Greg Peterson recommended taking the Mariners –1½ at +125 or better and leaning Under 7½. He highlighted Bryce Miller’s stark splits: a 2.73 ERA and sub-0.30 HR/9 at T-Mobile Park versus a 4.55 ERA and 1.3 HR/9 on the road. While Max Meyer has dazzled (sub-2.25 ERA, 12.0 K/9, 2.1 BB/9), Peterson does not trust Miami’s bullpen of Anthony Bender, Anthony Vizcaino and a dinged-up George Soriano to protect leads. Seattle’s bridge to lockdown closer Andres Munoz has improved thanks to Gabe Speier’s sub-1.00 ERA and Carlos Vargas’ emergence despite the loss of Gregory Santos. Offensively, Cal Raleigh already owns nine homers and Julio Rodriguez, Randy Arozarena and Luke Raley supply enough power even when batting averages lag. The Marlins put the ball in play but lack thump—Matt Mervis is their only hitter with more than seven homers and regulars like Otto Lopez and Paul DeJong carry sub-.220 OBPs. Peterson made the total 7.4, so the market 7½ is playable to the Under, and priced Seattle –146 on the run line, making anything in plus money worth a shot.

The tout preferred the full-game UNDER, noting Miami has cashed two unders in its last three and averages only 4.56 runs per game (4.67 last three). Seattle sits at 4.50 runs per game, owns a 7-5-2 under record at home, and posts just a .228 mark versus righties. Both starters enter on three-run, three-start form streaks, and T-Mobile’s marine layer plus typical Sunday line-up rest should further mute bats. Cash Out Sports Picks expects both clubs to lean on rested bullpens and sees a classic getaway-day grind rather than fireworks.

Cash Out Sports Picks backed the Marlins on the money-line, arguing Miami’s contact-heavy lineup is built to punish right-handers (.246 AVG vs RHP) while Bryce Miller is stumbling—nine earned over his last four starts and seven total runs allowed in his two previous looks at Miami. Conversely, Marlins right-hander Edward Cabrera (referred to as “Mayor” in the clip) has surrendered only three runs in his last three outings and just three total in two road starts. Seattle has produced a weak .228 average against right-handed pitching and, outside of a 14-run outburst, has been wildly inconsistent. With Cabrera in form and T-Mobile Park depressing offense, the tout labeled Miami the value side despite Seattle’s home-field juice.

JD Bets said the 7.5 total in Mariners-Marlins is too low and is playing the over. His core angle is fading Miami rookie Logan Evans, who is making his season debut and therefore fits JD’s long-standing rule of targeting first-start jitters. Evans has no 2024 MLB data, which JD views as a red flag. On the other side Max Meyer owns 41 strikeouts but remains, in JD’s words, a “pointless pitcher” who can be scored on. Seattle’s offense just hung a 10-spot earlier in the series and, according to JD’s spreadsheet, continues to grade out as a top-10 unit in hard-hit rate. Because Miami’s lineup offers little protection for its shaky staff, he expects both bullpens to get early work and for the total to sail past 7.5.

Data Skrive projected a 5-4 score and advised betting Over 7.5. Recent trends line up: seven of Seattle’s last 10 games have cleared the posted total and the club is averaging 6.6 runs with 19 homers in that span. Miami’s pitching staff has a 6.55 ERA over its past 10 contests, a big reason Marlins totals have also gone Over in seven of the last 10. Both lineups make plenty of hard contact (Seattle’s ISO in that stretch sits north of .200) and the windy conditions forecasted at T-Mobile Park should aid carry. With both bullpens working heavy workloads the past week, the model’s nine–run expectation leaves a healthy cushion above the 7.5 posted total.

Kingpin Staff endorsed Seattle at ‑160 over Miami. Bryce Miller has trimmed his walk rate from 8.1% to 5.6% year-over-year and enters with a 2.95 ERA. Rookie Max Meyer, meanwhile, has a 1.38 WHIP and has surrendered four homers in 17 innings. T-Mobile Park suppresses runs (park factor 0.86), and Seattle’s offense, led by Eugenio Suarez and Ty France, owns a 113 wRC+ at home versus right-handers, compared to Miami’s league-worst 74. Seattle’s bullpen (3.02 ERA) gives them a clear late-inning advantage.

