B Wade said he would look to fade Austin Wells in Thursday player-prop markets after the Yankees catcher lost focus and was picked off wandering off second base in the ninth inning of a tie game. Wade believes that embarrassing mental mistake is likely to linger in Wells’ head and could affect his approach at the plate, making unders on his hits, total bases, or fantasy points attractive for bettors hunting fade spots.

B Wade played Giancarlo Stanton over 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs against Tampa Bay right-hander Ryan Pepio. Stanton has cleared this line in 15 of his last 20 games after shaking off early-season rust, and he owns a batting-average bump of roughly 20 points vs righties. Though he has not faced Pepio before, Wade is betting on current form: hard-hit rate north of 55 percent in July and at least one hit in both games of the series. With Pepio allowing a .260 average to power bats and Yankee Stadium’s short porch in play, Wade projects multiple counting stats for Stanton.

Kenny G said he is siding with the Yankees at roughly -115 in Thursday’s opener. His lean is built on several factors: Tampa Bay has dropped six of its last seven and keeps getting burned in one-run and extra-inning finishes, a skid he attributes to a bullpen that has slid to a 3.88 ERA and no longer looks dominant. At the plate the Rays are only mid-pack in power (around league-average slugging) and have scored four runs or fewer in five of their last seven, so Ryan Pepiot’s decent 3.42 ERA is getting little help (the club is 1-4 in his last five starts). New York, meanwhile, is 33-22 at home and still ranks top-three in runs and first in slugging even while Aaron Judge nurses an injury. Kenny expects a bounce-back from Marcus Stroman, noting his previous two starts before the Philly blow-up were solid and that this will be just his ninth start of an injury-marred year. He also likes the Yankees’ momentum after last night’s extra-inning win and trusts their lineup depth more than Tampa’s current form. With only three games on the slate he cautions against oversizing bets, but he believes the Yanks’ combination of home field, slightly better bullpen trend, and Rays fatigue gives them the edge.

Drew Martin backed Tampa Bay at +102, stressing the clear starting-pitching edge Ryan Pepiot provides over Marcus Stroman. Pepiot owns a 3.40 ERA and 124 strikeouts and has worked six-plus innings in Yankee Stadium twice this summer, holding New York in check both times. His most recent outing – two hits over six scoreless frames in Cincinnati’s bandbox – convinced Drew the right-hander’s current form is "peaking at the right time." Stroman, meanwhile, has imploded at home: 6.07 ERA across eight starts, a shaky 23-to-16 K/BB, and 15 earned runs plus 12 walks in just 19 Yankee-Stadium innings. With 10–11 mph wind blowing in from center and Tampa’s bullpen graded “decidedly better versus right-handed heavy lineups,” Martin called the Rays a live underdog and his favorite Thursday ticket.

B Wade suggested taking the under on Austin Wells’ 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs, calling the catcher “dead in the water.” Wells is batting just .195 versus right-handed pitching and is 0-for-6 lifetime against Ryan Pepio. Wade also pointed to Wells’ recent mental lapse—getting picked off second in a tie game—as evidence the young backstop is pressing. With no platoon advantage and a cold bat (one multi-hit effort in his last ten games), Wade views Wells as a prime fade in prop markets.

Reichel’s underdog is Tampa Bay –1.5 at +155. He said, “I don’t trust Stroman,” expecting the Yankee right-hander to get shelled, while Rays starter Pepiot is at least serviceable. Even though Tampa may deal pieces at the deadline, he still prefers their firepower to a Yankees club that “always makes it an adventure” despite recent wins. The juicy price on the Rays’ run line made it his favorite dog.

Scott Reichel grabbed Tampa Bay at +100 because he believes Ryan Pepiot (3.42 ERA, identical home/road splits) clearly outclasses Marcus Stroman, who just allowed four earned and four walks in 3.2 innings against Philadelphia and has alternated blow-ups with quality starts since returning from the IL. Reichel also cited New York’s shaky bullpen and noted that any late Rays lineup scratches for trade purposes are already baked into the plus money. His model makes Tampa a slight favorite, so he is siding with the Rays on the road.

