He paired the side with the under. Pittsburgh is 32-21-3 to the under, scoring just 2.98 runs per game overall and 2.54 on the road. Their contests average 6.66 runs away from PNC Park. Arizona leans under as well (27-23-5) and the series opener produced only five runs. Skenes’ last three starts all finished with seven or fewer total runs. With one elite arm and two sputtering offenses, the tout expects another low-scoring game.

The tout grabbed the Pirates money line because Paul Skenes owns a 2.36 ERA, 0.95 WHIP and has allowed just eight runs in his last 31 innings, yet rarely gets run support. He’ll face Zac Gallen, who leads MLB with 29 walks and has been torched for 16 runs over his last 29.1 frames (6.03 ERA at Chase Field). Given Gallen’s control woes and Skenes’ ace-level form, the Pirates offer value despite their light offense.

Drew Martin’s best bet was Pirates first-five +100 behind Paul Skenes against Zac Gallen in Arizona. Martin argues bettors still give Gallen past-season respect despite a 5-plus ERA this year and back-to-back 10-earned-runs-in-10-innings outings versus the Cardinals and Rockies, with 21 hits allowed and four walks last time out. Skenes, the former No. 1 overall pick, has rattled off three straight 6-plus-inning gems with only one earned run in each and a sparkling 70/18 K/BB. The rookie owns a 1.40 ERA on the road, showing reverse splits that travel well. Pittsburgh’s offense has also come alive, ranking top-10 in wRC+ over the past week. By locking in only the first five frames, Martin avoids the Pirates’ shaky bullpen and counts on Skenes to outperform the slumping Gallen early. Play: Pirates 1H ML +100.

Kenny G said he will "slightly fade the Pirates" and lay the –130 with Arizona despite Paul Skenes’ electric 2.36 ERA. The logic: Pittsburgh is 6-20 on the road, 1-2 in Skenes’ last three gems, owns MLB’s worst offense (30th in runs, average, and slugging), and trots out a 4.52 bullpen ERA that can blow a scoreless start in minutes. Zac Gallen has been rough (5.25 ERA, four-plus earned in three straight), but Kenny trusts Arizona’s top-five offense (5th in runs and OBP) to tag the anemic Bucs attack and eventually win the bullpen battle over the Pirates’ shaky relief crew. The underdog price on Pittsburgh only exists because of Skenes, yet Kenny argues the rest of the roster mismatch justifies backing the Snakes at home.

Dylan Rockford advised playing the Diamondbacks first-five team total under because he expects Paul Skenes to mow through Arizona’s lineup. Skenes has yet to surrender more than two runs in any road start this season, and opponents are batting below .200 away from PNC Park against him. Rockford’s model made Pittsburgh a –120 favorite despite the market opening with the Pirates as short dogs, an indication of Skenes’ dominance. He is simultaneously fading Zac Gallen, noting Gallen’s 6-plus home ERA and a 1-4 record at Chase Field, but prefers isolating Arizona’s bats rather than backing a shaky Pittsburgh offense. With Skenes carrying a 34.7% strike-out rate on the road and Arizona ranking only 19th in wRC+ versus high-velocity righties, Rockford doubts the Snakes score more than a single run through five.

Bamford grabbed the Diamondbacks at –125, continuing his auto-fade of Pittsburgh when Paul Skenes pitches. The Pirates are just 4-7 in Skenes’ starts overall and 2-3 across his last five despite the rookie often being priced as a favorite. Arizona has won four of Zac Gallen’s last five outings—including two against the Dodgers and a pair versus the Mets—while providing far superior run support. Bamford sees no reason these clubs should be near pick-em given the Diamondbacks’ stronger lineup, better bullpen, and Gallen’s 2.79 home ERA.

