DraftCheat eagerly endorses stacking Mets hitters against Marlins pitcher Connor Gillespie, who he views skeptically after an average first outing. Noting the Mets' expensive salaries, he believes they could dominate Gillespie and Miami's ineffective bullpen strongly and quickly. Despite their ballpark being traditionally pitcher-friendly, DraftCheat has observed increased home run frequency early this season, further boosting his endorsement of premium power hitters like Francisco Lindor, Juan Soto, Pete Alonso, Brandon Nimmo, and Mark Vientos.

Bettor Mark highlighted potential sneaky value on the Marlins as significant underdogs (+200 moneyline and plus runs), despite ultimately not betting himself. He voiced notable skepticism regarding Mets pitcher Clay Holmes, openly not being a big fan of his abilities. While Mark admitted the Mets' bats appear to be waking up, he still noted Miami's sneaky appeal to stay competitive or even upset New York. The plus-money line for Marlins offers intriguing upside versus a heavily overpriced Mets team that Mark warns might struggle unexpectedly. However, due to conflicting factors and unpredictability around Connor Gillespie's matchup, he ultimately recommend staying away, even though he clearly expressed a lean favoring Miami's side at juicy odds.

Just a Bet Outside recommended taking Mets minus one and a half runs against the Marlins, largely due to pitcher Clay Holmes. They noted Holmes' transition from reliever back to starter—highlighting his nasty pitch arsenal and a promising MLB debut allowing only two earned runs versus a strong Houston lineup despite some control issues (four walks). They believe Holmes will improve his command quickly given his previous starter experience in college. Further support comes from a mismatch against Marlins' Connor Gillespie, who has pitched just 13 MLB innings total, struggled in his first start against the weak Pirates lineup (walking four and giving up three runs), and was recently hit hard (six earned runs) by the Mets in spring training. Additionally, the Mets have a significantly deeper and stronger bullpen—another advantage cited by the tout. They emphasized that after Marlins just winning Game 2, the Mets will feel urgency to win this series, making the Mets run line (-1.5) bet particularly attractive in this scenario.

Cash Out Sports Picks recommended betting on the Marlins money line, emphasizing the pitching matchup between Sandy Alcantara and Kodi Senga. Alcantara is returning from Tommy John surgery and had a modest start in his last appearance, but the analysis expects improvement this time around. On the other hand, Mets pitcher Kodi Senga lacks regular-season experience, having made only one regular-season start last year and never pitching more than two innings during postseason appearances. These pitching concerns mean the Mets will heavily depend on their bullpen early, giving Miami and Alcantara a strong opportunity to pull off the win.

Dana Lane recommended betting the New York Mets on the run line (-1.5) at +114 against the Miami Marlins on April 1, citing multiple reasons to back the Mets. He highlighted pitcher Kodai Senga's excellent 13-7 season in 2024 with a 2.99 ERA and 211 strikeouts over 171.2 innings, and a strong spring training performance that indicates he's ready again. Lane expressed skepticism about Marlins starter Sandy Alcantara's long-term effectiveness coming off Tommy John surgery which caused him to miss 2024, noting Alcantara started losing command after three innings against a weaker Pittsburgh Pirates lineup. Lane saw the Marlins overall as one of MLB's bottom teams, with a weak bullpen and severe lack of offensive star power beyond Otto Lopez. Given the Mets' recent 10-4 blowout win over Miami and improved hitting from Pete Alonso and Starling Marte, Lane is bullish on a Mets run line play, expecting another comfortable win.

Drew Martin is backing the Marlins at +139, believing the betting market has undervalued Miami with Sandy Alcantara pitching. Alcantara was impressive on Opening Day, throwing four-plus innings and touching 100 mph with 7 strikeouts. Both teams have strong bullpens entering the game, but Alcantara's standout early performance and plus-money home dog pricing offer good betting value against an inconsistent Mets offense.

Drew Martin highlighted Pete Alonso's impressive history at LoanDepot Park, making him an excellent player prop option. Alonso boasts 12 career home runs and an OPS exceeding .900 in Miami's home stadium. Given his strong splits and past success in the stadium, he stands out as a valuable target for player props in this matchup against the Marlins.

Just a Bet Outside cautioned about Pete Alonso's difficult matchup versus elite pitcher Sandy Alcantara, highlighting Alonso's struggles going 5-for-32 with 8 strikeouts in previous at-bats against Alcantara. Given Sandy's reputation as an elite pitcher and Alonso's documented issues facing him historically, it's recommended to avoid Alonso today in fantasy or prop betting.

Brian Howard highlighted Sandy Alcantara as a possible bounce-back candidate for his second start against the Mets. Alcantara had a tough first outing against Pittsburgh, who Howard noted specifically match up well against his sinker and fastball combination. Despite this matchup disadvantage, Alcantara still looked strong overall beyond the result. Although Howard personally expressed hesitancy because the Marlins lineup gives little confidence compared to expectations, he noted Alcantara's talent and suggested considering Miami as underdogs in this spot if inclined. However, Howard emphasized caution, ultimately advising bettors to probably just avoid wagering on this game.

Bryce Hunt is confident in the No Run First Inning (NRFI) bet for the Mets and Marlins matchup on April 1st. He pointed out early-season strength of pitchers vs batters and the hitters' challenges in timing this early in the year. Miami starter Sandy Alcantara already looked excellent on opening day against Pittsburgh, generating 16 whiffs while sitting at 97 mph, solid slider usage and effectiveness early before tiring. Kodei Senga for the Mets had limited action last year due to injury but had a great second half in 2023 with his four-seam, cutter, and splitter combination ("ghost fork"). Bryce views Miami as having a weak offense, failing to score a first-inning run in their opening games despite their early 3-1 record. He expects both pitchers to handle opposing lineups easily through the first inning.

