Morgan recommended stacking Ben Rice ($3,500), Cody Bellinger ($3,000) and Anthony Volpe ($2,800) against Taj Bradley. Bradley’s ERA sits at 4.58 with strikeouts down, walks up and 2.5 HR/9 allowed on the road. Yankee Stadium’s short porch boosts lefties like Rice (slugging .559, eight homers) and Bellinger (three homers, three steals despite a slow start), while Bradley has let right-handers hit .279 in 2025, giving Volpe (five homers, four steals—all homers at home) path to upside.

Brad Francis bet Taj Bradley under 5.5 strikeouts at ‑135. He cited Bradley’s ongoing homer problem (1.6 HR/9 since call-up) and the Yankees’ willingness to sell out for power, ranking top-5 in HR rate but only mid-pack in K-rate. Francis does not see the right-hander lasting deep enough to fan six, projecting early trouble and a quick hook from Kevin Cash.

Eric Pathy advised taking the Tampa Bay Rays at +0.80 moneyline odds against the Yankees based purely on his momentum-based system. The Rays had just snapped a four-game losing streak, and Pathy believes teams that immediately become sizable underdogs the next day often continue the rebound. He noted that Tampa Bay is 5-5 over its last 10 games, meaning bettors have been getting plus-money prices on a club still winning half the time, a combination Pathy says produces long-term profit without digging into pitching matchups or advanced stats. He framed the play as a simple streak-and-price angle rather than a full service release, but labeled it his complimentary selection for bettors looking for value.

Kenny G leaned to the Rays at +155, stating the number is ‘too juicy’ with Will Warren and his 5.63 ERA opposing them. He acknowledged Taj Bradley got rocked (6 ER in 5.1 IP) by New York on April 17 but pointed out Bradley’s bounce-back seven-inning, two-run gem versus Kansas City and Tampa’s elite 2.83 bullpen ERA (5th). Meanwhile the Yankees are being priced like a juggernaut even though they are only 19-14 and entrusting a rookie who was pounded by Baltimore his last time out and lasted only 1⅔ against the Rays previously. He refuses to lay –190 with that pitching matchup, insisting the only betting value is on Tampa’s moneyline and skipping the 8.5/9 total because both pens are top-5.

Peterson grabbed the Rays at +158, grading them +127. He argued Yankees rookie Will Warren’s 4.5 BB/9 and 5.63 ERA make New York overpriced, especially with the bullpen already used heavily this week. Rays right-hander Taj Bradley is down to 7.4 K/9 after back-to-back 10+ K seasons, yet Peterson trusts his track record more than Warren’s unproven command. With the Yankees still missing two middle-of-the-order bats, Peterson thinks Tampa Bay has a live path to the upset.

Dan Palyo said Ben Rice is a +300 HR prop worth firing on Saturday. Rice owns an elite .324 AVG and .368 ISO versus right-handed pitching and is pulling the ball 55% of the time, an ideal profile for Yankee Stadium’s short right-field porch. Opposing starter Zack Littell has already coughed up eight homers in 2025 and is allowing a .574 SLG to lefties. Palyo noted that while Aaron Judge also grades out well, Rice offers roughly double the payout at the window with a similar matchup advantage.

Dan Palyo backed Ben Rice to go over 0.5 HR at +300. Rice already has eight bombs, logged a 105.4-mph double off the wall last night, and is batting .324 with a .368 ISO against right-handed pitching. Palyo emphasized Rice’s 55% pull rate paired with Yankee Stadium’s short right-field porch, noting that 55%+ pulled fly balls historically translate into elite HR rates. Opposing starter Zack Littell has surrendered eight homers in 2025 and is giving up a .574 SLG to left-handed hitters while ranking near the bottom of the league in hard-hit suppression. Palyo likes the price gap versus Aaron Judge’s +150 number and expects Rice to lead off, maximizing plate appearances.

