Kenny G is going right back to New York at –125 because he cannot stomach Yu Darvish’s current form: 0-3 with a 9.18 ERA, including eight earned in 3.1 innings versus St. Louis last week, and only one Padres win in his five starts. Clay Holmes hasn’t been dominant (3.40 ERA, no truly sharp outings in five starts), but Kenny trusts the Mets’ respectable 3.72 bullpen ERA and their ability to scratch out a few against Darvish before San Diego’s elite pen can take over. Both clubs lean under on their respective home/road splits, so Kenny expects a tight, low-scoring affair that tilts New York’s way simply because Darvish can’t keep the ball in the yard right now.

Eric Lindquist said he is attacking Yu Darvish’s earned-runs prop, recommending OVER 2.5 runs allowed. Lindquist called the veteran 'broken' after watching his fastball sit well below earlier-season readings and noting that St. Louis just tagged him in his last start. Wednesday’s 1:10 p.m. local first pitch at Petco brings warmer on-shore winds that Lindquist believes will aid carry, turning the normally forgiving park into a sneaky hitters’ environment. With Darvish now in his 40s, strikeout rate sliding and command spotty, Lindquist expects the opposition to cash in early and push at least three runs across before the Padres can get him out of the game.

Kenny G is going back to the Mets at –125, primarily because he cannot stomach backing Yu Darvish in his current form. Darvish is 0-3 with a ghastly 9.18 ERA and was torched for eight earned over 3.1 innings by St. Louis in his last outing; San Diego has won just one of his five starts. The Padres’ bullpen is elite, but Kenny doubts they will inherit anything but trouble. New York counters with Clay Holmes (3.40 ERA), whose recent five-start run has been more steady than spectacular but far better than Darvish’s blow-ups. Both teams skew heavily to the under on their respective home/road splits (Mets 29-23-2 under on the road; Padres 29-20-1 under at home), yet Kenny passed on the 8.5 total because Darvish could implode again. Instead, he prefers laying the small road price with a steadier arm and a Mets bullpen that owns a serviceable 3.72 ERA.

Malcom Bamford laid the short –125 with New York, continuing his stance that You Darvish is unbettable until he proves the second-half resurgence people keep predicting. Darvish’s strike-out rate has fallen to 20.7% and he owns a 1.45 WHIP over his last five turns. The Mets carry a 121 wRC+ versus right-handed pitching in July and have won seven of their last nine despite Tuesday’s slip-up. Clay Holmes has been volatile in July (4.38 ERA) but still sports a 2.98 road ERA and a 55% ground-ball rate overall. Bamford expects New York’s bats to pressure Darvish early, forcing Bob Melvin to the now-taxed Padres bullpen by the fifth. With San Diego just 4-8 in Darvish’s starts this season, he feels the Mets remain undervalued.

Brad Free Pick Dawgz made the Mets his favorite play, simply fading Yu Darvish. Since returning from the IL, Darvish owns a gruesome 9+ ERA and was tagged for eight earned runs in his most recent start. San Diego already claimed the first two games of the set, and Brad doesn’t believe New York will get swept. With Darvish in meltdown mode, Brad expects the Mets’ lineup to break through early and never look back.

Just A Bet Outside warned listeners not to pay premium salaries or take total-bases overs on Fernando Tatis Jr. on Tuesday. Tatis is only 2-for-14 with six strikeouts in his career versus Sean Manaea, and Steven noted Manaea leans on a change-up/slider combo that has held right-handed sluggers to a sub-.300 slugging percentage this month. With Machado and Bogaerts profiling far better against Manaea and San Diego unlikely to be forced into high-leverage running situations, Steven suggested pivoting away from Tatis in DFS and fading his hitting props.

Just A Bet Outside said Manny Machado should be front-and-center in stacks and prop cards tonight because of his long-running success against Sean Manaea. Machado owns a 7-for-19 (.368) lifetime line against the left-hander, while teammate Xander Bogaerts is 7-for-15 (.467). Steven emphasized that Manaea’s road ERA sits near 5.00 and that San Diego’s lineup strikes out at the third-lowest clip in baseball, meaning plenty of balls in play against a pitcher who lives in the zone. He expects four to five plate appearances for Machado and likes him for total-bases props at plus money and as the core of Padres DFS stacks.

Guy Boston Sports leaned Mets moneyline at any pick-em price and paired it with the full-game OVER. His case: Ryan Berger relies on a fastball/slider combo, and New York ranks ninth against heaters over the last 30 days while scoring 3-7-3-6-8-2-5 runs in its past seven. Manaea has looked sharp in limited action, but San Diego grades as one of MLB’s best lineups versus lefties, so he doubts a clean shutdown. The Mets average 4.4 runs on the road compared with San Diego’s 4.18 at Petco, giving New York the consistency edge against the Padres’ wildly volatile outputs (nine runs one night, zero the next). He projects a 4-4 type game that New York wins late, recommending Mets ML and an OVER 8 if it appears.

Just A Bet Outside suggested taking the Mets behind Sean Manaea if Yu Darvish indeed gets the ball for San Diego. Manaea has allowed exactly one earned run in all three of his 2024 starts and stretched to 82 pitches last time out, signaling he is ready for a full workload. Darvish, on the other hand, was blasted for eight hits and eight earned in just 3.1 innings at St. Louis and owns a 7.71 ERA through four appearances, giving up 2.2 HR/9. Steven thinks the Padres will be cautious with Darvish’s pitch count, opening the door to their mediocre middle relief. He likes the Mets money-line and would consider Manaea outs-recorded props, projecting 5–6 strong innings from the left-hander against a San Diego lineup striking out 26% versus southpaws this month.

