Calling it a "lean-like" play he’ll add below ‑140 vig, Lindquist likes Pittsburgh’s team total under 3.5 against Framber Valdez. Valdez’s heavy sinker/curve combo generates a 63 % ground-ball rate and erases same-side lefties—bad news for O’Neil Cruz and Bryan Reynolds, the Pirates’ only true threats. Without Yordan Alvarez, Houston can keep Victor Caratini’s switch-hit bat in the lineup for framing, further benefiting Valdez. On the year Pittsburgh ranks 28th in wRC+ against left-handed pitching (78) and owns the league’s fifth-highest GB% versus southpaws, playing directly into Valdez’s strength. Lindquist projects 2.8 runs and will fire if the juice drops.

It's The Final Round noted Kyle Tucker is 3-for-4 (.750) lifetime off MacKenzie Gore and has hits in 9 of his last 11. The limited history plus current form makes Tucker a viable 1-hit or 2-plus total-bases prop despite the lefty-lefty matchup.

It's The Final Round flagged Jeremy Pena as another prop target against Mike Burrows. Burrows has faced right-handed hitters in only two starts but is coughing up a .333 average and a 34.5% sweet-spot rate (200th of 368). Meanwhile, Pena is on a tear—.393 against righties in the last 10 days with a 9-for-10 hit streak, seven cashes on hits+runs+RBIs, and six on total bases. The tout likes any of those markets at reasonable juice once books open, stressing that the current form plus Burrows’ mediocre contact profile sets up Pena for multiple ways to get on the board.

Malcolm Bamford was "delighted" to see Houston sitting at -130 and immediately paired them with Miami in a two-teamer. He expected a sub--150 tag given Burrows’ 1.56 WHIP and identical four-earned-run disasters in his first two outings. Gusto will only need to cover three or four innings before Houston’s rested middle relievers take over, and Bamford notes every total trend pointed under—further evidence Burrows may not survive a second trip through a locked-in Astros order. He labeled Houston the card’s strongest straight bet and an automatic parlay leg.

Lonte Smith said the -130 money-line on Houston is a gift and would hang the Astros closer to -150. His buy case rests on rookie Mike Burrows coughing up eight earned runs in just 8.1 MLB innings while serving up three homers in BOTH of his starts. Opposite him, swingman Ryan Gusto has permitted two earned or fewer in back-to-back turns, and the Astros’ attack is humming—Jeremy Pena is spraying base hits and swiping bags, lengthening the lineup behind Kyle Tucker and Yordan Alvarez. Smith expects Houston to reach Pittsburgh’s shaky bullpen early and likes the Astros in the game and the entire series.

Kenny G leaned to Houston at –134, saying the price is short given how brutal Pittsburgh looks right now. Mike Burrows owns an 8.64 ERA through two big-league starts, coughing up nine runs in 8⅓ innings, and the Pirates bullpen is no help with a 4.52 ERA. Offensively, Pittsburgh sits 28th in runs and dead-last in slugging, putting up just 0–4 runs in five of their past seven games. Kenny acknowledged Ryan Gusto’s rocky transition to the rotation (Astros have lost his last five outings and he sports a 4.62 ERA), but Houston’s relief corps remains a strength and the lineup—while sputtering at three runs or fewer in four of five—still grades better than the Pirates. With Houston 13-10-2 to the under on the road and Pittsburgh 15-14-1 to the under at home, he passed on the total and framed Astros –134 as the only viable side until Pittsburgh shows life.

Lindquist highlighted Spencer Horwitz as another deep home-run/total-bases dart. The newly-acquired left-handed bat draws inexperienced right-hander Ryan Gusto in Houston. Lindquist noted Gusto’s minor-league splits showed a .383 wOBA and 1.7 HR/9 allowed to lefties, and the Crawford Boxes in Minute Maid Park reward pull-side lift even though right field plays big. Horwitz owns above-average raw power (.545 minor-league SLG vs RHP) and profiles as a pure pull hitter, giving him a realistic shot to leave the yard at long odds similar to the Anthony Volpe bomb Lindquist cashed earlier in the week.

Bettor Mark is laying the ‑136 with Houston in Pittsburgh, saying the number should be north of ‑150. He’s ridden a profitable season-long fade of Paul Skenes starts and sees a similar edge today against fellow rookie Jared Jones Burrows (whom he expects to struggle with Astros right-handed thunder). Houston’s offense has been heating up, and Mark thinks Wednesday is the spot where they "really break out" after beating Skenes the night before. With the Astros owning the superior lineup, bullpen and defensive metrics, he made them an official play despite being a road favorite.

Even with rookie Spencer Arrighetti ("Gusto" in the transcript) getting rocked for 11 ER in his last 12 innings, Cash Out Sports Picks laid the moneyline with Houston because of an overwhelming lineup and bullpen gap. The Astros rank 13th in OPS (.711) and have won 7 of 10, whereas Pittsburgh sits 27th in OPS (.646) and owns a 4.46 bullpen ERA (21st). Pirates spot-starter Braxton Burrows has surrendered 9 ER in 8.1 innings this year and 11 ER over 11.2 for his career. Houston’s pen is top-10 (3.53 ERA). Given those extremes, the tout felt the price on the better roster was still worth paying.