Bettor Mark advised taking Aaron Judge over 1.5 hits at +175 on FanDuel, grading it as a half-unit official play. Judge has topped this number in seven of his last ten games (70%) and is "tearing the cover off the baseball" right now. Mark noted that prop lines are based on 162-game season averages, so they lag when a star gets scorching hot, creating value. Saturday he faces soft-tossing right-hander Zach Littell, whose balanced off-speed mix has still yielded an elevated batting average to right-handed hitters. With the game in hitter-friendly Yankee Stadium and Judge locked in, Mark expects at least two knocks despite the risk of a walk or two. He mentioned the 2.5 Hits+Runs+RBI prop (-130) as a viable alternative but prefers the bigger payout on straight hits.

Shubham Soni recommended Ben Rice’s home-run prop at +310, citing the rookie’s .265 average, eight homers and .950 OPS since stepping in for the injured Giancarlo Stanton. Rice owns a .579 slugging mark against right-handed pitching, exactly the split that has plagued Zack Littell and the Rays bullpen. Soni added that Saturday’s warm, windy conditions in the Bronx bump up left-handed power, making Rice a high-reward long-ball wager.

Shubham Soni backed Aaron Judge to clear the fence at +155. Soni highlighted Judge’s absurd start to 2025 – a .430 average, 10 homers and a 1.298 OPS – and noted that the wind is forecast to be blowing out in New York. He expects the Yankee slugger to feast on Rays right-hander Zack Littell (1-5, 5.03 ERA), pointing out Tampa Bay’s season-long woes against right-handed power bats. With Judge barreling the ball at a league-best clip and Littell surrendering a .486 slugging percentage to righties, Soni labeled this a green-light spot for a round-tripper.

Kenny G said he prefers the Under 9.5 in Rays-Yankees. His rationale: both bullpens rank top-5 in ERA (Tampa 2.88, New York only a tick higher); Zach Littell has quietly strung together three solid outings, including five innings of two-run ball at Petco, and Clarke Schmidt finally flashed form by holding Toronto to one hit over five frames. Meanwhile the Rays offense has vanished—just three total runs during a four-game skid—while New York’s bats have cooled the last couple contests despite still ranking 2nd in runs on the year. Tampa is 18-12-2 to the under and the Yankees 16-14-2, reinforcing the trend. With two competent starters, elite pens and a lofty total, he expects a 4-3 type game that cashes the under.

Kenny G leaned to the Rays at +150, arguing the losing streak has to end sooner than later. He noted Zach Littell’s ERA has fallen below 3.00 over his last three starts while the club’s bullpen remains 5th-best in MLB. Clark Schmidt owns a 5.52 season ERA and, despite a sharp outing versus Toronto, is still far from "lights-out." Kenny expects Tampa’s dormant lineup (19th in runs, 19th in slugging) to rebound against Schmidt, and with both pens strong he sees a tight game where a plus-money dog makes sense. Not his "dog of the day," but a nibble at the current price.

Dylan Rockford was willing to lay up to –165 with the Yankees or play their team total instead. His model made New York a –165 favorite thanks to an offense averaging 6.4 runs per game at Yankee Stadium and a 10-5 straight-up home record. Aaron Judge is red-hot, and the Rays arrive on a three-game skid after being swept by the Royals. Rockford noted Tampa is just 1-5 in Zach Littell’s six starts and that Littell has surrendered two or more runs in all of them (5.00+ ERA). Given those splits and the Yankees’ ability to score in bunches, he felt the chalk or the Bronx Bombers’ team-total over remained playable despite the elevated tag.

Scott Reichel said the Rays were worth a stab at +150 (or via their team-total over) because the market was giving the Yankees far too much credit with Clarke Schmidt listed at –180. Schmidt owns a 5.52 ERA, rarely works past the fifth inning, and hands things to a bullpen that has already been stretched. Zach Littell has not been sharp either (5.03 ERA), which explains the unusually high 9.5 total for a Tampa game, but Reichel felt that very total signaled runs coming off Schmidt more than Littell. With both starters scuffling yet New York priced like they have an ace, he believed the dog moneyline and Rays team-specific overs held the best betting value.

