Dylan Rockford advised laying whatever price the books post on San Francisco and even taking the run line because Logan Webb is back on the Oracle Park mound. Rockford reminded listeners that Webb owns a microscopic 0.64 ERA at home this season—just two earned runs across four starts—with the Giants 3-1 in those outings. He added that San Francisco’s lineup is batting .256 in its own park and should feast on Kansas City’s probable starter, minor-league call-up Lenny Avila (or even Cole Ragans if the Royals shuffle plans). Rockford sees no reliable offense on the visiting side and projected the Giants north of –200, calling any cheaper number a gift.

Heliot Ramos is a perfect 3-for-3 lifetime against Michael Wacha and has collected a hit in nine of his last 10 games. The tout flagged him as an under-the-radar hit prop play.

Jonathan India owns a .400 average (4-for-10, 1 HR) off Logan Webb and has recorded a knock in 15 of his past 19 games, prompting the tout to circle his hit prop.

Data Skrive projected a 4-3 final and advised taking the under on the 7.5-run total. Their write-up highlighted that Kansas City is scoring only 2.3 runs per game across its last 10 while San Francisco is at 4.2. Both clubs are also trending under—Kansas City games have finished below the total in seven of the past 10, and San Francisco has stayed under in six of the last 10. The Giants’ staff owns a 3.09 ERA in that window, and Oracle Park remains one of the league’s most pitcher-friendly venues, further supporting an under wager.

Data Skrive projected San Francisco to win 4-3 and assigned the Giants a 58% win probability, slightly higher than the 57.6% implied by the -136 moneyline. They pointed to San Francisco’s 19-10 record as a favorite this season (16-5 when priced at -136 or shorter) and a sturdy 3.09 team ERA over the last 10 games. Kansas City, meanwhile, has dropped four of its last seven when priced at +115 or longer and is averaging just 2.3 runs over its past 10 contests. With Daniel Lynch opposing Jordan Hicks and the Giants’ bullpen sporting an 8.2 K/9 in that same span, the model saw enough edge to recommend laying the short juice on the home side.

Perrault played the full-game under 7.5, citing several converging angles: Royals road games are 16-7-1 to the under, Giants home games 15-10 to the under, and every contest on this six-game San Francisco homestand has cashed an under. Logan Webb’s home splits (0.64 ERA) anchor one side, while the Giants’ own sputtering offense has produced four straight unders. He projected something like 4-3 or 3-2 and noted an alternative Royals team-total under could be paired if books allow. Official wager: Under 7.5 at –115.

Matt Perrault said the No-Run-First-Inning is still worth laying the juice in Royals-Giants. His logic: (1) Logan Webb owns a 0.64 ERA, .208 opponent average and just two earned runs allowed in 28.1 home innings, making a first-inning Giants run unlikely. (2) Kansas City has logged 12 straight Nerfies, including both games in this series. (3) San Francisco’s bats have been ice-cold on the homestand, scoring 3, 1, 3, 2 across the last four. Even without confirmation of the Royals’ opener, Perrault trusts the trend and Webb’s dominance at –138 to win one unit.

Whitchurch played OVER 1.5 walks for Michael Lorenzen at –180, projecting regression toward the veteran’s 8.5 % career BB% after a two-walk total across his last three starts. He emphasized that Lorenzen still handed out 13 free passes in six April outings and now faces San Francisco, the No. 3 lineup in walk rate versus righties (11.2 %). With Lorenzen’s zone rate down nearly three points year-over-year and the Giants rarely chasing, Collin expects the right-hander to revert to his usual two-plus passes.

Chris Ruffolo closed with a +750 dart on Wilmer Flores to leave the yard. Flores is 7-for-14 lifetime versus Michael Lorenzen with three home runs. Ruffolo highlighted that eight of Lorenzen’s nine homers allowed this season have come on the road, and Tuesday’s start is again away from Kansas City. Combine Lorenzen’s road-splits vulnerability with Flores’s perfect BvP résumé, and Ruffolo believes the payout is worth a shot.

