Along with picking Toronto to win 5-4, Data Skrive called for the total to stay under 9. The recommendation leans on contrasting offensive trends: San Diego’s lineup has cooled to 4.3 runs per game during its current 3-7 skid and carries a 4.86 team ERA that encourages a quicker hook for a taxed bullpen. Toronto’s pitching staff has quietly posted a 3.30 ERA over its last 10 contests, helping the under cash in four of those games. Even though the clubs combine for 9.8 runs per game in that stretch, the Jays’ improved run prevention and the Padres’ middling power (just 10 HR in their last 10) suggest limited crooked innings. With both teams’ implied win probabilities near 50-50, Data Skrive expects a tightly played matinee that finishes on eight runs or fewer, making the Under 9 a viable bet.

Data Skrive projected a 5-4 Toronto win despite the Jays opening as +101 underdogs. The model gave San Diego only a 51% win probability, barely better than a coin flip, yet the market is pricing them at a 54.5% implied chance at –120. Toronto, meanwhile, has thrived in this role, winning 14 of 28 underdog spots overall and 10 of 18 when listed at +101 or longer (55.6%). Recent form tilts the edge further: the Jays are 6-4 over their last 10 with a 5.5 run scoring average, 17 homers and a 3.30 staff ERA, while the Padres are just 3-7 as favorites in that span, scoring 4.3 runs per game with a bloated 4.86 ERA. With Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (.389 OBP) and Bo Bichette (.288 AVG, team-high 24 RBI) pacing a hot lineup and the bullpen holding opponents to 8.5 K/9 the last ten outings, Data Skrive argued the plus money tag on Toronto is mis-priced and worth a straight moneyline play.

Michael Savio locked in Over 9 runs at +100 for Padres-Blue Jays, citing shaky starting pitching on both sides. He pointed out that Padres right-hander Stephen Kolek carries impressive surface stats (2-1, 2.33 ERA, 1.14 WHIP) but has made only three starts, two of which came against the light-hitting Pirates and Rockies (one a complete-game gem). When Kolek faced legitimate power in Seattle last week he was tagged for five runs on eight hits and a walk in five innings, a hint that regression is coming. Toronto counters with Bowden Francis, who has cratered to 2-6 with a 5.63 ERA and 1.40 WHIP in 2025, giving up too many base-runners and long balls. Savio stressed that both lineups possess plus power and should see multiple cracks at vulnerable middle relief if the starters exit early. That hitting environment, combined with a hitter-friendly Rogers Centre, makes the even-money Over his favorite angle.

Rockford made Toronto a –130 favorite with Kevin Gausman on the mound and will fire on the Blue Jays if the market re-opens lighter than that. He admitted Gausman’s form has been volatile (six scoreless vs Cleveland but six earned in each of his last two) yet trusts the right-hander at Rogers Centre where he owns a 3.80 ERA. San Diego counters with Randy Vasquez, who has allowed only four earned in his last 17 innings but still carries shaky road splits and a history of control problems. The bigger catalyst is a punch-less Padres lineup that managed just three total runs in a weekend sweep by Seattle and now averages 3.9 per game. Rockford power-rated the total at 8.4, so he will also grab an under if books hang 8.5 or 9, but the primary play is Toronto moneyline up to –130.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is 2-for-3 (.667) off Randy Vasquez and has hits in 17 of his last 19 overall, making him another strong single-prop or parlay cog according to the host.

Fernando Tatis Jr. is 8-for-17 (.471) with two homers against Kevin Gausman and enters the game with hits in 10 of his last 11, making him a preferred target for total bases or hit props.

Luis Arraez has torched Kevin Gausman for a 7-for-9 (.778) career mark and has a hit in eight of nine, leading the host to recommend his over 1.5 hits/total bases markets.

The tout sided with the UNDER, projecting a tight 4-2 or 4-3 type outcome. Toronto has stayed under in 22 of 46 games, San Diego in 25, and neither lineup is erupting lately. Vasquez’s steady command should keep the Jays in check, while Gausman—even in poor form—typically limits blow-ups enough to avoid a track meet. Historical scoring patterns for both clubs reinforce a lower-run environment.

Cash Out Sports Picks grabbed Padres ML, fading Kevin Gausman’s brutal form. Gausman has surrendered 19 runs in his last 19.2 innings, including 17 hits over his most recent 11 IP. Conversely, rookie Vasquez has limited foes to four runs on 16 hits across 17 innings, and San Diego is 3-0 in his May starts. After being swept in Seattle the Padres’ formidable lineup is "due for a breakout," and public sentiment has started to swing their way. The tout likes the value in a classic get-right game north of the border.