Data Skrive’s computer projection spit out Yankees 4-3 and recommended laying the -185 moneyline. The algorithm is willing to live with Clarke Schmidt’s 5.52 ERA because New York is 19-13, playing in the Bronx, and catches Tampa starter Zack Littell carrying a 1-5 record and 5.03 ERA. The model expects the Yankees’ stronger lineup and home park edge to overcome the mediocre pitching matchup while keeping the total under 9.5.

It's The Final Round flagged Anthony Volpe as a sneaky hit + HR prop play against Zach Lutel. Volpe owns a ridiculous 5-for-8 with two homers (.625) lifetime versus the right-hander and has at least one hit in nine of his last eleven games. The tout noted Volpe’s recent power surge and thinks the combination of strong history and current form justifies betting his total bases or HR market and rolling him into hitter parlays.

For the same matchup, Cash Out Sports Picks recommended a full-game UNDER, noting that both starters have flashed improved command — Little sporting a 2.96 ERA over his last three and Schmidt coming off a one-run outing versus Toronto. Tampa’s bats managed just one knock Friday, and the Yankees have produced only 12 total runs across their last four. With Tampa on the road (5-5 record) and the Yankees’ pen ranking top-10 in strand rate, the tout projects a grind-it-out contest that stays beneath the posted total.

Cash Out Sports Picks backed the Rays on the money-line, arguing that Tampa Bay’s starter Trevor Little has quietly righted the ship — 4 earned over his last 12 innings after a win against San Diego — while Clarke Schmidt has surrendered 9 ER across his previous 14.2 innings once you scroll past last week’s no-decision. Friday’s series opener was a 1-hit dud for the Rays yet they still kept things tight, suggesting the gap between these offenses is smaller than the box score shows. New York is a solid 11-5 at home, but Tampa faces a desperate four-game skid and has the better current form on the mound. With both pens rested and Little trending up, the tout sees value in the slight road dog snapping its slide.

Tony Sartori laid the -1.5 run line with New York at +112 (playable to +105), arguing the Yankees hold significant advantages on the mound, at the plate, and in the bullpen. He pointed to Zack Littell’s 5.03 ERA and even worse 5.42 xERA, plus bottom-20th-percentile marks in xBA, strikeout rate, barrel rate, and hard-hit rate. Littell has already been torched by this Yankee roster (.327 AVG / .635 SLG / .460 wOBA in 64 combined PA) and owns a 5.71 career ERA across three starts in the Bronx. Tampa’s bullpen offers little relief, ranking 20th in FIP and 24th in WAR. On the New York side, Clarke Schmidt’s surface numbers hide positive regression indicators: 3.53 xERA, top-half K%, xBA, exit velocity, and barrel rate. Schmidt has stifled the Rays with a 0.96 ERA over his last three outings against them. Backing him is a relief corps that sits 4th in FIP and 5th in WAR, and an offense that currently leads MLB in AVG, OBP, SLG, OPS, and home runs. With Tampa ranking bottom-half in every major offensive category and public money (92% of bets, 97% of dollars) already pouring in on the Yankee spread, Sartori expects New York to win by multiple runs and advised grabbing the plus odds before they disappear.

Greg Peterson bet the Under 9.5 because neither offense is positioned to explode against mediocre but trending-up pitching. Clarke Schmidt’s overall 5.52 ERA looks ugly, yet he has surrendered only four total runs in 10 2/3 home innings. Zack Littell’s 5.03 ERA is also inflated; he has limited opponents to three runs or fewer in three straight outings and now hands the ball to a Rays bullpen sporting a 2.90 ERA (5th-best in MLB). Peterson’s own number on the game is 8.6 runs, giving him nearly a full run of cushion versus the market.

