Guy Boston advised grabbing plus‑money on the Cubs thanks to a classic handicap: an underrated lefty arm versus a Dodgers lineup that still has not solved southpaws. Matthew Boyd sports a 2.21 ERA and 28 % strikeout rate at Wrigley in 2025 and already held LA to three runs over 6‑plus innings earlier this month. The Dodgers rank 25th in wRC+ and dead‑last in isolated power against left‑handed pitching—even with all those All‑Star names—so Guy is comfortable fading them until the split improves. Rookie Landon Sauer gets the spot start for LA after just three AAA outings (1.50 ERA, 0.70 WHIP) and only one career MLB appearance, making his true baseline a mystery. Chicago’s offense, eighth in runs per game, draws the softer matchup and forces Dave Roberts to lean on a bullpen that threw 6.1 innings last night. Guy’s secondary angle is a Dodgers first‑five team‑total under 3, but the official call is Cubs money line as juicy underdogs.

The handicapper played the OVER, stressing that both offenses are locked in and bullpens are shaky. The Cubs have scored six or more runs in three of their last four outings, while the Dodgers have plated at least five in four of seven. L.A. has yet to announce a starter, creating more uncertainty, and Chicago’s relief corps owns one of MLB’s highest late‑inning ERAs. Given that Tuesday produced a wild 11‑10 final, the tout expects another shootout.

Cash Out Sports Picks likes Los Angeles on the money line, noting a classic get‑right angle after dropping three straight to Chicago. The Dodgers’ bullpen has been a season‑long strength despite Tuesday’s meltdown, and they face left‑hander Matthew Boyd for the second time in two weeks. Chicago is just 1‑3 in Boyd’s four starts, while L.A. owns the league’s second‑best wRC+ versus southpaws. With the series tied 3‑3, the handicapper expects the deeper Dodgers staff to seize control.

Zerillo pounded Over 9 runs (good to -107) in Dodgers‑Cubs after Chicago logged 24 combined runs Friday and 21 on Tuesday. With Bobby Miller optioned, Los Angeles is forced into a bullpen game headlined by rookie Ben Casparius—an intriguing arm (133‑Stuff+ slider) but still a multi‑inning reliever. The Cubs counter with Matthew Boyd, whose shiny 3.33 xERA is belied by ugly model grades (86 Pitching+, 4.56 botERA) and projections around a 4.00 FIP. Chicago’s relief corps is a tire fire (27th in xFIP, 6.7% K‑BB%), and both clubs are rested thanks to off‑days Monday and Thursday, ensuring managers can chase runs without worrying about bullpen fatigue. Given Wrigley’s recent slugfests and Boyd’s impending regression, Zerillo expects another shootout.

The model lists Chicago as the better side in Wednesday’s coin‑flip matchup at Wrigley, recommending Cubs -110 over a Dodgers club still licking its wounds from Tuesday’s 11‑10 collapse. Data Skrive cites Chicago’s 15‑10 record (11‑6 in games decided by three runs or fewer) and the bullpen’s 2.98 ERA over the last two weeks as edges against a Los Angeles relief corps that has blown three saves on the current trip. The simulation projects a run‑fest (Over 9) with two mid‑rotation right‑handers on the bump and wind forecasted out to right at 14 mph. DFS and prop bettors can translate that game environment into extra plate appearances for the top half of the Cubs order.

Caleb Wilfinger backed the Cubs moneyline at -105, arguing Los Angeles is walking into a perfect storm after Tuesday’s extra‑inning collapse. The Dodgers burned six relievers—including both high‑leverage arms—and will now attempt a full bullpen game. Chicago, by contrast, got more length from its starter and brings a far fresher pen into Wednesday’s matchup. Wilfinger highlighted lefty Matthew Boyd’s quietly dominant start to 2025 (2.02 ERA, 3.33 xERA, 2.29 xBA, top‑9% hard‑hit rate) and noted that the Cubs’ offense ranks top‑5 in batting average, slugging, runs, and OPS. With Boyd expected to keep the champs in check and Chicago’s bats poised to pounce on a pieced‑together Dodger staff, Wilfinger sees value on the Cubs to clinch the series at Wrigley.

