Derek Carty’s THE BAT X projects a 66% hit rate for UNDER 2.5 earned runs (-160) on Drew Rasmussen. Chase Field grades as the worst HR venue (No. 30) in Carty’s park factors, and Arizona’s contact-oriented lineup ranks just 18th in ISO. Rasmussen’s heavy cutter/slider mix keeps the ball on the ground, amplifying the park’s suppressive effect. The bet carries a +$12.33 expected value per unit risked.

Zola urged fantasy managers to sit Corbin Burnes on Thursday despite the name value. Burnes has recorded just three strikeouts in each of his last three starts, extending a four-year slide in K-rate. Both his two-seamer and cutter are averaging 1+ mph less than 2024. The matchup offers no relief: Tampa Bay owns one of baseball’s lowest strikeout rates. Until the velocity returns and he proves he can miss bats again, Burnes is too risky for lineups or DFS cash games.

Kenny G gave a modest endorsement to Arizona at –135 even though Drew Rasmussen has been lights-out (0.87 ERA, no more than one earned allowed in any start). His reasoning: the Diamondbacks’ lineup is third in MLB in runs, slugging, and OBP and should eventually crack Rasmussen, while Corbin Burnes looked back on track last time out (6 IP, 2 ER). Tampa’s sticks are sputtering—19th in runs and scoreless in two of their last three games—and they are winless on the road. Arizona’s bullpen sits mid-pack at 4.21 but Kenny trusts the offense to paper over that weakness. He labeled it only a “small lean” because Rasmussen’s early-season dominance is real, yet still feels the market is shorting a D-backs club that is 7-4 at home and 14-9 overall.

Lindquist grabbed Under 4.5 runs (first five innings) at –125 in Rays–Diamondbacks, citing a sneaky pitchers’ duel. He threw out Corbin Burnes’ tiny early-season sample and focused on his 2024 profile—3.34 xERA, 23.1 % K-rate—and reminded viewers Burnes just spun a Wrigley gem before Chicago’s bullpens turned the game into a track meet. Drew Rasmussen counters with elite contact suppression (0.301 expected slugging so far, 1.97 xERA in last year’s limited work) and historically keeps the ball in the yard when the roof is closed. With both clubs sending their aces, Lindquist expects managers to ride them deep and sees a market over-reacting to the wild Cubs game. He is comfortable laying modest juice as long as the hook remains.

Chris Welsh smashed Eduardo Rodriguez’s strikeout over (5.5) at +110, noting the lefty has punched out 21 batters over his last 12 innings and now faces a Rays lineup striking out 25% of the time versus southpaws. Rodriguez’s whiff rate on the changeup jumped to 37% in that span, while Tampa ranks bottom‑five in OPS against the pitch type. Welsh projected 6‑8 Ks and said he would play the ladder up to 7+ (+210) for a sprinkle.

Guy Boston said the simplest way to play Diamondbacks‑Rays is to back Arizona on the money line and sprinkle their team‑total over. His cap hinges on two matchup angles: Taj Bradley’s drastic home/road split—he has looked ‘far different’ outside the Trop—and Tampa Bay’s continuing inability to hit left‑handed pitching. Eduardo Rodriguez brings that left arm, and even in a so‑so season Boston trusts him to neutralize the Rays, whose lineup has produced only soft contact against southpaws all month. Both bullpens are rested, so he is comfortable extending the wager to the full game rather than isolating the first five. If bettors want extra exposure, he recommends pairing the D‑Backs ML with a Tampa Bay team‑total under to capture both sides of the split.

Francis played under 5.5 strikeouts on Eduardo Rodriguez, noting the left‑hander has stayed below that number in three of his last five starts. Tampa Bay’s projected lineup owns the league’s second‑lowest K‑rate versus southpaws (17.9%), and Rodriguez’s swinging‑strike percentage has dipped to 9.6% across his previous two outings. Brad expects Arizona to manage his workload again after he threw just 83 pitches last start, limiting the ceiling for punch‑outs.