Lindquist bet OVER 7.5 runs in Paul Skenes vs Zac Gallen, arguing the number is simply too low. Gallen has quietly allowed an 11 % barrel rate and now faces O’Neil Cruz, Bryan Reynolds and left-handed pickup Spencer Horwitz in a park where lefty power plays up with the roof closed. On the other side, Skenes owns video-game surface stats (2.36 ERA, 2.55 xERA) but has feasted on a soft schedule outside of the Mets, Phillies and Dodgers; Lindquist thinks Arizona’s left-heavy core of Corbin Carroll, Ketel Marte, Pavin Smith, Josh Naylor and switch-hitting Geraldo Perdomo can scratch out a few. With both lineups healthier than the public realizes, plus Gallen’s recent home struggles in roof-open heat now mitigated by climate-control, Lindquist projected 4–4 as the median outcome and stamped the over his second favorite total on the card.

JDBetsHQ played Arizona –0.5 on the first-five run line at roughly –166 instead of laying the full –240 moneyline. He highlighted the wide gap between the offenses: Arizona ranks top-10 in every run-creation metric on his sheet, while Pittsburgh sits 29th in runs, 28th in RBIs, and bottom-five in hits and homers. Rookie Mike Burrows has made one MLB start for the Pirates, coughing up 4 ER on 4 hits in five innings, whereas Arizona’s starter—tagged only as "Corbin" on the stream—has gone under 1.5 earned runs in four of his last five, posting a 1.00 ERA during that stretch. Because the Diamondbacks are at home, they bat in the bottom half of each early frame, giving them a natural push edge. JDBetsHQ expects the Snakes’ bats to jump Burrows quickly and trusts their arm to keep a punch-less Pirate order quiet long enough to cash the half-run lead by the start of the sixth.

Mills Young played Corbin Burnes over 6 strikeouts. Burnes has cashed this ticket in three of his last five starts and sits at a 60% hit rate on the season. With the betting market shaded to the over, Young followed the steam and expects Burnes’ swing-and-miss repertoire to land at least seven punch-outs.

Kingpin Sports endorsed Diamondbacks ‑1.5, pointing to Corbin Burnes’ 2.73 ERA versus Mike Burrows’ 7.20. They expect Arizona to "dominate" thanks to the pronounced starting-pitching gap.

Although Dalzell is backing Arizona to win outright, his projection spits out value on Pittsburgh +1.5 runs at roughly -110. The model expects Burnes to dominate but sees limited blow-up risk because the Diamondbacks bullpen has the seventh-worst WHIP (1.42) over the past two weeks, creating a path for a 4-3 or 5-4 final. Pittsburgh’s offense has at least six hits in five straight games and could get a mid-game boost from top prospect Termarr Johnson, who was called up Tuesday. With Chase Field suppressing extra-base power and the total sitting at 9.0, Dalzell believes runs will come at a premium and grabbing the extra run and a half with the Pirates is a smart way to fade the inflated -1.5 favorite price on Arizona.

Vaughn Dalzell said his model makes the Diamondbacks clear value on Tuesday’s moneyline despite the short price sitting around -256. He pointed to the sizeable mound edge: Corbin Burnes owns a 2.73 ERA, is holding hitters to a .196 average, and is coming off a seven-inning, eight-strikeout gem, whereas rookie Mike Burrows sits at 7.20 with more walks (2) than strikeouts (3) in his lone start. Arizona has also taken four of its last five home games against sub-.500 clubs and just blanked Pittsburgh 5-0 on Monday while piling up 10 hits and two homers. Dalzell noted Pittsburgh has failed to cover the run line in four straight road contests and is 19-36 overall. All of that, combined with Chase Field’s run-suppressing roof-closed conditions tonight, led him to label the Diamondbacks moneyline as the safest play on the board.

