Houston Astros @ Minnesota Twins

Guy Boston suggests fading Matt Wallner, specifically targeting under 1.5 hits, runs, and RBIs or under 0.5 runs. His reasoning centers on Hunter Brown's fastball-heavy pitch mix, noting Wallner's weighted on-base average drops significantly against fastballs and sinkers. Although Wallner can handle cutters, Brown rarely relies on that pitch. This pitching matchup, combined with the projected low-scoring environment, leads Guy Boston to anticipate struggles for Wallner, making the unders appealing betting options.

Cash Out Sports Picks recommended backing the Houston Astros money line against the Minnesota Twins. They pointed out that despite Houston's slow start and recent struggles, including being swept by the Giants, the Astros offense shows clear signs of being due for a breakout, especially after Jordan Alvarez's strong showing on Wednesday. They noted the potential of pitcher Hunter Brown, who pitched well in his first start but lacked offensive support, and emphasized that Brown has the necessary tools to be effective against the Twins lineup. With Joe Ryan also vulnerable in afternoon starts (4.05 ERA), they expect Houston's talented offense to finally deliver, making the Astros a good play.

Guy Boston recommended betting the under on Christian Walker's 1.5 hits, runs, and RBIs prop versus the Twins. Walker has hit this under consistently so far, cashing five straight games after an initial single-game over against the Mets. Walker is averaging only 0.67 combined hits, runs, and RBIs per game this season. Last season, he only eclipsed this line in 52% of games, indicating relatively average production. Walker faces Joe Ryan today, a solid matchup despite Walker only having a single hit in three previous plate appearances. Ryan had a 3.60 ERA last year and allowed just a .229 batting average against right-handed batters. The Astros offense has struggled early this season, further supporting the under play. Guy Boston sees Walker continuing his recent struggles with limited production today, making the under at -150 odds a worthwhile consideration.

Zach Thompson tabbed Joe Ryan as his top pitching choice for the MLB DFS slate on April 3rd, citing particularly strong home performances over his career at Target Field, where Ryan posts a K/9 rate of 10.5, notably higher than his road strikeout rate. Ryan also exhibited encouraging form with a strong first start against the Cardinals, pitching five innings with five strikeouts, allowing only one run. Ryan's matchup against an Astros team that currently ranks among the league leaders in strikeout rate (54 Ks in six games) offers substantial upside, especially in a cold afternoon game in Minneapolis. Despite some inconsistency against Houston last season (eight earned runs over two starts), Thompson expects Ryan's strikeout skills to shine in this spot.

Derek Carty recommends betting the over on Joe Ryan's 5.5 strikeout total (-160 odds) as one of the day's high-value pitcher prop bets. The projection assigns Ryan a 69% chance of exceeding this number, providing +$18.18 in expected value. Ryan benefits significantly from a dominating platoon advantage against a Houston Astros lineup projected to feature eight right-handed hitters, positioning him nicely to surpass this strikeout projection.

Data Skrive recommends prop betting consideration for Harrison Bader, who leads the Twins with three homers and eight RBI over their recent contests. Despite batting only .250 over that stretch, his power surge, including three homers and consistent run production, strengthens his value to exceed RBI and total base props.

Data Skrive notes that the Twins have successfully handled the favorite role this season, winning two out of three games when favored by at least -124. The implied moneyline probabilities also favor Minnesota with a 55.4% chance to win. Meanwhile, the Astros have lost their only game this year as underdogs at odds of +104 or longer. This situational trend makes the Twins' moneyline at -124 an actionable value play.

Data Skrive points out Jose Altuve as a strong player prop bet candidate for the Astros against the Twins, highlighting his hot start on the season. Altuve is batting .391 entering the game on a six-game hitting streak. These numbers suggest excellent value betting Altuve over 0.5 hits, despite the -195 odds, especially considering his recent consistent approach at the plate.

Michael Savio expects Hunter Brown to continue his solid form after an impressive outing against the Mets, striking out seven batters across six innings with just two earned runs allowed. Brown had a rough experience in Minnesota previously, but Savio views that merely as an off-day for a typically strong pitcher. Facing the underperforming Minnesota offense hitting below .175 as a team through five games, Savio sees a prime opportunity for Brown to dominate and keep this matchup low-scoring, capitalizing effectively on the Twins' offensive struggles.

Michael Savio highlighted Twins pitcher Joe Ryan after an impressive first start in 2025, allowing only one run across five innings to St. Louis. Ryan is coming off a tremendous 2024 campaign where he recorded a standout 0.99 WHIP. Although the Astros have historically had some success against Ryan, they now possess their weakest lineup in several seasons, greatly enhancing Ryan's betting value tonight. As a result, Savio anticipates another strong showing from Ryan, leading to a low-scoring affair favoring the under bet.

Joe Pisapia identified Bailey Ober as an excellent buy-low pitching candidate due to his track record of horrific season debuts. Historically, Ober has a 12.36 ERA and 2.14 WHIP in his first start of every season. Removing these first starts shows a drastically improved career mark (3.42 ERA, 0.98 WHIP). Pisapia cited Ober's progress made in 2024 and expects a rapid rebound, urging fantasy managers to acquire Ober quickly before the opportunity window closes.

Scott Reichel tentatively recommends taking the Houston Astros money line at a slight underdog price (+102), despite acknowledging both teams have substantial offensive struggles. He emphasized the perceived value here is solely based on the probability of a coin-flip-type result, arguing that neither team is trustworthy enough to warrant laying any significant juice. Reichel advises a cautious play based purely on price rather than strong confidence, highlighting the Astros' continued struggles at the plate but feeling that the Twins don't offer a strong enough offense to justify being favored. His reasoning is purely driven by betting value on a coinflip scenario with plus money odds.

Dylan Rockford strongly prefers backing the Twins first-five innings specifically due to pitcher Joe Ryan, who looked excellent in his initial outing despite minimal run support. He argues that facing the slumping Astros lineup—offensively weak and losers of their past games—is an optimal setup for Ryan to dominate early. With clear concerns over both team's shaky bullpens, Rockford feels avoiding late-game unpredictability and centering bets around Minnesota's edge in starting pitching through the first five innings offers the best betting angle.

Drew Martin highlighted Hunter Brown and the Astros as a valuable underdog at +110 against the Twins for several reasons. Brown impressed in his first outing, striking out seven hitters in six innings pitched and allowing just two earned runs, despite taking a loss. His velocity topped 98-99 mph. Conversely, Twins' pitcher Joe Ryan struggled significantly against Houston hitters last season, allowing eight earned runs across 10 innings pitched. Drew sees Houston hitters having familiarity as a significant advantage. Despite both lineups ranking bottom five in team OPS early in 2025 and unfavorable travel conditions for Houston, Drew remains confident Hunter Brown's superior talent gives the Astros a clear pitching edge to win as an underdog.

It's The Final Round identified Yordan Alvarez as an intriguing candidate in home run betting markets. Despite recent disappointments last year and a quiet beginning to this season, Alvarez's historical matchup yields notable power potential, with three of his four hits against the opposing pitcher going for home runs. Though Alvarez did not produce results recently when featured, he's still under consideration due to his demonstrated long-ball upside. It's The Final Round suggested Alvarez might appear as a compelling pick in upcoming home run-centric betting markets.