Kenny G laid out a full-throated case for Milwaukee at –125. He trusts Freddy Peralta, who sits at 12-4 with a 2.81 ERA and has already blanked the Cubs once at home (6 IP, 0 ER on May 4). Peralta’s only real blemish in his last outing was lack of run support; otherwise he allowed just one earned over five frames. Kenny highlighted that Chicago counters with Shota Imanaga, fresh off an eight-run drubbing by the White Sox and merely average (2 ER in 5⅔) in his lone start against Milwaukee. Ian Happ could miss the game after fouling a ball off his shin, further weakening a Cubs lineup that’s cooled to 3-6 runs in its last five and now faces a bullpen Kenny calls “bumpy.” Meanwhile, the Brewers’ pen is hotter than Chicago’s, and the offense is rolling (nine, eight, three, four, one, ten runs last six). Milwaukee is 35-19 at home while the Cubs are only 29-25 on the road. All of that, plus a tightening NL Central race, makes the Crew the play.

Kenny G recommended laying the –125 moneyline with Milwaukee, calling it his preferred play on the slate. The Brewers have won three straight (and the first two of this series) while the Cubs limp in after Shota Imanaga’s last outing turned into an 8-run disaster against the White Sox. Freddy Peralta brings a 12-4 record and 2.81 ERA, and his home split versus Chicago this season is six shutout innings back on May 4. Milwaukee’s bullpen checks in better than Chicago’s by the numbers, and the Brew Crew offense has plated 9-8-3-4-1-10 in their last six, ranking 7th in MLB runs scored. By contrast, the Cubs may sit 2nd in season-long scoring, but they have produced just 3-4-5-6-5 across their last five and could be without Ian Happ (shin x-rays). Home/road splits also favor Milwaukee (35-19 home) over Chicago (29-25 road). With Peralta’s swing-and-miss stuff, a hot lineup, and a bullpen edge, Kenny trusts Milwaukee to widen its NL Central lead.

Brad Free Pick Dawgz laid the money-line with Milwaukee, noting the Cubs have dropped four straight as underdogs against National-League foes. The Brewers counter with Freddy Peralta, whose home splits are ‘damn near flawless’ according to Brad, giving the Crew a clear edge on the mound. On the other side, Shota Imanaga is coming off his worst outing of the season, which Brad believes is a sign Chicago’s rookie may finally be regressing. With Peralta’s dominance in American Family Field and the Cubs stumbling, Brad expects Milwaukee to keep rolling.

Bill Harrelson recommended OVER 0.5 total bases for Matt Shaw in Wednesday’s Cubs-Brewers matchup. Shaw has reached safely in 9 of his last 10 games and in 10 of the last 11 overall, including two bases against Milwaukee yesterday. His 73-game rookie sample shows a 55% hit rate on this prop, but the contact surge is more pronounced lately—averaging 2.5 total bases on roughly four plate appearances per game during the 11-game heater. Books are in agreement: both Hard Rock and Bet365 have juiced the over, signaling market support. While starter Freddy Peralta has been sharper versus righties and Shaw’s own splits dip slightly against right-handed pitching, the disparity is small enough that Harrelson expects one swing—or a walk plus a steal—to cash the ticket.

B Wade backed Pete Crow-Armstrong to go OVER 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs even with Freddy Peralta on the bump. Crow-Armstrong has cashed this number in 7 of his past 10 outings and in 5 of 7 meetings with Milwaukee this season. Versus right-handers he owns a strong split, and specifically against Peralta he is 3-for-7 with a homer. Wade pointed out that Peralta’s ERA (2.9) looks scary but his WHIP is still north of 1.00, meaning traffic on the bases. At plus money, Wade sees value in riding Crow-Armstrong’s current form and his proven success against the Brewers.

Matt Perrault backed Milwaukee on the money line at -115 to finish a three-game sweep of Chicago. He noted that left-hander Shota Imanaga draws the start for the Cubs and the Brewers have consistently punished southpaws, citing their earlier win over Clayton Kershaw as evidence. Freddie Peralta gets the ball for Milwaukee; the club had won six straight Peralta starts before a 5-1 bullpen meltdown in Miami where Peralta allowed just one solo homer in five innings. Perrault thinks oddsmakers are still undervaluing a first-place team that would move three games clear of Chicago with a win. Game total opened 7.5, but Perrault preferred the side due to potential bullpen volatility.

Martin laid the –115 with Milwaukee, explaining that Shota Imanaga’s velocity dipped below 90 mph in his last outing when he surrendered 12 hits and seven earned to the White Sox, signaling possible fatigue. On the other side, Freddy Peralta is 12-4 with a 2.80 ERA and has rattled off seven straight winning decisions while piling up 131 strikeouts. Milwaukee’s bullpen grades better in Martin’s numbers, and the Brewers line-up has produced enough to keep first place in the NL Central. Given the starting-pitching momentum and relief edge, he felt the market was pricing the Brewers too cheaply at only 15 cents.