Lonte Smith suggested turning the heavy –260 price into an even-money look by parlaying Corbin Burnes to record the win with at least five strikeouts. Burnes has fanned 27 batters over his last 26 innings and cleared 5 Ks in three of four. Pittsburgh’s projected lineup strikes out 24.1% versus right-handers and has scored just 16 total runs across its past seven games. Smith reiterated his auto-fade of the Pirates—"even when Skeens is on the mound, until further notice"—and trusts Burnes’ form plus Arizona’s rested bullpen to convert the W.

Malcolm Bamford swallowed the juice and played Arizona –1.5 behind Corbin Burnes, who sports a sparkling 1.48 ERA at Chase Field and four consecutive quality starts (1.38 ERA, 0.92 WHIP in that span). Rookie Mike Burrows allowed four earned in a five-inning debut and now faces a desert lineup far more explosive than Milwaukee. The Diamondbacks have dropped five straight but average 5.2 runs per game at home; Bamford thinks the get-right spot aligns with a pitching mismatch and called –260 on the ML appropriate, making the run line the only playable angle.

For the final parlay piece, Perrault rolled with Arizona behind Corbin Burnes’ sparkling home numbers: a 1.48 ERA, 2-0 record, and .169 opponent batting average across 24.1 innings. The Pirates limp in at 6-20 on the road and are sending Mike Burrows to the mound for just his second big-league start after allowing four runs in five innings during an 8-5 loss his first time out. With the Diamondbacks ending a five-game skid by blanking Pittsburgh 5-0 the night before, Perrault sees Burnes’ form and the Pirates’ road futility as more than enough to justify another D-backs moneyline ticket.

With Pittsburgh averaging just 3.04 runs per game (2.64 on the road) and cashing 31 Unders already, the tout expects another low total despite Arizona’s pop. Combined Pirates games average 7.32 runs (6.72 away). Arizona contests have stayed Under in 26-of-53, and Burroughs is at least capable of limiting damage for a few innings. Cash Out Sports Picks projects the Diamondbacks to carry the scoring burden but not enough for an Over, recommending the Under on the full-game number.

Kenny G said Arizona –250 is on the short-list for his ‘lock of the day’ because Corbin Burnes is shoving right now while the Pirates can’t hit water. Burnes owns a 2.77 ERA and just handled the Dodgers for seven innings of three-run ball with an 8/1 K/BB, the latest in a string of quality starts against top-tier lineups. He now faces a Pittsburgh offense that is dead last in runs, slugging and team average and was blanked 5-0 in Monday’s series opener. Kenny expects Burnes to limit the Bucs to one or two runs and notes the Pirates’ 4.52 bullpen ERA leaves them vulnerable once Mike Burrows (7.20 ERA in his lone MLB start) exits. While he admits the Diamondbacks’ bullpen is fifth-worst, he thinks the bats will cover that wart; Arizona ranks tied-for-fifth in runs and OBP and he projects them to do most of the damage against Burrows, saying they could eclipse the nine-run total by themselves. With Pittsburgh 6-20 on the road and 17-7-2 to the under away, Kenny is avoiding the total and simply swallowing the moneyline juice because the talent gap on the mound and at the plate is that large.

Cash Out Sports Picks laid the run line with Arizona, noting Pittsburgh is 6-19 away (76 % road loss rate) and has surrendered 5+ runs in four of the last five meetings with the D-backs. Arizona ranks ninth in batting average (.254) and third in slugging, while the Pirates languish near the bottom offensively. Rookie Jared Burroughs makes only his third MLB appearance for Pittsburgh, whereas Arizona’s Burns had won three straight before a quality-start loss to LAD, signaling improved form. The tout believes the matchup of surging bats versus shaky road arms produces a comfortable D-backs cover.

Jenstad pegged Ryne Nelson as a sneaky Week-ahead add because Arizona lines him up for Pittsburgh and potentially Washington. Nelson just limited the Dodgers to one run over five innings at Chavez Ravine, showing improved control (1 walk) while sitting 95 mph. The downside is an 8 % swinging-strike rate that leaves little margin for error, but Jenstad likes the floor against a Pirates team bottom-five in OPS versus righties. If Eduardo Rodriguez returns and bumps Nelson to a single start, it’s still the better half of the matchup grid; with two, Nelson jumps to must-stream territory in 12-team leagues.

