Kenny G advised laying the –130 with Philadelphia, highlighting Zack Wheeler’s 2.39 ERA and 10-strikeout last outing as the stabilizing force. Over his past five starts Wheeler has posted a 2.05 FIP and only one real blemish (the odd San Diego hiccup). The Phillies’ offense is humming—run totals of 9, 12, 8, 4, and 3 in their last five—and they rank fifth in MLB batting average. Meanwhile New York has lost three straight, owns just a 4.32 bullpen ERA after a second-half collapse, and will be without Aaron Judge (IL, flexor strain). Carlos Rodon’s control deserted him against Toronto (5 walks in 5 IP) and Kenny doubts a sudden turnaround. Both clubs skew under, but he prefers backing the hotter team fighting for the NL East crown. His play: Phillies moneyline.

Cash Out Sports Picks favored Philadelphia on the money line behind Zack Wheeler’s road excellence (2.89 ERA, .201 BAA in 56 IP) and recent dominance—just seven earned over his last 46 innings, including scoreless outings versus San Diego and Houston. The Yankees have lost ground in the AL East, are 5.5 games behind Toronto, and will be without Aaron Judge for the series finale. Though Carlos Rodon owns a solid stretch (2 ER in his previous 13 IP), New York’s offense is sputtering, making Wheeler and the surging Phillies lineup (Kyle Schwarber homered twice Friday) the stronger play even at Yankee Stadium.

B Wade recommended Jazz Chisholm over 1.5 total bases instead of the more common H + R + RBI prop. Chisholm has topped the total-bases line in five of his last seven games and owns a .353 average (6-for-17) with two homers in an extensive history against Zack Wheeler. Crucially, five of those six hits against Wheeler have been for extra bases, meaning a single double or long ball likely cashes the ticket. Wade prefers isolating total bases because run production is less certain against the stingy Phillies ace, but Chisholm’s penchant for gap power gives bettors an edge.

B Wade said Kyle Schwarber is a solid bet to smash the 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs line against Carlos Rodon. Schwarber has cleared that number in six of eight games since the All-Star break, and he owns a tidy .300 average (3-for-10) with a homer off Rodon in his career. Wade added that Schwarber is still riding the momentum from winning All-Star Game MVP and the Home Run Challenge, noting the added confidence can translate into another multi-contribution box-score day. All signs—recent form, favorable historical split and the hitter-friendly Yankee ballpark—point to Schwarber eclipsing the prop.

Drew Martin said the only side he can play in the Bronx is Philadelphia because Zack Wheeler is simply dealing right now. Wheeler comes in at 9-3 with a 2.30 ERA and a ridiculous 164-to-26 K/BB ratio, numbers Martin called "one of the best out there." Carlos Rodon, meanwhile, has walked five in his most recent start, owns long-standing control issues, and has surrendered 11 runs over his last three outings. Martin expects Wheeler’s current form to carry the day and thinks the price will stay reasonable since the Yankees are at home, making the Phillies a buy.

Kenny G said Ranger Suarez is a strong buy-low today at –120 after two shaky outings. Suarez still owns a 2.66 ERA on the season and draws a Yankees lineup that has produced just 19 total runs over its last five games. Kenny highlighted New York’s unraveling bullpen (4.28 ERA) and the club’s 29-19-1 home under record as evidence that scoring support will be limited. Meanwhile the Phillies’ offense has exploded for 29 runs in its last four contests and ranks top-10 in OBP and batting average. With Suarez in line for a bounce-back and Marcus Stroman sporting a 5.64 ERA, Kenny recommended taking Philadelphia on the moneyline despite the road setting.

The Bettor Mark said he would come back on the Yankees at +102 after Friday’s loss to Philadelphia. He noted that New York, Los Angeles and Philadelphia sit 1-2-3 in home runs and most major offensive categories over the last seven days, evidence that the Bronx Bombers’ bats are clicking. With Ranger Suarez facing Marcus Stroman, Mark anticipates another high-scoring game and believes the only angles worth betting are Yankees plus money or the total Over 9.5/9. The matchup fits his ‘runs or nothing’ mantra, and he views the bounce-back spot and favorable price as too good to pass up for Yankee backers.

Cash Out Sports Picks backed the Philadelphia Phillies money line because Ranger Suarez has been dominant on the road (1.47 ERA, .192 opponent average and a quality start in all seven away outings) while Marcus Stroman owns a bulky 6.46 ERA and 1.70 WHIP across only 15.1 Yankee-Stadium innings. The tout argued that the Phillies' bats can match New York's production, so the clear pitching edge justifies taking Philadelphia in what books list as a near pick’em.

