Kenny G said he is "leaning pretty hard" toward the Reds at -125 on Friday night. His conviction comes from the pitching matchup: Brady Singer is coming off 7⅓ innings of one-run ball against Tampa Bay and has posted four quality outings in his last five starts, whereas Bryce Elder carries a 6.29 ERA and was "dismantled" by Texas in his most recent appearance. Kenny pointed out that Atlanta’s bullpen ERA has ballooned to 4.28 and its offense ranks 24th in runs scored and 21st in batting average. By contrast the Reds own an 11th-place ranking in runs, are 32-24 at home, remain very much alive in the NL Wild Card race, and just hung 11 runs in regulation on Thursday. Although Great American Ball Park has produced an MLB-best 34-17-5 under record for Cincinnati home games, Kenny is avoiding the total after the 23-run explosion yesterday and is focusing on the Reds moneyline, believing Singer plus the hotter lineup gives Cincinnati clear value as a short home favorite.

Guy Boston Sports said Ke'Bryan Hayes is a strong bet to record at least one hit Friday in Atlanta-Cincinnati thanks to several converging factors. Hayes has hit safely in 7 of his past 10 and owns a 67 % success rate on this exact prop for the season (0.88 hits per game). He has also tagged the Braves in 5 of their last 6 meetings, averaging 1.33 knocks. The host highlighted Bryce Elder’s problems with right-handed bats—.322 average against, 7.58 ERA, .365 BABIP—and showed Outlier data revealing Hayes’ wOBA jumps versus Elder’s primary offerings (sinkers +24 points, sliders +95 points, changeups +44). At FanDuel the alternate 0.5-hit line sits at just –185, giving what he called “a lot of value” for the first leg of his Freaky Friday five-leg hits parlay.

Bill Harrelson advised taking Orlando Arcia under 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs. Arcia has failed to clear this number in five straight, ten straight overall, and 18 of his last 20 contests. Against the Pirates he is 0-for-3 off Andrew Heaney and has cashed the under in three consecutive and five of the last six meetings. The Braves infielder has stayed below this line in 34 of 45 games this year (76 %) and carried a 62 % under rate across 159 games last season. With only about four plate appearances projected and no recent signs of life, Harrelson expects another quiet day.

It’s The Final Round backed Elly De La Cruz to keep the sticks sizzling in Saturday’s Reds-Braves matinee. Braves right-hander Bryce Elder has been touchable, surrendering a .264 average to left-handed bats on the season and an ugly .349 mark across his last four outings, while Truist Park shows boosts to runs and homers. De La Cruz will hit from his stronger left side, where he owns a .302 season average. He is coming off a three-hit, extra-inning night that included a homer and has posted a .400 average (12-for-30) with seven RBIs over the last week. The tout’s model gives him an 85 percent chance for a hit, 55 percent for multiple knocks, and 10-12 fantasy points despite the quick turnaround. That makes De La Cruz’s over 1.5 Total Bases or Hits+Runs+RBIs props live betting angles.

B Wade recommended betting Andrew Abbott to allow fewer than 2.5 earned runs at a surprising –120 price. Abbott owns a 2.09 ERA and has topped this number only three times all season; at Great American Ball Park he has surrendered more than one run just once. He blanked Atlanta earlier this year in a 2-1 Reds win. Wade added that the Braves lineup is ‘sputtering’ with Ronald Acuna sidelined and the front office standing pat at the deadline, suggesting diminished offensive ceiling. Given Abbott’s consistency (sub-1.00 home ERA in July) and Atlanta’s current funk, Wade expects one run or fewer over six innings.

B Wade said Matt Olson is a strong over play on 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs. Olson has cleared this number in eight of ten meetings with Cincinnati since the start of last season and went 3-for-4 on it in their June series. Wade likes the "bounce-back" narrative after the Braves were shut out on Wednesday, noting Olson’s seasonal .273 average versus left-handed pitching compared with roughly .250 against righties. Although Andrew Abbott owns an 8-1 record and 2.09 ERA, Olson is 1-for-2 lifetime off him and historically punishes Reds pitching. Wade expects at least two counting stats, citing Cincinnati’s bullpen game the night before and Atlanta’s need to respond offensively.

