Guy Boston is backing the Cubs −0.5 on the first-five run line despite a juiced price. Jameson Taillon has opened 2025 with a 2.78 ERA and a 23 % K-rate while holding opponents to a .284 xwOBA. On the other side, Ryan Weathers is making his season debut after a forearm issue and is likely capped near 70 pitches. Boston noted Miami’s bullpen owns the worst WPA in baseball and that strong winds blowing in at Wrigley should mitigate Chicago’s own offensive volatility. He also mentioned Weathers’ career 5.43 FIP and below-average slider whiff rate as additional reasons the Cubs should scratch out a 2–3 run cushion by the middle innings.

Scott Reichel recommended Nico Hoerner over 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs at –125 against Ryan Weathers. Hoerner has cashed this combo in 15 of his last 20 games (75%) and in 13 of his last 17 at Wrigley. Reichel noted the shortstop’s current on-base streak, the likelihood of drawing a walk against Weathers’ shaky command, and Chicago’s ability to put runners aboard even during their recent offensive lull. With Weathers limited to roughly 75 pitches and projected to induce ground-balls (Hoerner’s strength), Reichel expects multiple opportunities for Hoerner to reach base and either knock in or score a run.

Adam Rosenberg said to bet Ryan Weathers over 2.5 walks at +135 in his first Marlins start of the season. Rosenberg expects the left-hander to ‘walk the farm’ because Weathers has chronic control problems: eight walks in four spring-training outings and four walks in his most recent AAA rehab start despite ABS strike-zone assistance. Miami plans to cap him at roughly 75 pitches, limiting strikeout upside and forcing him to nibble. The Cubs have drawn three or more walks against every left-handed starter they’ve faced this year and own a strong walk rate over their last 30 plate appearances versus southpaws. Rosenberg framed it as a binary debut—either strikeouts or free passes—and is betting on the latter.

The tout is laying the money line with the Cubs. Despite Jameson Taillon’s ugly six-run, four-homer outing versus the Mets, he still owns a 4.53 ERA, 1.17 WHIP and 35 K/9 BB over 43.2 IP, and he has historically handled Miami. Conversely the Marlins rank dead last in staff ERA and 29th in WHIP, are starting Ryan Weathers on a 57-pitch limit, and have dropped 12 of their last 15. Chicago led the NL with 233 runs entering the series and is "getting hot again," so Cash Out Sports Picks sees little reason to give the free-falling Fish the benefit of the doubt.

Rockford ignored the juice on Chicago and took Over 8, projecting 8.4 runs. Taillon has allowed two or more earned in six of eight outings, and Wrigley overs are 13-7. The Cubs destroy left-handed pitching, a bad recipe for debuting southpaw Ryan Weathers, and both bullpens reside in MLB’s bottom ten. Rockford expects Miami’s improving lineup to contribute, but sees Chicago clearing its team-total on the way to a 6-4 style finish. He recommended a Cubs team-total over for bettors squeamish about the full-game number.

Bamford played the first-five under with a pitching-centric handicap. Ryan Weathers debuts after posting a 2.04 road ERA last season, and Jameson Taillon owns a tidy 2.50 ERA in three Wrigley starts. While both clubs trend over for the full game, Bamford trusts the starters far more than two bottom-ten bullpens and wants no part of late-inning chaos. He expects a clean 0-0 or 2-1 type score through five before relievers potentially blow things up.

Kenny G circled the 8-run total at Wrigley and said the Over is very much "alive." His case starts with Miami’s pitching: 25-year-old Ryan Weathers is making his first start of the year after a forearm issue, so the Marlins will likely lean on a bullpen that owns a 5.05 ERA (5th-worst). Chicago’s relief corps is nearly as shaky at 4.86, meaning late-inning fireworks are on the table. Offensively the Cubs are carrying the mail—2nd in MLB in runs and 9th in batting average—despite Ian Happ hitting the IL. Nico Hoerner and friends have produced at least four runs in six of their last eight. The park and scheduling trends agree: Miami is 12-6 to the Over on the road, while the Cubs are 11-6-1 to the Over at home. Kenny admitted punters should check the wind direction at Wrigley, but he expects Chicago to "have a field day" versus Weathers and thinks even Miami can scratch out runs against Jameson Taillon once the right-hander gives way to that leaky pen. Getting to nine runs feels very realistic, so Kenny prefers the Over rather than laying the hefty –220 with Chicago.