Razzle said Max Fried is a core DFS arm tonight. The Yankees are –258 favorites and Fried is +115 to record the win, the 4th-best mark on the slate. His strikeout prop sits at 5.5 (essentially even money), which Razzle flagged as a threshold he always wants. Tampa Bay owns a 122 team ISO on the road with only six homers in nine away games, and just two active hitters over a .167 ISO versus lefties—one of whom (Brandon Lowe) may not start. Razzle noted the Rays’ numbers crater outside The Trop and that he has successfully attacked them with southpaws all year. Warm weather and a neutral wind in Yankee Stadium do not scare him off. He expects Fried to work deep enough for the quality start and sees 6-8 K upside at a moderate salary.

JD Bets played OVER 4.5 hits allowed on Ryan Pepiot, noting that the Tampa right-hander has cleared that number in four of his past five outings and just gave up six knocks to New York last week. The Yankees are white-hot—No. 2 in batting average, No. 2 in total hits, and No. 6 in RBIs over the last 10 games—and half the lineup is above .300 versus righties (Aaron Judge 4-for-11 with a .955 OPS during that span). Pepiot’s recent hit chart includes three allowed to a struggling Padres offense, which JD used to underline how dangerous the matchup is in the Bronx. With only moderate 9 mph winds to left, park and weather do little to bail Pepiot out. JD predicted the right-hander could reach five hits by the second inning.

Beermakersfan said Trent Grisham remains a smash value in cash and GPP builds. Grisham is still priced under 5 K on DraftKings and under 3.2 K on FanDuel even though he is now entrenched in the Yankee leadoff spot with MVP-caliber bats behind him. Among hitters with 40+ PA versus right-handed pitching this season he owns a .450+ wOBA and .450+ ISO, both top-five in MLB. Opposing starter Ryan Pepiot (the transcript spells him Pipeo) has been mauled by lefties: .351 wOBA, .288 ISO, 47 % hard-hit rate, all while carrying an unsustainably low .237 BABIP that suggests things could get worse. The combination of elite individual form, premium lineup slot and a pitcher who cannot get lefties out makes Grisham a core DFS salary-saving piece for Friday.

Guy Boston recommended Max Fried under 2.5 earned runs at –160. Fried has opened 2025 with six straight unders, surrendering just 0.83 ER per start. He blanked the Rays over 7.2 innings on 4/20, and Tampa Bay is the second-worst offense against left-handed pitching this season, sitting bottom-six in every slash category. Boston highlighted Fried’s 81st-percentile batting-average allowed and 97th-percentile ERA metrics, noting that the Yankees signed him to stabilize the rotation while Cole heals. With the Rays still scuffling and Fried dealing, Boston views the stingy alternate line as ‘phenomenal value’.

Tokyo Brandon advised betting the Rays team total under 3.5 runs in New York. He grades Max Fried as the No. 3 starter in MLB and noted Fried has dominated Tampa Bay hitters—just a .077 average and .240 OPS allowed over 39 career at-bats. The Yankees bullpen ranks eighth on his scale, further limiting Tampa’s scoring chances. Meanwhile the Rays lineup sits 27/30 and has been "flaccid" of late, especially on the road. Because Yankee money-lines carry a baked-in fan premium (-190 here), Brandon prefers attacking the matchup via the under on Tampa’s runs, trusting Fried and the pen to shut down a struggling, power-short lineup.

Zarpentine recommended betting Max Fried to record the win at +125. New York is 6-0 when he takes the mound and Fried has personally notched the W in five straight. He blanked Tampa over 7.2 innings less than two weeks ago and has gone at least six frames without an earned run in three of his last four outings. Because Fried routinely works deep and shields a shaky Yankee bullpen, Zarpentine considers plus money on the win a clear buy.

Bryan Zarpentine urged bettors to grab +210 on Aaron Judge clearing 1.5 hits Friday. His case: Judge is batting an absurd .427 and just went 7-for-11 in Baltimore. The slugger owns multi-hit efforts in four of the last five and six of the last eight games. While the sample versus Ryan Pepiot is small (2-for-6), Zarpentine argued that current form trumps any matchup data, making another two-hit night a strong value at better than 2-to-1.

