Kenny G grabbed the Marlins at +125 because he trusts Cal Quantrill’s recent surge far more than Miles Mikolas’ uneven season. Quantrill has logged four gems in his last five (1.80 ERA in that span) and just stifled Milwaukee, while Mikolas sits at 4.94 with a 6.23 ERA in July and was lucky to escape San Diego with only one run despite seven hits. St. Louis’ offense has cratered—0-7-2-1-3-9-0 its last seven—and now ranks 17th in slugging. Miami’s bats are middle-of-the-pack but opportunistic (eighth in batting average) and their bullpen has quietly trimmed its ERA below 4.00 since the break. Kenny conceded Busch Stadium has been kind to the Cards (32-22), yet he sees too many red flags: St. Louis has dropped three of four, Mikolas carries no strikeout punch (15.6% K-rate), and the Fish are 4-1 in Quantrill’s last five starts. He called fading Mikolas “almost automatic” and expects Miami to win this coin-flip at plus money.

Kenny G is backing Miami at +125 with Cal Quantrill on the hill. Quantrill has quietly righted the ship—four of his last five starts were gems, capped by five scoreless against Milwaukee. He now sports a 2.83 ERA in July and has shaved nearly a run off his season mark. Miles Mikolas remains fade-worthy in Kenny’s eyes; despite an ‘excellent’ line last time, he generated just one strikeout and owns a 6.31 ERA over his previous three outings. St. Louis’ offense has cratered to 13th in runs and has been held to three or fewer in five of seven. Miami’s bats are merely average but rank 8th in batting average and should scrape together enough against a starter allowing a .289 opponent clip. The Fish bullpen has improved to middle-of-the-pack, while the Cards’ 3.57 relief ERA masks shaky high-leverage outings. Kenny considered Over 8.5 but prefers the plus-money side, calling Quantrill-vs-Mikolas ‘a mismatch the market isn’t pricing in’.

Malcom Bamford jumped on Miami at +123, framing it as the clear value play against a wildly inconsistent Miles Mikolas. He highlighted Mikolas’ recent ‘volatile’ run—referencing the cryptic “0-5-0-8-6” stretch he rattled off as shorthand for five shaky outings—and said the veteran is impossible to handicap right now. Cal Quantrill, by contrast, has stacked back-to-back strong starts (Milwaukee and Kansas City) and gives Miami the steadier opening five innings. Bamford does not expect the market to correct for Mikolas’ risk, so he is happy to keep firing on the plus-money Fish in both the Tuesday opener and this Wednesday matchup, convinced that winning just one of the two produces profit.

Lonte Smith will be on Miami first five innings and a smaller sprinkle full-game with Cal Quantrill matching up against Miles Mikolas. Mikolas has been the picture of inconsistency, surrendering 8, 0, 5 and 0 earned runs in his last four outings while sporting an xERA nearly a run higher than his 4.12 ERA. Quantill, by contrast, has quietly posted a 3.18 road ERA this season and has not allowed more than three earned in any of his last six away starts. Smith added that Mikolas was extremely fortunate in his last ‘good’ outing, stranding two bases-loaded jams via double-plays. Miami’s lineup owns an .802 OPS versus right-handed pitching since the break, and St. Louis’ bullpen ranks 28th in strikeout rate. Smith is most comfortable isolating the pitching edge early, but he expects positive value on the Marlins moneyline as well and would look toward an over 8.5 if the number holds.

Brad Free Pick Dawgz grabbed Marlins first-five +0.5 runs because Miami reliably backs Cal Quantrill on the road. Even though Quantrill’s raw numbers are nothing special, Brad pointed out the club keeps cashing tickets whenever he pitches. Conversely, Miles Mikolas started the season hot but ‘doesn’t look like the same guy’ lately, giving Brad confidence the Marlins can at least be tied through five. He is even sprinkling the full-game money-line but prefers the safer plus-half-run at a modest price.