Just A Bet Outside advised riding Quinn Priester and the Brewers until the wheels fall off. Priester has surrendered two or fewer earned runs in nine of his last eleven outings and owns a 2.41 ERA over that span. Milwaukee has cashed ten straight money-lines behind him (Steven admitted it could be nine but said he is treating it as ten), showing the club regularly gives him enough run support. Opposing starter Colin Rea just cratered for five earned in five innings versus Kansas City and now draws a hot Brewers lineup in a hitter-friendly park. Steven likes Milwaukee on both the first-five and full-game lines, noting Priester’s command gains (5.8% walk rate in July) and 51% ground-ball profile play perfectly against a Cubs offense that ranks 27th in wOBA versus right-handed sinkers.

Guy Boston Sports recommended grabbing Chicago at +108 and playing the OVER 7.5 in Brewers-Cubs. He noted both starters look better on paper than they truly are: Milwaukee is 5-0 behind Quinn Priester, but he doubts the rookie keeps dodging barrels forever; Colin Rea’s team is 4-1 in his last five, yet he was ‘smacked around’ by Kansas City for three homers and six runs in only five frames. The market has reacted by dropping the total to 7.5, a number the tout called an over-reaction given these lineups: Chicago has plated 4-6-5-5-4 runs in the last five, while Milwaukee has scored 8-3-4-1-10. With mid-80s temperatures inside American Family Field and only a light breeze toward first, run-scoring conditions are decent. He trusts the Cubs offense for a bounce-back and sees value any time Priester is a road favorite, projecting a 5-4 type final.

Jay Yang advised fading Colin Rea in any betting or DFS context, laying out five red-flag metrics. Rea owns a strikeout rate under 7.0 K/9, dangerous against a Milwaukee order ranking top-5 in hard-contact rate the last two weeks. His WHIP spikes to 1.27–1.35 with runners on, exposing him to blow-up innings. Both his swinging-strike percentage and chase rate sit in the bottom 25 % of qualified pitchers, and a 4.50 FIP marks him as a regression candidate. Finally, Rea has struggled historically against NL Central foes, including Milwaukee and St. Louis. Yang called him "risky" and a pitcher to fade Tuesday.

Jay Yang said to back the Brewers on the moneyline because Quinn Priester has quietly turned into Milwaukee’s most reliable starter. Over his last five outings Priester has surrendered two or fewer earned runs each time, highlighted by a seven-inning shutout with 11 strikeouts against the Dodgers. Yang contrasted that stability with Colin Rea’s mediocrity and noted that Milwaukee’s lineup has climbed into the top-5 in hard-contact rate over the past two weeks and historically hits well at Wrigley. With the Brewers trending up at the plate and sending a red-hot Priester to the mound, Yang labeled Milwaukee ML the bet.

Eric Lindquist has already wagered on Quinn Priester’s strikeout over, noting the Milwaukee right-hander’s K-rate has climbed to 20.5% after a month-long pitch-mix tweak featuring more slider-sinker combos. The revamped arsenal has been ‘lethal to lefties,’ which matters against a Chicago lineup that could again lead off with Michael Busch (24.2% K-rate) and still guarantees right-handed bats Seiya Suzuki and Dansby Swanson, both whiffing above 27%. With sportsbooks still hanging sub-market strikeout totals on Priester, Lindquist sees clear value before lines adjust.

Dylan Rockford made Milwaukee –130 yet found them around –110 and pounced. Mizorowski has allowed a lone run in three home starts (3-0 team record) and Milwaukee sits 15 games over .500 at home. While Boyd’s story is great, Rockford doubts he can keep posting zeros against a Brewers lineup that owns a 117 wRC+ versus left-handers and has the league’s fourth-lowest strike-out rate in that split. He also noted Chicago’s bullpen showed cracks on the recent West-Coast trip. Rockford will gladly take the discounted price on the hotter club.

Just A Bet Outside wagered on Tobias "The Miz" Myers to record 6+ strikeouts at −124. Myers has cleared this mark in four of six MLB starts; the two misses came when he was blown up early by the Mets and when he debuted on an 81-pitch leash yet still notched five punch-outs. Overall he owns 40 strikeouts in just 29.1 innings (12.3 K/9) and an elite 25 Ks in 16 home frames. The host acknowledged a modest ceiling — Myers threw only 64 pitches last outing — but argued that 70-80 pitches in a crucial divisional game should be enough given his whiff rate. Chicago is a low-K lineup, yet recent right-handers with far less swing-and-miss ability (Aaron Civale, Seth Lugo, Lucas Giolito) have still reached six strikeouts this month. With the Cubs having never seen Myers’ nasty arsenal and the line shaded down for pitch-count concerns, the tout sees plus expected value on the over.