Cooper advised fading Logan Webb in GPPs despite the right‑hander carrying the top mean projection. Webb is expected to be 35% owned but appears in only 19% of SimLabs optimals, producing a glaring negative leverage score. At $10k Cooper expects an 18‑to‑20‑point outing—fine for cash but unlikely to win tournaments when pitchers like Freddy Peralta can outscore him by 10+ points. Webb’s strikeout upside is limited compared to similarly priced options, making the chalky safety net a poor risk‑reward play.

Jordan Cooper said Freddy Peralta is the one arm on Wednesday’s slate that can realistically pop for 30‑plus DraftKings points. SimLabs gives Peralta a slate‑best 29% optimal rate while his projected ownership sits at just 27%, a level Cooper called "not over‑owned" and one he would be comfortable pushing to 35% of lineups. At $9,800—only $200 more than Logan Webb—Peralta offers a superior strikeout ceiling against a Giants lineup that has struggled versus right‑handed power pitching. Cooper framed Peralta as the priority tournament spend‑up because he combines ceiling, reasonable ownership, and only modest opportunity cost on a night where most other pitchers project for mid‑teens fantasy totals.

Guy Boston suggested playing Sal Frelick UNDER 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs, even though the young outfielder shows strong on‑base skills. The handicap flows from Boston’s expectation of a low‑scoring affair against Logan Webb, whose heavy sinker/slider mix generates grounders and suppresses slugging—the exact profile that has limited Frelick to a .340 slugging percentage versus right‑handers. With the game total already depressed and Webb likely to work deep, Frelick may see only two realistic scoring opportunities before San Francisco’s superior bullpen takes over. Boston acknowledged the prop is juiced but still finds value because scoring chance volume will be scarce across the board.

The same analyst hit the under, pointing out that four of Freddy Peralta’s five starts and three of Logan Webb’s last four have finished below the total. Both pitchers keep the ball in the yard—Peralta averages 6+ K per start, Webb excels at weak contact—and both offenses are batting under .240 with poor plate discipline. Milwaukee has cashed four unders in its last five, San Francisco three in its last four, aligning with the statistical profile of a 4‑3 or 3‑2 type contest.

Cash Out Sports Picks rode the Giants money line because San Francisco’s offense sits top‑five in runs per game and the team has gone 5‑0 in every previous Game 3 of a series this season. He trusts Logan Webb’s reliability—six to seven strong innings with minimal hard contact—far more than Milwaukee hitters that chase outside the zone and own one of the league’s worst homer and walk‑allowed pitching profiles. The tout downplayed the Brewers’ eight‑run eruption versus Jordan Hicks, calling Hicks combustible, whereas Webb rarely melts down and the Giants bullpen is expected to rebound. Those factors make San Francisco the play to tilt the series.

Kingpin Staff backed San Francisco with Logan Webb on the hill. Webb sports a 62% ground‑ball rate and 2.40 ERA, thriving in Oracle Park’s pitcher‑friendly confines. Milwaukee erupted for 11 runs yesterday but now draws the park’s marine layer plus a starter they managed only two earned runs off in their last meeting. The Giants’ rested high‑leverage trio (Rogers, Hicks, Doval) gives them a late‑inning leverage edge over a Brewers pen that threw 4.2 frames Tuesday.

Even while picking the Giants, Kingpin Staff played Freddy Peralta over 7.5 strikeouts. Peralta’s 34% strikeout rate is fourth‑best among qualifiers, and the Giants whiff 26% of the time versus right‑handed four‑seamers and sliders—the two pitches Peralta throws 81% of the time. Cool Bay Area temps should allow him to work deep; projections have him for 104 pitches and 8‑9 Ks.

Eric Lindquist liked Christian Yelich OVER 1.5 total bases at plus money in San Francisco. Oracle Park’s spacious gaps amplify Yelich’s gap‑to‑gap profile (51% hard‑hit, 2.2° launch angle) even if the ball doesn’t leave the yard. Opposing starter Jordan Hicks is scuffling, giving up a .438 expected slugging, so Lindquist expects Yelich—already showing healthier back mechanics and four homers—to produce at least a pair of bases via doubles or multiple knocks.