The tout also bet the full‑game over, citing that Eduardo Rodriguez has surrendered at least three runs in every start this season and that Taj Bradley’s erratic control (10 walks in his last 16.1 IP) makes him ripe for another blow‑up. Arizona’s offense is humming behind Josh Naylor, Geraldo Perdomo, Corbin Carroll, and Pavin Smith, while Tampa Bay’s bullpen has been the only reliable unit for the Rays but figures to be taxed by Bradley’s inefficiency. With both teams capable of putting crooked numbers on the board and Chase Field boosting run scoring, Cash Out Sports Picks expects the total to clear.

Cash Out Sports Picks took the Diamondbacks money line because Arizona is red‑hot, winning nine of its last twelve, while Tampa Bay has dropped six of seven and scored one run or fewer in four of those defeats. The tout pointed to the matchup edge: rookie Taj Bradley has been rocked for 16 hits, 11 earned runs, and 10 walks over his last 16.1 innings, whereas veteran Eduardo Rodriguez has allowed only three earned runs across his past 11.2 frames and is trending up. Arizona owns a .792 OPS and 118 wRC+ versus right‑handed pitching over the last ten days, while Tampa Bay’s lineup shows just a .644 OPS and 99 wRC+ against lefties in that span. Given the Diamondbacks’ better current form and platoon advantage, the host side was labeled a fair price.

Kyle Purviance recommended betting Under 8.5 (+102) in the Rays–Diamondbacks matchup. Purviance noted that Taj Bradley’s 28% career whiff rate and Eduardo Rodriguez’s 1.06 WHIP last season give both starters the ability to work deep and suppress crooked numbers. He is unimpressed by Tampa Bay’s current lineup—ranking 27th in MLB in wOBA over the last two weeks—and pointed out that Arizona has scored three runs or fewer in four of its past six. With two top‑12 bullpens by ERA waiting behind the starters, Purviance thinks the market is overreacting to Chase Field’s reputation and sees plus money on the under as the clear value side.

For Rays‑Diamondbacks, Savio played Over 9 at ‑105. Tampa’s Taj Bradley has cratered to a 6.06 ERA in three April starts and just surrendered six runs on nine hits and four walks. He now faces an Arizona order ranked third in MLB OPS (.783) and averaging 5.7 runs over its last ten contests. Eduardo Rodriguez (1‑2, 4.09 ERA, 1.36 WHIP) opposes him but has been smoke‑and‑mirrors; his last outing featured ten hits in 5 1⁄3 innings versus light‑hitting Miami. With both pitchers allowing constant traffic and Chase Field’s run‑friendly environment, Savio projects double‑digit scoring and an easy cash on the 9‑run total.

Kenny G recommended backing the Arizona Diamondbacks at ‑155 on the moneyline against Tampa Bay. His confidence hinges on three angles: (1) Brandon Pfaadt has quietly gone 3‑0 over his last three outings, signaling the sophomore right‑hander has figured things out; (2) the Rays have yet to win a road game (0‑3) and their starter — Kenny’s self‑proclaimed "twin brother" — was roughed up in his lone road turn at Texas; (3) despite a brief cold spell, the D‑backs remain 3rd in MLB in runs scored and 4th in on‑base percentage, with Corbin Carroll and Josh Naylor both hot. Kenny acknowledged the bullpen’s regression to a 4.38 ERA but noted Arizona is still 6‑4 at Chase Field and projects the stronger lineup/support behind Pfaadt. With a game total of 9 and the Snakes sitting at .500 to the over, he is comfortable swallowing the moderate juice for what he calls a "straightforward" home favorite play.

Kenny G singled out Brandon Pfaadt’s "record a win" prop as a worthwhile side bet. Pfaadt is undefeated in his last three starts (3‑0) and has the statistical tailwind of facing a Rays club that is 0‑3 away from Tropicana Field. Tampa’s starter was rocked in his only road appearance, so Kenny expects Arizona’s lineup — 3rd in runs and 4th in OBP league‑wide — to provide ample run support, especially with Corbin Carroll already flashing All‑Star form. While he admits the Snakes’ bullpen ERA has settled at a more mortal 4.38, Kenny believes Pfaadt can reach the sixth inning and hand off a lead. He framed the prop as a plus‑money way to leverage his broader conviction that Arizona takes the game, calling it "very reasonable" given current form and matchup dynamics.