Kenny G recommended backing the Cubs on a first‑five‑innings moneyline instead of the full game. His logic centers on Shota Imanaga, who tossed four scoreless frames against Los Angeles on March 18 and owns the type of swing‑and‑miss stuff that can neutralize a right‑heavy Dodgers lineup early. Chicago’s offense has been far better than preseason expectations—first in MLB in runs and sixth in batting average after posting individual game totals of 13, 16 and 10 runs—so Kenny trusts them to scratch a couple off Dustin May before the bullpens enter. Avoiding that pen is key because the Cubs’ relievers sit bottom‑four in ERA, whereas the Dodgers boast a top‑tier unit. With L.A. just 4‑5 on the road and the Cubs 6‑3 at Wrigley, he felt the even‑money first‑five price captured all of the edge while removing the late‑inning risk.

Eric Lindquist put a quarter‑unit on Will Smith over 1.5 total bases (–105) and another quarter‑unit on Smith to homer at +300 versus left‑hander Shota Imanaga. He highlighted Wrigley Field’s forecasted wind blowing out and Imanaga’s increasing hard contact as the weather warms. Smith already owns a 25.9° average launch angle this year—elite for back‑spin homers—and is barreling balls at a top‑15 catcher clip. With the Dodgers likely to hit Smith fifth behind Freddie Freeman and Teoscar Hernandez, Lindquist expects multiple RBI spots and believes +300 is still short of his modeled +250 true odds for a long ball.

Mills Young advised betting Dustin May over 4.5 strike‑outs against the Cubs. Young noted May regularly racks up two strike‑outs in a single inning and therefore does not need a long leash to cash. Because Dave Roberts rarely lets May pitch past the middle of the fifth, Young stressed that the early‑inning swing‑and‑miss profile is critical. After mistakenly taking an under in May’s previous start, he is correcting course, citing the matchup with a Chicago lineup that has whiffed at a top‑10 clip versus right‑handed four‑seam/curveball combinations.

Kyle Purviance said he is willing to grab the Cubs at +102 because Shota Imanaga faces a Los Angeles lineup that is striking out 8.35 times per game—the 17th‑highest mark in baseball. Purviance noted that the left‑handed Imanaga profiles well against a Dodgers order that is heavier on lefty‑splits this season, and he reminded listeners that plus‑money underdogs have been profitable when L.A.’s strikeout totals creep above eight. While admitting the line feels like a ‘trap,’ Kyle prefers being on the plus side of a possible setup and compared it to Sunday’s Padres line that cashed despite looking suspicious. He framed the play strictly as a value bet on a live dog rather than a fade of Los Angeles’ overall talent.

For totals, the tout likes the under. Imanaga has spun a sub‑1.00 ERA, giving up a run or fewer in 4/5 outings, while May has surrendered just two earned in three starts. Both lineups enter chilly—LA has totaled seven runs in its last three games and has scored three or fewer in six of nine; the Cubs have cashed the under in four of five. Weather in Chicago looks rough, potentially cutting into BP routines and suppressing flight. With two stingy WHIPs and recent under trends (2‑1 for May, 4‑1 for Imanaga), a pitchers’ duel is the expectation.

Cash Out Sports Picks prefers the Cubs money line because of the mound matchup and lineup splits. Shota Imanaga has allowed one run or fewer in four of five starts and routinely works into the 6th‑7th, whereas Dustin May is still on a post‑surgery leash, averaging just over five innings. May has six walks in 17 innings and half of his strikeouts came against the punchless Rockies. LA’s offense is weaker versus left‑handers, giving Imanaga another angle. Combine Chicago’s revenge narrative after losing in Japan with the longer outing likely from their ace and an exploitable Dodgers bullpen window, and the Cubs are the value play at Wrigley.

Joe Jensen said the Dodgers are a "steal" at -121 on the money line Tuesday at Wrigley. He acknowledged Shota Imanaga’s strong first two MLB starts (15 K, 12 IP, 1 W, 0 L) but expects him to stumble against a Dodgers lineup that ranks 2nd in home runs and just battered two playoff‑caliber staffs on its way to a 7‑3 stretch. Jensen pointed to L.A.’s depth (Shohei Ohtani, Freddie Freeman, Tommy Edman all homered twice in the past week) and consistent success in night games (12‑4) versus Chicago’s bullpen that just blew an extra‑inning lead Sunday. With Dustin May coming off a six‑inning, one‑run gem and the Dodgers undefeated in series play, Jensen advised backing Los Angeles on the money line rather than laying the run line or chasing the over/under.