Data Skrive recommended laying the -152 moneyline with Seattle. Their model still gives the Mariners a 58% win probability even after accounting for the short price and projects a 5-4 final. Seattle has already been favored 16 times this season and cashed nine of those (56.2%). When the number has been -152 or shorter they are 4-3. Over the last 10 games the M’s are 7-3 straight-up, averaging 6.6 runs while launching 19 homers and carrying a 3.52 ERA. Miami, by contrast, owns a 6.55 ERA during the same stretch and has dropped six of its last 10 as an underdog. The combination of Seattle’s surging offense, trustworthy bullpen metrics, and Miami’s shaky pitching makes the Mariners worth backing even at the current price.

Peterson laid –1.5 with Seattle at +147 (priced –123 in his model). Prospect Logan Evans debuts with a minor-league track record of elite homer suppression (0.4 HR/9). He opposes Max Meyer, impressive (2.10 ERA, 12.3 K/9) but historically gopher-ball prone (1.8 HR/9). Miami’s bullpen owns a 4.19 ERA (19th), while Seattle’s late-inning group sits top-10. The handicap banks on Evans keeping the ball in the yard and the Mariners pen slamming the door in a multi-run win.

Peterson made Seattle –242 on the money line and was willing to lay up to –117 on the -1.5 run line (currently –105) while also playing the Under 7.5 after modeling the game at 7.4. Luis Castillo has allowed only four runs in 17 home innings and benefits from T-Mobile Park’s power-suppressing environment as his swing-and-miss rate dips slightly. The visiting Marlins bring little thunder—Matt Mervis is their lone hitter with more than seven homers, and Peterson doubts Miami will "do their part" for the total despite on-base skills from Xavier Edwards and a newly promoted Augustin Ramirez. Prospect Connor Gillespie flashes eight K/9 stuff but owns a 6.75 ERA and a 1.5 HR/9; the matchup versus Julio Rodriguez, Cal Raleigh (league-leading nine bombs) and red-hot J.P. Crawford could get hairy the second time through. Seattle’s bullpen is league-average behind elite closer Andres Munoz, but Miami’s relief unit (Anthony Bender, Calvin Faucher, A.J. Puk now closing) is a genuine liability, giving the M’s a late-inning edge that makes the run line attractive. Because T-Mobile plays as the majors’ most run-suppressive park and Castillo rarely beats himself, Peterson sees a 4-1 or 5-2 type finish and is happy to pair a short run-line price with the full-game Under.

Peterson noted that Miami has quietly become one of the premier over teams in baseball and said bettors should keep targeting high totals when the Fish are on the card. After Friday’s 8-4 win in Seattle, the Marlins are 16-9-2 to the over. The lineup is finally showing gap-to-gap power—AC Sanchez and Augustin Ramirez each homered off Casey Lawrence—and their defense remains shaky, inflating run environments (Seattle’s four-run inning was aided by a Dylan Moore throwing error). On the mound, the back half of the rotation and middle relief have been gas cans; Lorenzo Quintana’s scheduled Saturday start comes with a 6.42 xERA, and the bullpen’s 1.58 WHIP ranks 28th. Because totals are still being dealt at 8–8.5 in a year where the average Marlins game has produced 10.1 runs, Peterson advised continuing to play Miami overs until books adjust into the 9.5–10 range.

He officially played the OVER because both bullpens are leaking oil—Seattle’s relievers hold a 4.72 ERA the last ten days and Miami’s sit at 4.06. The Mariners’ right-hand-mashing lineup (132 wRC+ vs RHP recently) gets Gillispie, while the Marlins still possess enough pop to exploit Seattle’s shaky middle relief. Even in a park that suppresses homers, consistent traffic and extra-base hits should push this one past the posted number by the seventh inning.

