Bettor Mark likes Boston at –130, explaining that Jose Pepiot shows flashes but is inconsistent, while Brayan Bayo has been “serviceable” and now gets run support from a Red Sox lineup that is finally healthy and getting regular at-bats for Rafael Devers and Wilyer Abreu. With Fenway’s park factor and a surging offense, he prefers the BoSox side even though he did not label it an official play.

Kenny G leaned to Tampa Bay at +110 despite the club’s three-game skid. He worries about Brian Bellow after a 114-pitch complete game against Colorado—an atypical workload that previously led to a drop-off in his next start (mediocre outing versus San Francisco after a seven-inning stint vs New York). Rays righty Ryan Pepiot, meanwhile, has surrendered two earned runs or fewer in five straight starts and carries a 3.32 ERA. Tampa’s bullpen ERA has crept near 4.00, but Boston’s relief excellence doesn’t erase the potential for Bellow regression. The Red Sox have rattled off nine straight wins, yet Kenny believes that streak inflates the price and Pepiot’s upside plus plus-money makes Tampa the betting side.

Cash Out Sports Picks laid out a case for the Red Sox moneyline. Boston is 7-2 vs Tampa this season and seeks a four-game sweep. They own a 29-20 record at Fenway, lead the AL with 275 home runs scored in their park, and hit .267 there. Brayan Bello has been superb at home (4-2, 3.38 ERA; 2.52 ERA last four Fenway starts with 20 K). Conversely, Ryan Pepiot is 1-3 with a 3.72 ERA on the road and was torched for six runs by Boston in April. The Rays have lost nine of twelve away games, while the Sox ride an eight-game win streak—the handicapper trusts Bello and Boston’s form to continue.

Ryan Wormeli predicted Junior Caminero will eclipse 40 homers this season and be drafted as a consensus top-three third baseman by 2026. Wormeli cited Caminero’s 22 first-half long balls, 100th-percentile bat speed, and rare ability to drive the ball to all fields—his homers are evenly distributed pull/center/opposite. Statcast’s poor sweet-spot and squared-up rates actually make the production more impressive; even a small improvement there could push the power higher. Wormeli added that tropicana’s friendly right-center alley should goose a few extra cheap shots and noted aging or park-downgraded vets (Manny Machado, Rafael Devers in Oracle, Austin Riley) are vulnerable to Caminero leap-frogging them behind Jose Ramirez in ADP.

Mike Maher pointed out that Masataka Yoshida returned to the Red Sox lineup this week but is still rostered in just 5% of Yahoo, 3% of ESPN, and 12% of CBS leagues. Maher stressed that while the ceiling is modest, Yoshida offers a bankable batting average in the .285-.300 range, everyday runs/RBI volume, and could see even steadier plate appearances once Boston inevitably thins its left-handed logjam at the trade deadline. Maher labeled Yoshida an immediate add in 12-team or deeper formats that use batting average, calling him the type of "high floor" bat contenders forget they need until September.

Kenny G said there is value backing Tampa Bay on the run line (+1.5 at roughly -140) or even on the +155 moneyline at Boston. He expects another tight affair after the Rays dropped the first two games of the series by a single run apiece. Kenny trusts Shane Baz more than the market: 8-4, 4.34 ERA with only three earned allowed over six innings in Detroit his last time out and a respectable 5.1-IP, 3-ER line in his earlier meeting with Boston. Tampa, still 2nd in batting average and 7th in runs, has sputtered to 4-3-7-2-1 runs in its last five; Kenny anticipates positive regression. On the other side, Garrett Crochet owns a shiny 2.39 ERA but has been a bit hittable lately (11 hits in his last 10 innings) and has never faced Tampa—historically a tough assignment for first-time lefties. With Boston’s eight-game winning streak inflating a ‑190 price and Tampa’s bullpen (3.96 ERA) nearly matching Boston’s (3.47), Kenny prefers grabbing the run and a half in what he projects as another one-run game.