Just A Bet Outside recommended betting against Sonny Gray in Tuesday’s matchup with Miami. Gray has imploded for 14 earned runs on 22 hits across his last 8.1 innings, and opponents have barreled him up 11 times during that mini-stretch. Meanwhile, Sandy Alcantara is showing faint signs of life, blanking the Padres over six frames in his most recent start. Steven pointed out that St. Louis injuries have thinned the lineup, whereas Miami’s contact-heavy approach should keep pressure on Gray, whose four-seamer has lost nearly a full tick of velocity since June. He prefers the Marlins money-line and would sprinkle their first-five as well, expecting Gray’s current 46% hard-hit rate to remain problematic in a humid Busch Stadium environment that projects as a slight hitter’s park Tuesday night.

Guy Boston Sports wants to run back yesterday’s Cardinals–Marlins first-five UNDER, this time with Sonny Gray versus Sandy Alcantara. Yes, Gray has been ‘dinged up’ lately, but the tout likes the matchup: Miami’s lineup owns negative run values against sinkers, sliders, four-seamers and curves—the exact four-pitch mix Gray deploys. Alcantara just blanked San Diego over seven innings and his sinker/fastball combo can mute a St. Louis roster that struggles against velocity lower in the zone. Neither bullpen was taxed (Palante went seven for STL, Miami used only one reliever), so a full-game UNDER is viable, but he prefers F5 U 3 at even money or better, betting on both veterans to keep the early scoreboard quiet.

Drew Martin backed the Miami Marlins at +149 in St. Louis because he trusts Sandy Alcantara’s current form far more than Sonny Gray’s. Alcantara just spun seven shutout innings (4 H, 0 ER) against San Diego and Martin views the former Cy Young winner as a classic buy-low, especially facing the franchise that traded him away. Miami is 8-4 in its last 12 games and has swung the bats well on the road. Meanwhile Gray’s surface stats still look solid, but he has been shelled in consecutive outings, surrendering 11 hits in each start and a combined 16 runs over only eight innings. With the hotter lineup and the starting-pitcher edge, Martin felt the sizeable plus money on the Fish was too good to pass up.

Malcom Bamford took a swing at a plus-money bomb, tabbing Otto Lopez to homer off Sonny Gray. He has already faded Gray on the side—calling the Cardinals starter "rubbish"—and noted Gray’s ground-ball rate has cratered while his barrel rate has climbed above 10% over the last month. Lopez, meanwhile, owns a 44% fly-ball rate since being recalled and has quietly posted a .260 ISO against right-handers this season. With wind projected to blow out to left at 8–10 mph and St. Louis relievers ranking bottom-five in HR/9 the past week, Bamford thinks Lopez offers sneaky value to leave the park.

Malcom Bamford doubled down on the Marlins moneyline, calling +138 "one of my favourite prices on the whole card." He will fade both Sonny Gray, whose once-reliable home splits have evaporated, and a Cardinals team he said he'd bet against "whatever the opposition." Bamford is banking on Sandy Alcantara to back up last week’s seven-scoreless outing versus San Diego and trusts Miami’s recent surge—multiple Monday wins in a row have made the Fish a staple of his card. With Gray’s early-season ground-ball success gone and St. Louis bats in a funk, he projects a 5-3 Miami victory.

Lonte Smith made Miami his favourite plus-money play of the slate at +138. He’ll fade Sonny Gray’s recent collapse—8.34 ERA over his last five, including 14 earned on 22 hits in just his past two starts—and ride a Marlins club that is 7-3 over its last ten after an impressive road series win in Milwaukee. Sandy Alcantara is coming off seven scoreless against San Diego; while his swing-and-miss stuff has dipped (no more than four Ks in six straight), Smith thinks a scuffling Cardinals lineup (3-7 last ten) will be the perfect tonic. He also sprinkled the over 8.5, citing trade-rumor distractions for both pitchers and two bullpens ranked bottom-third in ERA the past week. Final projection: Miami 6, St. Louis 4.