Kenny G labeled the Reds moneyline at -160 his “lock of the day.” He argued Cincinnati owns a huge mound edge: Andrew Abbott is 8-1 with a 2.09 ERA, dominated the Rays last week (6 IP, 2 H, 1 ER) and punched out eight Braves over five shutout innings in May, while 38-year-old Carlos Carrasco is being recalled for his first MLB action since May 4 after surrendering seven earned in 6⅓ combined April/May innings. Kenny highlighted Atlanta’s 19-36 road record, sagging offense (23rd in runs, 19th in slugging) and shaky 4.13 bullpen ERA. By contrast the Reds are 32-24 at Great American Ball Park and their relief corps has trimmed its ERA to 3.83 over the last 20–30 games. With Cincinnati only three games out of a Wild Card spot and aggressively adding Zack Littell at the deadline, Kenny expects full motivation and believes the combination of Carrasco rust and a taxed Braves pen could let the Reds “pop off for 20 runs.” He is playing the Reds straight on the moneyline rather than risking the -1.5 run line.

Martin advised laying the –155 with Cincinnati because All-Star southpaw Andrew Abbott “hasn’t lost since early June” and sports a sparkling 2.00 ERA. Atlanta counters with newly acquired Carlos Carrasco, elevated from Triple-A after four minor-league wins, a spot Drew labeled a “tricky handicap” given the jump in competition. The Braves are 19-35 on the road, while the Reds are 31-24 at Great American Ball Park. Abbott already stifled Atlanta once (8 K, 0 BB, 4 H), mixing speeds to keep them off balance. A sunny 80-degree evening with an 8 mph breeze out to center could send the combined score past 9.5, but Martin’s core play is Reds moneyline, citing both the starting-pitching edge and Cincinnati’s superior home splits.

Scott Reichel locked in Reds –1.5 at +130. He likes the number because ESPN added Carlos Carrasco to the probable list, which in his eyes increases Cincinnati’s edge. Reichel believes the price will “plummet,” especially if Atlanta moves pieces at the deadline, so he urged listeners to grab the run-line early while the plus-money tag is still available.

For his dog, Rockford took Cincinnati at +130, noting that left-hander Andrew Abbott has been “a beast at home” while Atlanta’s lineup has shown little life. He added that Atlanta is acting like a seller and “waving the white flag,” so he doubts where the Braves’ offense will come from. The combination of home dominance from Abbott and a shaky Braves attack made the Reds his favorite underdog.

Dylan Rockford echoed the run-line play, citing Abbott’s 4-1 record and 1.93 ERA in Cincinnati. Abbott has not allowed more than one run in four straight home outings, while Atlanta’s offense struggles on the road and against southpaws. MLB.com lists Carlos Carrasco as Thursday’s starter; Rockford noted Carrasco’s long-ball issues and the Braves’ shaky bullpen. With Cincinnati’s park boosting run production, he sees value in Reds -1.5 at +130.

In addition to the total, Reichel laid -1.5 runs at +130 behind Abbott. He called Atlanta “a joke” right now, noting the team’s .230 average versus lefties, a possible Marcell Ozuna sell-off, and a rotating cast of spot starters. With Abbott’s swing-and-miss stuff and the Reds’ hitter-friendly park, Reichel believes Cincinnati can win comfortably and the plus money makes the run line attractive.

Scott Reichel advised bettors to stay away from Cincinnati’s ‘Make the Playoffs’ futures despite the Hayes deal. He argued the Reds remain three games behind San Diego and have virtually no path to jump Philadelphia or Chicago in the Wild Card race. Reichel also cited a roster he views as "lukewarm" in the outfield and middle infield plus an unproven pitching staff. His bottom-line call: the Reds will fall short, so a ‘No’ ticket on their postseason market still carries value.