Dylan Rockford called Austin Slater a sneaky DFS and short-term season-long play whenever the Yankees face a left-handed starter. Although Slater "is not having the best year," Rockford stressed his strong splits versus southpaws and pointed out that New York’s outfield is stretched thin with Aaron Judge still sidelined, Giancarlo Stanton limited to DH, and Jasson Dominguez viewed as a defensive liability. Slater has already logged 15 games in right field and nine in left, so Rockford expects Aaron Boone to deploy him immediately in a strict platoon, giving fantasy managers a cheap power/speed option in Yankee Stadium’s short porch against lefties.

Brad Free Pick Dawgz said the No-Run First Inning line is worth a shot in Rays-Yankees because the factors lean pitcher-friendly. He pointed out that Marcus Stroman, since re-joining the rotation, "hasn’t looked terrible" outside of one rough outing and now faces a Rays offense he believes is in a "bit of a funk." On the other side, the Yankees’ order still lacks thump without Aaron Judge, so Brad expects Tampa starter "Pepe Oik" (his phrasing for the Rays starter) to cruise through the top of the first. With both lineups scuffling and Yankee Stadium weather not projected to juice run scoring, Brad thinks backing the Nerfie is a solid small-stake betting angle.

Cash Out Sports Picks said the New York Yankees money line is the best side in Thursday’s series finale. He pointed to Marcus Stroman’s strong recent history against Tampa Bay—a complete-game shutout in 2023 and only three earned runs allowed across his last three starts versus the Rays. On the flip side, Ryan Pepiot is 0-2 against New York this year and failed to escape the fifth inning during his May start in the Bronx. Even without Aaron Judge, the Yankees lineup still grades out better than a slumping Tampa club, and New York’s 33-22 record at Yankee Stadium underscores the home-field edge.

Jay Yang said the New York Yankees are the side to back against Tampa Bay, pointing to several matchup advantages for Marcus Stroman. The Rays sit in the bottom third of MLB in OPS versus right-handed pitching, exactly the profile Stroman exploits with his heavy-sink fastball that yields one of the league’s best ground-ball rates and plentiful double-play chances. Although Stroman’s full-season numbers remain underwhelming, Yang noted his ERA has improved by roughly 1.2 runs over his last five outings, a sign he is rounding into form. Yang added that Ryan Pepiot’s solid overall metrics mask road vulnerability against power-centric lineups like New York’s. He trusts the Yankees’ fresher bullpen in a tight playoff race and expects a low-scoring game where one or two swings decide it. Recommended play: Yankees moneyline with listed pitchers Pepiot vs. Stroman.

It’s The Final Round said Jonathan Aranda is one of the few bats worth targeting on Thursday’s mini-slate. Marcus Stroman has been giving up a .298 average to left-handed hitters and a .288 mark overall during the last 30 days, and Yankee Stadium’s short porch amplifies left-handed power. Aranda owns a .324 average versus right-handed pitching, is batting .304 over his last seven games, and has produced at least one hit in every game of this series, including two multi-hit efforts. The show’s AI model lists an 85 % chance for a hit, 40 % for an extra-base hit, 55 % for a run, 50 % for an RBI, and projects 10–12 fantasy points. The tout likes Aranda’s over on simple hit props and sees 1.5 total bases as a viable ladder play.

Lindquist is leaning toward Tampa Bay on the money line because Marcus Stroman’s profile keeps getting worse: .474 slugging allowed, .500 xSLG, and steady year-over-year degradation in every Baseball Savant category. He called Stroman a “pinata” and noted that Brandon Lowe’s return gives the Rays another left-handed bat to exploit Yankee Stadium’s short right-field porch. While Ryan Pepiot’s 9.7% barrel rate is not ideal, his change-up historically neutralizes lefties, which is basically all New York has outside of Giancarlo Stanton. Lindquist wants a slightly better price before upgrading the lean to an official play.