Lindquist is waiting for books to post Corbin Carroll’s homer odds but plans another quarter‑unit if the number opens better than +315. Carroll owns a 56.7 % hard‑hit rate and a 16.7° average launch angle, traits that play even louder with the Chase Field roof likely open Tuesday night. He draws righty Zach Lattel, who is living in the zone and carrying only a 19 % whiff rate. Add Brandon Pfaadt’s vulnerability in the opposing dugout and Lindquist sees a mini slugfest from the left‑handed stars, projecting Carroll at roughly +280 fair odds for a long ball.

Eric Lindquist sprinkled a quarter‑unit on Jonathan Aranda to homer at +425 in Chase Field. The left‑handed slugger is smoking baseballs with a 60.8 % hard‑hit rate and a 14.2° average launch angle, ideal for exploiting the short porches when the roof is open (the total sits at 9, hinting it will be). He faces Brandon Pfaadt, whose postseason run earned him a payday but whose 0.367 xwOBA and middling 19 % K rate scream regression. Lindquist expects at least one of his two lefty bombs to cash and likes Aranda’s number as long as it stays north of +400.

Under was the tout’s second play. Tampa has scored zero runs in three of its last six, and Fott is in peak form (one earned run over two starts). Littell is volatile but supported by a Rays bullpen that owns a 2.95 ERA over the last 10 days. Arizona’s pen has been shakier (6.75 ERA) yet has only taken one loss in that span and holds a 3.93 FIP, suggesting improvement. Seven of Arizona’s last 10 contests finished with nine runs or fewer, and none of their previous six home games have reached double‑digit totals. Given the ice‑cold Rays bats and strong starting matchup, the tout projects another Under.

Cash Out Sports Picks sided with Arizona on the money line. Brandon Fott has allowed just one run over his last 11.2 innings and faces a Tampa lineup that owns a mere .342 slugging and 94 wRC+ versus righties over the previous five games. Only two Rays hitters have ever seen Fott. Zach Littell, primarily a career reliever, ranks in the 11th percentile in barrel rate and 23rd percentile in hard‑hit rate, making him unpredictable as a starter. Arizona’s bats have a .450 SLG and 112 wRC+ versus right‑handed pitching in the last five, and Tampa has been shut out three times in six games. Those splits push the tout toward the Snakes.

Scott Reichel also backed Arizona, stressing Tampa Bay’s offensive malaise. Outside of one nine‑run outburst against Boston and a late four‑run gift from Devin Williams versus New York, the Rays have stacked zeros. Reichel is unimpressed by Littell’s profile—4.50 xERA, sub‑20 % K‑rate, and a brutal road sample. Meanwhile Pfaadt has allowed just three runs over his last 12 frames and owns a 19:3 K:BB in that span. Reichel scoffed that Tampa’s most exciting asset is newly‑called‑up speedster Shane Stevenson, “who still has to reach base first.” Until the lineup shows life, he is happy to lay modest juice with the more balanced Diamondbacks.

Malcolm Bamford recommended Arizona at –149, noting Brandon Pfaadt has strung together two straight quality starts and appears to have his slider tunneling again. Conversely, Zack Littell’s lone road outing was a five‑earned clunker in Texas, and his 46 % hard‑hit rate suggests regression. Bamford simply trusts the deeper Snakes offense—top‑8 in wRC+ against righties—over a Rays lineup that has produced more than four runs just twice in its last nine games. With both bullpens middle‑of‑the‑road, he prefers siding with the better current form on the mound and at the plate, calling Arizona the straightforward play.

Chris Welsh noted Jordan Lawlar is torching the Pacific Coast League with a .325/.423/1.000 slash, five homers and eight steals at age 21, tying Nick Kurtz for the most AAA hits this year. The only holdup is roster fit: Ketel Marte is nearing return, Gerardo Perdomo just signed an extension and Arizona has not tried Lawlar in the outfield, although he has recently logged games at second base. Welsh said the most logical route is sliding Marte to the outfield to protect his hamstring and inserting Lawlar at second, but until the team commits to everyday at‑bats he remains a stash rather than an immediate add.