Drew Dinsick also played the over 8.0 runs despite the Under cashing in each of the Dodgers’ last three games. He expects regression toward offense because both clubs rank top‑7 in MLB in hard‑hit rate and will benefit from a full‑strength lineup (Shohei Ohtani back after paternity leave, Cody Bellinger recovered from illness). His projections hand the matchup a median of 8.7 runs with each bullpen showing signs of fatigue—L.A. relievers threw 12 innings over the weekend and the Cubs’ pen owns a collective 5.06 ERA for the season. That half‑run cushion over the posted total created enough edge to side with the over.

While still projecting the Dodgers to win outright, Drew Dinsick’s simulations show a high likelihood of a one‑run game, prompting a lean to Chicago +1.5 on the run line. He highlighted Shota Imanaga’s 2.22 ERA and 29% strikeout rate that have kept the Cubs in every one of his starts, plus the familiarity factor after already facing L.A. twice this year. The Cubs have covered the +1.5 spread in three of the five meetings, and Wrigley Field’s run‑suppressing conditions in early spring increase the probability of a tight, low‑scoring contest. His model gives the Cubs a 62% chance to stay within a run, well above the implied 55%.

Drew Dinsick recommended playing Los Angeles at -120, arguing the number is too cheap given current form and matchup edges. He pointed out that Dustin May owns a 1.06 ERA with a 0.78 WHIP through three starts and is coming off 6 IP, 7‑K, 0‑BB dominance of Colorado. The Dodgers have won five of their last six and already hold a 3‑2 season series lead on Chicago after sweeping the two games in Tokyo. Dinsick noted Shota Imanaga has issued seven walks over his past two outings (3 BB in his most recent start at San Diego) and the Cubs bullpen posted a 1.60 WHIP over the past week, numbers that tilt the late‑inning edge toward Los Angeles. His model makes L.A. -137, creating enough value to fire on the moneyline.

Peterson grabbed Chicago at +108 (makes them -116). Shota Imanaga owns a 2.81 ERA and stingy 1.7 BB/9 since arriving from Japan, whereas Dustin May’s sparkling 1.06 ERA hides red flags: his FIP is 2x higher, powered by just 7.4 K/9 and 3.2 BB/9. The Cubs also lead MLB in runs per game. With the better underlying pitcher and the hotter lineup, Peterson likes the home underdog.

Scott Reichel grabbed the Dodgers moneyline at roughly –120, arguing the number is too cheap given several edges. 1) The lineup already faced Shota Imanaga during the Tokyo Series, giving Los Angeles a rare second look at a newcomer and a stack of fresh scouting reports. 2) Dustin May’s stuff has returned after offseason elbow concerns—1.80 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, 58 % ground‑ball rate and a 19.6 % K‑BB spread through three outings—so Reichel rates the starting matchup as a wash at worst. 3) The Dodgers remain the deeper, more powerful offense (118 wRC+ vs RHP compared to Chicago’s 98) and project to add late insurance against a Cubs bullpen that owns a 4.61 xFIP. Even with both relief units shakier than usual, Reichel expects L.A.’s superior bats and Imanaga familiarity to tilt a high‑leverage finish their way, making the short price a bet he ‘has to take’.

Bamford jumped on Dodgers −120 behind a healthy, filthy‑looking Dustin May (1.80 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, 19.6 K‑BB%) in three starts. He acknowledged Shota Imanaga has been solid overall but pointed out the lefty’s lone Wrigley appearance turned ugly—five earned in 4.2 innings against Texas—and that Los Angeles already saw him during the Tokyo Series, giving their elite lineup a valuable second look. May’s heavy sinker/slider combo keeps the ball on the ground (58% GB) and should neutralize Chicago’s power alley to right center. With the Cubs strike‑out prone (24.8% vs RHP) and LA’s bullpen ranking top‑5 in xFIP, Bamford considers −120 a bargain to ride May’s breakout and the Dodgers’ depth against an opponent whose home starter remains unproven stateside.