Sean Zerillo advised bettors to quit shorting Lance McCullers Jr. because the right-hander’s pitch models show a sharp upward trend since returning from the IL. McCullers opened the season with 97, 87 and 97 Stuff+ marks, but has popped 105 and 115 in his last two starts. His batted-ball ERA has fallen from 5.45 to 3.24 and then 2.82 across that stretch. Zerillo expects continued improvement as the veteran regains full arm strength and said any price fading Houston simply because of McCullers’ early surface numbers is now stale value.

Collin Whitchurch grabbed Houston at +140 to spoil Paul Skenes-day, arguing the Pirates’ roster is too weak to justify making them favorites when the bullpens and offenses enter the equation. Skenes owns a 1.91 ERA in his last seven starts, yet Pittsburgh is just 3-4 in those games and 5-7 overall behind their rookie ace—evidence, according to Whitchurch, that the bats and bullpen cannot carry the baton. He expects Lance McCullers Jr. to look more like the guy who struck out 12 Athletics over six innings last time out now that the right-hander is fully stretched following a long injury layoff. That matchup is ideal because the Pirates are the third-worst offense against right-handed pitching by wRC+. Whitchurch trusts Houston’s late-inning combo of Ryan Pressly and company over a shaky Pittsburgh relief corps and gives the Astros lineup a huge firepower edge if Skenes exits with a tight score. He makes Houston slight road favorites and will bet the moneyline down to +120, calling it one of the rare chances to get plus odds with a clearly superior overall club.

Donnie Rightside advised fading Oneil Cruz in every hits or total-bases market tonight because the lanky shortstop draws a nightmare matchup against Lance McCullers. McCullers has annihilated left-handed hitters in 2025, holding them to a .105 ISO, .252 wOBA and – most importantly – a 41 percent strike-out rate. That profile dovetails perfectly with Cruz, who whiffs 40 percent of the time versus right-handed pitching. Rightside quipped that Cruz "might not even get a foul ball" and added that the 79-degree weather at PNC won’t matter if he never puts a ball in play. The handicap reinforces his earlier under 7.5 game-total lean for Astros–Pirates: if Cruz is neutralized, the Pittsburgh lineup loses its biggest left-handed threat and run production should stay muted.

Mills Young advised betting Paul Skenes over 6.5 strikeouts. The rookie flame-thrower has topped this number in three of his past five outings, a 60 % hit rate the PickDawgz betting tools flag as profitable. Skenes is averaging better than 1.3 K per inning, and Young sees no reason to fade him against another swing-and-miss lineup, calling the line 'too low not to go.'

JD Bets backed the Pirates at -148 because Paul Skenes has been, in his words, "lights out" while finally projecting to get real run support. Skenes has allowed two or fewer earned runs in four straight starts against offenses far better than Houston’s—namely New York, Philadelphia, Milwaukee, and Arizona—and has not surrendered 5+ hits in five of his last six outings. He has also rung up 7–9 strikeouts in each of his past three appearances. By contrast, Lance McCullers carries a 2.4-ERA average over his last five but those games came against bottom-tier lineups (Oakland, Seattle, Texas, Chicago). JD argued that if Pittsburgh’s bats—top-5 in most recent form—show up again, Skenes should cruise to a win, making the Buccos’ moneyline the simplest path to profit.

Kenny G said the Pirates deserve a look at -142 behind rookie ace Paul Skenes. Skenes has been lights-out lately—no more than one earned run allowed in four straight starts and a 2.15 season ERA—while Pittsburgh has won his last two outings. Houston counters with Lance McCullers Jr. (5.89 ERA) and an offense that has scored just 1,3,2,3 and 5 runs over its last five contests, ranking 19th in MLB runs despite a top-10 batting average. The Astros are also 10-15 on the road. Kenny admits the Pirates’ 4.45 bullpen ERA and bottom-of-the-barrel offense (28th in runs, last in SLG) are concerns, but believes seven strong from Skenes is enough to overcome them and cash the ticket.

Romanelli recommended taking Pittsburgh on both the moneyline and run line because rookie phenom Paul Skenes is locked in while Lance McCullers Jr. remains volatile. Skenes has ripped through his last several opponents, and the Pirates have been competitive in each of his outings. Conversely, McCullers followed a 12-strikeout feel-good performance with a seven-run first inning meltdown and is still shaking off rust after missing the 2023–24 seasons. Romanelli also pointed out that the Pirates just held their own against San Diego and have been competitive in four straight series, so the plus-money price behind the better current form on the mound is too good to pass up.

Cash Out Sports Picks backed the Pirates money line because Paul Skenes is simply dealing right now. Skenes owns a 2.15 ERA, a microscopic 0.92 WHIP, and has surrendered only 8 earned runs across his last 37.2 innings. Pittsburgh is 2-0 this season when he opens a home series, while the Astros have stumbled to a 2-6 record as road dogs in their last eight. Houston counters with an inexperienced rookie who has already been tagged for 12 earned in 18.1 innings, and Lance McCullers Jr. has barely pitched the past two years. With the Pirates holding a clear starting-pitching advantage and Houston’s offense averaging just 3.52 runs on the road, the tout labeled Pittsburgh the right side Tuesday night.