Guy Boston’s favorite angle for Colorado-Atlanta is the Rockies team total under. Colorado has scored just three and two runs in the first two games of the series, and today they face Chris Sale, whose slider/fastball combo should play even at altitude if the breaker is working. Boston acknowledged the Coors Field run-environment risk but trusts Sale’s 30% K-rate and sees no glaring matchup advantage for the Rockies’ top bats. He considered Atlanta’s team total over 5.5 but decided the better value is fading a Colorado lineup that owns the league’s fourth-worst wRC+ versus left-handed pitching. Even with elevation, you still have to barrel the baseball, and Boston is willing to bet the Rockies will not do it often enough tonight.

Adam Rosenberg liked Sean Murphy to clear 1.5 total bases against Colorado at Coors Field. He pointed out that the Braves lineup is "mashing in general," while Rockies starter Dollinger (and the entire bullpen) have been "horrible," giving Atlanta a juicy offensive environment. Even though Murphy is batting seventh, Rosenberg expects plenty of RBI spots and multiple plate appearances in the altitude-aided park. With Coors carrying the league’s highest park factor for extra-base hits and Murphy’s hard-hit rate sitting north of 45% since returning from the IL, Rosenberg felt the over provides plus-money upside in both betting markets and Underdog entries.

Responding to a listener question, Adam Rosenberg leaned over 6.5 strikeouts for Chris Sale even in Coors Field. Sale’s stuff has remained elite this season and the Rockies own one of baseball’s worst lineups, striking out frequently and ranking near the bottom in wRC+. Rosenberg argued that Colorado’s home park won’t save them from Sale’s swing-and-miss slider and projected the veteran lefty to push past seven punch-outs against a weak opponent.

Malcolm Bamford is laying the –1.5 first-five run line with Atlanta. Chris Sale is not working deep, but Bamford trusts him to dominate early after noticing Sale’s eye-popping career numbers at Coors Field: a 1.04 ERA and 29-to-1 K/BB across multiple outings. Sale faces a Rockies lineup batting .206 against lefties. On the other side, Chase Dollander has allowed 11 earned in his last two starts, and Colorado’s bullpen offers little relief. Bamford projects Atlanta to jump in front quickly and sees a multi-run edge by the middle of the fifth.

Dylan Rockford is playing Atlanta’s team total over (and would also sprinkle full-game over 10). Colorado pitching has been a turnstile: the staff has coughed up 6, 8, 8, 6, 8 and 6 runs the last six contests. Rookie Chase Dollander has been battered for 4+ earned in both Coors starts— those came against the A’s and Nationals, not an offense with Ronald Acuna Jr. and Matt Olson. The Braves have won eight of their last ten and are averaging exactly six runs during that stretch while hitting .324 wOBA vs right-handers. Rockford says anything at 5.5 or lower on Atlanta’s TT is playable because six or seven feels like the floor.

Kyle Purviance advised laying the 1.5 runs with Atlanta when Chris Sale faces rookie Chase Dollander in Colorado. Kyle called the Rockies "the worst team I've ever seen" and noted they are striking out roughly one-third of the time against left-handed pitching while carrying a bottom-tier OPS in that split. Sale, meanwhile, "needs this game" and draws an offense that whiffs incessantly. On the other side, Dollander has already been tagged in Coors and owns shaky minor-league numbers, giving the Braves’ loaded lineup a huge edge. Because the moneyline is certain to be heavily juiced (he expects around –290 or shorter), Kyle prefers the run line or using Atlanta in a road-team run-line parlay.

Romanelli likes the game total under because Chris Sale’s strikeout rate and recent form have improved, while Colorado’s lineup owns one of the league’s highest K-rates versus lefties. Rockies rookie Chase Dollander carries a 3.93 xFIP and 3.74 SIERA—much better than his surface ERA—and Ron thinks the former No. 1 prospect will keep the ball in the yard. With both starters trending up and the number inflated simply because the contest is at Coors, he sees value on the under.

