Doubling down on his earlier moneyline stance, Scott Reichel shifted to the plus‑money run line, taking Reds –1.5 at +130 behind Hunter Greene. Reichel emphasized that Greene not only owns a sub‑1.00 ERA and 15.2 straight scoreless innings, but he also routinely works into the seventh because his 4.2 % walk rate keeps pitch counts manageable. Baltimore counters with brand‑new call‑up Brandon Young (2.76 ERA in limited Double‑A/Triple‑A action), and Reichel questions how long the rookie can last against a patient Cincy lineup that sees the sixth‑most pitches per plate appearance in MLB. With the Orioles bullpen carrying a 4.98 ERA over the past ten days and Greene capable of minimizing leverage innings for the Reds’ relievers, Reichel sees Cincinnati winning by multiple runs far more than the implied 43 %. He would still endorse the –1.5 down to +115 but prefers locking in +130 while it is available.

Scott Reichel advised backing Cincinnati at –115 because Hunter Greene has been untouchable while Baltimore is sending debutant Brandon Young. Greene owns a 0.98 ERA through his first three starts, firing 15.2 consecutive scoreless innings and limiting every opponent to four hits or fewer. That stretch came against legitimate line‑ups—San Francisco twice and Texas—so Reichel considers it more than early‑season noise. Meanwhile, the Orioles’ rotation sits above a 5.00 ERA and turns to Young, a 26‑year‑old with zero MLB innings and middling Triple‑A strikeout numbers. Neither club has separated in the standings (Reds 9‑10, O’s 8‑10), but Reichel deemed the pitching gap massive enough to overlook Cincinnati’s streaky bats and even floated Greene as a dark‑horse Cy Young candidate. He would play the Reds up to –125 but prefers the current cheap road price.

Brian Howard is doubling down on the Reds by taking Cincinnati -0.5 in the first five innings and betting Hunter Greene’s strikeout over if books post 7.5 or lower. Baltimore just whiffed 11 times against soft‑tossing lefty Andrew Abbott and now draws Greene’s 99‑mph heater and slider that owns a 38 % whiff rate. The Orioles may sit Gary Sanchez—three Ks Friday—giving Greene an even cleaner lineup of righties who swing through high velocity. Opposing him is Brandon Young, a right‑hander making his MLB debut; Howard believes Cincinnati’s right‑hand‑heavy lineup (Elly De La Cruz, Jeimer Candelario, Spencer Steer) will jump Young early, mirroring the Abbott game script in reverse. He’ll also sprinkle Reds -1.5 at +130 but prefers the first‑five angle to isolate Greene’s edge before the shaky Reds bullpen arrives.

For the total, the tout grabbed the UNDER, citing Greene’s dominance and the possibility that Brandon Young can ride adrenaline for a handful of solid frames. Greene’s 0.98 ERA and spotless 19‑inning shutout run make a big Baltimore outburst unlikely, while Young’s Triple‑A line (2.76 ERA, strong K/BB) hints he can keep the Reds from exploding early. Add in Baltimore’s season‑long inconsistency at the plate and the handicapper expects a tight tempo, projecting a low‑scoring contest where one team may have to scratch to reach three runs.

Cash Out Sports Picks jumped on Cincinnati’s moneyline because of Hunter Greene’s nuclear start to 2025. Greene rides a 19‑inning scoreless streak and owns a 0.98 ERA through four turns, combining an upper‑90s heater with far better command (dramatically improved walk rate) than in prior seasons. Baltimore’s bats have struggled against premium velocity, and the tout doubts they will suddenly click. Offensively, Cincinnati just slapped eight runs on the O’s Friday and features a deep, patient lineup led by Elly De La Cruz and Spencer Steer. Baltimore counters with Brandon Young, a 25‑year‑old making his MLB debut who is not ranked among the Orioles’ top‑15 prospects and lacks a true plus pitch. The handicapper dislikes betting on debutants in this spot and argued the line should be even steeper in Cincinnati’s favor given the clear disparity on both sides of the ball.

