Malcolm Bamford targeted the first-five innings under once books finally post a number, projecting 4.5 as playable. He expects only 3–4 innings from Eric Lauer—who has allowed two or fewer runs in every appearance—and trusts Toronto’s top-10 bullpen to bridge the gap. On the other side, Tyler Mahle has been lights out (1.80 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, Rangers 9-2 to the under in his starts), and Texas owns a bottom-five wRC+ versus left-handed pitching. The Blue Jays are 23-17 to the under against righties, so Bamford anticipates both offenses sleepwalking through the first half of the game, calling a 2-1 type score through five.

JDBetsHQ backed Nathan Eovaldi to stay under 2.5 earned runs against Toronto. The tout noted Eovaldi has allowed only three earned runs over his last five outings (0.6 ER per start) and just ten across his last ten (1.0 ER). Toronto’s lineup remains the league’s toughest to strike out at 6.4 K per game, but JDBetsHQ is fading offense, not chasing punch-outs. He acknowledged that the Jays tagged Eovaldi for seven earned in a start last season, yet pointed out the veteran added a slider this spring and is commanding it far better—reflected in a 29% hard-hit rate versus 37% last year. With the Rangers’ bats currently 27th in runs and 30th in hits, the analyst expects a low-scoring pace overall and is comfortable trusting recent form over stale historical splits.

Prince highlighted Sam Haggerty as a sneaky value who can be rostered at 1B, 2B, or OF on FanDuel, easing roster construction. Haggerty’s limited sample shows a robust .214 ISO versus righties and he benefits from hitting left-handed against Bowden Francis. Francis has been brutal against lefty bats in 2024: .400 opposing wOBA, .343 ISO allowed, and an alarming 73% hard-hit rate. With Texas projected to be a popular stack, Prince thinks Haggerty’s quiet box-score profile will keep ownership down while still offering home-run upside and lineup correlation.

Kyle Kargel recommended Adolis Garcia to go deep at +390 against Bowden Francis and the Blue Jays. Francis is tied for the MLB lead in home runs allowed this season, and Garcia already took him deep once in just four prior at-bats. The Rangers slugger’s profile screams righty masher: all 7 of his 2025 home runs have come off right-handed pitching, and he has averaged 30 homers per year over the last four seasons. He dominated Toronto in 2024 (.318 average, .591 slug) and is slugging more than 100 points higher at Globe Life Field than on the road this season. Rolling in with a three-game hit streak that includes a recent homer, Kargel likes Garcia’s chances to add another blast versus a pitcher prone to giving them up.

Peterson fired on Over 7.5 (projected 8.3). Toronto’s Bowden Francis leads MLB with 15 home runs allowed while sporting a 5.54 ERA and ghastly 6.50 FIP. Texas ace Nathan Eovaldi has been lights-out (1.60 ERA, 0.5 HR/9), but the Rangers’ bullpen ranks 19th with a 4.17 ERA and could leak late runs. Toronto’s pen is only middling (3.71 ERA). The combination of a homer-prone starter and two average relief corps convinced Peterson the market total is too low.

Lonte Smith recommended a full-game under 7.5 in Toronto–Texas, noting the perfect storm of an elite arm and two sputtering lineups. Nathan Eovaldi owns a 1.60 ERA (fifth-best in MLB) and league-leading 0.79 WHIP, surrendering only three total earned runs across his past six starts. Meanwhile, Texas has failed to clear three runs in seven of its last ten and was outscored 17-11 by the White Sox on a 1-5 road trip. Opposing opener-turned-starter Bowden Francis is shaky—15 homers allowed already and four-plus earned in three of his last five—yet routinely leaves before the sixth, allowing Bruce Bochy to shorten the game with his rested high-leverage bullpen. Smith projected a 3-1 or 2-1 finish and would only lean Rangers money-line if forced, preferring the total as the primary wager.