It’s The Final Round recommended backing Nick Kurtz in all manner of offensive props—hits, total bases, runs, RBIs or a combo—when the A’s face Seattle right-hander Logan Evans. Evans has been vulnerable to left handed bats, surrendering a .286 average to them on the year, a .323 mark on the road and a .273 clip over his last four starts. Kurtz, a lefty, is blistering righties to the tune of a .348 average in 2024 and .304 at home. His recent form is ridiculous: a four-homer, eight-RBI explosion a few days ago and a .600 average over the past week (15 hits), giving him 5 HR, 11 RBIs and 9 runs in that span. The show’s AI model pegs him at an 85 % chance for at least one hit, 45 % for an extra-base hit (over 1.5 total bases), 55 % to score and 50 % to drive in a run, with 11–14 projected fantasy points. Jordan framed Kurtz as essentially matchup-proof right now and liked the idea of building two-man or larger hit parlays around him depending on payout structure at books like PrizePicks, Underdog or Sleeper.

Dylan Rockford echoed the play, saying his projection priced Miami –110. Rockford highlighted Cabrera’s post-May turnaround—roughly a 2.00 ERA and sub-.250 wOBA against—while Pallante’s ERA has ballooned to 7.71 during the same span. The Cardinals offense owns just a .688 OPS in July, so Rockford does not expect them to punish Cabrera’s occasional walks. With St. Louis lineup ice-cold and Pallante failing to work past the fifth inning in four straight appearances, Rockford sees clear value taking the Fish at any plus number.

Scott Reichel grabbed Miami around +100 because he trusts Edward Cabrera’s raw stuff far more than Andre Pallante’s. Reichel pointed out that Pallante has been a disaster lately, coughing up 17 earned runs (18 total) over his last three outings while St. Louis has dropped five straight games he has started. Cabrera’s season has been uneven, but Reichel noted his strike-out upside and that, on his good days, the right-hander sits upper-90s with a wipe-out change. Against a Cardinals lineup he called ‘flat,’ Reichel wants the better arm plus a coin-flip price, saying he would play Miami down to –105.

MadnessDFS labeled Edward Cabrera OVER 4.5 strikeouts his favorite board play. The premium Top Props model shows a 53.8% hit rate, and Cabrera has cleared this number in 11 consecutive outings and in 80% of his past 15. Despite St. Louis ranking just 26th in K-rate (20.2%), Cabrera’s own 24.9% strikeout clip supplies plenty of upside. Books agree—DraftKings has the over juiced to –135, but PrizePicks users don’t pay that vig. With the trade deadline looming and potential lineup shifts for the Cardinals, MadnessDFS sees little downside in riding Cabrera’s hot strikeout form one more time.

Kenny G backed Miami at +100, laying out a clear edge on the mound. Edward Cabrera is 4-4 with a 3.48 ERA and has delivered four quality efforts in his last five turns, including 5.2 IP of one-run ball in a 4-3 win over San Diego. St. Louis counters with Andre Pallante, whose season has cratered to 5-7, 4.91 and three straight blow-up losses (6-0 to COL, 7-3 to ARI, 8-2 to WSH). The Cardinals offense has cooled to 2-1-3 runs the past three, while Miami’s bullpen—once a liability—has inched under a 4.00 ERA. Kenny noted the Marlins are a game over .500 on the road and that both clubs trend to the over at their respective splits, but he prefers the even-money moneyline, trusting Cabrera’s recent form and fading Pallante’s skid.

Jovan Burts advised taking the Miami Marlins -0.5 run line for the first five innings at +120 in their July 28, 2025 matchup with St. Louis. Burts expects a quality start from Edward Cabrera, citing Cabrera’s recent form and the Marlins’ 7-3 record over their last 10 games. On the other side, Cards starter Andre Palante has surrendered 17 runs across his previous three outings (5, 5, and 7 earned runs), prompting Burts to label him a fade candidate. With the Marlins’ offense drawing a soft matchup and Cabrera offering a clear pitching edge, Burts sees plus-money value in backing Miami to lead after five frames.

Eric Lindquist said he will immediately hammer Edward Cabrera strike-out overs the moment Brendan Donovan is shipped out of St. Louis. Donovan’s 13 % K-rate is the lowest on the Cardinals, and Lindquist expects Garrett Hampson (30 % K-rate) or another whiff-happy replacement to slide in at second base if a deadline deal goes through. He noted that books tend to lag on roster news, so bettors who ‘sniper’ Cabrera’s prop before lines refresh should wind up with positive-EV numbers and can even buy back later to middle once the market adjusts.