Kyle Purviance plans to lay the Cubs moneyline—even at the early ‑225 price—versus Miami and left-hander Ryan Weathers. Chicago leads MLB in wRC+ (142) and OPS (.889) against southpaws, while Weathers carries a 5.44 ERA, 1.6 HR/9 and ranks in the 10th percentile in hard-hit avoidance. Purviance likened Weathers to 'the Matt Harvey of 2025' and said the number should open closer to ‑275 once bettors notice the platoon mismatch. He is not worried about Jameson Taillon’s league-average profile because Miami’s offense sits 29th in slugging and dead-last in barrel rate. Any line shorter than ‑240 is a buy in his view.

B Wade recommended Seiya Suzuki over 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs despite only a 50 % season hit rate. The edge comes from Suzuki’s ridiculous splits: he is batting .314 with four homers in just 35 at-bats against left-handers—a homer every nine ABs—versus a .239 overall average. He’ll see Marlins southpaw Ryan Weathers making his first start of 2025, which Wade expects to be a rusty outing. That matchup upgrade plus Suzuki’s power surge against lefties makes the over worth the 4.5× payout on Underdog.

B Wade locked in Nico Hoerner over 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs at –119, noting Hoerner has hit this mark in 67 % of 2025 contests and in four straight games. Against Marlins left-hander Ryan Weathers he is 2-for-5 lifetime, and Hoerner’s .367 average versus lefties dwarfs his .281 season clip. Those splits, plus a 75 % hit rate over his last 20 games, convinced Wade the prop should be closer to –160.

Welsh noted that Drew Pomeranz has thrown seven scoreless innings since joining the Cubs, posting eight strikeouts and a sparkling 0.52 WHIP. With Chicago wanting Ryan Pressly “nowhere near” ninth-inning work on certain nights and Porter Hodge occasionally unavailable, Welsh believes Pomeranz can pick up one-off saves and is "a nice deeper-league speculative guy." He compared the veteran’s current run to Shelby Miller’s early 2023 stretch with Arizona and recommended stashing Pomeranz in formats where every potential closer matters, while acknowledging Porter Hodge remains the favorite for the majority of save chances.

Mark Zinno said the full-game over 8 runs in Marlins-Cubs is worth firing on. He pointed out that Miami starter Valente Bellozo has yet to work past the fifth inning in four starts and is now followed by a Marlins bullpen he labeled "terrible." On the Chicago side, Ben Brown owns a 7.91 ERA at Wrigley (14 walks, 29 hits, .341 BAA in five home outings) despite sparkling road numbers. Zinno added that Brown receives the highest run support in MLB at 8.86 runs per start— the Cubs have scored at least four runs in seven of his eight appearances with final scores such as 18-3, 16-0, and 10-0. Even though Chicago’s bats have cooled, Zinno trusts them at home against that bullpen and expects the weak Marlins offense to scratch out runs versus Brown’s shaky home splits, making eight runs “a bargain” in his words.

Malcolm Bamford targeted the full-game over (waiting on Wrigley wind but expecting 8.5) in Marlins-Cubs. He pointed out that Miami is 17-12 to the over versus right-handed pitching while Chicago is 18-12 in that same split. Cubs starter Ben Brown owns a bloated 7.91 ERA and 14 walks across five home starts, and Bamford doesn’t buy rookie Valente Bellozo’s profile either—too many free passes and a disastrous lone outing at Wrigley. He also flagged red-hot rookie Pete Crow-Armstrong, who has belted 10 homers since April 13, as an additional run-scoring catalyst. Given both pens’ recent 4.50+ ERAs and the likelihood of another hitter-friendly afternoon at Wrigley, Bamford expects double-digit runs and will bet anything 8.5 or lower.

Eric Lindquist hammered the first-five under 4.5 runs at Wrigley, citing three converging edges. First, Marlins spot-starter Vicente Belazzo (13.2% BB% this year vs 7.1% last season) has brought his expected ERA down to 3.84 by swapping 10% of his four-seamers for cutters, turning a .505 xSLG fastball into a show-me pitch. Second, Belazzo’s 33-degree average launch angle makes him an extreme fly-ball arm, but Tuesday’s forecast calls for stiff winds blowing straight in from right field, the perfect antidote to those lofted balls and to Chicago’s left-handed pop (Pete Crow-Armstrong, et al.). Finally, Cubs starter Javier Assad profiles as a ground-ball specialist who routinely works into the fifth; Lindquist expects both hurlers to keep traffic light until the pens arrive. He is comfortable laying up to –120 juice on the 4.5 line.

Kenny G’s favorite angle in Marlins–Cubs is the over 8. Miami’s road games are an MLB-best 12-5 to the OVER and their bullpen sits 25th with a 5.05 ERA. Chicago’s relief unit is nearly as shaky (4.75 ERA), and Wrigley has been a launching pad: the Cubs are 11-5-1 to the OVER at home. Valente Bellozo (0-2, 3.50) has looked solid but has completed only 5.1 innings once; Ben Brown (3-3, 4.95) alternates gems and disasters and just surrendered three earned to San Francisco despite nine Ks. Chicago’s offense ranks 2nd in runs and 3rd in slugging, while Miami’s bats have cratered to two or fewer in four of five but still generate traffic against weak bullpens. With both teams’ totals history, volatile starters, and fatigued pens, Kenny expects a 5-4 or 6-3 type shootout and called the over ‘way more the direction you want to go’ versus any side.

