Lonte Smith faded the freshman and backed Toronto. Berrios is coming off his best outing of 2025 and has surrendered two runs or fewer in five of his last seven, allowing only five total hits across his last two starts. Smith sees value in a Blue Jays lineup catching fire as they chase the Yankees atop the AL East, whereas Philadelphia racked up much of its gaudy record against the softer part of the schedule. He doubts Abel can replicate his Pirates shutout against a surging Toronto order and is comfortable laying the short price despite preferring plus money.

Malcolm Bamford took the slight dog price on Philadelphia, trusting top prospect Mick Abel after his sensational debut—six scoreless frames and nine punch-outs against Pittsburgh. Bamford likes striking early with unknown arms before the league gathers film and believes Abel’s fastball/slider combo can survive Toronto’s offense for a second start. Jose Berrios is workable at Rogers Centre (numbers notably worse at home), and Bamford views the Phils as the better overall club. At -105, he’s willing to roll with the rookie.

Drew Martin said to back Mick Abel and the Phillies at the pick’em price (-105 each side). The 23-year-old former first-rounder flashed his pedigree in his lone MLB start this year—6 IP, 9-0 K/BB and the win. Martin trusts the prospect’s stuff and wants to fade Jose Berrios, noting Berrios’ velocity dip, 40 % hard-hit rate, and the eight earned runs he surrendered to Philadelphia last season before exiting in the third inning. Toronto’s lineup also owns markedly worse splits versus right-handed pitching. With Philly already 18-11 on the road and Toronto scuffling against righties, Martin expects Abel to deliver another quality outing and thinks the Blue Jays’ bats will stay quiet, making the Phillies the sharp side.

Kenny G said the Phillies are an excellent wager at –105 behind rookie right-hander Mick Abel. Abel earned another start after carving up Pittsburgh (6 IP, 5 H, 0 BB, 9 K) and flashed a mid-90s heater with a wipe-out slider that Pittsburgh hitters simply could not square up. Kenny acknowledged the quality of opponent but stressed the zero walks and 36% whiff rate as indicators Abel can hold his own against Toronto. Offensively, Philadelphia ranks 7th in runs, 5th in batting average, and 4th in OBP and just erupted for eight runs in Game 1 thanks to Bryce Harper’s homer and Trea Turner’s two bombs. Jose Berrios has a tidy 3.86 ERA, but Kenny pointed out that his best work came versus Oakland—an entirely different class of lineup—and his hard-hit rate (41%) remains elevated. The Blue Jays pen (3.40 ERA) is better than Philly’s shaky 4.67 unit, yet Kenny argued that edge is fully baked into the coin-flip number. With the Phillies 17-11 on the road and their bats considerably hotter, he prefers the plus-offense/surging-rookie combo and made Philadelphia –105 his favorite side on the card.

Just A Bet Outside recommended an alternate team-total play on the Phillies Over 2.5 runs, noting that Philadelphia has cleared this number in 73% of all games and 72% of road contests. Over the last month they rank 11th in wRC+, 8th in batting average, 10th in slugging and have the 8th-lowest K-rate against right-handed pitching. They’ve scored at least three runs in seven of their last ten games versus righty starters, averaging nearly five runs with four eruptions of seven or more. Tonight they face Jose Berrios, who allowed two or more earned runs in nine of his 11 outings before shutting down the hapless A’s, and both his righty and lefty xFIPs sit north of 4.00. Toronto’s shaky bullpen provides additional paths to cash. With the full game team total posted at 4.5, the host loves grabbing 2.5 in parlays or straight bets for a safer floor at just −114 on DraftKings.

B Wade recommended Mick Abel over 4.5 strikeouts at plus money. Abel fanned nine Pirates in his MLB debut and now fills in for Zack Wheeler against a Blue Jays club that strikes out seven times per game—just 1.7 fewer than Pittsburgh’s rate. Wade argues the modest drop-off in opponent K tendencies doesn’t justify a 4.5 line for a pitcher who showcased upper-90s stuff and a wipe-out slider in start No. 1.

Sean Zerillo made Toronto his favorite plus-money play of the day, grabbing the Blue Jays at +120 or better against Philadelphia. Zerillo acknowledged Chris Sanchez owns the starting-pitching edge but thinks the market is now pricing the left-hander as an ace even though he has issued 3-plus walks in four of his last six outings. He prefers Bowden Francis’ trend line—4.17 xFIP and a 16% K-BB rate in May after eliminating the early-season homer problem by cutting his fly-ball rate. Zerillo hammered the head-to-head mismatches everywhere else: Toronto’s bullpen ranks second in xFIP and first in K-BB% while the Phillies have fallen to 16th and 19th in those metrics since Jose Alvarado hit the IL. Defensively the gap is even wider (Jays 4th in DRS, 6th in OAA; Phillies 28th and 26th). Offensively the Jays sit fifth in wRC+ versus lefties, Philadelphia just 14th versus righties. After baking those splits into his model he made the game TOR +110 and said he could have justified the Jays as slight favorites. He is betting Toronto full-game moneyline down to +120 and expects to fire on them again later in the series if similar numbers pop.