Matt Perrault said bettors should back Garrett Crochet and the surging Red Sox on the -1.5 run line at +115 against the Rays. Boston has won eight straight, and every Crochet victory since June has cashed the run line (final scores of 6-4, 13-6, 3-1, 2-1, 10-7, 3-1). The left-hander owns a 2.79 ERA with a .230 opponent average at Fenway and should get a longer leash in his final start before the All-Star break. Perrault acknowledged Shane Baz’s solid 3.10 road ERA, but Tampa has lost the last two Baz outings 5-1 and 4-3. Given Boston’s current form and Crochet’s run-line profile, Perrault is willing to take the plus money.

Harrelson advised playing Yandy Diaz under 1.5 total bases. Diaz has stayed below this number in five straight games and seven of his last ten, logging only singles while averaging 4.4 plate appearances in that span. Historically he struggles in the matchup: 14 unders in his last 20 meetings with Boston. On the season he has failed to clear 1.5 bases in 51 of 89 games (57%). Diaz’s splits versus left-handed pitching are a major concern—his batting average drops from .287 overall to .225 against southpaws, the opposite of Bellinger’s profile. Tonight he faces a lefty he is 0-for-1 against career-wise, and he has also gone under in five straight road games, averaging just 0.8 total bases on the road during that streak.

Cash Out Sports Picks recommended the Red Sox moneyline. Boston enters on a seven-game heater while Tampa Bay has dropped eight of eleven. All-Star southpaw Branden Crochet leads MLB in innings and strikeouts and draws a Rays lineup that has gone cold versus left-handed pitching. Although Shane Baz has been solid, the surrounding Tampa offense has sputtered, and Crochet’s dominance coupled with Fenway’s rocking atmosphere gives Boston a decided edge. With momentum and matchup in their favor, the tout urged bettors to back the Sox.

Welsh backed Tampa Bay on the first-five money line largely as a bet against Walker Buehler, who owns an ERA north of six since returning. He noted the Red Sox have been swinging it well but trusts Taj Bradley to hold the line while Buehler continues to get hit, giving the Rays the edge through five.

Eric Lindquist said he will fire on Jonathan Aranda’s home-run prop at any number better than +350 against Boston rookie Hunter Dobbins. Dobbins sports just a 17.3 % strikeout rate and a 42.8 % hard-hit rate, metrics Lindy called "BP fastballs for lefty pull power," which fits Aranda’s 44-degree pull-side launch profile. Lindquist missed the early +600 that briefly popped, but he still sees value because Fenway’s short right-field porch pairs with Dobbins’ mediocre velo. With Junior Caminero and Brandon Lowe providing lineup protection, Lindquist expects Aranda to see at least one juicy fastball per plate appearance and prefers a quarter-unit sprinkle on the long-ball market rather than laying full units on Rays moneylines.

Brad Francis said to back the Rays on the money line at Fenway. He noted Tampa Bay has won seven straight games as a road favorite in Boston and now hands the ball to ace Drew Rasmussen. Francis believes Rasmussen’s presence plus the recent head-to-head trend outweighs any home-field edge the Red Sox might have.

Drew Martin urged bettors to grab Tampa Bay at -115 in Fenway. He explained that Drew Rasmussen will serve as the opener with 25-year-old fire-baller Joe Boyle handling bulk innings, a combo that has logged 10 scoreless frames and 14 strikeouts in Boyle’s two previous tandem appearances. Boston still has no listed starter and may default to a mediocre bullpen, which Martin called a clear disadvantage. He also downplayed the Red Sox’s six-game winning streak, noting it came against last-place Washington and Colorado, while Tampa enters with 50 wins and the deeper staff. Given the uncertain Boston pitching plan, bullpen gap, and class jump for the Sox, Martin believes the Rays should be a larger favorite and labeled them his best bet of the card.