Lonte Smith doubled down on the offense in that same Marlins-Cubs matchup, singling out Chicago’s team-total over 4.5 as his favorite angle. Smith actually likes Ben Brown more than the market but believes the Cubs lineup is in a smash spot against rookie right-hander Valente Bellozo, who is coming off his worst start (six earned vs Seattle) and walks 4.4 per nine. Smith noted that Chicago has faced a gauntlet of elite pitching yet remains 18-12 to the over versus righties; dropping down in class should unlock the bats, especially with Pete Crow-Armstrong’s power surge (10 HR since 4/13) thickening the order. He expects the North Siders to touch up Bellozo early and force Miami’s 4.91-ERA bullpen in by the fifth, a recipe for five-plus runs at Wrigley.

For totals bettors the tout likes the OVER at Wrigley. Overs have cashed in five of the last ten Cubs-Marlins clashes, and both inexperienced starters carry limited MLB track records. Miami has surrendered four-plus runs in eight of its last ten, while Chicago has plated five or more in four of its last five home dates. With Valent unlikely to see the sixth and Brown still a command-work-in-progress, Cash Out Sports Picks predicts early offense and a vulnerable bullpen parade that pushes the combined tally past the posted number.

Cash Out Sports Picks took the Cubs money-line against Miami, highlighting stark night-game splits. Chicago is 15-6 after dark while the Marlins are 7-14. Miami is also 5-12 away from home and turns to starter Valent, who averages fewer than five innings per outing. That dumps the game onto a bullpen with a 5.05 ERA (fifth worst). Cubs rookie Ben Brown brings 41 strikeouts in 36.1 innings and should limit damage long enough for Chicago’s patient lineup to grind at-bats and exploit the shaky Miami relief corps. With the NL Central leaders desperate to halt a mini-slump, the tout sees reliable value on the Cubs at Wrigley.

Guy Boston circled multiple ways to back Chicago’s offense, with his favorite being the Cubs team total over 4.5 runs. He cited a meaty 80-PA sample in which the club owns a .406 average, .432 wOBA and only a 16.3 % strikeout rate off Cal Quantrill, who also carries a 9 % walk rate in those meetings. Wind at Wrigley is expected to blow out again—conditions that have keyed previous team-total hits for Boston this season. He also noted Quantrill’s hittable profile (19th-percentile whiff rate, 4.79 xERA) and a depleted Miami bullpen that ranks 27th in FIP and was pushed hard over the weekend. If books post Quantrill at 5.5 hits allowed (+120) Boston would sprinkle that over as well, and the Cubs –0.5 F5 run line (–140) is in play, but he views the team-total over as the cleanest path.

Razzle likes Colin Rea as a cheaper SP2. The Cubs are massive –258 favorites over a weak Miami lineup, giving Rea +125 win odds (third best on slate). Wind is blowing in at Wrigley, further suppressing run scoring. While Rea’s strikeout ceiling is limited (4.5 K-prop), the park factors and matchup provide a solid path to 15–20 DK points at moderate ownership. Razzle will roster Rea in builds that pay up for expensive bats.

Alongside his Cubs moneyline pick, Kenny G flagged Over 8.5 as nearly automatic given the statistical profiles. The Marlins are 12-5 to the Over on the road—best mark in MLB—thanks to their leaky bullpen and Quantrill’s implosions (seven-run disaster vs Philadelphia, back-to-back four-run outings vs LAD). Chicago’s offense, highest in runs and third in slugging, gets the platoon advantage versus the right-hander and should rebound at hitter-friendly Wrigley after a brief slump. Even if Colin Rea deals, Kenny sees Miami’s pen giving up insurance runs, while the Cubs’ own 4.75 relief ERA keeps the backdoor open. He projected double-digit scoring and would play the Over down to 9.0.

Cash Out Sports Picks doubled down on offense by playing the Over in Marlins-Cubs. Chicago leads MLB at 5.8 runs per game (6.3 in night contests) and has a history of success against Cal Quantrill. Miami’s staff owns a brutal 6.98 road ERA, and its bullpen is 27th with a 5.05 ERA, 1.55 WHIP, and 21 homers allowed. Chicago’s relievers are only a shade better (4.57 ERA, 1.40 WHIP), creating blow-up potential on both sides. Supporting trends: the Over is 5-3 in the last eight head-to-heads, 8-5-1 when Chicago is a home favorite, 19-10-2 for the Cubs with no rest, 11-3 when Miami is a road dog, and 19-11 for the Marlins on zero rest. With both clubs ranking top-10 in OPS with runners in scoring position (.851 Cubs, .749 Marlins) and Wrigley playing hitter-friendly after dark, the tout projects a combined total well above the posted number.

