Bill Harrelson advised taking the UNDER on 1.5 total bases for Mark Vientos when the Mets host the Rockies. He noted Vientos has failed to reach two bases in 11 of his last 13 games and sits at a 67 % season–long under rate (34 of 51). The matchup brings even more downside: Vientos is batting just .167 off left-handed pitching—the handedness Colorado is sending to the mound—and he has stayed under this number in four of his last five meetings with the Rockies. Books agree, with DraftKings, Hard Rock and Sleeper all juicing the under. With only about four plate appearances projected, Harrelson sees little path to two total bases.

Cash Out Sports Host recommended taking the Mets on both the money-line and the run-line against Colorado. Rookie left-hander Carson Pomquist has been torched for 14 runs in his first three big-league starts (8.78 ERA), and the Rockies bullpen remains bottom-tier. New York profiles perfectly for the matchup: the lineup hits .251 and averages 4.67 runs versus lefties, Clay Holmes has yielded only eight earned over his last four outings, and the Mets’ bullpen ranks second in MLB. The club has won five of six while Colorado drags a six-game losing streak and the worst betting ROI in baseball. Given those splits, he called the Mets a “smart play” to win comfortably.

Lonte Smith’s home-run pick is Brandon Nimmo, citing a perfect storm of factors. Rockies starter Antonio Sensatela has surrendered 4+ earned runs in six straight outings and owns a 7.89 ERA during that stretch. Citi Field will have 12-mph winds blowing out to right, boosting left-handed power. Nimmo has five hits in his last three home games after snapping an 0-for-17 slump on the road and now faces a pitcher allowing a .406 OBP the second and third time through the order. Lonte emphasized that Nimmo has not homered since May 11, so sportsbooks are hanging a friendlier number than usual on his HR prop—an angle he wants to exploit in both betting markets and DFS tournaments.

Lonte Smith built a two-leg parlay: Mets team total over 5.5 with Rockies team total under 2.5, projecting a lopsided affair. Senga has been dominant (one earned run or fewer in 7 of 8 starts; 36% CSW on the ghost fork) and faces a Colorado roster dead-last in road OPS (.557). Sensatela, meanwhile, has a 7.89 ERA across his last six and has given up 4+ earned in six straight, setting up a ‘get-right’ spot for a slumping Mets offense. Smith expects New York to hang six or more, noting Sensatela’s .406 OBP allowed the second and third time through the order, while Colorado may not scratch out two runs against Senga and a rested bullpen (2.98 ERA last 10 days). At standard pricing the parlay pays roughly +160 and he would play it down to +140.

Scott Reichel recommended an alternate run line, Mets –2.5 at roughly –120, calling Antonio Sensatela ‘batting practice’. The right-hander is 1-9 with a 6.54 ERA, has surrendered 8+ hits in five of six, and owns MLB’s worst xERA (7.02). Kodai Senga counters with a 1.46 ERA and has allowed one earned run or fewer in seven of eight starts, four of them scoreless. Reichel hammered home Colorado’s historic road ineptitude — 3-25 record, .266 wOBA away from Coors — and the Mets’ clear motivation after falling behind Philadelphia in the division. He expects an early 4-0 cushion and a comfortable 7-2 type final, advising bettors not to fear the juice so long as the –2.5 price stays below –130.

Kenny G advised skipping the absurd -400 moneyline and instead playing the Mets -1.5 at -170. Kodai Senga owns a sparkling 1.46 ERA and just limited the Dodgers to one run, while New York has won five of six and boasts an MLB-best 21-7 record at Citi Field. Antonio Senzatela counters with a 6.50 ERA and an 0-5 team mark in his last five starts for a Colorado club that is 3-25 on the road and ranks dead last in runs, average and OBP. The Mets’ bullpen sits among league leaders, whereas Colorado’s remains shaky. Kenny expects Senga to dominate and New York’s lineup to do enough damage to cover the run line comfortably.