Joey Pisapia delivered a "hot take," saying Junior Caminero is "our next Miguel Cabrera"—essentially slotting the 20-year-old somewhere between Manny Machado and peak Miggy in long-term value. While the conversation was light on granular stats, Pisapia’s conviction stemmed from Caminero’s precocious power (already 28 career MiLB homers above High-A before turning 21), advanced opposite-field approach, and the fact that MLB marketing wants young sluggers in marquee events like the Home Run Derby. Pisapia urged dynasty managers to treat Caminero as a future cornerstone and acquire him now, before the Rays inevitably clear a path to everyday at-bats.

Pisapia highlighted Romy Gonzalez as an under-the-radar bench piece because he qualifies across the entire infield and is batting .338 with four steals. Over the last week he’s hitting .400+ and, per Welsh, owns a ridiculous 15% barrel rate, 60% hard-hit rate, and .300+ xBA while striking out minimally. He is hammering lefties (.400 AVG, every homer), making him an ideal short-side platoon partner in daily formats—pair him with Wilyer Abreu or Masataka Yoshida for full coverage. If Boston moves Jarren Duran or others at the deadline, even more at-bats could open up. Deep-league managers should stash him now.

Cash Out Sports Picks backed the Red Sox on the money line in Thursday’s opener. The tout leaned on Walker Bueller’s extreme home/road splits—3.93 ERA in seven Fenway starts versus an ugly 8.66 on the road—and the fact he is already 2-0 against Tampa this season. Boston’s offense is elite at home, carrying a .268 average (2nd in the AL) and 255 runs scored (tied for most in the league). Meanwhile, Rays starter Taj Bradley is just 2-3 with a 4.04 ERA away from Tropicana, and Tampa has gone 3-6 across its last three road series. Boston has also taken five of the last seven head-to-head meetings, so the tout sees momentum and matchup advantages pointing squarely to the Sox.

B Wade said to take Jarren Duran over 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs. He pointed to Boston’s ridiculous form – 9.3 runs per game across their last six contests against Washington and Colorado – and the fact the red-hot Duran is batting leadoff, giving him maximum plate appearances. Duran has cashed this line in seven of his past ten games and is riding a roughly 10-game hit streak. Versus right-handers he owns a .289 average, and he has handled Thursday’s starter Taj Bradley in limited action (4-for-11, .364). Bradley’s road ERA is pushing 5.00, with three-plus runs allowed in every away start outside of a brief June blip, so Wade expects Boston’s lineup to keep rolling and Duran to rack up counting stats again.

It's The Final Round said Chandler Simpson is the ideal left-handed bat to attack Walker Buehler on Thursday. Buehler is allowing a .333 average to lefties and has been hit hard in four straight starts after two decent outings against Tampa earlier in the season. Simpson has a .304 average versus right-handed pitching, is 10-for-25 (.400) over the past week, and owns hits in 18 of his last 20 games. Even better for single props, 17 of those hits were singles, including an active 11-game single streak. The tout framed Simpson strictly as a "get-a-hit" or "single" play that can anchor a hit parlay, with a potential stolen-base sprinkle for bettors hunting a bigger price.

Brad Francis took Taj Bradley over 2.5 earned runs allowed. He called Bradley "super volatile" and highlighted a 3-of-4 stretch of giving up at least three runs. Fenway’s hitter-friendly dimensions combined with a "red-hot" Red Sox lineup make the right-hander vulnerable again. Francis therefore expects Bradley to get "smacked up," clearing the 2.5 ER line for the fourth time in five outings.

Bill Harrelson said he is taking Jarren Duran for more than 1.5 total bases on Thursday in Tampa Bay. Duran has cleared this line in five of his last six contests, averaging 3.3 total bases, and just posted 5- and 6-base games at Coors. Against the Rays he has gone over in four of the last five meetings, torching them twice this season for four-base nights. FanDuel is hanging the over at –135, a price Harrelson called "insanity" and a clear indicator books expect another big night. Duran owns a .364 average with multiple extra-base hits in 12 plate appearances versus Taj Bradley, and his slash line jumps from .259 overall to .285 against right-handers. With about four projected plate appearances in the leadoff spot and every major book shaded to the over, Harrelson labeled the play one of his favorite PrizePicks cards of the day.