Donnie Rightside said Kyle Schwarber is a plus-money RBI prop he wants in Toronto. Rightside highlighted Bowden Francis’ glaring vulnerability to left-handed hitters— a .246 ISO and .389 wOBA over his last 64 lefties faced and season-long marks even uglier at .333 ISO and .406 wOBA. With the Rogers Centre roof likely open, 70-degree temps, and a light breeze blowing out, Donnie expects the ball to carry. The Phillies are desperate to halt a four-game skid, and Schwarber’s premium lineup spot virtually guarantees RBI chances, especially if Bryce Harper (also a lefty Donnie is sprinkling on) suits up. Rightside advised splitting a stake between Schwarber and Harper, expecting at least one of them to drive in a run and cash at plus money.

Mills Young suggested Kyle Schwarber to record a hit with a bonus sprinkle on the home-run market against Toronto. Schwarber has reached safely in 13 of his last 16 games and draws Blue Jays right-hander pitching that has surrendered 1.5 HR/9. Young calls the single-hit prop the floor play while the long-ball ticket offers ceiling at juicy odds.

Naming him the Beast of the Night, Beermakersfan spotlighted Kyle Schwarber for both DFS and betting markets. Schwarber has hits in five straight and ranks 4th in MLB with 19 homers. Against righties this season he sports a .383 wOBA, .256 ISO and staggering 70 % hard-hit rate. Opposing opener Bowden Francis has been a punching bag for left-handed bats: .406 wOBA, .333 ISO, 71 % hard contact, 12 HRs allowed, and his numbers are actually suppressed by a .256 BABIP. Beer advised stacking Schwarber in DFS lineups and specifically suggested placing a home-run prop wager on him tonight.

JD Bets grabbed Toronto at +1.5 runs (-135) instead of the straight moneyline, citing several angles that all lean in the Jays’ favor. Toronto enters on a five-game heater while Philadelphia has dropped four straight and is just 5-5 over its last 10. At the plate the gap is widening: JD’s spreadsheet shows the Blue Jays ranking first in runs, second in slugging and sporting a league-low 4.9 strikeouts per game across the past 10 contests, whereas the Phillies have slid into the “below-average” bucket offensively. On the mound it will be Spencer Sanchez for Philly against Bowden Francis for Toronto. Sanchez has flashed strikeout upside but faces the majors’ toughest lineup to punch out; Francis is averaging only 2.1 earned runs over his last five and JD noted that any deficit inside half a run is well within reach given the Jays’ superior bats. Add Rogers Centre home field and MLB’s tendency for streaks to persist because teams play every day, and JD felt the +1.5 cushion was the cleanest way to attack the game.

Despite Philadelphia’s four-game skid, Kenny G prefers the Phillies around –160 over Toronto. He trusts Christopher Sanchez (3.32 ERA) to steady the rotation after a solid five-plus-inning, two-run effort versus Atlanta, noting Sanchez has been "pretty solid" all season. Conversely, he cannot back Bowden Francis and his 5.04 ERA, arguing recent improvement came against Texas and may not hold against a Phillies lineup still ranked seventh in runs and fourth in OBP. Kenny acknowledged the Phillies’ 4.65 bullpen ERA but countered with Toronto’s own volatility and a starter he labels unreliable. Toronto’s offense exploded for 39 runs during a five-game win streak, yet remains just 16th in runs on the year—underscoring potential regression. With Philadelphia 17-11 on the road and desperate to snap the skid, Kenny believes the talent gap between Sanchez and Francis justifies the chalk.

B Wade paired Guerrero with Kyle Schwarber over 1.5 hits+runs+RBIs. Schwarber has failed to hit this line only four times in his past 20 games. Against Blue Jays right-hander Bowden Francis he owns 2 hits and a homer in just three prior at-bats. Although Schwarber’s season average drops to .248 versus righties, Wade downplayed that split because a single swing often cashes this total. He further noted Toronto’s recent double-digit scorelines, projecting another high-run environment.

Romanelli leaned toward the Phillies despite their ugly series in Milwaukee and Bryce Harper’s continued absence because Zack Wheeler is still one of the National League’s premier arms and is primed to rebound after a rough outing versus Atlanta. Bowden Francis owns an ERA over 6.00 at Rogers Centre and, although he just pitched well, Romanelli doubts he can repeat success against a motivated Philadelphia lineup. He expects Wheeler to quiet a Blue Jays squad that fattened up on Oakland pitching and likes the Phillies to use this game as a get-right spot.

Cash Out Sports Picks grabbed Philadelphia despite Toronto’s five-game winning streak. Cristopher Sanchez has allowed just 10 earned across 28.1 innings in his last four starts (0.99 WHIP) and gives the Phillies a clear mound edge over Bowden Francis, who is 0-4 with a 6.40 ERA since April 18 and owns a 6.43 ERA with a .288 average against at Rogers Centre. Toronto’s lineup feasted on Oakland pitching, but the tout argued Philly’s deeper staff and Sanchez’s all-star-level form make the visitors the sharper side at modest juice.