Despite Hunter Greene’s video‑game stat line (0.58 WHIP, sub‑1.00 ERA, 31 K in 27.2 IP), Romanelli backed Baltimore on the moneyline. Cincinnati is only 2‑2 in Greene’s four starts because the lineup disappears and the bullpen can leak late. The Orioles profile far better versus right‑handers than lefties and boast one of MLB’s deepest bullpens to navigate a planned opener or bullpen day. Ron expects the O’s to scratch out a couple of runs—Greene’s toughest assignment yet—and trusts their offense and pen to outlast an inconsistent Reds attack.

Slade noted the same 10,000‑run simulation spits out a 52% probability that Reds‑Orioles finishes below the 9‑run total. The projection leans on Hunter Greene’s sizzling 0.98 ERA through three starts and Baltimore rookie Brandon Young’s clean early stat line, plus a neutral weather forecast that isn’t expected to boost offense at Camden Yards. While only a slight edge, the model still prefers the under at current ‑105 odds.

Nick Slade said the Dimers MLB simulation model found its biggest advantage on Orioles +1.5 Saturday. After running 10,000 game simulations that factor in current lineups, park conditions at Camden Yards, and the Hunter Greene‑Brandon Young pitching matchup, the model gives Baltimore a 62% chance to cover the run line versus market odds of ‑156. That 11‑point edge makes the plus‑run‑and‑a‑half the top betting angle despite the Reds owning a narrow 51% win probability straight‑up.

Kingpin hammered Greene Over 7.5 Ks. Greene’s new splitter has pushed his swinging‑strike rate to 17.8%, and the Orioles whiff 31% of the time on pitches in the upper third—the exact zone where Greene lives with 100‑mph heat. He has eclipsed eight strikeouts in three consecutive starts and is projected for ~102 pitches.

Kingpin bet the Reds moneyline behind Hunter Greene’s 0.98 ERA, 36% K rate, and back‑to‑back double‑digit K games. Baltimore trots out rookie Brandon Young making an early‑career start, and the O’s own a 27% strikeout rate versus 97‑plus MPH fastballs. Cincinnati doesn’t need huge offense with Greene likely suppressing runs; Baltimore’s bullpen 4.92 ERA magnifies the edge.

JD Bets targeted TJ Friedl to go deep at +1200 in Camden Yards. With a 17‑mph wind blowing out to right‑center and the total already juiced to 9, JD thinks the park plays much smaller than usual. The Reds have been dreadful versus left‑handed pitching overall, but Friedl is the exception, slashing .268 with five hits and four runs in limited left‑on‑left plate appearances this season. Cade Povich’s MLB sample is minuscule, giving JD no reason to fear the matchup. Friedl homered Wednesday and JD likes his pull power to take advantage of the wind tunnel. He considered Baltimore moneyline but ultimately logged the Friedl HR prop as his official play from the game, expecting everyone else in Cincinnati’s order to struggle while Friedl provides the punch.

Scott Reichel faded Gary Sanchez’s plate discipline, betting UNDER 0.5 walks at ‑130. Reichel noted that Sanchez has drawn zero walks in six of his last seven games and owns just one free pass in 10 plate appearances against left‑handed pitching this year. Sanchez historically hacks first and asks questions later—his career 7.9% walk rate has cratered to 5.4% since 2023. Friday he faces Reds southpaw Andrew Abbott, a solid but not wild arm; Reichel argued that even though Abbott averages 3.5 BB/9, Sanchez’s swing‑happy approach overrides the matchup. He believes the true line should be closer to ‑150 given Sanchez’s lifetime numbers and current 220 batting average power‑only profile.

Vaughn Dalzell leaned to the UNDER 9.0, pointing out conflicting but ultimately favorable tempo signs. Orioles contests have cashed the OVER 11‑5‑2, yet those totals were posted at an average of 8.5; tonight’s higher 9 hinges on two young arms that miss bats. Abbott’s 24% strikeout rate showed up again in his five‑inning, 5‑K debut, and Povich’s ground‑ball tilt (54% GB rate in two starts) helps neutralize Baltimore’s small right‑field porch. The Reds have stayed UNDER in four of seven road games, and after using five relievers Thursday their plan is to extend Abbott to roughly 90 pitches, slowing late‑inning scoring. Weather models show mid‑50s temps and a 10‑mph in‑blowing breeze, shaving about a half‑run of expected offense according to NBC’s Park Factor data. Dalzell graded the UNDER as a 56% proposition, playable down to 8.5 at +105.