Zerillo makes Toronto –110 behind Chris Bassitt’s rejuvenated arsenal and grabbed the Jays at +110, playable to even money. Bassitt has slashed his walk rate in half (4.5 %), posted a career-best 25 % strikeout rate, and coaxed chases 33 % of the time thanks to sharper slider locations. Meanwhile, San Diego’s lineup drops nearly 30 points of wRC+ against right-handers compared to lefties, and the Friars’ middle relief still ranks bottom-10 in both WHIP and xFIP. With projected pick-’em odds, Zerillo sees any plus-price as automatic value on Toronto.

Razzle labeled Dylan Cease a tournament staple. Despite Toronto’s low K% and Cease’s rocky road splits, the righty still owns a 5.5 K-prop, +130 Win odds, and slate-best strikeout stuff when he’s on. Given Monday’s thin pitching board, Razzle believes Cease has a realistic chance to post the highest raw score on the slate and is willing to live with the volatility for GPP leverage.

Razzle put Chris Bassitt in his short list despite the Padres’ right-handed thump. Bassitt’s strikeout rate has climbed in 2025 and he averages nearly 21 DK points at Rogers Centre. His 4.5 K-prop is a pick’em, but a +220 Win bonus and a neutral eight-run total give him a path to 20+ raw points at a mid-range salary. Razzle views Bassitt as a stability play when pairing with ceiling arms like Skubal or Luzardo.

Sean Zerillo reiterated his interest in the Blue Jays moneyline but sharpened the angle: play the full game at even money or better rather than chasing a live price or the first-five inning line. Zerillo makes the full-game number Toronto –110 while his first-five projection is a true pick’em, so the larger theoretical edge sits after the bullpens get involved. He concedes Dylan Cease has rediscovered ace form (19 strikeouts over his last two starts after a nine-run outlier) but believes San Diego’s A-relievers create a bigger gap versus Toronto’s pen than Cease does versus a resurgent Chris Bassitt. Bassitt’s profile supports the bet: walk rate chopped in half to 4.5 %, strikeout rate up to a career-best 25 %, outside-swing rate up to 33 % (career 25 %), swinging-strike rate up to 11 %, and his Location+ has climbed back to 105, correlating with a 3.2 expected ERA. With Bassitt pitching at a career peak and the Jays still catching plus prices, Zerillo is comfortable firing pre-game and would not delay for an in-game number that likely appears only once San Diego’s elite bullpen has the leverage.

Guy Boston laid out a full-unit play on the Padres money line in Toronto. He noted Dylan Cease leans almost exclusively on a four-seam/slider combo (combined 66% usage) and that is kryptonite for the Jays: Toronto ranks 26th in run value vs fastballs and dead last vs sliders. Outside of Bo Bichette and Vladimir Guerrero Jr., every projected Blue Jay posts a negative run value against sliders. Boston contrasted that with San Diego’s lineup, which averages 4.7 runs per road game and has been far more consistent. On the other side Chris Bassitt throws his sinker 40-plus percent of the time, a pitch the Padres grade below average against, so Boston passed on the SD team-total over 3.5. Instead he trusts the Padres’ superior bullpen (top-10 xFIP last two weeks vs Toronto’s middle-of-the-pack group) to win it late if necessary. Factor in the motivation angle—San Diego was just swept by Seattle—and Boston is comfortable betting and forgetting San Diego at roughly even money.

Calling Monday’s sweep hangover a blip, Donnie Rightside likes San Diego as a slight road favorite against Toronto because Chris Bassitt’s profile screams trouble versus left-handed bats. Bassitt has a 5.14 ERA over the last 30 days and, more importantly, a .224 ISO and .396 wOBA allowed to lefties across 601 career plate appearances, numbers that have worsened this month. Donnie highlighted the quartet of Luis Arraez, Jackson Merrill, Gavin Sheets and Jake Cronenworth—four left-handed hitters all sporting plus marks against right-handed pitching—as the leverage point in a cool 52-degree Rogers Centre. With Dylan Cease providing ace-level stability and a bullpen advantage, Rightside expects the Padres offense to “bounce back today” and recommends laying the short price or using San Diego in a two-leg parlay.

Cash Out Sports Picks rode with the Padres on the money line. San Diego has won seven of its last nine on the road and faces a Blue Jays squad that has dropped six of eight overall. The matchup in their eyes tilts toward San Diego because the Padres lead MLB in slugging versus right-handed pitching (.268 AVG, .396 SLG) and now see Chris Bassitt, who has surrendered nine earned across his last three outings and sports a 4.24 May ERA with a 1.47 WHIP. Dylan Cease, meanwhile, owns a 2.60 ERA in May with a microscopic .153 opponent average over 17.1 innings and has given up just one run in two previous starts against Toronto. Padres’ bullpen strength (3.26 ERA, 7th) further supports the pick. With Toronto’s bats ranking 22nd in slugging (.380) and struggling to support Bassitt, the tout expects Cease and the Padres to keep rolling.