Kenny G said Tampa Bay is his preferred "dog of the day" at +118 because the matchup tilts their way even with the club’s recent funk. The Rays send right-hander Zack Littell (10 hits, 5 ER in Cincinnati last time but seven shutout frames versus New York back on May 1) against rookie Will Warren, who owns a 4.82 ERA with two blow-ups in his last five and was torched by Tampa earlier this season. Kenny trusts Littell to rebound more than Warren to solve the Rays’ lineup. He also pointed to New York’s crumbling bullpen (worst ERA in MLB over the last two weeks) and an offense missing Aaron Judge that ranks just 17th in slugging without him. Tampa’s pen has slipped to a 3.86 ERA, yet that is still materially better than the Yankees’ recent form. With the Bombers only 31-22 at home and 31-22-1 to the under there, Kenny thinks runs will be at a premium, making any plus-money on the superior starter too good to pass up.

Kenny G is hopping right back on Tampa Bay at +118, calling the Rays his ‘dog of the day’. He trusts Zach Littell to rebound from a five-earned-run dud because the Yankees no longer have Aaron Judge and Littell dominated this lineup for 7.0 IP of two-run ball in May. Will Warren owns a 4.82 ERA and two blow-ups in his last five starts, including a shelling by Tampa earlier this season, giving the Rays the clear starting-pitching edge. Kenny also slammed New York’s pen for a 5-plus ERA over the past two weeks, whereas Tampa’s relief unit, though wobbly, is still stronger season-long at 3.86. Offensively the Rays have cooled (five runs or fewer in eight straight) but the Yankees are just as inconsistent without Judge. With both clubs trending 59% to the under in their respective home/road splits, Kenny is skipping the total and betting the superior arm/bullpen combo at a plus price.

Lonte Smith said the Yankees should not be laying –140 plus behind rookie Will Warren given the state of their lineup. New York has been forced to juggle the batting order while slumping, scoring fewer than four runs in six of the last eight. Warren’s surface numbers at home are solid, yet his underlying 4.49 xFIP and 10% walk rate point to trouble, and he has just five big-league starts under his belt. Smith reminded listeners that Tampa traditionally punches above its weight in the Bronx, going 26-18 against the Yankees since 2021, including 12-9 on the road. Zach Littell owns a 3.64 FIP over his last six road turns and generally limits walks, giving Tampa a path to hang around. With the Rays catching around +144, Smith believes the historical matchup edge and Yankees’ offensive uncertainty make Tampa Bay a worthwhile moneyline stab.

B Wade played Will Warren OVER 4.5 strikeouts. The rookie has eclipsed the line in 68 percent of his starts (5.6 K avg) but ramps up to 6.36 K at Yankee Stadium, clearing in 8 of 11 home outings. Against Tampa Bay he fanned eight last time out; the lone miss came when he was yanked in the 2nd inning early in the season. With the Rays sitting mid-pack in strikeout rate but trending higher recently, Wade expects Warren to reach five punch-outs or more.

Just A Bet Outside recommended grabbing the Rays money-line at +120 in the Bronx, arguing the number should be closer to a pick-em. He highlighted Zack Littell’s consistency—three or fewer earned in 16 of his last 18 starts—plus elite command (only 17 walks in 128.1 IP, 99th-percentile walk rate) and an 86th-percentile chase rate that plays well against a Judge-less Yankees lineup. On the other side, rookie Will Warren has walked nine batters in three starts and allowed eight or more base-runners in each, surviving so far on an unsustainably high strand rate that has ranged from 92% to 100% in four straight outings. Warren also owns glaring splits versus lefties (.278 AVG, .481 SLG, 1.83 WHIP, 4.63 xFIP; 10 of 12 HR allowed). Tampa projects to roll out a left-heavy card now that Brandon Lowe is back alongside Josh Lowe, Jonathan Aranda and Chandler Simpson. The Rays bullpen is rested after not using its leverage arms Tuesday, whereas New York burned Devin Williams for 25 pitches and continues to grade as a bottom-tier pen. With steadier starting pitching, platoon leverage, and the better relief corps, the tout sees clear value in the underdog Rays.