Despite Chris Sale taking the ball for Atlanta, Lindquist hammered the Over 10 at Coors. He explained that a total of 10 offers a valuable push number in high-variance parks and that rookie Chase Dollander’s Statcast page is a disaster—19.4 % barrel rate and .625 expected slugging allowed. The Braves own MLB’s third-best hard-hit rate (44 %), so Lindquist expects them to do most of the lifting, while even a bad Rockies lineup can scrape a few across in the thin air during an afternoon game. His model projects 11.7 runs, making anything at 10 or lower “an auto-bet.”

Stephen from Just A Bet Outside said the only strikeout prop that really jumps off the Wednesday card is Chris Sale over his listed K total in Colorado. His case boiled down to two angles: first, the Rockies own the third-highest strikeout rate against left-handed pitching over the last three weeks at 29.1 %, an even uglier number than what we saw from the 2023 White Sox. Second, Sale is still missing plenty of bats—36 punch-outs in 28.1 innings—and he carries a 33.9 % strikeout rate versus right-handed hitters, exactly the handedness he will see up and down Colorado’s lineup. Sale’s only game against a top-10 strikeout opponent produced eight strikeouts, and this will be just his second such plus matchup of the season. Stephen acknowledged Sale’s velo is down a tick and he has yet to clear five innings in 2024, but he still projects the Atlanta lefty for 6–8 Ks given the free-swinging profile of the Rockies and the slider that falls off the table to righties. He framed it as the one K prop worth attacking on the slate.

Zachary Roberts made Marcell Ozuna his top home-run play at +240. Ozuna sports a .952 OPS with five homers, but only one has come in the last seven days, making him ‘due’ in Roberts’ eyes. The Braves’ slugger draws rookie right-hander Chase Dollander, who has been rocked for a 7.93 ERA and has struggled to keep the ball in the park. Roberts argued that Atlanta’s potent lineup will force Dollander into high-leverage fastballs, exactly the pitch type Ozuna crushes. With warm weather and a friendly park factor, Roberts believes Ozuna even has multi-homer upside against the Rockies’ shaky pitching staff.

Ruffolo grabbed Matt Olson at +245 despite the short number because the setting and matchup are perfect. German Marquez enters with a 13.19 ERA over four April starts and a 48.6% hard-hit rate. Olson has been crushing right-handers, launching three homers over the past two weeks while posting a 16.9% barrel rate and a team-best 57.1% hard-hit percentage. Coors Field’s altitude amplifies every hard-hit ball, and Ruffolo expects Marquez to finally pay for all the contact he’s been allowing, making Olson a premium HR prop target.

JD Bets laid the –196 moneyline with Atlanta, saying the price is still playable because Colorado looks completely helpless. The Rockies have dropped eight straight and own a 4-24 record, while the Braves have surged to 13-15 after an 0-8 start. German Marquez’s career numbers versus Atlanta’s core are ugly: Travis d’Arnaud (.364 AVG, 1.200 OPS) and Marcell Ozuna (2.600 OPS with a homer) headline four Atlanta hitters still above .300 against right-handed pitching over the last ten. Coors Field’s 10.5 total speaks to run-prevention concerns, and JD does not trust either starter (AJ Smith-Shawver vs Marquez) for props in that environment. Instead, he leaned on Atlanta’s superior lineup depth and recent form, saying the Braves can “cover this on offense alone” against a Rockies club ranking bottom-five in every meaningful category outside of triples. Under –200 hits his personal risk-reward threshold, so the Braves ML made his short card on an otherwise value-thin slate.

The tout advised backing Atlanta on the run line against a 4-24 Colorado club that owns MLB’s worst run differential. Colorado ranks bottom-five in OPS and runs, while German Marquez has yet to record a win and carries ugly splits: Braves hitters have a .345 lifetime average and homer once every 7.25 at-bats against him. Even with Atlanta leaning on a bullpen game at Coors, their deeper lineup and Colorado’s 15 losses in the last 16 (10 by multiple runs) make the Braves a clear play to win comfortably.