The tout leaned to Seattle on the money-line because Luis Castillo has been nails at T-Mobile Park—just four earned over 17 home innings with a 21-to-6 K/BB. Miami counters with Connor Gillispie, who was tagged for four earned on seven hits in his last start and now faces a Mariners lineup that owns a .761 OPS and 132 wRC+ versus right-handers in the last ten days. Seattle hitters Dylan Moore (.881 OPS), Cal Raleigh (.870) and a scorching JP Crawford (.368/.450/.474 last 38 AB) give Castillo enough run support to justify laying the price.

Scott Reichel fired on Miami at +185, arguing Seattle is wildly overpriced behind an out-of-sorts Luis Castillo. Castillo’s 4.44 ERA is backed by a 1.38 WHIP and three separate innings of 3+ runs in April, and his fastball velo is down nearly 1 mph. While rookie Patrick Gillespie has been ugly (6.75 ERA), Reichel trusts a Marlins bullpen that sports a 3.12 ERA over the last two weeks to bail him out if he falters early. He also reminded listeners that Seattle’s 8-5 home record was built against Oakland and Kansas City; their offense remains bottom-10 in OPS at T-Mobile Park. With the Mariners laying -225 despite limited lineup punch and an erratic ace, Reichel prices the true line closer to +150 and is happy to take the Fish as a live underdog.

Mike Maher recommended scooping Agustin Ramirez in two-catcher and deeper single-catcher formats before the hype catches up. Ramirez smashed 25 homers and stole 22 bases across 126 minor-league games last season—"young J.T. Realmuto vibes," according to Maher—and his 112-mph max EV in Double-A shows the raw power is real. Miami’s lineup is thin, so Maher believes Ramirez can DH on off days and stay in the batting order even when not catching. In his first two major-league games he’s already swiped a bag, hinting that the steals translate. With roster rates of just 22% (Yahoo) and 5% (ESPN), Maher views Ramirez as an immediate upgrade over back-end catchers like Luis Campusano or Tyler Stephenson and a possible league-winner if the bat sticks.

Mike Maher said Sandy Alcantara is a textbook buy-low after an ugly 6.50 ERA through his first handful of outings. Alcantara’s expected ERA sits in the mid-4s, and he just logged a six-inning quality start after an early blow-up that torpedoed his surface numbers. Maher pointed out that fantasy managers are panicking—some have even asked if they should drop him—which opens a window to acquire last year’s NL Cy Young winner at a severe discount. Maher suggested sending expendable bats such as Nick Castellanos, Paul Goldschmidt, Zach Neto, Michael Busch, or Jake Burger if your roster is pitching-rich and batting-poor. He stressed that Alcantara should not be dropped outside of the very shallowest leagues and believes a mid-season rebound is likely once the Marlins’ defense and Alcantara’s strand rate normalize.

For a plus-money player prop, Kingpin circled Julio Rodriguez to hit a home run against Miami spot-starter Connor Gillispie. Gillispie compiled a 5.18 ERA and 1.6 HR/9 in Triple-A before a surprise call-up, and his sinker tops out at 92 mph—right in Rodriguez’s wheelhouse (J-Rod owns a .342 ISO versus pitches 93 mph and below). Seattle’s star outfielder has heated up with three bombs and a .667 SLG in his last seven games, and T-Mobile Park’s humidity forecast (60%) typically adds a bit of carry. With Luis Castillo expected to give the Mariners a lead, Rodriguez should see a full four to five plate appearances. Kingpin noted that sportsbooks were hanging +365 on the HR prop Friday night and expects that number to close closer to +320, urging bettors to grab the favorable price early.

Halterman called Agustin Ramirez a must-add in any league where you can use catcher speed. The 22-year-old debuted Monday and opened 5-for-6 with three doubles, a steal, and even got caught once—evidence he’s willing to run. Ramirez swiped 22 bags last year and is already on pace to lead all catchers (only J.T. Realmuto has reached double-digit steals in the past decade). He pairs speed with legit bat skills: .267 average, 19 % K-rate, 11 % BB-rate, and 25 homers in Double-A. Halterman expects him to beat out Nick Fortes, Liam Hicks, and Rob Brantly for regular work; if that happens Ramirez could provide rare category juice at the thinnest fantasy position, though his value could dip back to two-catcher formats once Fortes returns.

