B Wade advised taking Sean Burke over 2.5 earned runs allowed because the Diamondbacks offense is scorching. Arizona has been "firing on all cylinders," powered by a red-hot Ketel Marte and a lineup that’s stacked right-handed pop from top to bottom. Wade is not confident in Burke’s stuff holding them under three runs during his stint on the mound and expects Arizona to chase him early. He paired this over with the Wheeler under in a 3.2x Sleeper two-man entry and even used a 30% profit boost, emphasizing how strongly he leans toward Burke giving up at least three earned.

Malcom Bamford opted for an Arizona team-total OVER rather than a side because he believes Sean Burke’s surface numbers are masking red-flag underlying metrics. Bamford noted that most of Burke’s Statcast profile is bright red— hard-hit rate, barrel rate, expected ERA— indicating looming regression. The Diamondbacks have averaged 5.4 runs per game in June, second-best in MLB, and Miguel Vargas owns a .421 average with runners in scoring position since being recalled. Bamford also defended Ryne Nelson, arguing his bloated road ERA is the product of just two blow-ups; aside from those, Nelson has delivered quality work. He envisions a 6–4 or 7–5 type shootout that still allows Lonte’s White Sox first-five bet to cash while Arizona clears its team-total number.

Lonte Smith stuck to his Monday ritual of backing Chicago FIRST-FIVE and sprinkling the full-game money line, citing Sean Burke’s surge. Burke has allowed two earned runs or fewer in seven of his last ten starts and has been dominant at Guaranteed Rate Field, posting five straight home outings of two earned or less against quality opponents such as St. Louis, Detroit and Milwaukee. Smith acknowledged Ryne Nelson’s solid road form but emphasized Arizona is on its third straight road series and Chicago continues to cash first-five tickets despite an ugly overall record. For those feeling aggressive, Smith suggested adding a Burke-to-record-the-win prop at north of +200.

Lindquist recommended Arizona on the run line (-1.5) at Chicago. He admitted he was burned Monday but sees no reason to back off: the top of the D-Backs order — Ketel Marte, Pavin Smith and Corbin Carroll — hammered Chicago pitching for a combined 6-for-11 with two extra-base hits the last 24 hours, and the White Sox bullpen carries the league’s worst ERA (5.47) and HR/9 (1.46). Chicago projects to start rookie righty Drew Thorpe on short rest, while Arizona counters with steady veteran Jordan Montgomery, giving the Snakes a 0.8 FIP edge in his model. With hot, hitter-friendly weather again forecast at Guaranteed Rate Field, Lindquist is comfortable laying up to –110 on the run line rather than paying a bloated money-line price.

Kenny G "still likes" Arizona at -160 despite a couple of injury concerns because the matchup is so lopsided. Ryne Nelson owns a 3.88 ERA and is coming off strong outings against Toronto and San Diego, while Chicago is planning a full bullpen game with Jordan Leisure opening. The White Sox relief corps sits at 4.25 ERA and will have to cover 27 outs for a club that is 25-54 overall and dead-last in batting average. Arizona’s offense has erupted for 10, 2, 5, 14 and 9 runs its last five games and ranks third in MLB scoring, although Kenny cautioned that injuries to Suarez and Naylor could slightly dampen the ceiling. Even so, he views the matchup against MLB’s 28th-ranked offense as decisive: "When you suck this bad you get shut out sometimes," he quipped about Chicago’s bats. With the D-backs 19-20 on the road and the Sox 16-21 at home, Kenny doesn’t see a big enough home-field bump to offset the starting pitching and lineup gap, making -160 an acceptable lay.

Perrault fired on Over 9 in White Sox-Diamondbacks despite Arizona’s injury woes. He highlighted Jordan Leasure’s ugly Guaranteed Rate Field profile: 5.30 ERA, .260 BAA and 11 ER in only 18.2 home innings. Chicago has lost eight of his appearances in shoot-out fashion (finals of 8-6, 12-2, 7-5, etc.). Ryne Nelson is rarely allowed to face a lineup a third time and owns a 3.88 ERA but recently got torched for seven earned by Cincinnati. Arizona’s bullpen has been leaking for weeks and Chicago generally hits far better at home. Even after Monday’s 10-0 dud, Perrault expects both offenses to bounce back, so he bet Over 9 runs at –105.

At ‑132, JDBetsHQ considers Arizona a gift against the White Sox. The Snakes are 6-4 over their last ten, rested Corbin Carroll and Ketel Marte on Sunday, and now face Chicago’s 26th-ranked offense in hits. Eduardo Rodriguez has posted a 2.4 expected earned-run mark over his past five outings, limiting even the Dodgers to moderate damage, while Chicago counters with Erick Fedde—loser of seven of his past ten in hits allowed. Despite Coors Field inflating weekend numbers, JD reminded listeners you still have to barrel the ball, and Arizona has been doing exactly that. With the Diamondbacks better in every key metric (runs, walks, OBP, slug) and the Sox bullpen reeling, JD slammed the moneyline and will likely attach it to his Monday parlay.

