Peterson snagged Brewers +125 (made it +114) citing Tampa’s over-valued starter Drew Rasmussen, who carries a 3.09 ERA but a higher 3.71 FIP and has been tagged for 3+ runs in three straight outings. Chad Patrick quietly mirrors Rasmussen with a 3.08 ERA/3.82 FIP combo, and Milwaukee’s lineup travels—ranking 7th on the road at 5.2 runs per game. With even pitching and the better bats getting dog money, Peterson sees value on the Brew Crew.

The tout also took the under, highlighting that Milwaukee games have cashed five of the last six unders while their offense has produced just 2.67 runs per game in that span. Tampa Bay averages 3.82 runs on the season and faces a pitcher who has yielded only five runs in his last three road starts. Although Rasmussen has scuffled, the Brewers have totaled six runs in this series and Rays bats remain cold. With both offenses middling and Patrick steady, Cash Out Sports Picks expects another low-scoring afternoon.

Cash Out Sports Picks grabbed the Brewers money line, pointing to Drew Rasmussen’s tailspin—10 earned runs in his last three starts and seven at home—plus cracks in Tampa’s bullpen. Milwaukee hits .245 versus right-handers and faces a Rays club just 11-16 at Tropicana. Brewers starter Patrick (nine earned in last three; five in last three road outings) has been steadier than Rasmussen and should stifle a Rays lineup averaging only 3.33 runs over its past three contests. In a battle of struggling offenses, the Brewers’ edge versus righties and pitching form warranted the play.

Brad Francis played the Rays team total under 4.5 at Milwaukee. The wager has cashed in six of the last seven Rays-Brewers clashes, and spot starter Chad Patrick has been surprisingly steady for Milwaukee. Francis doesn’t trust Tampa Bay’s streaky offense—especially away from the Trop—and expects another muted scoring output on the road.

Guy Boston said the best angle in Rays-Brewers is to ride Taj Bradley at home. Bradley’s four-seam/cutter/splitter combo lines up perfectly against a Milwaukee lineup that sits bottom-10 in run value versus each of those pitches. Boston trusts Bradley’s known Tropicana splits (career 3.07 ERA at home vs 4.62 on the road) and noted that Tobias Myers’ reverse platoon issues ( .371 wOBA allowed to LHB) are a problem against a Rays order that can run six left-handed bats. Rather than lay heavy juice on the full game moneyline, Boston likes two correlated bets: Rays ML at –130 or better and Brewers team total under 4.5 at –115. He is willing to live with the slight wind out because a 50% rain forecast should mute carry, and Milwaukee would still have to get to five runs—something they’ve managed in just six of their last 19 games away from American Family Field.

For Brewers–Rays, Garofolo recommended the Under 9.5 at ‑112. Dimers’ simulations project a 57.7% probability of nine runs or fewer, producing a 4.9% expected-value cushion against the listed odds. The pick, scheduled for a 4:10 PM ET first pitch, rounds out Saturday’s trio of totals that cleared the model’s +EV filter after thousands of run-throughs of its proprietary MLB game script algorithm.

Kenny G recommended betting under 9.5 in Brewers-Rays. He pointed out both lineups are sputtering: Milwaukee is down to 22nd in batting average and 27th in slugging while Tampa Bay sits 22nd in runs and OBP. Tobias Myers allowed only one earned over 5⅓ vs Houston and faces a Rays attack that rarely punishes mistakes. On the other side, Taj Bradley has righted the ship with quality outings against Arizona, Kansas City, and the Yankees, and will be backed by a bullpen with a 3.33 ERA (top-10). Kenny conceded Milwaukee’s pen is ugly (4.88 ERA) but trusts Tampa’s weak bats to limit the damage. Unders are 9-8-2 in Brewers road games and 12-10-2 in Rays home games, reinforcing the angle.

Beyond the total, Kenny G likes Tampa Bay at -135. The Brewers have dropped four of five and are 7-12 on the road; their bullpen’s 4.88 ERA and an offense that has scored 3,1,4,5,4 runs in their last five make them unreliable. Taj Bradley’s swing-and-miss stuff (28% strikeout rate) paired with Tampa’s bullpen advantage is enough to offset the Rays’ own batting woes, and Kenny noted the club is 9-15 at home but trending upward after a needed 4-3 win in the series opener. He sees Myers’ 3.65 ERA as shaky beneath the hood—six hits allowed in just 5⅓ last time out—and expects regression against a Rays lineup that fares better versus right-handed pitching.

Scott Reichel called the Rays –135 moneyline "kind of insane" and grabbed Milwaukee at +115. Tampa owns a 9-16 home record, scores only 3.7 runs per game at The Trop, and trots out an inconsistent Taj Bradley (4.43 ERA, hard-hit rate over 40%). Opposing him is Bryse Myers, whose season ERA is inflated by one blow-up; he just tossed 5.1 innings of one-run ball in Houston. Reichel noted both clubs mirror each other offensively—Milwaukee is mediocre on the road (7-12 record), while Tampa can’t hit anywhere—and expects a 3-2 type contest. Given the coin-flip nature, he believes the proper price is closer to Rays –115, making anything north of +110 on the Brewers a bet. He also leaned Under 9.5 because neither lineup is trustworthy and both pens sit top-10 in xFIP over the past two weeks.