Guy Boston Sports said the Yankees are a first-five bet behind Max Fried. His angle: Tampa owns a .208 average, 27th-ranked wRC+, and bottom-three OBP versus lefties over the last 30 days, while Fried’s slider/curve combo should neutralize a Rays lineup that was already held to two runs Monday. Tampa burned three bullpen arms last night and is likely opening with Joe Boyle, whose splitter-slider mix matches up poorly against New York bats that grade well versus both pitches. Even without Aaron Judge, the projected top five of Grisham, Dominguez, Bellinger, Stanton, and Chisholm all post above-average numbers against right-handers. He is comfortable playing Yankees 1st-5 moneyline and sprinkling the full-game team-total over 3.5–4 runs, expecting Fried to cover six clean innings before a rested pen takes over.

Cash Out Sports Picks grabbed the Yankees money line, trusting starter J.P. Fry (2.62 ERA, 1.04 WHIP) to outduel Tampa’s Boyle, who has lasted only 14 innings across his last four starts. Fry has been even better in the Bronx, sporting a 2.24 ERA and .201 BAA over 52.1 IP. Historically the left-hander has dominated Tampa’s current roster (.109 AVG, 7 K in 46 AB). With the Rays slumping through the past week, he sees New York bouncing back at home.

Kenny G said the Rays are mis-priced at +175 and should be taken outright in the Bronx. He trusts 25-year-old Joe Boyle (1-0, 1.42 ERA) to give Tampa 4–5 solid innings after successive one-run relief outings and an April gem versus Atlanta. Tampa’s 3.88 bullpen ERA is middle of the pack, but Kenny expects it to out-duel a Yankees pen that has ballooned to 4.25. Offensively the Rays have cooled (4-1-2-2-9-4-3 runs last seven) yet still rank 10th in runs and 5th in batting average on the season, giving them plenty of ceiling if a few bats wake up. Conversely New York has dropped four of five, is missing Aaron Judge, and has managed just 2-4-4-5-4-5-1 runs across the same span. He flagged Max Fried’s recent skid (1–3 team record over his last four, 14 ER in 16⅓ IP, rising walk rate) as another red flag and called Boyle the steadier current form. With both clubs 28+ unders in their respective home/road splits, an under 8.5 lean makes sense, but Kenny’s official play is Rays ML, banking on a fading Yankees lineup, a wobbling Fried, and plus money too good to pass up.

Scott Reichel swallowed hard and laid –115 with the Yankees, arguing the market is overrating Tampa Bay because Drew Rasmussen is on a strict pitch cap. Rasmussen has failed to complete 4.1 innings in four straight starts, meaning a taxed and possibly soon-to-be-dismantled Rays bullpen will handle at least half the game. Reichel concedes New York’s form is poor but notes they are traditionally stronger at Yankee Stadium, whereas the Rays just got swept by Cincinnati and "are playing arguably worse baseball than the Yankees." With the starting-pitching edge muted by Rasmussen’s workload and neither offense firing, he still believes the small home favorite price is fair.

Lindquist is again attacking Drew Rasmussen unders across the board—hits, earned runs, and especially outs recorded—because the Rays continue to baby the right-hander’s workload. Rasmussen has thrown only two innings in three straight starts and still hasn’t topped 75 pitches since returning from the IL. Even with a sub-3.00 ERA, Lindquist argues the limited volume makes any traditional over props mis-priced. He expects books to reopen numbers late (they were absent most of the day in Rasmussen’s last outing) and suggests parlaying multiple unders for plus money, noting the White Sox tagged him for two earned in that brief stint and that Tampa clearly prioritizes long-term health over stretching him out in July.