The same handicapper paired the side with a full-game UNDER, citing a combined 3-7 O/U mark for both clubs over their last 10. He stressed "tight pitching" on each side: New York’s rotation has carried the club, while Tampa Bay’s staff still limits crooked numbers despite its offensive woes. Because the Rays are "still searching for any consistent production" and the Yankees are unlikely to explode against quality arms, Cash Out Sports Picks projected a low-scoring script—something like 4-2—making the under the sharper look.

Zarpentine recommended backing Max Fried to record the win at +125. New York is 6-0 when Fried takes the mound and the left-hander has personally cashed the W in five straight. He blanked the Tampa lineup over 7.2 innings in their last meeting and has tossed at least six scoreless frames in three of his past four outings. By consistently working deep he shields the Yankees’ shaky bullpen, giving New York extra paths to a decision. Zarpentine sees the plus-odds as too generous given Fried’s run-prevention streak and the club’s perfect record behind him.

Bryan Zarpentine urged bettors to hammer Aaron Judge’s Over 1.5 Hits prop at +210. Judge is on an absolute heater, going 7-for-11 in the mid-week series at Baltimore and producing multi-hit efforts in four of his last five games and six of his last eight. He is slashing a ridiculous .427 overall, so Zarpentine downplayed the matchup angle but still noted that Judge is 2-for-6 lifetime off Friday starter Ryan Pepiot. Given the combination of current form and long odds, Zarpentine called this a must-bet for anyone building a Friday MLB card.

In the same matchup, Peterson played Under 8.5 runs (model 7.9). Pepiot’s road ERA (3.22) and Fried’s underlying 2.97 FIP point to a pitchers’ duel. Pepiot keeps the ball in the yard, while Fried’s strike-throwing and heavy ground-ball profile (52% GB rate) mitigate damage even if his ERA drifts upward. With winds projected to blow in at 8-10 mph and both bullpens ranking top-10 in ERA, Peterson expects scoring to stay muted.

Dan Servodidio advised betting Ben Rice +360 to hit a home run Friday against Tampa Bay. He pointed to Rice’s breakout eight-homer start and .958 OPS, noting the rookie has gone deep six times in his last 16 starts and belted two on Tuesday. The matchup is the driver: right-hander Ryan Pepiot has already surrendered eight homers, owns a 2.12 HR/9 and 22.2% HR/FB rate (both top-5 worst among qualified starters). Lefties have crushed Pepiot, and Rice has hammered right-handed pitching with a .323 average, .692 slugging, 1.135 OPS, six of eight homers and a .369 ISO that ranks seventh in MLB. Pepiot also gave up two long balls to Yankee lefties in his last meeting with New York, leading Servodidio to call Rice a strong plus-money HR prop.

Peterson snagged Tampa Bay at +187 (he made it +158) because Ryan Pepiot has quietly been far better away from the Trop since the trade—3.22 road ERA and only 1.1 HR/9 versus a 4.07 ERA and 1.5+ HR/9 at home. Max Fried has opened 2025 with a sparkling 1.19 ERA, but his 2.97 FIP and pedestrian 7.9 K/9 suggest regression is coming. With Tampa’s bullpen well-rested and New York’s lineup still missing two regulars to injury, Peterson likes the big dog price on the Rays.

Cash Out Sports Picks laid the -1.5 with New York, arguing the Bronx Bombers are cashing run-line tickets in this exact spot. The Yankees are 9-5 ATS when listed as home favorites and an even better 4-1 when Max Frye gets the ball. Yankee Stadium’s hostile environment and New York’s ability to "string together enough offense" were highlighted, while Tampa Bay’s lineup was labeled "already having a hard time bringing runs across the plate." With Frye described as "one of the most locked-in pitchers in the league" and the Rays forced to scratch for offense, the tout expects Frye to work deep and New York to provide just enough run support to clear the spread.