Even though the Brewers have hit 21 unders already, the tout likes the OVER here. Milwaukee averages 5.26 runs on the road and its games away from home combine for 10.42 runs. Tampa’s offense is modest (3.81 rpg) but its contests at home still average 8.2 runs and the Rays’ bullpen continues to leak. With Milwaukee’s road bats and a vulnerable Tampa relief unit, Cash Out Sports Picks projects a total that clears the number.

Cash Out Sports Picks took Milwaukee on the money line. Tampa is skidding, just blew a late lead Thursday, and plays its home games in a makeshift spring-training park that offers little edge. The Brewers lineup is producing more than Tampa’s, and Myers is expected to keep them in control while the Rays’ shaky bullpen (prone to late collapses) likely unravels again.

Peterson took Milwaukee +119 (projection ‑109) largely due to Taj Bradley’s collapse. After double-digit K/9 marks his first two seasons, Bradley has fallen to 6.6 K/9 with 4.0 BB/9, a 4.43 ERA and 4.63 FIP. Brewers rookie Tobias Myers owns a 3.65 ERA and has surrendered only one homer in 12.1 IP; walks (5.1 BB/9) are a concern, but he’s backed by a Brewers lineup scoring 5.3 runs per road game, fifth-best in MLB. With a live dog against a deteriorating ace, Peterson backed Milwaukee.

Kenny G’s favorite angle in Brewers–Rays is the Under 9. He expects Jose Quintana (4-1, 2.83 ERA) to bounce back after a six-run clunker and trusts Zach Lattel, who just fired seven innings of two-run ball at Yankee Stadium, to keep Milwaukee’s 26th-ranked slugging lineup in check. Both clubs trend under: the Brewers are 9-8-2 to the under on the road; the Rays are 12-10-2 to the under at the Trop. Tampa’s bullpen is elite (3.16 ERA, 7th best), while Milwaukee’s 4.91 mark is worrisome but mitigated by the Rays’ offense ranking 22nd in runs and showing scores of 6-0-4 in a sweep loss to Philadelphia. With offense "at a premium," Kenny endorsed the full-game under and suggested a NRFI for those wanting an extra sprinkle.

Lonte Smith doubled down on the full-game Under 9, noting that Zack Littell has cashed four straight unders and has not surrendered more than three earned in that span. While the righty’s lone blemish is the long ball (4 HR in his last three starts), Lonte is unfazed because Tampa’s lineup is hitting just .209 and averaging 2.5 runs per nine over its last ten. On the other side, Jose Quintana is coming off a blow-up versus Chicago but had allowed only three total earned across his previous four outings. Lonte called both offenses "weird" but ultimately trusts neither, especially inside a dome that kills carry. He still prefers Milwaukee’s more complete lineup and did sprinkle their moneyline, yet his primary ticket is Under 9 at the current −110.

Scott Reichel played a same-game angle of Milwaukee moneyline paired with Under 9. He trusts Jose Quintana more than Zack Littell and pointed to a hidden scheduling edge: the Brewers were off Thursday while the Rays had to play the Phillies, giving Milwaukee extra rest and a chance to arrive early. Reichel hammered Tampa’s bottom-10 rank in runs per game and sub-.210 team batting average over its last ten contests. He added that Tropicana’s homer-suppressing backdrop magnifies Tampa’s limp power profile. With Littell carrying a 4.61 ERA and the Brewers’ own sticks slumping to .204 the past ten games, he expects both lineups to grind but not explode, forecasting something like 4-2 Brewers.

Rob Donaldson said the Brewers were a two-unit play on the full-game moneyline because the matchup tilts their way on both the mound and at the plate. He noted Jose Quintana has benefitted from Milwaukee’s knack for turning unheralded arms into serviceable starters, while Zach Lattel is getting hammered for hard contact in a Rays rotation that is scuffling. Friday’s weather in St. Petersburg projects as prime hitting conditions, and Donaldson pointed out several Milwaukee bats have top-end exit-velocity numbers over the past week. With the Brewers’ offense humming and Tampa’s starter vulnerable, Donaldson expects Milwaukee to be live for all nine innings rather than limiting the wager to the first five.

Lindquist flagged Bryce Turang’s total-bases prop as one of the two wagers he is most likely to place. Turang’s owns a 47.6 % hard-hit rate and 92.4 mph average exit velocity against righties, and he will bat second versus Rays right-hander Zack Littell, a pitcher Lindquist has ‘targeted ad nauseam’ this season. With the roof expected open in Tampa and warm hitting weather, he prefers the over 1.5 total bases at plus money rather than chasing a long-shot home-run number that has been drifting in the +1,200 to +1,400 range. The improved conditions, Turang’s batted-ball profile, and Littell’s 4.60 expected ERA combine for a strong value spot.