Drew Dinsick noted that Cincinnati is 11‑8 against the run line this year and has covered in four of Andrew Abbott’s last five outings dating back to 2024 spring. Abbott owns a 1.80 ERA and limited the Pirates to one run over five frames in his lone 2025 start, giving the Reds a decent shot to keep Friday’s game within one. Baltimore’s Cade Povich has yet to complete five innings and owns a 1.71 WHIP, so Dinsick is comfortable grabbing the extra 1.5 runs with a visiting lineup that still features a red‑hot Elly De La Cruz (2‑for‑4 with a homer Thursday). He labeled Cincinnati +1.5 his preferred alternate side if bettors are unwilling to lay the Orioles’ chalk on the moneyline.

Jay Croucher said the NBC Sports projection model shows actionable value on Baltimore at -157. The model folds in park factors at Camden Yards, the Reds’ league‑worst bullpen ERA over the last week (7.88 after a 10‑inning loss in Seattle on Thursday) and Cincinnati’s 4–3 UNDER record on the road, which hints at suppressed run support behind Andrew Abbott. Meanwhile Baltimore’s lineup is heating up – Gunnar Henderson is 7‑for‑17 his last four games – and Cade Povich has allowed only two earned runs in each of his first two starts. With the Orioles coming off a day of rest after their first series win of the season, Croucher sees enough micro (travel spot, bullpen fatigue) and macro (model power rating) angles to justify laying the short price on the O’s moneyline.

In the same matchup, Kenny G leaned Under 9 runs. Abbott versus Povich sets up as a "no‑run‑first‑inning" type affair, and both clubs possess top‑10 bullpen ERAs (Reds 3.07, Orioles 3.19). Despite Camden Yards’ hitter‑friendly rep, Cincinnati trends 10‑8‑1 to the Under and Baltimore 10‑5‑3 to the Over mainly because their bullpen implosions skew totals; Kenny trusts the relief units more than public perception. With neither lineup consistently slugging—Reds 26th in SLG, Orioles still searching for last year’s power—he projected closer to 7.8 runs.

Kenny G recommended Cincinnati at +130 in Baltimore, citing a pitching edge. Andrew Abbott sports a 1.80 ERA after fanning five Pirates over five innings, and the Reds back him with a top‑six bullpen (3.07 ERA). Baltimore counters with rookie Kade Povich, who has been hittable—19 hits over his first 9.2 MLB innings—and a lineup that has been merely league‑average in 2025. While the Orioles’ offense exploded for 6 and 9 runs in its last two, Kenny questioned whether that carries over against Cincinnati’s stingy staff. With the better starter and comparable bullpen, he felt the Reds should be closer to +110.

Ricky Dimon backed the Reds moneyline at +135, pointing to both a surging Cincinnati lineup and a favorable pitching matchup. The Reds racked up 29 hits and 18 runs in a three‑game set with Seattle earlier in the week, a sign their bats are heating up. Baltimore rookie Cole Povich owns a 5.20 ERA from 2024 and has opened 2025 with an ugly 1.80 WHIP; the Orioles have dropped his last two starts. Dimon noted that Cincinnati starter Andrew Abbott looked sharp in his season debut, limiting Pittsburgh to one run on two hits over five innings. With Abbott likely to receive ample run support against Povich, Dimon labeled the Reds a worthwhile underdog play.

Reichel jumped on Cincinnati at +130, calling Baltimore’s –155 tag “insane” given the Orioles still have no announced starter and rank bottom‑five in staff ERA. He actually likes Andrew Abbott—1‑0, 1.80 ERA, two hits allowed over five scoreless against Pittsburgh—and expects the southpaw to work deeper because the Reds burned several bullpen arms in Thursday’s extra‑inning loss. Baltimore’s rotation is in shambles with Grayson Rodriguez nursing a shoulder flare‑up and Shintaro Fujinami scheduled Thursday (rarely tops five innings), meaning Brandon Hyde could be forced into another piecemeal pitching plan. Offensively the clubs are comparable: the O’s have pop with Gunnar Henderson and Adley Rutschman, but have dropped four of six; Cincinnati owns league‑average power and should see a vulnerable long‑man or spot starter. Reichel therefore prefers Reds full‑game ML and even a first‑five wager behind Abbott, trusting the better defined pitching path and the plus price.

