) is ugly, his career 3.21 ERA suggests better days, and the Yankees’ offense has been scuffling—just a .392 slugging percentage over the last ten despite sweeping the Angels. Smith sees a tight 2-1 finish either way, so he is pairing Dodgers ML down to +110 with Under 8.5 at –105 or better.

Scott Reichel locked in the Yankees at –105 on the opener and still likes them at –130 with undefeated Max Fried (7-0, 0.83 road ERA) facing Tony Gonsolin, who sports a 6.30 ERA at Dodger Stadium and eight walks plus eight earned runs in his last two outings. Reichel also cited New York’s nine straight series wins and the Dodgers’ volatile bullpen that has repeatedly coughed up late leads. Expecting a playoff-style duel, he grabbed Under 8.5 at +110, projecting a 4-2 Yankee victory and recommending the under at any plus number.

Harrelson called Teoscar Hernandez his favorite play, backing him to eclipse 1.5 combined hits, runs, and RBIs. Hernandez has cashed this prop in 7 of his last 10 and three straight, plus 15 of the last 20 (75%). Against the Yankees he’s hit in 5 of 8 meetings this season and 63% across his last 18 matchups. On the year he is 26-for-42 (62%) overall. Crucially, the slugger is torching left-handers, batting a ridiculous .459 versus southpaws compared to .305 overall. Even though he’s only 2-for-10 lifetime versus Friday’s starter Max Fried, Harrelson trusts the current form—Hernandez has sailed over in 14 of his last 18. The market agrees, with DraftKings at –130 and Sleeper as high as –149 on the over.

Drew Martin made his best bet the Yankees at –130 in L.A. He highlighted New York’s scorching form—35-20 overall, winners of five straight and 9-1 in their last ten—and a favorable scheduling spot: the club remained in Southern California after sweeping the Angels, whereas the Dodgers are playing their first home game after a week-long road trip. On the hill, Max Fried is 7-0 with a 1.29 ERA and a 67-16 K/BB through 11 starts, never allowing more than two earned runs in any outing. Dodgers right-hander Tony Gonsolin, still ramping up after an injury-delayed season debut, has logged only four and five innings in his last two starts while posting a troubling 7-to-8 K/BB and surrendering four runs in each. With the Yankees owning MLB’s No. 1 offense against right-handed pitching, Martin expects Gonsolin to struggle and advised locking in New York before the line drifts beyond –140.

Even with the Yankees installed as –132 favorites, Data Skrive projected a 50/50 win probability and a 6-5 Dodgers victory, creating perceived value on Los Angeles at +113. Supporting notes included: the Dodgers’ only other game as a +113 or longer dog resulted in a win, while the Yankees have played exceptionally well as favorites (9-1 last ten) — a run the model pegs as unsustainable given their modest 4.7 runs per game and looming bullpen regression. Meanwhile, L.A.’s lineup is surging behind Shohei Ohtani (MLB-leading 20 HR) and Freddie Freeman’s .359 average. Bettors comfortable fading an inflated Yankees tax can grab the Dodgers moneyline or +1.5 runs at –145.

Data Skrive’s projection engine spit out a 6-5 final in Los Angeles and labeled the 9-run total too low. Their write-up pointed to several pace-up indicators: the Dodgers have cashed the over in six of their last ten, the Yankees and Dodgers combine to average 9.3 runs per game (4.7 for New York, 4.6 for L.A.), and both clubs rank top-10 in homers during that stretch (Yankees 10, Dodgers 11). Despite New York’s stingy 1.82 staff ERA over the past ten, the model expects regression with both bullpens trending toward the middle on xFIP. DraftKings and most shops have the over juiced to –109, making it a playable number before it creeps to 9.5.

LM Tipster said the Yankees moneyline is the best way to attack Friday’s marquee matchup because Max Fried has been untouchable (7-0, 1.29 ERA) since putting on the pinstripes. Tony Gonsolin’s 4.68 ERA and middling 2-1 record give Los Angeles a clear pitching disadvantage, and New York’s league-best 23-9 road record suggests they can handle Dodger Stadium. The handicap leans on Fried’s 32% strikeout rate and the Dodgers’ recent 26% K-rate versus southpaws.

LM Tipster played Aaron Judge over 1.5 total bases, noting he owns a .704 SLG and averages 2.1 bases per game against right-handers. Tony Gonsolin is surrendering a career-worst .480 xSLG and relies heavily on a splitter Judge has slugged .750 against this season. With warm L.A. weather boosting carry, LM expects at least a double or a pair of singles from the Yankee captain.

Scott Reichel urged bettors to avoid Los Angeles World Series and NL pennant futures until the pitching staff is repaired. With Blake Snell likely shelved for the season, Roki Sasaki on the IL, Tyler Glasnow’s bullpen session ‘didn’t feel good,’ and Clayton Kershaw working his way back at diminished velocity, Reichel sees only Yoshinobu Yamamoto as a reliable starter. The bullpen has fallen from 2nd to 20th in WAR year-over-year, and injury-return options like Tony Gonsolin and Dustin May have been shelled (combined 6.12 ERA). Reichel expects president Andrew Friedman to trade for arms but believes the current roster is ‘not good enough to win the title’ and projects a repeat of last year’s early playoff exit. He recommends waiting for post-deadline clarity or targeting teams like Atlanta and Philadelphia in the futures market instead.