Erik Halterman advised scooping up Junior Caminero while the surface numbers look mediocre. Caminero is batting .242/.272 with a .702 OPS, but Statcast thinks he should be at .269 and projects a much healthier slugging profile. His 21 % strikeout rate sits exactly at league average, and the 51 % hard-hit rate is well above it. Halterman also pointed out Caminero’s 88 % in-zone contact rate (league average ~85 %), evidence that the 21-year-old already owns big-league contact skills. The only blemish is a ground-ball heavy batted-ball mix, something young hitters often correct. Because many managers overdrafted him, Halterman recommended offering a player taken two or three rounds later to pry Caminero away before the stat line catches up.

Chris Vasile laid out why he is backing the Brewers at -110 on the moneyline. He is actively fading Tampa Bay’s sputtering offense, noting that one isolated 5-run outburst is not enough to convince him the Rays have fixed a unit that ranks near the bottom of the league in wRC+ versus left-handed pitching. Vasile highlighted Jose Quintana’s "solid" start to 2025: a 2.91 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, and five straight quality starts while averaging 6.2 innings per outing. Because Milwaukee’s bullpen has been spared heavy usage thanks to Quintana’s length, Vasile expects the lefty to attack a Rays lineup striking out 24.7% of the time against southpaws. In his view, Tampa’s lack of thump plus Quintana’s form makes the Brewers a value play in a coin-flip price range.

He endorsed the OVER because Littell has already surrendered 10 bombs, including two in his last start, and Quintana coughed up three homers to the Cubs in his previous outing. The Rays have plated 20 runs in their last three games, and Milwaukee has scored 30 across Quintana’s four victories. With both pitchers susceptible to the long ball and offenses capable of crooked numbers, a high total feels attainable.

He took Milwaukee on the money line, citing Tampa Bay’s 2-7 skid, Zack Littell’s 10 homers allowed in 41 innings, and the Rays’ struggle to score. Brewers starter Jose Quintana owns a 1.00 ERA on the road with hitters at .234 in 18 away innings. Milwaukee’s bats are clicking, while Tampa’s lineup remains quiet, making the even-money pricing look mis-set in the Brewers’ favor.

For Brewers–Rays, Bevilacqua relayed that the Dimers model prefers Under 9 at +100. Simulations generate a 53.8% likelihood the game stays below nine runs, translating to fair odds of roughly -117 and producing a 3.8% positive expected value. The Under becomes attractive at even money, with the projection accounting for park factors, each club’s recent run-production distribution, and starting-pitcher baselines baked into the algorithm.

Just A Bet Outside backed Jose Quintana to clear 15.5 outs (record at least 16) against Tampa Bay. The host noted the Rays have been a disaster versus left-handers: third-lowest OBP and an impossibly bad .158 batting average over the last 30 days. Nine of 12 southpaw starters have beaten this line, with six of the last eight going a full six innings. Tampa’s sixth-highest first-pitch swing rate should give Quintana plenty of pitch-efficient outs. Quintana himself has logged at least five innings in every 2025 start, throwing 94, 98 and 91 pitches his last three. Outside of one blow-up at Wrigley he has not surrendered more than one earned run, and he averages a 2.83 ERA with a 4.9 % walk rate. The host expects the veteran lefty to reach the sixth on a 100-pitch leash and recommends betting the OVER at –125 before it moves to 18.5 outs.

B Wade took Danny Jansen under 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs because the catcher has cleared that number only 4 times in 26 games and never in back-to-back outings. Jansen is an abysmal 2-for-25 (.080) versus left-handed pitching this season and now faces southpaw Jose Quintana, who sports a 2.80 ERA, 1.20 WHIP and a 4-1 record. The tiny head-to-head sample (0-for-1) at least is not a negative. With Jansen hitting .141 overall and ice-cold against lefties, Wade believes the fade is justified, especially at plus money on Chalkboard where the full five-pick card returns 5x.

Soni spotlighted Diaz at +475 to leave the yard against Jose Quintana, pointing out that, despite a strong 2.83 ERA, Quintana just gave up three home runs in his last start versus the Cubs. Diaz is surging—.259 average, three homers, and a .926 OPS over his past seven games, with two long balls in his last three contests. The analyst framed the wager as a sharp value on a hitter finding his power stroke while facing a pitcher showing fresh cracks in his home-run suppression.

Shubham Soni recommended betting Hoskins +390 to go deep against Zack Littell, noting the Rays’ right-hander has already allowed 10 home runs in just seven starts. Hoskins enters with a .266 average, four homers, and a .799 OPS, while his underlying metrics—39.8% hard-hit rate, 7.7% barrel rate per plate appearance, and .441 expected slugging—hint at even more power upside. Soni argued the combination of Littell’s gopher-ball problem and Hoskins’ solid batted-ball profile makes this a high-value prop play.