Reichel jumped on Cincinnati at +130, calling Baltimore’s –155 tag “insane” given the Orioles still have no announced starter and rank bottom‑five in staff ERA. He actually likes Andrew Abbott—1‑0, 1.80 ERA, two hits allowed over five scoreless against Pittsburgh—and expects the southpaw to work deeper because the Reds burned several bullpen arms in Thursday’s extra‑inning loss. Baltimore’s rotation is in shambles with Grayson Rodriguez nursing a shoulder flare‑up and Shintaro Fujinami scheduled Thursday (rarely tops five innings), meaning Brandon Hyde could be forced into another piecemeal pitching plan. Offensively the clubs are comparable: the O’s have pop with Gunnar Henderson and Adley Rutschman, but have dropped four of six; Cincinnati owns league‑average power and should see a vulnerable long‑man or spot starter. Reichel therefore prefers Reds full‑game ML and even a first‑five wager behind Abbott, trusting the better defined pitching path and the plus price.

Drew Martin laid the juice with Baltimore −140, noting a series of edges. Andrew Abbott’s velocity was down in his lone 2025 start and his extreme fly‑ball profile has carried over from last season, making him ripe for regression on a humid Camden Yards night. Meanwhile, 25‑year‑old Cade Povich owns a sub‑3.00 FIP and a sparkling 14‑to‑3 K/BB ratio through three outings. Martin also pointed out the situational spot: the Reds open a three‑city, ten‑game road trip while the Orioles are simply finishing up a home stand. With the better platoon splits and the superior bullpen behind Povich, Martin advised backing the birds.

Drew Martin laid the juice with Baltimore −140, noting a series of edges. Andrew Abbott’s velocity was down in his lone 2025 start and his extreme fly‑ball profile has carried over from last season, making him ripe for regression on a humid Camden Yards night. Meanwhile, 25‑year‑old Cade Povich owns a sub‑3.00 FIP and a sparkling 14‑to‑3 K/BB ratio through three outings. Martin also pointed out the situational spot: the Reds open a three‑city, ten‑game road trip while the Orioles are simply finishing up a home stand. With the better platoon splits and the superior bullpen behind Povich, Martin advised backing the birds.

Power advised betting the full‑game OVER at nine runs or better. Cincinnati has plated five‑plus in five of its last seven contests and is fresh off an 11‑7, extra‑inning loss to Seattle that highlighted how shaky its bullpen can be. Baltimore had a string of five straight games with 9+ total runs before yesterday; even in the ‘low‑scoring’ 6‑3 win the O’s still did the heavy lifting. Neither starter—Anturabit for Cincinnati nor lefty Cade Povich for Baltimore—projects as a bat‑miss guy, so Power expects both lineups to cash in early and the Reds’ relief corps to inflate the total late. He would not play it if the number rises above the key nine.

Cash Out Sports Picks endorsed Cincinnati on the money line. Rookie lefty Andrew Abbott opened 2025 with five strong innings of one‑run ball and now faces an Orioles lineup batting .216 over the past week. Baltimore counters with Cade Povich, who owns a superficially tidy 3.60 ERA but has allowed 24 hits in 15 innings and a 5.00 ERA at Camden Yards (.316 opponent average). The Reds boast the third‑best team ERA in baseball and an elite bullpen (2.95 ERA, seventh). Offensively they rank third with an .851 OPS in clutch spots, well ahead of Baltimore’s .712 (13th). Given Cincinnati’s pitching form and advantage with runners in scoring position, the handicapper sees value grabbing the Reds.

The analyst played the under citing two stout bullpens—Cincinnati 2.95 ERA (7th) and Baltimore 3.80 (15th)—and the tendency for both clubs to kill rallies by grounding into double plays (Reds tied 17th with 11, Orioles tied 3rd with 17). Six of the last ten meetings have cashed unders. With Abbott in good form, Povich struggling but still managing run prevention, and cooler bats on both sides, the handicapper expects scoring to stay below the posted total.