Drew Martin laid the modest –115 with the Mets because their current run of form and pitching matchup both grade out as clear advantages. New York entered the series riding a seven-game winning streak (could be 8-0 depending on Monday’s late result) and hands the ball to Sean Manaea, who is stretching out after an IL stint: 3 IP, 4 IP, and 5 IP in his three starts with 18 strikeouts against just one earned run in 12 total innings. The Met lineup mashes right-handed pitching and now faces 25-year-old rookie Brandon Berger, whose Triple-A line is shaky (0-2, 4+ ERA, 49 H in 44 IP). Martin argued that the line should be steeper given New York is nearly 20 games above .500 while San Diego turns to an unproven arm, making the Mets the betting side.

Lonte Smith echoed Bamford’s Mets moneyline pick—he even has a Mets World Series futures ticket—and added a preference for the over 7.5. The Amazins have won seven straight while slugging, and he expects them to handle a diminished Darvish whose swing-and-miss stuff is down. Manaea has limited opponents to one run in all three rehab starts but may be capped at five innings, bringing New York’s still-shaky middle relief into play. If San Diego can scratch three or four off the pen, Smith sees the total sailing north of eight with the Mets doing most of the damage.

Malcolm Bamford grabbed the Mets at –125 because every current form angle points their way. New York brings a seven-game winning streak and a rejuvenated rotation: Sean Manaea has allowed exactly one earned run in each of three starts since returning from the IL and increased his workload to five innings last time out. The lineup is humming—Ronny Mauricio went 4-for-4 Sunday—and the bullpen just added hard-throwing lefty Gregory Soto. On the other side, Yu Darvish is coming off his worst outing in four and has yet to show the whiff rate that normally buoys his profile. Until Darvish proves he’s right, Bamford said he’ll keep fading him and projects the Mets to win a comfortable 5-3 type game.

Kenny G laid the short price with New York at -125, labeling the matchup a dream spot to fade Yu Darvish. Since returning from injury the veteran righty is 0-3 with a 9.18 ERA and was lit up by St. Louis his last time out. Rookie Sean Manaea, meanwhile, has a sparkling 2.19 ERA across two starts, blanking both Cincinnati and the Angels while working five efficient innings each time. The Mets bullpen (3.74 ERA) is solid enough to bridge to Edwin Diaz, and their offense has quietly surged during a recent win streak despite disappointing full-season ranks (20th average, 15th runs). San Diego’s relief unit is elite but wasted behind a lineup that sits 25th in both runs and slugging, relying too heavily on Manny Machado and Fernando Tatis Jr. Kenny skipped the under 8.5 because Darvish could single-handedly blow it up, instead projecting a “comfortable” New York victory fueled by a clear starting-pitching edge and better recent form at the plate.

Eric Lindquist wants a piece of Pete Alonso’s home-run market if San Diego turns Tuesday into a Ryan Bergert bullpen game. Lindquist projects Alonso’s fair odds at +285 but expects sportsbooks to hang something closer to +300 because Bergert is still classified as a reliever with limited big-league data. Lindquist is fading that small sample, anticipating negative regression for Bergert (or any other low-leverage arm the Padres might promote) and sees line value on both an anytime-HR ticket and 2+ total bases for Alonso—provided San Diego confirms Bergert as the opener.

Scott Reichel is taking the Mets around +120 because he refuses to ‘lay it with Dylan Cease.’ Reichel argues Cease’s 4.37 ERA and 1.34 WHIP do not warrant a favorite tag, especially against a Mets club that owns a top-five OPS since the All-Star break. Frankie Montas has been inconsistent, but his 4.45 ERA is nearly identical to Cease’s and he faces a Padres lineup that just snapped a lengthy slump. Reichel added the Sunday-night-baseball fade angle—San Diego had the extra travel—and believes the game is closer to a coin flip; therefore any price north of +110 on New York is worth a stab.

Just A Bet Outside paired Luis Arraez with Kurtz for a plus-money two-leg hits parlay, trusting the contact king to stay scorching. Arraez has a 10-game hit streak and multiple knocks in five of those. He is back to vintage form after a slow April, batting .291 at Petco and .294 versus righties on the season. The individual matchup is even sweeter: Frankie Montas has surrendered a touch over a hit per inning, sports a 4.21 xFIP against left-handed bats, and has fanned few hitters. Arraez is 6-for-9 lifetime off Montas, so the tout expects the table-setter to keep the streak alive with at least one base hit.

Eric Lindquist said Dylan Cease is his favorite pitching target on Monday and urged bettors to climb the strikeout ladder. Cease has punched out 29.6% of hitters this season and pairs that whiff rate with a serviceable 10% barrel rate, giving him leash to attack aggressively in the zone. Lindquist expects books to open Cease’s line at 6.5 strikeouts and is willing to pay juice up to −125 on the alternate 8-plus K prop, mirroring the approach he used on Kenta Maeda Sunday. The matchup sweetens the deal: Frankie Montas owns a gruesome .306 ISO allowed to lefties and should create early Padres run support, letting Cease work deep. The Mets lineup features high-K bats like Juan Soto (now a Met) and carries a collective 24% strikeout rate versus right-handed four-seam/slider combinations, Cease’s exact arsenal. With limited travel and a spacious Petco backdrop, Lindquist believes Cease handles volume and efficiency, making multiple K-ladder rungs a +EV way to attack the late game.

The tout recommended fading the Mets’ seven-game winning streak as they change cities, backing San Diego on the money line. Dylan Cease comes in off a 10-strikeout outing and faces a Mets lineup that is markedly weaker on the road. San Diego ranks near the top in strikeout avoidance, giving Cease a favorable matchup while home-field advantage at Petco should tilt the opener toward the Padres.