Mark leaned toward taking San Diego at +136, arguing that St. Louis is bottom-10 in runs scored despite a respectable batting average, signaling poor situational hitting. With Randy Vasquez facing Matthew Liberatore, he believes the pitching matchup is close to neutral, so plus money on the Padres is an overlay. He noted the Padres had recently won three of six before a four-game skid and thinks their ceiling is still higher than a struggling Cardinals lineup.

It’s The Final Round recommended Manny Machado props against struggling southpaw Matthew Liberatore. The Cardinals pitcher has been torched lately—right-handed hitters have a .270 average on the season, .278 in Busch Stadium, and an eye-popping .563 mark over the past 15 days. Machado is heating up himself, logging 2-3-2 hits over his last three contests, posting a .261 clip vs lefties this year and .281 overall in the past week (nine hits). The tout highlighted the tiny but perfect history—Machado’s lone career at-bat versus Liberatore left the yard. Outlier’s model assigns a 75% hit probability, 50% chance to score, 45% chance for an RBI, and a 10-12 fantasy-point projection, making Machado a core play for Saturday slates.

Scott Reichel’s home-run dart lands on Manny Machado versus Miles Mikolas. Reichel wants to fade Mikolas’ recent skid—15 earned runs and five long balls allowed over his last three road turns—inside a game that co-host Lonte Smith already projected as a shoot-out with 90-degree heat in St. Louis. Machado owns two career homers off Mikolas despite a modest .235 average, and Reichel likes that the Padres’ third baseman is trending up after a two-hit night that included a laser-beam double. Mikolas’ sinker has generated just a 38% ground-ball rate since July 1, a red flag against Machado’s loft-heavy swing (41% fly-ball rate this month). Reichel expects books to hang a price in the +350 range and thinks the combination of weather, Mikolas’ declining ground-ball profile, and Machado’s form make that number playable for both prop bettors and one-off DFS tournaments.

Kenny G is comfortable paying –135 for San Diego, citing a massive mound mismatch. Nick Pivetta is 10-2 with a 2.81 ERA and has allowed just two earned runs across his last five starts (Padres 4-1 in that span). He’ll hand the ball to MLB’s best bullpen (3.13 ERA) once he’s done. Miles Mikolas, meanwhile, sports a bloated 5.20 ERA and has been "shelled" by Arizona and Chicago in two of his last three. St. Louis’ once-elite lineup has cooled dramatically, and although the bullpen has steadied at 3.65, the Cards’ home-field edge (29-20) is negated by their current skid. The Padres have been an under team on the road (29-22-2), but Kenny expects their bats to do enough against Mikolas while Pivetta and the pen slam the door. He’ll play San Diego regardless of Thursday’s result but loves it even more if the Cardinals steal Game 1 and inflate the price.

Eric Lindquist said Alec Burleson over 1.5 total bases is his favorite prop in the Cardinals-Padres matchup. Lindquist pointed to Nick Pavetta’s 11.4 % barrel rate and long-running tendency to cough up loud contact once the weather turns hot. Pavetta’s four-seam/curveball mix has allowed a .500-plus expected slugging to left-handers since June, and Friday’s muggy St. Louis forecast should help the ball carry. Burleson owns a .481 expected slugging percentage and a 17.6-degree average launch angle—highest among Cardinal lefties—so Lindquist expects at least a double or a pair of singles to clear the 1.5-base line.

Eric Lindquist advised betting Alec Burleson over 1.5 total bases Friday against Nick Pivetta. St. Louis finally has mid-summer weather – high 90s, humid, with a light breeze out – which historically turns Busch into a sneaky hitter’s park. Pivetta’s early-season whiff surge has evaporated; his barrel rate is up to 11.4% and his average exit velo allowed sits at 91 mph. Lefties in particular have mauled him for a .520 xSLG. Burleson leads all Cardinal lefties with a 17.6° average launch angle and a .481 expected slug, giving him the ideal batted-ball profile to punish Pivetta’s four-seam/curve mix. Lindquist trusts Burleson “more than anyone at these prices” and expects at least a double or multiple singles, making the 1.5 total-base prop plus-EV at anything better than +110.

