Morgan labeled Bobby Witt Jr. the slate’s premier spend-up bat at $4,200. Witt is slashing .323 with five homers, 17 doubles, and 14 steals, and since the start of 2023 he has a .904 OPS versus right-handers that jumps to .994 at Kauffman Stadium. He now faces Lucas Giolito, whose 5.11 FIP in 2023 and 4.86 mark through two post-injury starts suggest the righty remains hittable. Morgan expects Witt’s combination of power, speed, and elite home splits to torch Giolito and anchor Royal stacks.

Peterson laid -123 with Kansas City (priced at -139) because Lucas Giolito has already coughed up nine runs in 9.2 innings and carried a 4.88 ERA last year with 1.5 HR/9 and over three walks per nine. By contrast, Seth Lugo brings a 2.84 ERA, supported by the game’s No. 4 bullpen (2.76 ERA). Peterson thinks Giolito’s homer problem against an improving KC lineup makes the Royals rightful chalk.

Brad Francis recommended the No-Run First Inning in Royals-Red Sox. The Royals have cashed five straight NRFIs against AL-East foes, and Seth Lugo’s sub-3.00 ERA gives Kansas City a trustworthy first-frame arm. Although Francis admitted slight concern with Red Sox starter Lucas Giolito’s volatility, he still trusts both pitchers to put up a clean opening inning at Fenway and keep the streak alive.

B Wade hammered Salvador Perez over 1.5 total bases versus Lucas Giolito, citing a jaw-dropping 15-for-31 career line (.484) in the matchup. That sample includes plenty of extra-base knocks and represents 31 plate appearances—large enough for Wade to dismiss randomness. Perez is hitting .252 against right-handers versus .239 overall, has eclipsed 1.5 total bases in six of his last 10, and remains the lineup’s primary power source. Wade preferred total bases to the 2.5 H+R+RBI line because Perez often finishes with exactly two, making TB the cleaner angle. He paired the play on Better, leveraging its daily promo boosts for a 3x payout.

B Wade backed Rafael Devers over 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs, noting the lefty has cleared that mark in three straight and 13 of his last 20 games. Devers is 2-for-5 with a homer off projected starter Seth Lugo and owns a .260 average versus righties compared to his .253 season clip. Five of his six 2025 homers have come against right-handed pitching. In this current series with Kansas City he has already smashed the combo line in both outings, including a four-hit night Saturday. Wade trusts the recent barrel rate uptick and likes that Sleeper is paying 3x on a two-leg entry built around this prop.

Guy Boston recommended backing the Red Sox in the first five innings (or full-game ML at plus money) behind Garrett Crochet. Crochet’s high-octane four-seamer (97.4 mph) and wipeout slider have produced a 34% strikeout rate and 2.11 xFIP through his first 42 AL starts. Boston believes that arsenal matches up perfectly against a Kansas City lineup that, despite a 9-1 run in its last 10, has scored four or fewer in seven of those wins and owns the league’s fourth-highest K-rate versus left-handed sliders. He acknowledged Cole Ragans’ talent but highlighted Boston’s ability to work counts (seventh-best walk rate) and Ragans’ 42% hard-hit rate allowed his last three outings. The key angle is avoiding Boston’s overworked bullpen (used 12.1 innings the past two days) by isolating the first five. Boston would also consider a KC team-total under 1.5 F5 if books hang it at even money, trusting Crochet’s 0.95 WHIP and the Royals’ bottom-tier power profile in night games at Fenway.

Guy Boston took Jarren Duran under 1.5 hits at ‑245. Duran has fallen short of two hits in eight of his last ten and owns a 69 % season under rate (27 of 39). On the road he has stayed under in 11 of his past 14 (1.1 hits per game). Historically he is 0-for-6 against Royals lefty Cole Ragans. Duran struggles against southpaws (.220 average, 47.2 WRC+), while Ragans is stifling left-handed hitters this year (.156 average, .217 BABIP). The combination of Duran’s road splits and Ragans’ dominance makes a multi-hit outing unlikely.

