Drew Martin grabbed the Miami Marlins at +125 in Cincinnati, convinced Sandy Alcantara will look far more like the 2022 Cy Young winner against a slumping Reds lineup. Alcantara’s 7.00 ERA is ugly, but Martin pointed out the blow-ups came versus elite offenses (Arizona, Dodgers, Rays). Against weaker bats—Colorado, Pittsburgh, an under-performing Atlanta club—Alcantara has shoved. Cincinnati fits the weaker-bat profile: they sit bottom-five in wRC+ over the past week and bottom-10 on the season, and they have dropped three straight entering Wednesday. Martin also likes the Marlins’ current form—11-3 in their last 14 and an even .500 on the road—and highlighted a bullpen that has quietly been one of the league’s best during the hot stretch. Reds left-hander Andrew Abbott sports solid season numbers, but he is coming off his worst outing of 2025 (nine hits, three innings vs. Philadelphia), giving Miami a chance to do early damage. With an edge both on the mound and in the late innings, Martin labeled the Fish a worthy underdog play.