To complete the two-legger, Perrault simply faded the worst road team in baseball. Colorado is an unfathomable 3-26 away from Coors Field, while the Mets are 22-7 at Citi Field. Books have priced New York at roughly –400, but pairing them with Detroit brings the ticket down to –110. With the Rockies generating a league-low .581 OPS on the road and averaging just 2.8 runs per game outside Denver, Perrault sees virtually no path for an upset and is willing to use the hefty favorite as a parlay piece instead of laying the massive number.

Guy Boston Sports played the full-game under in Rockies–Mets, projecting something like a 4-3 Mets win. He said the Citi Field forecast is cold and wet, which historically knocks roughly 8–10 % off home-run production according to his weather model. Kyle Freeland owns a 55 % ground-ball rate and has allowed two runs or fewer in three of his last four road starts, while David Peterson has neutralized lefties all season and gets a Colorado lineup that ranks 29th in wRC+ away from Coors. Neither bullpen has been overworked this week, giving him confidence the game stays under the posted 8.5 total even if one starter wobbles.

Mark advised taking the Mets at –1.5 runs (–150) rather than laying a prohibitive money line. David Peterson has been "absolutely phenomenal," and New York’s 34-22 record suggests the offense will eventually click. Kyle Freeland is 0-something on the year, and Colorado’s bats historically disappear away from Coors, leaving them vulnerable to a goose-egg. Mark projects a 5-1 or 6-1 type Mets victory and warns that an Over 7.5 exposes bettors to a possible Rockies shutout, making the run line the cleaner path.

Cash Out Sports Picks advised taking the full-game UNDER because the Mets’ home games have averaged only 8.13 total runs and sit 10-16-2 to the over at Citi Field. New York allows a league-best 3.95 runs per game at home, and David Peterson’s last four starts have produced a 1-2-1 O/U record. Colorado owns MLB’s worst offense, scoring 3.16 runs a night overall and hitting the under in six of its last seven contests. On the highway the Rockies are 8-19-1 to the under. Combine Colorado’s punch-less lineup with the Mets’ stingy staff and the tout sees a pitchers’ duel rather than a slugfest.

Cash Out Sports Picks said the Mets are a slam-dunk side play against Colorado. He pointed out that Kyle Freeland has guided the Rockies to a 1-10 team record in his 11 starts while giving up a 5.86 ERA and an ugly .336 opponent average. Meanwhile New York is 21-7 at Citi Field and owns the league’s best home pitching staff, limiting visitors to 3.95 runs a game. Colorado drags the worst record in baseball (9-47) and is 3-25 on the road. With the Mets in the middle of a 9-game homestand (4-2 so far) and hungry after a loss to the White Sox, the tout expects New York to win comfortably and cover any reasonable run-line spread.

Scott Reichel singled out Pete Alonso as his home-run play of the day against Rockies lefty Kyle Freeland. Citi Field is forecast for a 7 mph breeze blowing out to left, a perfect jet stream for Alonso’s pull-side power. Freeland may have allowed only three long balls over the past month, but Reichel argued the underlying contact is frightening: a .317 batting average against and 43% hard-hit rate overall. Alonso has rediscovered his timing, homering in two of the last four games and posting a 52% fly-ball rate during that stretch. Given Freeland’s 0-7 record and .930 OPS allowed to righties on the road, Reichel is happy to play Alonso Over 0.5 HR at +325 or better and to anchor Mets stacks in DFS line-ups that lean on right-handed power.

Lonte Smith labeled Friday a perfect ‘get-right’ spot for the Mets and is comfortable laying –1.5 (even –2.5 at plus money). Colorado’s road OPS versus lefties is south of .600, and Freeland’s road ERA is still a bloated 5.48 despite being ‘better’ away from Coors. Peterson’s only red flag is walks, but the free-swinging Rockies rank bottom-five in BB%. New York may be batting just .225 over its last ten, yet Lonte expects positive regression against a pitcher giving up 1.4 HR/9 and a bullpen with the league’s worst LOB rate. His blueprint: Peterson works six solid, Mets plate five-plus, and a rested pen slams the door for an easy multi-run win.