Bill Harrelson said to take JT Realmuto for more than 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs against the Yankees because the veteran catcher is scorching. He has cashed this number in eight of his last ten games and seven of his last eight, including a two-hit, one-run, three-RBI explosion in the series opener with New York. Over his last eight contests he is averaging 2.9 combined HRR on 4.3 plate appearances. Books such as Fliff, DraftKings, Hard Rock, and Sleeper have already juiced the over. Harrelson added that Realmuto owns a .308 average versus right-handers (well above his .269 overall mark) and a .304/.333 slash in 24 career plate appearances against Saturday starter Marcus Stroman. The season-long hit rate is only 51 %, but the current form, matchup splits, and market support made Harrelson confident in the over.

Brad Pick Dawgz grabbed the Yankees at plus money, leaning on two data points. First, New York has won five consecutive games as an underdog versus Philadelphia. Second, Ranger Suarez’s recent form has cratered—Brad noted the Phillies’ lefty was "smacked up" in each of his last two starts. Because Philadelphia is a noticeably weaker club away from Citizens Bank Park, Brad expects the sputtering Suarez to be vulnerable again and believes the Yankees’ lineup can exploit him for another upset victory.

Scott Reichel grabbed Philadelphia at +128, calling the Yankees’ –150 tag ‘insane’ given their current warts. Taijuan Walker owns a 2.19 ERA on the road and a 3.75 mark overall, more than serviceable against rookie Will Warren’s 4.91 season ERA. Reichel hammered New York’s flaws: a leaky defense (second-worst Outs Above Average), a bullpen missing key arms with Jonathan Loaisiga struggling and Scott Effross recently shelled, and overreliance on Devin Williams in save situations. The Yankees’ lineup has also been inconsistent, batting just .231 over the last two weeks. With Philly still playing solid baseball despite an extra-inning loss in Boston, Reichel made the Phillies the better side straight up and said he would price New York closer to –125, making the current number a value grab on the visitors.

Kenny G suggested taking the Phillies at +135 in the Bronx. He expects Taijuan Walker (3.75 ERA) to rebound from a shaky four-inning outing against the Angels, noting New York’s bats have cooled to just 4, 5 and 1 runs in their last three despite ranking first in slugging over the season. The Yankees counter with rookie Will Warren, who owns a 4.91 ERA and just yielded five earned in 3.2 innings versus Atlanta, plus a bullpen that has drifted north of a 4.00 ERA. Philadelphia’s relief corps is also leaky, but the club is 32-17-1 to the under on the road—evidence they keep games close. With bookmakers installing New York as -155 favorites in spite of their pitching woes, Kenny feels the situational value lies with the visiting Phillies.

Lindquist targeted a Nick Castellanos home-run prop at an opening number he felt was off at Bet365. While public bettors will gravitate to Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper against rookie right-hander Will Warren in Yankee Stadium, Lindquist argued that pricing fails to account for Castellanos’ similar underlying power profile (11.1 % barrel rate) and Warren’s 1.6 HR/9 in Triple-A. Because the market bakes premium vig into Schwarber and Harper, Castellanos delivers the better price-to-probability edge. Lindquist emphasized that long-term profit comes from betting undervalued sluggers rather than the obvious names, and expects the number to shorten once sharper books copy Bet365’s opener.

Eric Lindquist recommended betting Nick Castellanos to homer at Yankee Stadium versus rookie right-hander Will Warren. Bet365’s early open gave him an advance look at numbers and he felt Castellanos was mis-priced relative to Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper, whose odds are routinely juiced by name value. Castellanos still owns a 13.2% barrel rate and a pulled-fly-ball profile that plays in Yankee Stadium’s short left-field porch, while Warren projects for league-average strikeouts with command issues (10% walk rate at Triple-A). Lindquist emphasized his price-versus-probability philosophy, arguing that over 162 games the Castellanos number will be profitable even if Schwarber or Harper go deep on this particular night.

Just A Bet Outside doubled-down on his preseason stance that Zack Wheeler is the best futures ticket for the 2024 NL Cy Young. He bought additional contracts at 47¢ on CallSheet and told listeners that Wheeler’s path is clearing: primary rival Paul Skenes is expected to face tighter inning and pitch-count limits down the stretch, while voters historically lean toward proven veterans when the race is close. With Philadelphia continuing to give Wheeler run-support and the right-hander ranking top-3 in the league in fWAR and innings pitched since the break, the tout believes the current price understates Wheeler’s true probability and advised locking it in before sportsbooks react.