Guy Boston recommended playing George Springer UNDER 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs (at plus money) against Dylan Cease. Springer owns a .365 season-long wOBA that plummets to .225 against sliders and he carries a 40% strike-out rate versus that pitch. Cease throws sliders 39% of the time, ranking top-10 in swinging-strike rate with the offering. Toronto collectively ranks 30th in run value against sliders, meaning Springer is unlikely to get many cushion fastballs in hitter’s counts. Boston added that Springer’s platoon splits are worse against right-handed power arms and that the wind is forecast to knock down fly balls at Rogers Centre tonight. With Cease projected for six innings and San Diego sporting a rested, high-strikeout bullpen, Boston doubts Springer sees enough quality contact to clear the 1.5 threshold.

Malcom Bamford expects Toronto to be a short home favorite once lines drop and plans to back the Blue Jays on the moneyline. His case: Chris Bassitt owns a 2.05 ERA and sub-1.00 WHIP at Rogers Centre, while San Diego is just 2-4 in its last six and managed one run or fewer in three straight games. The Padres’ bullpen disaster (ERA pushing 10) amplifies their current wobble. Even though Dylan Cease has looked better, Bamford notes Toronto’s relievers have actually out-pitched their rotation recently, giving him more trust in the Jays to win late if necessary. Until San Diego’s lineup and bullpen steady, he is happy to fade them with Bassitt dealing in his home digs.

Lonte Smith is hunting the full-game OVER in Padres-Blue Jays even before numbers post. He pointed out that both clubs are batting north of .270 over the past 10 games and are combining for 11.3 runs per nine in that span. San Diego’s bullpen has completely imploded—the high-leverage unit owns a 9.83 ERA over the last week—so even if Dylan Cease maintains his recent form (five straight starts of two earned runs or fewer, 19 strikeouts in his last two), middle-to-late innings could explode. On the Toronto side, Chris Bassitt’s stellar 2.05 Rogers Centre ERA is respected, but Smith still expects Fernando Tatis Jr. and company to snap a three-game stretch in which they scored one run or fewer. With conflicting pitcher trends but two offenses in advantageous splits and a combustible Padres ‘pen, he wants to be first in line on any total that opens below 9.

Lonte Smith said the Padres are his preferred futures wager to take the NL West crown because the current market has over-corrected after their recent slide. He acknowledged San Diego’s bullpen has been “atrocious” but expects mean-reversion as several leverage arms get healthy. Smith still trusts the lineup anchored by Fernando Tatis Jr., Juan Soto and Manny Machado, noting the Padres’ underlying offensive metrics remain top-5 in hard-hit rate and walk percentage. He views the Dodgers as over-priced due to a rotation that is ‘going through a funk’ and thinks Arizona will have to trade for pitching after Zac Gallen’s latest rough outing. All told, Smith believes the Padres offer the best blend of upside and price in a division where only one game currently separates the top three clubs.

Although both lineups have been producing—Padres 5.9 and Blue Jays 5.2 runs per game over the past 10—Data Skrive projected the contest to fall Under the posted total of 8. Their model assigned a combined run expectation below the market thanks to several factors: Toronto starter Chris Bassitt (assumed matchup) has allowed two runs or fewer in four of his last five outings, the Blue Jays’ bullpen has trimmed its ERA to 3.40 over the past two weeks, and San Diego has been far less explosive away from Petco Park (0.7 fewer runs per game on the road). With Rogers Centre playing slightly pitcher-friendly in early May—only 7.4 runs per game in its last seven contests—Data Skrive recommended a wager on the Under, projecting roughly a 52% chance that the game stays at seven runs or fewer.

Data Skrive projected San Diego to edge Toronto 5-4 and advised laying the modest –119 moneyline. Their model gave the Padres a 51% win probability, noting that San Diego has cashed 17 of 26 games (65.4%) as a favorite this season and is 16-9 specifically when priced at –119 or shorter. By contrast, the Blue Jays are just 13-14 when listed as underdogs, so the implied 54.3% break-even rate baked into –119 is viewed as reasonable for a club that converts at a significantly higher clip in the same role. Recent form is another factor: the Padres are averaging 5.9 runs per game over their last 10 and have hit 12 homers in that span, while their bullpen still sports a solid 9.9 K/9. With Toronto’s staff ERA sitting at 4.00 over the same window and the Jays giving up 15 homers in their last 10, Data Skrive believes Manny Machado and Fernando Tatis Jr. give San Diego enough thump to justify backing the short favorite.