Savio endorsed Seattle ‑1.5 at ‑120, an angle he rarely trusts with the light-hitting Mariners, because the pitching matchup is lopsided. Logan Gilbert (1-1, 2.63 ERA) has evolved from top prospect to bona-fide ace and will be facing Miami for the first time, giving him a scouting edge plus the benefit of T-Mobile Park. Savio projects the Marlins to scratch out no more than one run. Meanwhile, Miami sends Cal Quantrill (1-2, 8.31 ERA, 2.08 WHIP) to the hill. Quantrill has been shelled all April and may be pitching for his rotation spot; Savio expects another meltdown that could push him to the minors. With Seattle’s bats finally warming up, Savio is comfortable betting the M’s to win by multiple runs.

In his rapid-fire list of hot batter matchups, It's The Final Round highlighted Julio Rodriguez versus Cal Quantrill. Rodriguez is 6-for-11 with two homers (.545 AVG) off Quantrill and has recorded a hit in six of his last seven games, meeting his criteria of a .300+ BvP and current hot streak. He advised considering J-Rod for simple hit props or as a parlay piece.

Ceraulo flagged Logan Gilbert’s outs-recorded prop Over 18.5 at +135 as a live bet. Gilbert has logged at least seven strikeouts in all five starts and owns a pitch-efficient 1.04 WHIP, suggesting he can clear 6⅓ innings if manager Scott Servais lets him push past the sixth. The Marlins have the NL’s worst wRC+ (78) and rank 27th in walk rate, so they’re unlikely to work deep counts. Miami’s lineup also has the fifth-highest chase rate against sliders and splitters—two pitches Gilbert uses a combined 46 %. With the Mariners entering as solid home favorites and Seattle’s bullpen throwing 5⅓ high-leverage innings the night before, Ceraulo expects a long leash for Gilbert, making the plus-money number to eclipse 18.5 outs attractive.

Chris Welsh said Sandy Alcantara remains a sneaky buy-low target even after posting an ERA north of six. In Wednesday’s start the right-hander’s velocity ticked up across the board, he leaned on his money-making change-up nearly 50 % of the time, hit the optimal 40 % zone rate, and effectively buried sinkers while peppering four-seamers for strikes. Welsh believes Alcantara is still shaking off post-TJ rust, but the stuff looked close to vintage. He also expects Miami—currently in full rebuild mode—to trade Alcantara, giving him a shot at wins on a contender. All signs point to improved ratios over the next month, so Welsh urged listeners to float offers now while the surface stats scare off casual managers.

Kyle Purviance explained why he will bypass Logan Gilbert’s standard strike-out prop (projected at 8+ Ks) and instead sprinkle the ALT 10-plus market if books hang it around +360. Gilbert faces a Marlins lineup that owns the sixth-highest strike-out rate versus right-handed pitching (26.8 %) but books have adjusted, routinely pricing his 8-plus line at –105 to –120. Purviance refuses to lay chalk on such a high bar, citing umpire randomness—he lost three K’s on blown third-strike calls in MacKenzie Gore’s last start—as well as Seattle’s willingness to lift starters if they log a stressful inning early. By hunting the 10-plus ladder at 3.5-to-1 or better, he maximizes return while accepting the inherent volatility, arguing that if Gilbert is locked in, he can eclipse double-digit punch-outs for the third time in nine home outings.

Jason Bevilacqua advised grabbing the Marlins +1.5 at +105, explaining that Dimers’ simulations give Miami a 52.1% probability of covering—good for a 3.4% expected-value edge. He emphasized that the recommendation is purely numbers-driven, generated after running thousands of game simulations and comparing the projected line to current odds at BetMGM.

Bevilacqua’s model also shows value on the Marlins outright, recommending a +225 moneyline play with a 33.7% win probability—translating to a 3.2% edge versus FanDuel’s price. Although the probability is low, the plus odds make it a profitable long-shot per Dimers’ expected-value calculations generated from thousands of automated simulations.