Cash Out Sports Picks grabbed San Diego on the moneyline, believing Nick Pivetta gives the Friars the better arm opposite Miles Mikolas. Pivetta owns a 3.78 road ERA across 50 innings and has looked sharper than Yu Darvish recently. St. Louis is wobbling post-break, having just DFA’d Eric Fedde and eyeing sell-mode at the deadline after dropping a series to Colorado. With the Cardinals’ bats cooling and Mikolas rarely trustworthy, the tout forecasted a bounce-back Padres victory.

Drew Martin advised backing the Padres at –127 behind Nick Pivetta. The 32-year-old right-hander is 10-2 on the season and has allowed only two earned runs over his last 33 innings (five straight victories). Martin contrasted that with Miles Mikolas, who has surrendered five-plus earned runs in three of his last four starts and been tagged for 10 homers during that span. While neither lineup is on fire, Martin likes San Diego’s stronger bullpen and trusts Pivetta’s current form enough to lay the short road price in St. Louis.

Cash Out Sports Picks preferred St. Louis on the moneyline. Yu Darvish has appeared in only three games, yielding nine runs and seven walks in 13.1 innings, indicating command problems that could be exposed by a Cardinals lineup batting .263 at home and averaging 4.75 runs in Busch Stadium. St. Louis sticks with Sonny Gray, 9-4 with a 4.04 ERA, who historically rebounds after poor outings and has limited Padres hitters to a .150 average over 40 at-bats. The Padres sit 20th in batting average since the break, and with bullpens essentially even, he trusts Gray and the Cardinals much more than Darvish and a cold San Diego lineup.

B Wade played Manny Machado over 1.5 hits+runs+RBIs at Parlay Play. Machado has eclipsed the mark in 6 of his past 10 contests and has handled Sonny Gray historically: 17 plate appearances, .412 average, two home runs, four RBIs, and just a 11.8 % strikeout rate (2 Ks). Wade believes those numbers suggest Machado will put the ball in play at least once, with upside for extra bases or run production to clear the prop.

Eric Pathy advised taking the San Diego Padres as +120 underdogs against the St. Louis Cardinals on 7/24/25. His core angle is simple: when a road favorite gets hammered and then returns home as chalk the very next day, he automatically fades them. The Cardinals fit that profile after losing 6-0 as road favorites in Colorado. Despite the quick travel turnaround, bookmakers still opened St. Louis at –140, creating what Pathy sees as an inflated line. By grabbing the Padres at plus money, bettors capture both the situational edge and the long-running underdog strategy that has produced a 25 % return on risk for him this week.

Lindquist believes the market is shorting St. Louis despite a clear starting-pitching edge. Sonny Gray paces the five-game slate in xFIP and strikeout rate, while Yu Darvish owns a 254 xBA, 370 xSLG, an inflated 11.5 % walk rate, and—most concerning—a 13.5 % K-rate well below career norms. San Diego’s strong bullpen keeps him from making it an official play yet, but with only five games on the board he expects Cardinals ML to be upgraded if the price does not correct.

Malcom Bamford said the only real value left on Thursday’s skinny slate is the Padres moneyline at roughly +120 against St. Louis. He refuses to lay a price with Sonny Gray after the veteran was torched for eight earned runs by Arizona and, as Bamford noted earlier, his entire July game log is "in disarray." The Cardinals’ bullpen grades out league-average while San Diego’s is noticeably better when fully rested. With Yu Darvish another start removed from the IL and likely to work deeper, Bamford argued the wrong team might be favored. Given Gray’s current form, the plus-money price on San Diego is an automatic play and serves as his official underdog lock.