Lindquist was surprised books opened the Braves–Rockies total at a consensus 10.5 (-115 both sides). He expects a classic Coors shoot-out: only a light 6 mph wind in from center, comfortable temperatures, and German Marquez— who surrendered a .500-plus xSLG last season— taking the mound for Colorado. Atlanta’s lineup is fully healthy and top-3 in MLB versus right-handed pitching, while Colorado should face a back-end Atlanta starter yet to be announced. Given the park factor and pitching mismatch, Lindquist feels anything under 11 is value and plans to fire on the over if the juice does not climb.

Lonte Smith tabbed Marcell Ozuna as his home-run prop of the day, citing the perfect storm of a red-hot Braves lineup heading into Coors Field. Atlanta has scored six runs per game during its current 7-3 surge, and Ozuna is dialing in—back-to-back two-hit games and a 111-mph max exit velocity over that span. Smith noted that Ozuna’s barrel rate (15.7%) outweighs his modest four homers, hinting at positive regression. Throw in the mile-high altitude, a weather forecast calling for 78-degree temps, and a Rockies pitching staff allowing a league-worst 1.54 HR/9 at home, and he likes Ozuna at anything +400 or better to leave the yard, projecting a 425-foot shot to left-center off right-hander Dakota Hudson.

Calling Colorado “White Sox-level bad but worse,” Lonte Smith made the Braves –1.5 his favorite chalk play on the card. The Rockies have cratered to 4-23 overall and an ugly 9-17 against the run line, forcing bettors to demand +500 or better before even considering them in his model. Atlanta, by contrast, has rediscovered its stroke—7-3 over the last ten with six runs per game in the victories—after Smith personally stopped betting on them, a superstition he jokingly cited. Even with the Braves starter still TBD, Smith trusts their bullpen depth (top-five in fWAR) and an offense that ranks first in hard-hit rate to rough up either Germán Márquez or prospect Chase Dollander. He projected an 8-3 type of score and said he will also sprinkle the Braves team-total over once numbers open.

Brian Howard called the Colorado Rockies “the worst team in the history of baseball” and will fire on an Atlanta Braves double-result (lead after five innings and win the game) as long as it returns plus money. Even without knowing Atlanta’s starter, Howard is confident because Colorado is 5-21 on the road, ranks dead last in wRC+, and trots out German Marquez, who is easing back from Tommy John surgery and has surrendered a .406 OBP the first time through the order. Atlanta’s offense, averaging 5.6 runs per game at home, should jump on Marquez early, and Howard trusts the Braves’ top-five bullpen to finish the job.

Kyle Purviance said bettors should look to fade Atlanta whenever Bryce Elder is on the mound. He pointed to Monday’s game in Colorado as yet another example—despite the Rockies being baseball’s worst club, they jumped out to a quick 3-0 lead against Elder before falling apart late. Purviance’s broader point was that Elder rarely misses bats and routinely puts his team in early holes, creating live-bet or full-game opportunities to take the opposing side or the opposing team total. While the Braves’ offense can bail him out, Kyle emphasized that the right-hander’s volatility makes Atlanta overpriced whenever he draws the start.

Pisapia recommended taking Matt Olson to record at least one RBI at even money (+100) in Monday’s game at Coors Field. The total has already been bet up to 10.5 thanks to a pitching matchup of Bryce Elder versus Ryan Feltner, and Pisapia expects Atlanta’s left-handed thunder to feast on Feltner’s .371 career wOBA allowed to lefties. Olson owns a .312 ISO in Denver and is coming off a weekend in which he posted back-to-back multi-hit games, suggesting the bat is heating up. With Ronald Acuna and Ozzie Albies consistently on base in front of him and Colorado’s bullpen ranking 28th in xFIP, Pisapia believes Olson sees at least four high-leverage plate appearances and cashes the RBI prop more than the implied 50 % of the time.