Cash Out Sports Picks played the full‑game Under in Brewers–Giants, arguing that neither lineup is equipped to push this total north. Jose Quintana brings a 0.71 ERA and 0.87 WHIP into Oracle Park and faces a Giants club batting just .224 overall and .212 versus left‑handed pitching. San Francisco has scratched out only 11 runs across its last four games. On the Milwaukee side, Jordan Hicks’ stamina issues should be mitigated by a Giants bullpen that ranks 2nd in ERA (2.10) and WHIP. Even with Quintana dealing, the Brewers are hardly an offensive juggernaut—outside of Sunday’s 14‑run outlier, they have not exceeded five runs in any of their previous four contests and have cashed the Under in four of those five. Both clubs trend toward low totals (Giants Under in two of three), and the tout expects another quiet night at the plate.

The tout leaned to Milwaukee, citing a stark starting‑pitching mismatch. Jose Quintana has a microscopic 0.71 ERA and 0.87 WHIP through 12.2 innings and draws a Giants lineup batting .224 and scuffling versus lefties. San Francisco counters with Jordan Hicks, whose transition from reliever to starter has produced a 6.04 ERA and 1.39 WHIP; his April line is even worse (8.27 ERA over 16.1 innings). Hicks often burns out early, forcing a middling bullpen to cover bulk frames. Milwaukee enters having won four of five while the Giants have dropped three of four and scored just 11 total runs in that stretch. With the Brewers chasing another NL Central crown, the tout sees clear value on their money line.

Martin pounced on Milwaukee at +120 because Jordan Hicks looks broken. The Giants righty has issued seven walks and surrendered 12 earned runs in his last two outings, hinting at either injury or mechanical woes. Jose Quintana counters with a 2‑0 record and a sub‑1.00 ERA through two starts, giving the Brew Crew a clear mound edge. Even though San Francisco sits 14‑8, Martin believes the better current form plus the plus price makes Milwaukee the play, provided Quintana is listed.

Savio recommended Brewers +115, citing Jose Quintana’s pristine start (2‑0, 0.71 ERA, 0.87 WHIP) and a friendly setting at Oracle Park. Quintana silenced both the Diamondbacks and Tigers and now gets another run‑suppressed venue against a Giants offense ranked top‑6 in scoring but far less potent at home. The tout acknowledged San Francisco tagged Quintana in Yankee Stadium last season but stressed that was a hitter’s park and Quintana looks sharper in 2025. Meanwhile Jordan Hicks (1‑2, 6.04 ERA, 1.39 WHIP) has not adjusted to San Francisco, carrying over last year’s 4.10 ERA struggles. Savio expects Milwaukee’s bats— fresh off a power‑laden series in Oakland— to jump Hicks early, allowing Quintana and even a shaky bullpen to protect a lead.

Peterson played Giants -125 (numbers say -136) and Over 7.5 (numbers say 8.1). Jose Quintana’s 0.71 ERA is smoke and mirrors with a 3.82 FIP and an anemic 4.3 K/9; he’s supported by a Brewers bullpen that sits 26th with a 5.14 ERA. Jordan Hicks owns a 6.04 ERA but a 4.24 FIP and hands the ball to a Giants relief corps second‑best in MLB ERA. Peterson expects Milwaukee regression, late SF leverage innings, and enough crooked numbers to push the total over.

Malcolm Bamford echoed the sentiment, slapping a ‘WTF’ label on San Francisco being a –125 favorite. He praised Quintana’s 0.75 ERA through two starts and pointed out Hicks’ spiraling control—7 free passes and a 1.62 WHIP over his last pair. Milwaukee’s bullpen (3.41 ERA) provides added confidence if Quintana gives them six strong. Given the Giants’ pedestrian 91 wRC+ versus lefties and Hicks’ durability red flags, Bamford is happy to scoop the +105 price on the better arm and form.

Scott Reichel called the Brewers moneyline a ‘wrong team favored’ spot. Jose Quintana has surrendered only one earned run through 12 innings this season and carried that late‑2024 playoff form (1.86 ERA) right into April. Jordan Hicks, meanwhile, has coughed up 15 earned across his last three starts and was inexplicably pushed to 105 pitches versus Philadelphia, a workload Reichel believes will torpedo his velocity on normal rest. Hicks still fights command (7 walks in his last two outings) and rarely eclipses five innings, exposing a Giants bullpen with a 4.98 xFIP. Even though Milwaukee is just 3‑6 on the road, Reichel thinks Quintana’s edge and a quietly top‑10 Brewers offense against right‑handers warrant backing them at +105.