Derek Carty’s THE BAT X model likes betting OVER 7.5 Ks for Cole Ragans at -100. Ragans’ 94.9 mph average heater sits in the 83rd percentile among starters, and Boston’s projected lineup whiffs 25.3% versus lefties. THE BAT X gives the prop a 58% hit rate and +$16.92 expected value, making it Carty’s top strikeout play of the day.

Kenny G recommended under 7.5 in Fenway-bound Boston–Kansas City despite the low total. Garrett Crochet (2.02 ERA) has allowed one or zero earned in five of seven starts and faces a Royals lineup ranked 23rd in runs and 22nd in slugging. Cole Ragans (3.79 ERA) punched out 11 White Sox last time and draws a Red Sox offense that feels overrated to Kenny after scoring 1, 5, 6, 1, 4 and 3 in its last six. Bullpens support the case: KC is top-5 at 2.76 ERA while Boston is merely average at 3.70. Royals are 13-7 to the under at home; Red Sox 10-9 to the over on the road but recently slumping. He sees a low-scoring grind.

Data Skrive’s projection called for the game to finish 4-3 in favor of Kansas City and specifically tagged the Over 7 runs as the preferred total play. Their reasoning rests on both clubs’ recent offensive form: Boston is averaging 4.4 runs with 13 homers in its last ten, while Kansas City is at 4.7 runs with 14 long balls in the same span – a combined 9.1 runs per game. Even with the Royals’ recent 1.37 ERA streak, Cole Ragans has surrendered eight walks over his last two starts, and Boston’s bullpen has been used heavily after multiple short outings. With warm May weather at Kauffman Stadium and a modest number of just 7 runs, the model projects enough scoring punch on both sides to clear the total.

Data Skrive recommended taking the Royals at +100 on the moneyline even though Boston opened as a –120 favorite. Their model pointed out that Kansas City has covered seven of its last ten and is 5-1 outright the last six times it was priced as an underdog. The Royals enter Saturday on a 9-1 run with a sparkling 1.37 team ERA over that stretch, while Cole Ragans has quietly become a top-of-the-rotation arm. Meanwhile Boston is just 4-6 in its last ten despite being favored in eight of those contests. The article’s simulated win probabilities (Royals 45%) sit tighter than the market implies, yet the score projection actually leans Kansas City 4-3, giving the plus odds underdog tangible value.

Lonte Smith said Kansas City deserves to be a slight favorite, not a coin-flip underdog, against Boston. The Royals are 15-5 at Kauffman Stadium and have won eight of their last nine there. Left-hander Cole Ragans looked "phenomenal" after a one-turn break, limiting the White Sox to one run over five innings with nine strikeouts and sitting 97 mph. Smith acknowledged Connor Crochet is the better arm but questioned his workload ceiling – he has not thrown more than 94 pitches all season while the Boston pen ranks 23rd in xFIP over the past two weeks. Kansas City’s offense is cranking 5.7 runs per game at home and owns the league’s second-best hard-hit rate since May 1. Lonte projected the true line at Royals –110 and grabbed any plus money, calling it a pure value play on the surging home side.

Cash Out Sports Picks liked the under, highlighting two dominant southpaws and a park that suppresses scoring. Garrett Crochet sports a 2.02 ERA with 56 K over 49 IP, while Cole Ragans boasts 57 strikeouts and a 3.79 ERA, plus that 1.35 career mark versus Boston. Kaufman Stadium unders are 13-3 in the last 16, with only 5.56 runs per game. Royals games overall sit 25-13-1 to the under; Boston 19-18-2. With both pitchers capable of working deep and each lineup struggling against lefties, the tout expects another grind-it-out, sub-total affair.