Kingpin Sports recommended Rangers ‑1.5, leaning on Nathan Eovaldi’s sparkling 1.60 ERA (4-3) against Bowden Francis’ rough 5.54. They project Eovaldi to silence Toronto’s bats while Texas’ offense provides comfortable separation.

Lonte Smith circled Wyatt Langford as his favorite home-run prop on Tuesday. Bowden Francis has already coughed up 15 long balls this season and ranks bottom-10 in barrel rate allowed, a perfect antidote for Langford’s power drought (no homers since May 17 despite hits in seven of his last eight games). Smith noted that Langford will bat near the top of the order, guaranteeing three to four plate appearances against Francis before Toronto can pivot to middle relief. With Globe Life’s retractable roof expected open—boosting carry—and Francis giving up a .540 slugging percentage the first time through a lineup, Smith sees +475 (or better) as mis-priced and is taking a swing on Langford to leave the yard.

Malcolm Bamford isolated Toronto’s lineup, betting a Blue Jays team-total under (expected 3.0) rather than laying –165 with Texas. He trusts Nathan Eovaldi—one earned run or fewer in six straight and a 33/6 K/BB over that span—to keep Toronto quiet, especially at Globe Life Park where Texas is 17-10. Bamford added that Bowden Francis’ own volatility (five of six starts failing to reach the sixth inning) could shorten the game and keep scoring chances scarce on both sides. He envisions a 2-1 or 3-1 Rangers victory with the Jays stuck on two runs or fewer.

Kenny G grabbed the under 8 in Arlington, noting this total should have opened 7.5. Nathan Eovaldi owns a 1.60 ERA and just blanked the Yankees for six frames, while Toronto counters with long-man-turned-starter Bowden Francis, who rarely works deep but will hand off to a bullpen that has shaved its ERA to 3.69. Both offenses look broken: the Blue Jays have scored 2-0-1-1 runs their last four, and Texas ranks 26th in runs, dead last in OBP and third-worst in batting average. Globe Life Field has been an under factory—Rangers home games are 22-6 to the under, best mark in MLB—and Toronto is 14-10-1 to the under on the road. Even if Francis wobbles, Kenny doubts Texas can do enough damage on its own, making a low-scoring grind the likeliest script.

Lindquist is on the over 7.5 in Rangers-Blue Jays, arguing the number should be 8.5. His case centers on Bowden Francis’ velocity drop (-0.5 MPH from 2023, ‑1.7 MPH from peak) and disastrous secondary offerings—split-finger .286 BA, curve .467 BA, slider .333 BA—that have led to a spike in barrels. Texas has shuffled struggling bats down the order, pushing its most productive hitters up and improving run-creation. On the other side, Nathan Eovaldi owns strong surface stats but faces a Toronto lineup that ranks near the league’s best at avoiding strikeouts (0 Ks versus Jacob deGrom last week) and carries positive BABIP regression cases for Bo Bichette and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Lindquist projects both lineups to generate sustained traffic, making over 7.5 at ‑120 or better a play worth locking in early.

Even while siding with Toronto, Cash Out Sports Picks prefers the UNDER. Nathan Eovaldi ranks fourth in MLB ERA (1.60) and first in WHIP (0.79). On the flip side, Bowden Francis has limited Texas hitters to a .167 average in his career, and the Rangers are averaging only 2.5 runs per game during their current 1-7 skid. The tout expects a few Jays tallies but not an offensive eruption, making runs scarce overall.

The tout flagged Vladimir Guerrero Jr. for props against Nathan Eovaldi after a ridiculous 5-for-7 (.714) history that already includes a homer. Guerrero has collected hits in 22 of his last 26 games, so the combination of sustained form and pitcher ownership makes him a strong over-hits or total-bases play.

Just A Bet Outside pointed to Bo Bichette (8-for-25), Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (10-for-23) and Alejandro Kirk (6-for-10) all sporting strong career numbers against Nathan Eovaldi. Even though Eovaldi has been in excellent form, the trio’s combined .408 average and two homers suggest leaning toward Blue Jays hit, total bases, or DFS exposure on Tuesday.