Calling it his “lock of the day,” Kenny G endorsed laying the –250 with Chicago because the matchup is lopsided everywhere except the bullpen. Colin Rea (2-0, 2.43 ERA) had strung together four straight quality outings before a hiccup in San Francisco and now gets a bottom-five Marlins offense that sits 20th in slugging and has produced 2.2 runs per game over its last five. Meanwhile Cal Quantrill’s 7.11 ERA is no fluke—he’s been rocked for 15 earned in the three starts prior to his Dodgers surprise—and will turn things over to a Miami pen sporting a 5.05 ERA (25th). Even with Chicago’s own relief issues, Kenny trusts the league’s highest-scoring lineup (top-10 AVG, 3rd SLG) led by Kyle Tucker and Nico Hoerner to give Rea plenty of cushion. He said the Cubs could cover the entire 8.5-run total themselves and views the hefty juice as justified given the talent gap.

Lonte Smith made Pete Crow-Armstrong his favorite long-ball ticket for Monday, citing both form and matchup. The rookie outfielder has homered in back-to-back games, owns a four-game hit streak, and has registered knocks in eight of his last nine. Smith loves the draw against Cal Quantrill, whose 7.64 road ERA, 14% K-rate and .382 wOBA allowed to left-handed bats have led to five-plus earned runs in three of his last five starts. With afternoon conditions at Wrigley and Quantrill’s sinker staying up, Smith expects elevated hard contact and at least four plate appearances for Crow-Armstrong at or near the top of the order. He paired the HR prop with alternate-total-bases ladders and advised shopping for +475 or better on the dinger price.

Lonte Smith doubled down on Chicago, playing both Cubs −1.5 and their team total over 4.5 runs. He pointed to Quantrill’s ghastly splits—5+ earned in three of his last five overall and a .382 wOBA allowed to left-handed bats, an issue against a Cubs lineup that can stack five productive lefties. Lonte noted Chicago’s mini-slump (1-4 last five) but expects immediate correction, given their .350 OBP at home and Miami’s bullpen ranking 29th in strand rate. Rya has limited hard contact in six of seven starts, so Lonte sees a path to a 6-2 or 7-3 type final where both bets cash.

Scott Reichel recommended Cubs −1.5 (−110) against Miami, arguing that fading Cal Quantrill’s 7.64 road ERA is a must. Although Quantrill just stifled the Dodgers for five innings, Scott called it a clear outlier—on the road he is allowing a .308 opponents’ average and has produced only a 14% K-rate. The Cubs lineup still owns a top-10 wRC+ versus right-handed pitching and should benefit from Wrigley’s mild May winds. Scott conceded starter Rya—who sports a 3.15 ERA and 1.08 WHIP—had his worst outing last week but trusts him to rebound against a Marlins offense ranking 28th in OPS. With Miami bullpens ranked 29th in FIP, he expects Chicago to break it open late and cover the runline.

Cash Out Sports Picks recommended backing the Cubs to win and cover against Miami, citing big advantages in power and recent pitching form. Chicago ranks third in MLB with 59 home runs and owns an .851 OPS with runners in scoring position, second best in baseball. The Marlins, tied for 23rd in homers (34) and allowing steals at a league-worst 90.5% rate, bring a shaky starter in Cal Quantrill, who has surrendered four-plus earned runs in three of his last four outings. Chicago counters with Ria, who has given up two earned runs or fewer in four of his last five starts. Miami’s bullpen (5.05 ERA) and 5–12 road record further tilt the matchup toward the Cubs, who average 5.8 runs per game overall and 5.8 at home. The tout expects Wrigley’s resident mashers to win by multiple runs.

Eric Pathi advised taking the Miami Marlins at +200 on the moneyline against the Chicago Cubs for the 5/12/25 matchup. His entire rationale hinged on the Cubs' dramatic home/road split from a betting perspective. While Chicago is 23-17 overall and up $398 for $100-unit bettors, they are actually minus $144 at Wrigley Field but plus $542 on the road. Pathi called it “fiscal insanity” to lay more than -200 with a team that has been a net loser for backers at home. He explicitly dismissed starting-pitcher or ERA considerations, saying his approach focuses purely on the moneyline profitability numbers. Because the Marlins come in as a sizable underdog and the Cubs have been hemorrhaging bankroll in their own park, he labeled Miami a live dog and his complimentary selection.