Brad Francis returned to the well with the Red Sox money line after Friday’s extra-inning loss, citing Garrett Crochet—"one of the best pitchers on this planet"—as the difference maker. He added that Boston has won four straight as a favorite against Kansas City and believes Royals ace Cole Regans is already showing regression this season. The betting tools at SportsChatPlace flagged value on Boston as well, and Francis expects the Sox to capitalize on the pitching edge and bounce back immediately.

Brad Francis recommended betting Brady Singer under 5.5 strikeouts. He noted Singer has stayed below this number in three of his last five outings and now draws a contact-heavy Houston lineup that rarely whiffs. With the Astros ranking among the toughest teams to strike out and Singer’s recent K dip, the SportsChatPlace betting tools triggered an under play that Francis agreed with.

Cash Out Sports Picks laid the money line with Kansas City, citing a 10-1 run and a 16-5 home record. Cole Ragans has limited foes to one earned or fewer in three of his last five and owns a 1.35 ERA in three career starts versus Boston. The Red Sox, 9-11 away, counter with Garrett Crochet (2 ER or fewer in four of five) but their offense has sputtered on the road the past two weeks. With the Royals surging and sending their ace-level lefty, the tout prefers sticking with the hot hand.

Matt Perrault said he is now treating every Garrett Crochet outing as a first-five moneyline play, starting with Saturday’s matchup in Kansas City at –120. Perrault wants no exposure to Boston’s bullpen, which repeatedly coughs up late leads. The Red Sox give Crochet plenty of early help—2.88 runs per game in the first five overall (5th-best in MLB) and 2.85 on the road (tied for 6th). By taking the F5 moneyline rather than the –0.5 run line, a tie after five innings results in a push, protecting the stake while still capitalizing on Boston’s top-five early offense and Crochet’s strong recent form (four straight starts of one or two earned runs). Perrault expects the approach to remain profitable the rest of the season whenever Crochet takes the mound.

Matt Perrault recommended Boston –0.5 on the first-five-innings run line at –120 against Kansas City. He wants exposure only to the early frames because the Red Sox bullpen keeps squandering leads. Boston’s lineup ranks first in MLB in runs during the first three innings, while KC starter Cole Regans has wobbled in two of his last three outings (5 ER at Detroit, 4 ER at home versus Colorado). Perrault called the Red Sox starter "their ace"—Garrett Crochet in his notes—and pointed to Crochet’s recent form: 5 IP/1 ER vs Minnesota, 7 IP/2 ER vs Toronto, and previously two scoreless outings of 6+ innings. With Boston’s offense typically providing early run support and Regans occasionally vulnerable, Perrault expects the Sox to be leading after five and prefers the –0.5 line to avoid late-game bullpen variance.

Greg Peterson went Over 7 because the advanced numbers hint at regression for both hurlers. Garrett Crochet has dominated (2.02 ERA, 3 HR in 49 IP), but a 2.82 FIP and 3.7 BB/9 say he is due to give a little back. Cole Ragans looks like the reverse case: a 3.79 ERA masks a 2.38 FIP and absurd 14.4 K/9, yet he faces a Red Sox offense averaging 4.9 runs (third in AL). Add a gusty 12-mph wind out to right and two overworked bullpens, and Peterson projects 7.7 runs.

Lonte Smith pounced on Kansas City at even money, arguing the line should be closer to −115 given the Royals’ white-hot form. KC is 8-2 in its last ten, owns a 2.20 ERA across staff during that span, and has ridden a +31 run differential at Kauffman (15-5 home record). Smith admitted Michael Lorenzen’s contact profile is scary after giving up four bombs to Baltimore, yet he trusts Kansas City’s bullpen (2.02 ERA last ten) to shorten the game if Lorenzen weathers two passes through Boston’s order. He remains unimpressed by Kutter Crawford’s 38% hard-hit rate and believes Bobby Witt Jr. and Vinnie Pasquantino can capitalize early. "Even money on a team this hot is wrong," he concluded.