Eric Pathi said to back the Toronto Blue Jays again at +140 on the moneyline in Arlington. His angle is simple: when an underdog cashes on the road (Toronto won 2-1 on Memorial Day) and the books still hang another sizeable plus price the very next day, it creates what he calls a high-value repeat spot. Pathi noted that oddsmakers have not adjusted despite Toronto having already proved they can beat Texas in this park, so he sees no reason to walk away from the same matchup while the edge remains. He labeled it his complimentary play of the day for straight bettors looking for a live dog.

Cash Out Sports Picks is grabbing plus-money with Toronto. Texas has dropped seven of eight and sits 28th in scoring (3.33 RPG). Although Nathan Eovaldi owns a sparkling 1.60 ERA and 0.79 WHIP, the current Blue Jays roster holds a strong career slash line versus him over 129 ABs. If Toronto scratches out a few early runs and forces the Rangers’ 18th-ranked bullpen (4.08 ERA) into the game, the tout believes the Jays take it outright—no interest in laying –170 with a cold favorite.

Razzle labeled Kevin Gausman a volatile GPP option. His 5.5 K-prop (under juice) and +190 win odds trail deGrom, but Razzle highlighted Gausman’s spike-games: 9 Ks vs San Diego and 9 vs Cleveland despite both teams’ low K tendencies. On the road his HR rate drops, yet walks climb, creating a true feast-or-famine profile ideal for large-field tournaments when paired with Toronto bats for a win bonus hedge.

Cash Out Sports Picks backed the Rangers on the money line, pointing to a stark contrast between the two starters. Jacob deGrom owns a 1.80 ERA in May and has yielded only five runs in 25 innings, while Texas has won four of his last five starts and sports a 17-10 home record (14-4 when favored). Kevin Gausman, by contrast, carries a 5.27 road ERA, having surrendered at least three runs in four of five road outings. Toronto’s bats have vanished—just two total runs in a three-game sweep at Tampa—so the handicapper expects deGrom to dominate and the Rangers’ offense to wake up back in Arlington.

Cash Out Sports Picks recommended the full-game under (total set at 7). Kevin Gausman is coming off seven scoreless frames against San Diego, and deGrom has allowed only five runs across his last four starts combined. Neither lineup ranks in MLB’s top 22 for runs scored, and Toronto has managed just two runs in its last three games. With both aces expected to work deep and offenses sputtering, the tout projected a classic low-scoring opener.

Scott Reichel isolated Toronto’s struggling offense by betting the Blue Jays team total UNDER (market 2.5 juiced heavily or 3 flat). He trusts Jacob deGrom, who has fired 22 straight scoreless innings and owns a 1.48 ERA at Globe Life Field this season. Meanwhile the Jays have plated just two runs over their last three games and carry a .191 team average in their past ten road contests. Reichel wanted no part of Texas’ anemic lineup or shaky bullpen, so he focused strictly on Toronto’s side, expecting deGrom to work 7–8 frames and hold them to one or zero tallies.

Jay Yang advised taking the Toronto Blue Jays at +150 on the moneyline against the Texas Rangers. Yang called Texas an "over-rated favorite," pointing out that both clubs are coming off series losses (Blue Jays were swept by the Rays, Rangers dropped two of three to the White Sox), so recent form does not justify the price. His model shows additional value because Kevin Gausman projects for a quality start while Toronto’s bullpen ranks 12th in MLB and should hold any late lead. Conversely, Yang expects a low-scoring game that minimizes Jacob deGrom’s edge and allows Toronto’s stronger relief corps to flip the script in the later innings. The wager is contingent on the listed pitchers—Gausman for Toronto and deGrom for Texas—remaining intact. All of those factors combine to make the Blue Jays a live underdog worth a unit at the current +150 number.