JD Bets highlighted David Peterson as quietly effective last season, putting up an impressive 10-3 record with a 2.90 ERA despite flying under the national radar. He specifically noted Miami's poor historical performance against left-handed pitching, further supporting Peterson in this matchup. JD pointed to Peterson's low earned runs average of 1.8 per game last season as highly reliable, implying Peterson should have a solid outing and mentioning he would likely place the Mets' money line as part of his betting card because of Peterson's consistency.

JD Bets recommends betting on Cal Quantrill to allow over 3.5 hits against the Mets. Quantrill averaged 5.7 hits allowed over his recent games, and despite leaving hitter-friendly Colorado, JD argues he'll struggle to show improvement on the road in Miami. Historically, Quantrill gave up fewer than three hits only in one recent start, consistently allowing four or more over an extended period. The Mets lineup presents a tougher matchup than he's faced recently, reinforcing the recommendation. JD also mentioned he would include the Mets money line in a parlay, motivated by Quantrill's struggles with hits allowed.

Guy Boston suggests targeting Miami pitcher Cal Quantrill's hits allowed total as an actionable bet against the Mets today. He highlights Quantrill's very poor numbers last season—allowing over 4.5 hits in 22 of 29 total starts and hitting the under narrowly in most of the remaining games. Guy Boston points out that the Mets have hitters like Lindor and Soto who historically hit righties effectively. Although he notes possible early-season risks due to limited pitch counts if Quantrill gets shelled early, he favors the over 3.5 hits allowed at -160 and strongly leans toward over 4.5 hits (+money odds) as a strong value option.

Scott Reichel recommended fading the Marlins' early-season success, reasoning they've benefited from facing a weak Pirates team. He argues Miami's inflated 3-1 start creates betting value on their opponent, the Mets, who faced a robust Astros team competitively over the weekend. Additionally, Scott explicitly called out pitcher Cal Quantrill's poor performances previously in Colorado. With skepticism toward Miami's bullpen and their early inflated record, Scott advises betting against them in this divisional matchup.

Scott Reichel expects a strong rebound game from the Mets, laying the -1.5 run line against the Marlins. He emphasizes the Mets just faced a difficult series against Houston where they came up short narrowly, leaving them motivated or 'pissed off.' Reichel downplays Miami's early success, asserting their wins came against a weak Pirates team, thus inflating their current standing. Scott specifically prefers Mets starter David Peterson over Marlins starter Cal Quantrill, who struggled notably last year in Colorado. Betting especially against Miami's unreliable bullpen, Scott feels confident the Mets win decisively here.

Dylan Rockford is strongly fading his own team, the Mets, citing they're significantly overpriced at around -165 against Miami. Dylan made his own number closer to around -135 and emphasized the Mets' poor offensive performance in their series against Houston. He highlighted the Marlins' success offensively in their opening series against the Pirates, despite Pittsburgh's struggles. David Peterson historically struggles against the Marlins, who bat .350 against him, making this matchup unfavorable for the Mets' starter. He acknowledged positives like Juan Soto's bat and bullpen stability but definitively advised bettors to grab the Marlins' money line value at +145.

Eric Lindquist pointed toward a favorable pitching matchup for the Mets, specifically lauding lefty David Peterson for his solid skill set. Conversely, he emphasized fading Cal Quantrill, recalling repeatedly targeting him in past Cleveland starts. Lindquist indicated a distinct talent gap here, hinting Peterson has league-average or better potential, whereas Quantrill represents vulnerability. While not directly locking in a bet, Lindquist's analysis strongly suggests considering Mets-focused bets, particularly as pitching matchups become critical early in the season.

Just a Bet Outside likes the Mets run line (-1.5) against the Marlins, citing strong regression indicators for Miami, who went 3-1 in their opening series despite each victory coming by a single run. The Marlins benefited from multiple fortunate defensive plays like throwing runners out at home and robbing home runs. Meanwhile, the Mets dropped 2 of 3 games against a strong Astros team, largely in low-scoring affairs. The Mets offense is due for a breakout, and the pitching matchup heavily favors New York, with David Peterson (2.90 ERA last season) facing Cal Quantrill, who Just a Bet Outside described as a 'Christmas tree alert'—likely to get lit up. Additionally, the Mets bullpen had rest yesterday while Miami's bullpen is notably tired from heavy usage. As a result, Just a Bet Outside sees clear value in taking Mets -1.5 runs at plus money.

Just a Bet Outside advised caution with Jorge Soler given his historically poor performance against Miles Mikolas. He is just 1-for-13 (.077) with five strikeouts, indicating Mikolas has consistently had his number. Soler is likely a DFS and betting fade in today's matchup due to past difficulties.

Bettor Mark recommended betting the Mets -1.5 runs on the run line against the Marlins, noting Miami has been lucky and playing above their true ability early this season. He praised David Peterson as one of the Mets' best pitchers from 2024, predicting a strong performance shutting down Miami's hot start. With the Mets off to an extremely poor hitting start (.136 team average), he expects a meaningful offensive breakout behind Peterson, confidently taking Mets -1.5 at minus 105 odds as one of his best bets of the day.

Bill Harrelson advises betting Pete Alonso to not score a run versus Miami based on strong statistical backing. Alonso hasn't scored yet this season, was held scoreless in eight of his last ten, and hit this under in 14 of the last 20 games overall (70%). Historically against the Marlins, Alonso hasn't scored in nine of his last thirteen matchups (69%). Against Marlins pitcher Cal Quantrill specifically, Alonso has struggled, batting only .167 across six plate appearances since 2018 with just one hit.