Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers

Guy Boston recommends betting Cincinnati Reds on the first five innings moneyline today against Milwaukee to avoid bullpen uncertainties. He emphasizes Milwaukee's bullpen, which has been shaky and heavily taxed recently, compared to Cincinnati's fresher relief arms. This strategy looks wiser to him considering volatility in late-game pitching, preferring the shorter, safer first-five innings wager.

Guy Boston sees betting value playing under 1.5 hits, runs and RBIs for Spencer Steer today due to Steer's struggles against left-handed pitching. Although he's somewhat reluctant due to Nestor Cortes's disastrous first start (5 home runs allowed), he still identifies Steer's splits against lefties as highly problematic enough to lean unders here despite Cortes' recent struggles.

Guy Boston expects Cincinnati's offense to rebound from their recent struggles (shut out in back-to-back games) against Nestor Cortes today. He highlights Cortes' exceptionally poor first start against the Yankees, where he allowed five home runs, five walks and eight earned runs in only two innings. While acknowledging the Reds typically fare worse against lefties, Guy Boston points to Cortes' fastball-cutter pitch arsenal matching favorable for Cincinnati hitters who excel against velocity-driven pitchers.

Guy Boston advised betting against Nick Lodolo again today, highlighting his consistently poor pitching numbers despite a tolerable batting average allowed (.231). Lodolo struggled significantly last season with a concerning 4.76 ERA and a .290 BABIP, reflecting frequent hard contact allowed. He has already surrendered at least two runs once this season against the Giants and exhibited long-term patterns of vulnerability, having a notably poor finish to last season. Although the Brewers offense is neither elite nor terrible against left-handed pitching, sitting about league-average last year and again in early 2025, Guy Boston noted they are capable enough offensively to capitalize against Lodolo's persistent shortcomings. Despite the prop's slightly unfavorable juice (-150), Guy Boston sees clear metrics supporting the Brewers scoring at least two runs on Lodolo and considers this a highly actionable wager.

Guy Boston backs Nick Lodolo to surrender at least 2 earned runs against the Brewers, pointing to Lodolo's consistent struggles last season. Lodolo exceeded this earned run total in 71% of his outings last year and in his only game so far in 2025 against the Giants. He notably ended last year on a 10-game streak surpassing this line, averaging 2.9 earned runs allowed per start in 2024. His one start last season against Milwaukee resulted in him allowing 3 earned runs. While the Brewers were only middle-of-the-road against left-handed pitchers last season and this year, Lodolo's consistently poor performances make Guy Boston confident in this play, even at the higher juice of -150 odds.

Since starting the season 0-for-5, Jackson Chourio has caught fire, hitting safely in each subsequent game and homering Wednesday. Zach Thompson supported Chourio as an undervalued DFS target for Thursday, highlighting his early-season success against lefty pitching and strong recent hitting. Facing Nick Lodolo, Thompson recommended Chourio as a DFS value chasing strong recent form vs left-handers (5-for-16, .313, with power).

Zach Thompson identified Nestor Cortes as a buy-low MLB DFS candidate after a brutal Brewers debut, where Cortes gave up eight runs and five homers in just two innings. Despite this nightmare outing, Thompson highlighted Cortes's previous season's solid metrics (3.77 ERA, 3.84 FIP, 8.4 K/9) and his strong spring (four runs in 11 innings, 14 strikeouts) as indicators of better performances to come. The Reds struggled heavily against left-handed pitching last season, ranking in the bottom 10 in most offensive categories, setting Cortes up for a favorable bounce-back matchup at home.

Zach Thompson endorsed Nick Lodolo as a strong MLB DFS pitching play at Milwaukee. In his opening game this season, Lodolo pitched well (six innings, two earned runs), but curiously recorded only one strikeout, far below his impressive rates from last year (9.5 K/9) and spring (9.8 K/9). Thompson sees this as a clear opportunity for strikeout regression, especially given Lodolo's superior road splits from last year (3.56 ERA, 3.23 FIP). The Brewers offer a fine matchup for strikeout upside, making Lodolo particularly appealing in the DFS slate.

Michael Savio projects Reds pitcher Nick Lodolo to have a tough game tonight against the Brewers. Milwaukee’s lineup is heating up, scoring eight times in their last two games following a slow start. Lodolo struggled badly in his most recent start at Milwaukee last August, allowing three runs over 5 1/3 innings. With Milwaukee's Jackson Chourio and the Brewers lineup clicking, Savio expects Lodolo's struggles at American Family Field to continue tonight.

Tristan H. Cockcroft pointed out Nestor Cortes as a potential streaming candidate despite his disastrous season opener against the Yankees, which included surrendering five home runs and issuing five walks. Cockcroft attributed the poor performance partially to first-game jitters against his former team. Returning to Milwaukee (American Family Field), a park that suppresses hits and inflates strikeouts despite being friendly to home runs, provides Cortes an excellent bounce-back scenario. Given the sparse selection of starters on Thursday's slate, Cortes presents high strikeout upside if his first outing proves an anomaly.

Michael Savio identified Nestor Cortes as likely to rebound tonight against an uninspired Reds lineup currently experiencing a two-game shutout streak. Although Cortes was heavily hit by the Yankees in his season debut, nearly the entire Brewers pitching staff struggled in that series, making the poor outing an outlier. Now facing Cincinnati's ice-cold offense, Cortes stands an excellent chance to return to form and deliver a winning performance for Milwaukee.

Michael Savio noted Jackson Chourio to be heating up and making the Brewers lineup more dangerous against Reds' starter Nick Lodolo. After an uneven start, Chourio is hitting his stride just as Milwaukee’s offense has scored eight runs over the past two games. Lodolo, on the other hand, struggled significantly in his previous game at Milwaukee last August, allowing three runs over 5 1/3 innings. Considering Milwaukee’s momentum and Chourio's resurgence, Savio expects Lodolo and the Reds to have difficulty tonight.