Kenny G said the plus‑124 moneyline on Milwaukee is too generous given the trend lines on both sides. Robbie Ray is 3‑0 but owns a 4.19 ERA and just served up four earned over four innings in Philadelphia. The Giants have masked shaky contact numbers (22nd in average at .224 and 21st in OBP at .301) with fluky run support in Ray’s four starts (11‑9‑4‑6 runs), production Kenny expects to fall off after scoring only 4, 3 and 0 against the Angels. He trusts Quinn Priester’s early form and notes that Milwaukee’s road struggles (3‑6) are priced in, while San Francisco’s bullpen excellence (2.22 ERA, 2nd in MLB) is unlikely to matter if the bats regress. With the Brewers offering the better value side and the Giants’ offense overdue for negative regression, Kenny is willing—albeit “a little bit scared”—to back Priester and Milwaukee.

Scott Reichel scooped Milwaukee at +130, arguing the market is over‑reacting to Robbie Ray’s 3‑0 record. Ray’s underlying marks are ugly: 4.19 ERA, 12 walks in 19.1 innings, and a .279 xBA against. His last outing—four innings, five walks, four earned—showcased the command issues that have plagued him all month. Brewers rookie Quinn Priester has quietly posted a 0.90 ERA in two starts since arriving from Pittsburgh, surviving Coors Field and limiting hard contact (26 % HH). San Francisco has played only six home games and owns a neutral 4‑2 record at Oracle, while Milwaukee’s 14‑1 blowout of the Angels on Sunday suggests the bats are alive. Reichel views any plus money on Priester versus a walk‑prone Ray as a gift and hinted at a sprinkle on Brewers –1.5 (+210).

Scott Reichel doubled‑down on fading Robbie Ray and laid out two actionable angles for Monday. Ray has handed out 15 walks in just 19.1 innings (7.0 BB/9) and has already thrown multiple wild pitches, showing the same command issues that plagued him late in his Diamondbacks days. Reichel noted this will be Ray’s fifth straight start in which he’s issued at least four free passes. Because Milwaukee owns a top‑10 team walk rate, he expects the Brewers to force deep counts and create constant traffic. To protect himself from Milwaukee’s shaky bullpen, Reichel prefers the Brewers first‑five moneyline but would also consider Ray OVER 2.5 walks if the juice stays reasonable. He trusts rookie Quinn Priester—five innings in both outings with a 0.90 ERA—to keep the game level early and likes Milwaukee’s patient bats to break through before either bullpen enters.

Lonte Smith prefers the OVER 8 in Brewers‑Giants, banking on Robbie Ray’s shaky command to fuel crooked numbers. Ray has issued at least four free passes in four straight starts and has already uncorked multiple wild pitches. Smith thinks Milwaukee’s patient lineup—top‑10 in walk rate—can exploit that wildness and put early traffic on the bases. He also expects the Giants’ offense, which ranks third in runs per game and benefits from Oracle’s new right‑center cutout, to capitalize once Priester faces a lineup better than Colorado or Pittsburgh. With both bullpens middle‑of‑the‑pack (Milwaukee 14th, San Francisco 18th in reliever FIP) and moderate winds (10 mph out to left) in Monday’s forecast, Smith projects 9–10 total runs and would play the over up to 8.5.

Stephen likes Jackson Chourio props against left‑hander Robbie Ray, focusing on over 1.5 total bases (around +135) and H+R+RBI. Chourio owns a gaudy 1.000 OPS and .324 batting average versus southpaws. He has recorded at least one hit in 17 of 22 games overall and eight of nine when a lefty starts. Against left‑handed starters he has exceeded the HRR line in seven of nine games and the total bases mark in six of nine. Ray’s control issues raise the walk risk, but Stephen emphasized that San Francisco’s bullpen is missing key arms, giving Chourio extra cracks at lesser relievers. He views the rookie’s lefty‑splits and weaker bullpen backdrop as reasons to back the over on Chourio’s hitting props.