Kenny G called Yankees –210 his “lock of the day.” He cited Max Fried’s pristine 5-0 record and microscopic 1.19 ERA, highlighting the left-hander’s recent 7⅔-inning, two-hit shutout of these same Rays on 4/20. New York’s bullpen backs him up with a 3.02 ERA that ranks top-six, while the offense is carrying the league—second in runs, first in average/OBP/SLG—thanks largely to Aaron Judge’s absurd .427 average with 10 HR and 32 RBI. On the other side, Ryan Pepiot gets the ball for Tampa; he was tagged by the Yankees earlier in the month and now faces a lineup that crushes righties. The Rays’ attack is sputtering (20th in runs, 18th in slugging) and just got blanked by Kansas City. Given the clear edge in the rotation, bullpen, and bats, Kenny is willing to eat the heavy juice and ride New York moneyline.

Lindquist recommended a quarter-unit sprinkle on Ben Rice to homer at +400 or better. Tampa Bay’s Ryan Pepiot has underwhelmed, giving up a 10% barrel rate and eight long balls already, while Rice continues to put up elite hard-contact numbers since being called up. Yankee Stadium’s short porch amplifies Rice’s pull power, and Lindquist will fire on any price longer than +365, calling Pepiot’s current 4.24 ERA (4.61 xERA) and sketchy command an ideal matchup for the lefty slugger.

B Wade targeted the over on 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs for Ben Rice against right-hander Ryan Pepiot. Rice has topped this mark in 15 of 26 games (58 %) despite hitting it only once in his last five, a slump Wade expects to end. The rookie is slashing .323 versus righties compared to .138 against lefties, suggesting most of his misses have come in southpaw matchups. Pepiot brings a middling 4.20 ERA and 1.40 WHIP, giving Rice a favorable spot to collect at least two counting stats Friday.

Brad Francis backed the Yankees on the run line, pointing out that New York has covered the run line in seven straight games immediately following a loss. He highlighted that the Yankees’ ace, Freed, gets the ball while Tampa Bay limps in after looking "absolute ****" against Kansas City. With the Rays now forced to travel to Yankee Stadium, Francis sees a clear mismatch and expects another multi-run Bronx win.

Romanelli continues to ride Max Fried, noting the Yankees are 6-0 when he starts and the lefty sports a 1.19 ERA with only one homer allowed. The Rays’ offense ranks just 23rd in wRC+ over the last two weeks and has struggled in pitcher-friendly parks, making Fried a strong bet to keep rolling while Gerrit Cole remains shelved. Ryan Pepiot, meanwhile, has already surrendered eight long balls and carries a fly-ball profile ill-suited for Yankee Stadium’s short porch. Romanelli expects New York’s right-handed power—third in HR rate versus RHP—to take advantage, so he’s laying both money line and run line with the Yankees.

Scott Reichel laid –1.5 runs with the Yankees at –102, citing a massive pitching gap between Cy Young frontrunner Freed (5-0, 1.19 ERA, 13⅔ consecutive scoreless innings) and Rays right-hander Pepiot, who owns a sky-high hit rate and has served up seven homers in his last four starts. New York is 10-5 at Yankee Stadium and hitting .289 over its last ten games while averaging 5.6 runs per nine. Reichel noted the Yankees already took three of four from Tampa earlier this month and probably should have swept. With the Rays coming off a demoralizing home sweep by Kansas City and their bullpen overworked, he expects New York’s offense to “tee off,” making the run line a better value than the moneyline.

Anthony Volpe is 1-for-2 (.500) in the tiny sample against Ryan Pepiot and has hits in nine of his last 11 contests. The tout listed him as a solid one-hit piece to pair with Judge in same-game parlays.

Joe Pisapia’s best bet of the day is the Aaron Judge home-run prop at +210 and a parlay with the Yankees money line (+340) in Camden Yards. Judge owns a .317 average, 46 homers, 98 RBI and 106 runs in just 109 career games against Baltimore, and he faces rookie left-hander Cade Povich plus a bullpen Pisapia called "a joke." He suggested sprinkling on ancillary markets—RBI and total bases—but emphasized the homer prop as the core play given Judge’s career 12.1 % HR/PA rate versus the Orioles. Bettors looking for extra exposure can ladder alternate total bases, but Pisapia’s primary advice is to ride the plus-money long-ball number while it is still above 2-to-1.