Data Skrive's model sees value in the road underdog Cincinnati Reds (-104 money line) against the Brewers. Each team is off to a shaky 2-4 start, but the computer modeling suggests the Reds are in position to pull out a win here. With the total set at 7.5, the projections indicate a strong likelihood this game also goes 'Over', benefiting bettors who expect a bit more offense at American Family Field.

Eric Lindquist identified the Cincinnati Reds moneyline (-105) as a potential value bet, emphasizing a bounce-back opportunity for pitcher Nick Lodolo. Despite Lodolo only recording one strikeout in six innings in his debut, Lindquist expects significant positive regression, emphasizing Lodolo's considerable strikeout upside and a curveball he compares to Chris Sale's signature pitch. Although Milwaukee's home park isn't typically pitcher-friendly, Lindquist believes Lodolo's underlying strikeout profile makes the Reds a strong play, especially if the line shifts into plus money by game time.

Greg Peterson is betting on a strong bounce-back from Brewers starter Nestor Cortes. Cortes had a horrific start against the Yankees (five home runs allowed, eight total earned runs in two innings), but Peterson points out his overall career ERA outside Yankee Stadium is respectable (3.94 ERA). He adds that, despite extensive bullpen use this season (5th-most innings pitched per game), Milwaukee's powerful offense last season (6th in runs per game) supports backing Brewers at -108 vs his implied fair line of -131.

Peter Dewey advised backing the Cincinnati Reds on the moneyline against the Milwaukee Brewers due to the strong pitching matchup advantage. He emphasized Reds starter Nick Lodolo's quality first start, giving up just two runs over six innings against the Giants. He contrasted this with Brewers starter Nestor Cortes, who struggled badly in his initial outing, surrendering eight runs on six hits, five walks, and allowing five home runs in just two innings against the Yankees. Cortes's poor form continues a worrying trend from previous seasons, including posting a 4.97 ERA in 2023, and despite improving slightly to 3.77 in 2024, allowing 24 homers. Dewey feels this pitching edge makes Cincinnati a value as slight moneyline underdogs.

Dylan Rockford emphasizes the over 7.5 runs between the Brewers and Reds, expecting offensive production given pitching concerns. He noted that his own statistical projections have the total around 8.4 runs, significantly higher than the available line. Rockford specifically identified Nestor Cortes' extreme struggles in his initial outing as a major factor driving this over play. While he did recognize the Reds' poor early results against lefties, he nonetheless believes their offense is capable and due to rebound after being shut out recently. Additionally, Rockford cited Milwaukee's improving offense as a sign this total may close significantly higher, solidifying confidence in betting the over despite its slight juice at minus 128.

Scott Reichel sees clear betting value in backing the Reds as a small underdog against Milwaukee due to the significant pitching advantage of Nick Lodolo over Nestor Cortes. Reichel highlighted Cortes' shockingly bad first outing this season, giving up three home runs immediately against the Yankees and resulting in a 36.00 ERA. He noted Cortes' previous struggles dating back to the end of last season, indicating possible longer-term deterioration. By contrast, he described Lodolo as the considerably superior pitcher in the matchup. Although acknowledging Cincinnati's recent scoring drought, Reichel strongly believes backing Lodolo at approximately even-money is worthwhile against a severely struggling Cortes, and sees the Reds as well-positioned to exploit this pitching mismatch.

Kyle Purviance recommends betting the over on Nick Lodolo's strikeouts due to the Brewers' extremely high strikeout tendencies so far. Despite playing just six games, Milwaukee already has 68 team strikeouts, second-most in MLB and approaching the Cubs who played three more games. Against left-handed pitching specifically, they have struck out 40 times in 123 at-bats, hitting just .220 with a slugging percentage of .309 and only two home runs. Purviance expects the strikeout prop for Lodolo at around 5.5 or 6.5, lower than usual due to Lodolo's recent rough outing, thereby seeing added value in going over against this favorable Brewers matchup.

Kyle Purviance favors betting the Reds first five innings run line at +120, driven by pitching advantage with Nick Lodolo over Nestor Cortez. Last time out, Lodolo showed stronger form compared to Cortez, who allowed three consecutive home runs. While cautious about full-game bets due to the Reds' weak bullpen compared to Milwaukee's elite relievers, Purviance expects Cincinnati to establish an early lead. He acknowledges potential concerns about the Reds hitting poorly against lefties in limited samples, but still favors Cincinnati's early batting advantage over struggling Nestor Cortez, also emphasizing the Brewers' early offensive struggles versus left-handed pitching.

Bettor Mark sees great value in betting the Reds on the money line (+100) against the Brewers. He emphasized the quality pitching matchup with Nick Lodolo starting, coupled with distrust in Milwaukee's bats and pitching staff. After Cincinnati failed to score despite numerous scoring chances in a shutout loss the day prior, Mark expects them to be particularly motivated offensively. He views the even-money odds as excellent betting value in this divisional matchup scenario.

Matt Perrault recommended backing Nick Lodolo and the Reds on the money line against the Brewers. He noted Lodolo had a solid first outing, going 6 innings allowing just 2 earned runs and 5 hits. Meanwhile, Brewers pitcher Nestor Cortez struggled mightily in his opener, getting shelled for 8 earned runs and 5 home runs in just two innings vs the Yankees. Perrault anticipates Cortez may again struggle, providing an ideal spot for Cincinnati's offense to wake up after back-to-back shutouts. He considers Lodolo a pitcher he trusted repeatedly last season and expects that to continue in a pitching matchup with a clear advantage for the Reds.