Stephen (Just a Bet Outside) doubled‑down on his earlier Milwaukee wager and added a fresh angle: the bullpen mismatch. He noted that San Francisco’s three best relievers—Tyler Rogers and Ryan Walker have pitched on back‑to‑back days, while Camilo Doval threw 30 pitches yesterday—are either unavailable or severely limited. Milwaukee, meanwhile, cruised to a 14‑1 win Sunday and needed only a three‑inning mop‑up stint from Tyler Alexander, leaving every high‑leverage arm fully rested. Stephen also pointed out the Giants’ offense has come crashing back to earth after a scorching two‑week run (now 15th in WRC+, 24th in batting average vs RHP the past 14 days). With left‑hander Robbie Ray fighting his command (13 walks in his last 14 innings) and a Brewers lineup that mashes southpaws—Jackson Chourio 1.000 OPS, Brice Turang .342 AVG, Sal Frelick .355 AVG, Rhys Hoskins .296 AVG—he believes the game should be closer to pick‑em. Getting +125 on Milwaukee’s money line is, in his words, “a mis‑price worth a half‑unit.”

Stephen said the +125 money‑line number on Milwaukee is mispriced and worth a half‑unit play. He trusts rookie Quinn Priester more than Robbie Ray right now. Priester has allowed only seven hits and one earned run through two starts, one of which came at Coors Field, and he leans heavily on off‑speed stuff that muted hard contact against both the Rockies and Tigers. Ray, on the other hand, has completely lost the zone—13 walks in his last 14 innings and 15 total hits surrendered in 19.1 IP—effectively putting a runner on base every frame. Stephen added that San Francisco’s offense is cooling off (15th in WRC+, 24th in batting average vs right‑handers over the past two weeks) after a torrid stretch, while Milwaukee’s lefty mashers such as Jackson Chourio (.324 AVG, 1.000 OPS vs LHP), Brice Turang (.342) and Sal Frelick (.355) give the Brewers a lineup advantage against the southpaw. With Ray’s control issues likely to create traffic and the Giants’ bats regressing, Stephen believes the Brewers have enough edges to justify backing them at plus money.

Mike Maher identified Jose Quintana as a pickup where innings matter. Quintana is lined up for two road starts: first in spacious Oracle Park against the free‑swinging Giants, then in St. Louis. Maher admitted the matchups are "not great, not terrible" but emphasized that streaming two starts can squeeze 10–12 extra innings and 8–10 strikeouts out of a roster spot. If your staff needs bulk or you’re chasing wins in weekly formats, Quintana is one of the few arms offering that at low acquisition cost.

Cash Out Sports Picks sided with Milwaukee on the moneyline. The Brewers erupted for 14 runs Sunday and face Robbie Ray, whose expected ERA is 5.09 with bottom‑tier barrel and walk rates despite a surface 3.86 ERA. Rookie Clint Priester owns a 0.90 ERA and .200 BAA through 10 innings. While San Francisco’s bullpen is elite (1.78 ERA), Milwaukee has taken four of the last six meetings and cashes in 9‑of‑10 unders recently, giving value to an underdog lineup in rhythm.

Cash Out Sports Picks endorsed the Over. Milwaukee just hung 14 runs and now gets Ray’s inflated 5.09 xERA, while the Brewers’ own bullpen ranks 26th at 5.14 ERA. Priester’s inexperience (three organizations by age 24) raises volatility against a Giants lineup that owns a .718 OPS versus right‑handed pitching. With San Francisco motivated after blowing a late four‑run lead Sunday, both clubs project enough offense to push the combined score past the posted total.

The computer calls it Giants 4, Brewers 3, recommending San Francisco at ‑145 plus the Under 8. Robbie Ray is 3‑0 despite a 4.19 ERA, but his 31% K‑rate profiles well in Oracle Park’s forgiving dimensions. Rookie Quinn Priester sports a shiny 0.90 ERA yet a mediocre 17% strikeout rate and faces a disciplined Giants lineup with the NL’s second‑lowest chase rate. Night games at Oracle have averaged only 7.1 total runs so far in 2025, and both bullpens are top‑10 in WPA, so the algorithm expects a tight, low‑scoring home win.

Zola recommended streaming Robbie Ray in Oracle Park versus the Brewers. Ray’s double‑digit strikeout ceiling is amplified by Milwaukee’s early‑season struggles against southpaws and by a massive park downgrade for Brewers hitters moving into San Francisco’s spacious yard. THE BAT X projection: 4.7 IP, 2.2 ER, 4.7 K, but Zola emphasized a wider range of outcomes with legitimate 8–10 K potential if Ray has his slider working.