Scott Reichel advised playing over 7.5/8 in Rockies-Mets. Both starters are southpaws, and a 7-mph breeze is blowing out to left—perfect for right-handed power in Citi Field’s friendlier dimensions. Rockies lefty Kyle Freeland is 0-7 with an 8-run implosion at Yankee Stadium last week, while Mets lefty David Peterson has been steady (two earned in three straight) but rarely dominant. Reichel expects New York’s slumping offense to pop against a pitcher allowing a .317 average and 43% hard-hit rate. He also sees Colorado’s right-handed bats capable of lofting a couple fly-ball homers into the wind. Projection: Mets 6, Rockies 3, with double-digit runs live by the seventh.

As a bonus play, Harrelson suggested taking Francisco Lindor under 1.5 total bases. Lindor has failed to reach two bases in 8 of his last 10 and 13 of his last 20 (65%). He is under in 53% of his games this season and has come up short in 7 of his last 8 at Citi Field. The switch-hitter’s splits dip to a .241 average versus left-handers, and he owns a stunning 0-for-8 career line against Friday’s starter Kyle Freeland. Books are shading to the under, reinforcing Harrelson’s stance that Lindor is unlikely to do major damage in this matchup.

Harrelson recommended betting Starling Marte NOT to score a run (under 0.5). Marte has been held scoreless in 9 of his last 10 games and 16 of his last 20 (80%). On the season he has crossed the plate in only 7 of 35 contests, also an 80% miss rate. He averages just 3.1 plate appearances per game and owns a .200 career average (2-for-10) versus Friday’s opposing starter, lefty Kyle Freeland. Marte’s splits drop to .222 AVG against southpaws this year compared to .225 vs righties. Sportsbooks such as DraftKings and Sleeper are pricing the under as the favorite. With a cold bat, limited opportunities, and a tough left-handed matchup, Harrelson expects another goose egg in the runs column.

LM Tipster bet Mets ‑1.5 because David Peterson (3-2, 2.79 ERA) draws MLB’s worst road lineup. Kyle Freeland (0-7, 5.86 ERA) has been torched for a .938 OPS away from Coors. New York is 14-5 when favored by ‑150 or more, and their bullpen’s 29.4% K-rate since May 15 seals the wager.

LM Tipster is on Francisco Lindor to homer. Lindor has four bombs in 32 career plate appearances off soft-tossing lefties like Kyle Freeland. Citi Field’s weather calls for 11 mph out toward left, and Freeland’s 2.1 HR/9 on the road makes the +400 price attractive.

Shubham Soni made Pete Alonso his No. 1 prop of the slate, grabbing +300 for a home run against left-hander Kyle Freeland. Alonso is slashing .290/.364/.580 with 11 homers and 43 RBI and has gone deep twice in his last four contests. Freeland enters 0-7 with a 5.86 ERA, surrendering a .551 SLG and 2.1 HR/9 to right-handed bats, thanks in part to an 89 mph average exit velocity allowed—the worst mark of his career. Soni highlighted Alonso’s 46% pull rate and Citi Field’s favorable left-field jet stream as perfect complements to Freeland’s sinker that leaks arm-side and up. With the Mets projected for nearly five runs, Soni believes the Polar Bear is primed to clear the fence again.

Caleb Wilfinger laid the -1.5 run line with the Mets at -148, arguing Colorado is a dream fade. The Rockies own MLB’s worst record away from Coors Field (3-25) and rank dead last in staff ERA (5.55) while surrendering a steady stream of home runs. Wilfinger trusts David Peterson’s recent form—2.79 ERA on the year and just 3 earned runs allowed over 13.2 innings against the Yankees and Dodgers—as a major class drop versus Colorado’s weak lineup. Given New York’s stronger lineup and bullpen edge, he expects the Mets to take a multi-run lead into the ninth and cash the run line.