For Cubs-Reds, Douglass relayed that Dimers’ projections give the Under 9 at -110 a 55.3% chance of cashing and a 2.9% edge— the highest edge of Sunday’s free picks. Bettors seeking total action can lean Under thanks to the model’s confidence exceeding the break-even mark.

The same pitching profile that favors Chicago also prompted Peterson to play Over 9. Both starters allow loud contact—Brown gives up 1.3 HR/9 and Lodolo 1.1—and Great American Ball Park ranks No. 2 in Statcast HR Park Factor. With Chicago pacing the NL in scoring and his model spitting out 9.6 runs, he’s happy to sweat the fireworks.

Shubham Soni advised backing Dansby Swanson at +475 to homer in Great American Ball Park. Soni noted Swanson’s 11 homers and a .258 average on the year, but emphasized the Cubs shortstop’s underlying power: a .522 expected slugging, 12.3% barrel rate, 45.9% hard-hit rate and 33.6% sweet-spot rate. He faces Reds lefty Nick Lodolo, who has shown vulnerability against right-handed bats, and the hitter-friendly dimensions in Cincinnati further boost the upside. Soni believes Swanson’s xBA of .276 signals looming positive regression and labels him a strong long-shot play.

Austin Swaim targeted Austin Hays 2+ Total Bases at +105, emphasizing how Hays’ tiny 5.9% walk rate versus righties meshes with Colin Rea’s contact-heavy 80.9% rate (seventh straight season above 78%). Rea allows fewer grounders to same-handed bats (32.8% GB) and has little swing-and-miss, setting Hays up for loud contact in homer-friendly Cincinnati. Hays has cashed this prop in four of his last eight starts, and FanDuel Research projects 1.89 median total bases—worth about -129 fair odds—so Swaim sees value at plus money.

Austin Swaim advised taking the Reds Over 4.5 runs at +102. He called Colin Rea’s 2.38 ERA a mirage created by recent soft opponents (Pirates, Marlins, White Sox) while his xERA and SIERA both sit north of 4.10 and his swinging-strike rate is just 8.9%. Rea’s 0.86 HR/9 is propped up by an unsustainably low 8.0% HR/FB, and Great American Ball Park ranks as Baseball Savant’s fourth-friendliest for hitters. Active Reds own a .996 OPS in 65 career at-bats off Rea, Cincinnati has a .735 OPS versus righties at home, and the Cubs’ bullpen carries the 27th-worst SIERA (3.97). All signs point to five-plus runs for Cincinnati.

Peterson laid -115 with Chicago because Ben Brown’s inflated 5.44 ERA hides a 3.49 FIP and elite 11.3 K/9, signaling positive regression ahead. Meanwhile Nick Lodolo’s strikeout rate has cratered to 7.5 K/9, well below his career norms. Coupled with the Cubs’ league-leading NL offense, Peterson priced the North Siders at -128.

Mike Maher said Nick Martinez is the only widely-available arm worth streaming on Monday. Maher pointed to Kansas City’s ice-cold offense – the Royals’ team-total under has been cashing almost nightly on the betting side – and our FantasyPros streamer tool grades KC as a bottom-tier matchup for opposing pitchers. Martinez has rewarded streamers in his last two turns and profiles well in Kauffman Stadium, a park that suppresses home runs. Maher views Martinez as a one-and-done add for roto or H2H leagues that set daily lineups, recommending him strictly for the Kansas City start.

Ron advised backing Chicago for the full nine innings. He admitted Ben Brown can allow early damage, yet trusts the Cubs’ offense—top tier versus lefties—to eventually chase inconsistent Nick Lodolo and exploit Cincinnati’s shaky bullpen. Romanelli compared it to Game 1 of the series when Chicago stormed back for a 13-6 win, emphasizing the Cubs’ superior lineup depth in late-game scenarios.

Kenny G called Under 9.5 his "very good spot" for Cubs–Reds. Chicago sends Colin Rea (3-0, 2.38 ERA; Cubs 4-1 in his last five) while Cincinnati counters with breakout lefty Andrew Abbott (3-0, 1.80 ERA, one earned run allowed over his past four starts and 11 shutout frames in two most recent home outings). Despite Great American Ball Park’s hitter reputation, both starters are in form and Abbott has yet to see the Cubs’ bats, giving him the unfamiliarity edge. Chicago’s offense can explode (1st in runs), but Kenny noted the Reds’ bullpen has been "good, not elite" and Chicago’s own relief corps is improving. Cincinnati trends 15-8-2 to the under at home, and Kenny doesn’t expect either arm to "have too much trouble" before handing off to competent pens, projecting a 4-3 or 5-3 type finish.

Scott Reichel said the best angle in Reds-Cubs is the total, not the side. He recommended playing Under 8.0 and was even stronger on the First-5 Under because both starters have been lights-out. Andrew Abbott owns a 0.90 ERA at Great American Ballpark and has surrendered one or zero earned runs in six of his last seven turns while holding opponents to a .189 average. Shota Iriya has been most effective when he pounds the bottom of the zone (55% ground-ball rate) and has allowed more than two earned only once in his last five outings. Reichel called Cincinnati "feast or famine" offensively and noted Chicago’s lineup scores but rarely erupts, making a 3-2 or 4-3 script likely. Even with shaky bullpens he expects nine solid innings of low contact and advised grabbing the full-game Under before it drops to 7.5.