Scott Reichel said Ke'Bryan Hayes could finally become a league-average hitter now that he is reportedly headed to Cincinnati. Reichel pointed to Great American Ball Park’s friendlier dimensions and the Reds’ developmental staff, noting that a change in scenery has revived other stalled bats (he mentioned Andrew Vaughn as a recent example). Because Hayes already offers elite defense at third, Reichel believes even modest offensive improvement locks him into everyday at-bats and turns him into an undervalued corner-infield option for season-long fantasy managers looking for runs and speed at a thin position.

Scott Reichel warned fantasy managers not to overreact to Ke'Bryan Hayes landing in Cincinnati. Reichel praised Hayes as an elite, possibly platinum-glove third baseman but emphasized the bat remains "average to slightly below average," citing a .236 average with only two homers and 36 RBIs. Even in Great American Ball Park, he does not see a sudden power spike; the Reds traded for glove reliability, not offense. Reichel advised leaving Hayes on waivers in mixed leagues and ignoring him in DFS until his underlying batted-ball profile improves.

Just A Bet Outside advised laying the alternate ­-1 run line with Cincinnati at –117. He framed the matchup as a classic "buyer vs. seller" spot on trade-deadline day: Atlanta is rumored to be off-loading pieces (he specifically cited Marcell Ozuna trade chatter and the season-ending Ronald Acuna injury), while Cincinnati just "added Ke’Bryan Hayes" and is hunting a Wild-Card berth. The pitching edge is massive in his view. Andrew Abbott has held opponents to two or fewer earned runs in seven of his past eight starts and owns a sparkling 1.93 ERA/1.21 WHIP at homer-friendly Great American Ball Park, backed by 91st-percentile hard-hit suppression and 79th-percentile average exit velocity. Forty-year-old Carlos Carrasco, recalled only because Atlanta’s rotation is in shambles, has been shelled everywhere: a 9.26 road ERA with a .377 BAA and three-plus earned runs allowed in five of eight big-league starts before a demotion in June, followed by more struggles in Triple-A. The tout expects Abbott to work deep, a rested Reds bullpen to cover the final frames, and a disengaged Braves club to offer little resistance. He prefers the –1 for push equity but is comfortable with –1.5 given the situational and pitching mismatch.

Stephen said to lay the -158 and take Cincinnati on the money-line Thursday because of a clear pitching edge. He noted that Andrew Abbott has allowed two earned runs or fewer in seven of his last eight outings, carries a 2.09 ERA on the season, and owns solid underlying skills (7.2 H/9, <1.0 HR/9, slightly above-average strikeout rate, strong command). On the other side, 38-year-old Carlos Carrasco is making his first MLB start since May 4 and joins the Braves with obvious rust concerns. Stephen called Carrasco 'Tabasco' and joked that he belongs on the old-timer tour with Rich Hill and Dallas Keuchel, adding that he expects the veteran to fade quickly and potentially lose his rotation spot. Given Abbott’s recent form and Carrasco’s long layoff, Stephen believes the Reds should be a much larger favorite, making the current -158 price a value play.

Brad Free Pick Dawgz told listeners to hit the Cincinnati Reds -1.5 run line (and even sprinkle -2.5 or -3.5) when they host Atlanta on July 31. His reasoning: 1) Atlanta is forced to start Carlos Cookie Carrasco, freshly acquired after posting a 5.91 ERA and 2-2 record with the Yankees, a pitcher Brad says he has "been fading for years" with consistent profit. 2) Great American Ballpark is one of MLB’s most hitter-friendly parks, an awful landing spot for a struggling, fly-ball right-hander making his first start for a new club. 3) The Braves will be traveling from Kansas City while the Reds stay home after facing the Dodgers, a schedule edge Brad believes matters. 4) Atlanta’s rotation is ravaged by IL stints, leading Brad to question the front office’s sanity for adding Carrasco and Eric Fetty instead of stronger arms. 5) Cincinnati counters with Andrew Abbott, whom Brad called "damn good" and a "pleasant surprise" this season. 6) Atlanta has been "ass on the road," another knock that pushes Brad toward an aggressive run-line position. Put it together and he expects the Reds to "clap" the Braves, making the standard -1.5 plus-money line his official play and recommending extended run lines for bettors who want extra juice.