Guy Boston Sports leaned toward Arizona at –120 but called it only a half-unit wager because Chicago has quietly mauled southpaws. Over the last 30 days the White Sox rank 8th in batting average, 6th in wRC+, 6th in OPS, and 3rd in both ISO and slugging versus left-handed pitching. Even so, he trusts Arizona’s deeper lineup and bullpen edge. Eduardo Rodriguez will attack with four-seamers, cutters and sinkers—pitches Chicago has actually graded below league average against—while the Diamondbacks offense sits top-10 in wRC+ overall and should enjoy a big park downgrade after leaving Coors Field. The travel spot (Rockies to White Sox with no day off) and Rodriguez’s reputation kept him from going larger, but he still prefers D-backs full game and leans to the over 8.5 because if Rodriguez is shaky the total can cash anyway. Conversely, anyone backing the White Sox should pair it with the under, in his view.

Razzle called Eduardo Rodriguez a boom-bust option he will embrace because the slate lacks safe strikeout volume. Rodriguez has already coughed up 11 homers in 60 innings and carries ugly road splits, but he owns individual starts of 12, 9 and 10 strikeouts this season. Razzle set the bar at 20 DraftKings points; with the night’s scorching temperatures inflating offense everywhere, that output would be slate-winning relative to salary. The comparison to Nick Lodolo underscores the risk, yet E-Rod’s slightly softer matchup and ability to spike double-digit K’s keep him in Razzle’s core GPP pool.

Mark’s first official ticket is Arizona –1.5 runs in Chicago. The White Sox sit in his bottom-five power tier and face a rested D-backs lineup that benched several starters Sunday. A 20-mph wind out to left at Guaranteed Rate Field should magnify Arizona’s power edge, and Chicago’s bullpen owns a bottom-three ERA since June 1. Given those factors, Mark expects an ‘explosion’ from Arizona’s offense and sees plus-money value in laying the extra run.

Eric Lindquist called the Chicago White Sox money line his favorite play on Monday against Arizona. He noted that Corbin Carroll is nursing a bruised hand and is "very unlikely" to appear, while Ketel Marte’s late-game pinch-hit Sunday suggests the star second-baseman may still be limited. Lindquist added that Eduardo Rodriguez has not looked like the Detroit version of himself since joining the Diamondbacks, carrying a 2.55 expected batting average, .426 expected slug and 8% walk rate that make him overpriced as a road favorite. On the other side, Lindquist actually trusts starter James Smith— the lone White Sox arm he is willing to back— because of his tidy .321 xwOBA, 3.74 xSLG, 21.3% strikeout rate and only 5.8% barrel rate allowed. Combining the watered-down Arizona lineup with Smith’s solid underlying skills and a plus-money price in most books, Lindquist advised taking the White Sox down to -105 and labeled it the strongest of his three board picks.

Reichel is playing White Sox first-five moneyline versus Eduardo Rodriguez. He called E-Rod’s road splits "brutal"—a 6.07 ERA with opponents batting .319—and highlighted Rodriguez needing nearly 100 pitches to escape five innings in Toronto despite only two earned runs allowed. Guaranteed Rate Field weather shows 92-degree heat but only an 11 mph cross-breeze, so he does not fear a wind-blown shootout. Chicago has fared better against lefties, and Shane Smith owns a 2.85 ERA with only one clunker in his last three. Add in Corbin Carroll’s questionable status after missing the Rockies series and the Diamondbacks’ bottom-five bullpen, and Scott sees value taking the Sox to be leading after five.

Arizona owns a .784 team OPS, third best in baseball, while Chicago’s .635 is dead last. Even with both pitching staffs slogging through the week (5.28 and 5.37 ERAs), the two-tier offensive gap matters: the Diamondbacks have taken eight of the last ten head-to-head meetings. Cash Out Sports Picks therefore locked in the D-backs money-line, confident their bats will outpace Chicago’s struggling lineup.

Big Al said to lay the –130 price with the Arizona Diamondbacks because he expects Eduardo Rodriguez to out-duel the White Sox. Although Rodriguez owns an ugly 2-4 record and 5.93 season ERA, Al pointed out that the left-hander has quietly turned the corner in June, posting a 2.81 ERA and a 1-1 record over three starts this month. Rodriguez has also dominated on Chicago’s South Side throughout his career, going 4-0 with a 2.22 ERA in four previous outings at Guaranteed Rate Field (formerly Comiskey). With a short Monday slate and no WNBA action, Al views the Diamondbacks as the best betting opportunity available and recommends backing them on the moneyline.