Although Great American Ball Park screams offense, Mark strongly leans UNDER 9.5. Andrew Abbott owns a 1.80 ERA (3-0) and faces a solid-as-well Ben Rhea (2.38 ERA). Recent trend support: nine of the Reds’ last ten games (90%) have stayed below 9.5 runs, while the Cubs have produced 10+ runs only half the time in that span. With two in-form starters on the mound and both clubs familiar with tight, low-scoring affairs, Mark feels the market is over-reacting to park factors and sees value on the under.

Reichel likes Cincinnati at +105, noting that Andrew Abbott’s 0.90 home ERA and one earned run allowed over his last four starts give the Reds the better mound matchup against Shota Iriya, whose success has mostly come at Wrigley. Abbott’s strike-throwing (5.7% walk rate) should neutralize the Cubs’ patient approach, and Reichel believes the game is essentially a coin flip in which the market is over-valuing Chicago’s offense. He projected a tight 3-2 or 4-3 Reds win and suggested grabbing the dog before the line moves.

Drew Martin recommended laying the modest –120 with the Cubs in Cincinnati because the matchup favors Chicago on several fronts. Starter Colin Rea, a steady 34-year-old, owns a sub-2.50 ERA and a 3-0 record. The Cubs back him with the league’s No. 2 offense versus left-handed pitching by weighted runs created plus and an overall +83 run differential. Reds southpaw Andrew Abbott has strong surface numbers, yet Martin noted they haven’t translated into cashing tickets against him this season. Chicago’s potent lineup against lefties plus better road form led Martin to call the Cubs the side.

Donnie Rightside urged caution backing Cincinnati with Hunter Greene fresh off the IL. Greene had been dealing with a groin strain and, according to Rightside, "you almost never know if the guy is truly 100 percent or just throwing at 90 percent in rehab starts." The spot also brings sneaky hitter-friendly elements—65-degree night at Great American Ballpark with an 8 mph breeze pushing toward left-center. On the other side, lefty Matthew Boyd owns a 3.72 ERA and 3.22 xFIP over his last 29 innings while holding left-handed bats in check. Rightside noted that the Reds' key right-handed sticks have struggled versus southpaws in limited samples: Elly De La Cruz sits on a .032 ISO and .242 wOBA from the right side with a near-25 percent K-rate. Because Greene’s workload and velocity are unknown and Cincinnati’s offense is ill-equipped to punish Boyd, Rightside leaned to the Cubs in what books have lined as a pick’em and recommended staying off any Greene strikeout props until he proves healthy.

Taking the Reds at +110 (Peterson line Reds -104) hinges on Andrew Abbott’s current heater and a stark bullpen edge. Abbott has given up only one earned run total across his last four starts (1.80 ERA in that stretch) and has dropped his season ERA to 1.80. Colin Rea looks good on the surface (2.38 ERA) but a 3.58 FIP and just 6.9 K/9 hint at looming regression. Once the starters exit, Cincinnati turns things over to a relief corps that ranks sixth in MLB with a 3.30 ERA, whereas the Cubs bullpen sits 19th at 4.23. Peterson believes those late-inning advantages flip the game in the Reds’ favor.

Scott Reichel said the Friday opener at Great American Ball Park profiles as an Under, even with an 8.5 total. He pointed out that Cincinnati’s lineup has been wildly streaky all season and currently sits in a cold spell, while Chicago’s Matthew Boyd has logged three straight quality starts and has not allowed more than three earned runs in any outing this year. Hunter Green returns from the IL for the Reds and, when healthy, owns the best stuff on either staff. Reichel added that the Reds have cashed ten straight Unders and that both clubs carry league-average offenses at best, making 8.5 feel “a bit high.”

Lonte Smith said he “really likes Chicago in the spot” despite the tight price. The Cubs have scored five-plus runs in seven of their last nine games, are 7-3 over that stretch, and are batting .273 on the road (.283 over the last 10 overall). Cincinnati, meanwhile, owns a sub-.220 average versus left-handed pitching and has gone Under in ten straight games, which Smith interprets as a sign that the Reds simply are not producing runs. With Hunter Green coming off an IL stint and Chicago swinging the bats well, Smith prefers backing the hotter lineup against a Cincinnati club that can “get blown up at any given time.”

Peterson grabbed the Reds at -101 (made line -139) behind Hunter Greene’s 2.36 ERA and 12 K/9 across his first nine outings. He contrasted that with Cubs starter Matthew Boyd’s 2.98 ERA masking a 3.98 FIP and 1.2 HR/9, plus a Chicago bullpen sitting 19th with a 4.23 ERA. Cincinnati’s relief corps ranks seventh at 3.30, giving Greene better late-game support. The pitching gap and bullpen edge drove Peterson’s 38-cent edge to the moneyline.