Scott Reichel bypassed a tricky side and grabbed the Red Sox team total over (likely 4.5) because he wants to attack Michael Lorenzen directly. Lorenzen is fresh off a Baltimore meltdown (4 HR, 5 ER) and sports an ugly 10.3% barrel rate on the year. Reichel respects Kansas City’s recent surge but still trusts Boston’s deep lineup—top-10 in hard-hit percentage—to punish any sinker that leaks up. He conceded Kauffman suppresses homers yet expects doubles alley to play for the Sox’s line-drive bats, projecting five-plus runs even if Kansas City ultimately wins the game.

Donaldson wagered four units on Boston’s full-game moneyline, preferring the unknown ceiling of rookie Hunter Dobbins to the very known floor of Michael Lorenzen. He highlighted Lorenzen’s 16.3% strikeout rate, elevated walk percentage and bottom-quartile hard-hit rate, adding that the veteran rarely works past the fifth inning. With the wind blowing out from dead center in Kauffman Stadium, Donaldson expects any solid contact to travel, and he trusts the Red Sox lineup—despite early-season inconsistency—to take advantage. Kansas City is hot, but Donaldson thinks their momentum stalls the moment Lorenzen has to navigate traffic.

At –108, Lindquist likes Boston because rookie Hunter Dobbins has shown enough pitch-mix deception (3.6 % barrel rate through three starts) to outduel Michael Lorenzen, a known target of his. Lorenzen’s 18 % K-rate and 41 % hard-hit rate look exploitable against Boston’s left-handed core of Rafael Devers, Jarren Duran, and Masataka Yoshida. Conversely, the right-heavy Royals feature only Vinnie Pasquantino as a real lefty threat, limiting platoon leverage against Dobbins. Given near-even odds in a neutral weather spot at Kauffman, Lindquist graded the Red Sox a small but clear edge worth a money-line ticket.

He paired the side with the Under, noting Royals games have stayed below the total in five of the last seven. Kansas City leads MLB with a 1.77 team ERA in May, while Boston owns a 3.34 ERA over the same span. Both clubs are mediocre with runners in scoring position (Boston .741 OPS, K.C. .614), and Lorenzen has allowed one or fewer earned runs in two of his last three starts. The tout expects another low-scoring affair.

Cash Out Sports Picks recommended the Royals moneyline. Kansas City is 15-5 at home and on a six-game heater. Michael Lorenzen is 2-0 with a 1.50 ERA and .022 opponents’ average in two Kauffman starts, and the bullpen owns a 2.88 ERA (5th in MLB). Boston counters with rookie Dobbins, who just gave up four earned runs and faces a relief corps that ranks only 16th. With Lorenzen allowing one earned run total over his last three outings, the tout trusts Kansas City to stay hot.

Welsh flagged the Boston Red Sox at +105 to make the playoffs as one of the few remaining plus-money opportunities in the postseason market. Despite trailing the Yankees by only 2.5 games and sitting ahead of the Rays and Blue Jays, the Sox are still priced like fringe contenders. Welsh likes their upside: a bullpen anchored by Garrett Crochet, several injured starters (Walker Buehler, Lucas Giolito) on the mend, and a trade-deadline war chest of prospects. He also noted that AL Central teams currently boasting better records than any AL East club are likely to regress, leaving a wild-card path open. If Boston’s offense—centered around an MVP-caliber Alex Bregman—heats up, Welsh expects the line to flip to minus money quickly. He recommends locking in the modest plus number now.

Peterson grabbed Under 9 (makes it 8.7) citing Kansas City’s anemic offense (27th, <3.4 runs per game) and a Royals bullpen that owns a 2.90 ERA, fifth-best in baseball. Michael Lorenzen’s 4.23 ERA is inflated by a 1.9 HR/9 rate, but he draws a Red Sox lineup that averages a full run less on the road (4.4) than at Fenway. Rookie Hunter Dobbins has been serviceable through three starts (3.78 ERA, 1.1 HR/9) and Boston’s pen is middle-of-the-pack (4.04). With run suppression from both bullpens and KC’s bats lagging, Peterson expects a low-scoring grind.