Brad Free Pick Dawgz fired on the Yes-Run First Inning in Braves-Reds strictly to attack Carlos "Cookie" Carrasco. Brad called Carrasco "ass" and reminded listeners he has faded the veteran for multiple seasons with success. Carrasco opened 2025 struggling for the Yankees, was cut, and has now landed with a Braves club Brad labeled a "dumpster fire." Even though he respects Reds lefty Andrew Abbott—"the best pitcher on today’s slate"—Brad does not expect Atlanta to score early. Instead, he’s betting the Reds cash in immediately against Carrasco’s diminished stuff, poor command, and 6-plus ERA in first innings over his last 20 starts. Because only one team needs to cross the plate, Brad likes the plus-money YRFI.

Bill Harrelson recommended taking Andrew Abbott under 2.5 earned runs allowed when the left-hander faces Atlanta. Abbott has held opponents to two or fewer earned runs in eight of his last ten starts and 16 of his last 20 (80 %). Earlier this season he blanked the Braves entirely, giving up zero earned runs over six frames. For 2025 he has cleared this prop in 15 of 18 outings (83 %), and combining this year with last season yields 32 hits in 43 starts—roughly a 75 % success rate. Other books such as Fliff and Sleeper have juiced the under, reflecting market support. Abbott averages 5.2 innings per start but has been even better in Great American Ball Park, finishing under in nine of his last ten home appearances while surrendering just 1.2 earned runs per game there. Harrelson views the plus matchup, track record, and market alignment as enough to fade Atlanta’s bats at the current 2.5 line.

Cash Out Sports Picks recommended the Cincinnati Reds money line, highlighting Andrew Abbott’s 2.09 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, and 1.93 ERA over 56 home innings. Atlanta limps into town 16 games under .500 and gutted by injuries; Thursday spot-starter Carlos Carrasco has allowed 34 hits and 18 runs in his last 30 frames and carries a 9.26 road ERA with opponents batting .377. The Braves have only three wins since the All-Star break, while the Reds avoid travel and remain in the NL Wild Card hunt. Abbott’s strikeout-per-inning profile versus a struggling Atlanta offense sealed the pick.

It’s The Final Round recommended loading up on Elly De La Cruz against newly acquired Carlos Carrasco, whom Atlanta plans to start despite his not having pitched since May and skipping rehab work. Carrasco has yielded a .284 average to left-handed batters this year and could be extremely rusty. De La Cruz, hitting from his stronger left side, owns a .303 average versus righties and is scorching at .321 with nine hits over his last seven games. The channel’s AI model gives him an 80 % chance for a hit, 55 % for a run, 50 % for an RBI, a 23 % chance to leave the yard, and a 10–13 fantasy-point projection. The tout likes overs on his hit/total-bases props, fantasy-point lines, and even a small stab at the home-run market.

Eric Lindquist said Cincinnati is a must-play money-line piece on Thursday because Andrew Abbott’s metrics (33.4% hard-hit rate, 19.5° launch angle, .290 xwOBA) look like an All-Star’s while the Braves are trotting out Carlos Cookie Carrasco, whom Lindquist called “cooked.” Carrasco’s four-seamer and slider have both lost velocity, his expected slugging is north of .500, and Atlanta appears to be punting on 2025 with Ronald Acuna Jr. sidelined and stop-gap starters such as Joey Wentz and Carrasco filling the rotation. Lindquist views the Reds as a “ridiculously good” parlay anchor or straight wager at anything close to the opening price.