Scott Jenstad pointed out that Arizona hitters have one of the sneakiest schedule edges of Week 10: six straight games at Chase Field—three against the Pirates and three versus the Nationals. Pittsburgh’s staff sports a 4.65 ERA outside PNC Park and will send rookies like Jared Jones plus only one Paul Skenes start, while Washington’s rotation enters with a collective .341 wOBA allowed to left-handed hitters. The combination of hitter-friendly weather, altitude, and shaky bullpens means everyday bats such as Christian Walker, Ketel Marte, and even deeper options like Joc Pederson (if active) or Jake McCarthy deserve lineup bumps. Jenstad suggested that shallow-league managers stream Diamondbacks corner infielders, while DFS players can capitalize on modest salaries for the bottom half of the order on the six-game Monday holiday slate.

Scott Reichel singled out Oneil Cruz as his favorite home-run prop for Monday’s Pirates-Diamondbacks game. Reichel noted that Ryne Nelson has surrendered a long ball in three of his last four starts and owns a 1.75 HR/9 on the season. Arizona’s bullpen has also been torched for 1.46 HR/9, giving Cruz multiple cracks at shaky pitching. Chase Field projects as a top-five hitting environment on Monday with the roof expected open and a light breeze out to right. Cruz just registered a 122-mph rocket in Sunday’s game, reinforcing his elite raw power, and he already homered the only other time Reichel backed him this year. With Pittsburgh’s lineup otherwise thin, Reichel expects Cruz to be aggressive in hitter’s counts and priced the homer at +390 while most books still hang +430 or longer. He advised locking it in before the market corrects.

Rockford argued Arizona should be no higher than –155, yet shops are dealing –180/–185. He prefers Pittsburgh +0.5 in the first five, highlighting Andrew Heaney’s dominant road profile (2.45 ERA, .156 BAA) against Ryne Nelson’s 4.60 ERA, poor command and lack of length. The snakes’ bullpen grades bottom-five, another reason to avoid full-game vig. Rockford’s model spits out a total of 8.9, so he also leans under 9.5 given Heaney’s swing-and-miss stuff and the Pirates offense still being middling despite a better weekend. “Price is insane—Bucs are live,” he said, expecting at worst a coin-flip through five innings.

Kenny G’s preferred angle in Pittsburgh–Arizona is the under 9.0. He highlighted Andrew Heaney’s recent surge—2.91 ERA across his last three starts against Cincinnati, Philadelphia and Atlanta—and noted that rookie Ryan Nelson allowed just one run over five innings versus the Dodgers in his first 2025 start. The Pirates’ offense is a mess (last in MLB in runs, batting average and slugging), and they are an absurd 16-7-2 to the under when traveling. Arizona’s normally potent lineup has disappeared during a five-game skid, managing 3, 5, 3, 1 and 3 runs. Chase Field has been friendly to low totals as well: the D-backs are 14-9-3 to the under at home. While both bullpens sport ugly ERAs (PIT 4.59, ARI 5.24), Kenny believes two cold lineups plus competent starting pitching will cap scoring and sees eight runs as the ceiling.

Dylan Wilkerson backed Ketel Marte to leave the yard at +270. Wilkerson pointed out that Marte has already launched 8 homers in May and sits in the 80th percentile or better in xBA, xSLG, average exit velocity, barrel rate, and hard-hit rate according to Baseball Savant. The switch-hitter also draws his preferred matchup: Andrew Heaney. In 11 career plate appearances versus the lefty, Marte owns four hits—two of them home runs—giving him a .727 SLG against Heaney. With elite underlying metrics and a pitcher he has historically punished, Wilkerson expects Marte’s power binge to continue.