Razzle prefers Lorenzen over Birdsong at Oracle Park. The right-hander has topped 20 DK points in three of his last five outings and benefits from a ballpark that suppresses power. Kansas City rarely strikes out, but San Francisco’s platoon-heavy lineup should feature enough lefties to align with Lorenzen’s splits. A modest 8-run total, 4.5 K-prop (under), and +180 Win odds keep him to GPPs, yet Razzle trusts his stability more than Birdsong’s uncertain pitch count.

Cash Out Sports Picks played the Giants on the moneyline, banking on their league-best bullpen (2.51 ERA, 0.98 WHIP last 10 days) to cover any Hayden Birdsong uncertainty. Kansas City’s offense has cratered to a .594 OPS and 63 wRC+ vs righties over the last 10 days, and its bullpen has a 4.55 ERA in that span. Wilmer Flores already owns three homers in 14 career at-bats vs Michael Lorenzen and has 10 bombs on the year, providing a matchup edge. Even if Birdsong exits early, San Francisco’s relief depth plus KC’s anemic bats give the Giants the advantage.

Boston advised taking San Francisco on the money line behind 22-year-old righty Hayden Birdsong in his first 2025 start. Birdsong posted a 2.11 ERA and 34% K-rate in multi-inning relief this year and throws a slider 42% of the time—bad news for a Kansas City lineup that grades 27th in run value versus sliders. Opposing starter Michael Lorenzen has allowed a .312 average and .507 slug to current Giant hitters across 71 plate appearances, and Boston pointed out Lorenzen’s swinging-strike rate has dipped below 8% for the first time since 2020. While conceding Birdsong could struggle with command, Boston still sees more paths to a Giants win, citing San Francisco’s superior OBP, a rested back-end bullpen, and Oracle Park’s marine layer keeping any Royals hard contact in the yard. He projected a 5-3 Giants victory and would play them down to ‑115.

Kenny g labeled the full-game Under 8 the ‘value side’ between the Royals and Giants. Michael Lorenzen (3-4, 3.76 ERA) has allowed three or fewer earned in four of his past five and hands the ball to a lights-out Kansas City bullpen sporting a 3.19 ERA. Offensively, the Royals are ice-cold—27th in runs, OBP and slugging, with two, zero and zero runs in their last three contests. San Francisco starts 23-year-old Hayden Birdsong, whose lone long-relief stint ended badly versus Arizona, but Kenny trusts MLB’s top bullpen behind him to yank the rookie quickly if needed. The Giants’ lineup has faded as well, putting up 3-1-9-0-2 in recent games and ranking 22nd in batting average, 17th in slugging. Trend support is strong: KC is 14-7-1 to the under on the road and San Francisco 13-10 to the under at Oracle Park. With two struggling offenses, a reliable KC pen and a quick hook for Birdsong, Kenny expects runs to be scarce and is betting the under at 8.

Malcom Bamford is on the Giants at –135, arguing Michael Lorenzen’s home/road disparity is too large to ignore. Lorenzen owns a 0.99 ERA in Kauffman but a 5.35 mark everywhere else, and this trip puts him in Oracle Park against a San Francisco club that is 16-8 at home and just one game out of first. Bamford expects only 3–4 innings from Birdsong but trusts a Giants bullpen carrying a 2.51 ERA and 1.04 WHIP to cover the rest. Given the Giants’ elite relief corps and Lorenzen’s travel woes, Bamford views the short home price as a clear buy.

Smith is taking a first-five stab at Kansas City around +140 with Hayden Birdsong making his first official start for San Francisco. He does not trust Birdsong, whom he faded repeatedly last year, and expects the rookie to be held to a 60-pitch limit after functioning as a multi-inning reliever. Michael Lorenzen has been quietly effective—4-1 over his last five turns with a 3.19 ERA—and the KC bullpen grades out above average in leverage spots. With both offenses inconsistent, Smith believes the early matchup tilt toward Lorenzen plus the attractive number make the Royals a buy.

Malcom Bamford recommended grabbing San Francisco in the NL West futures market while books are still hanging ‘nice prices.’ He explained that a preseason “light-bulb moment” led him to bet the Giants to win both the division and the World Series because the roster is built for October: a deep swing-and-miss bullpen, an above-average defense and veteran hitters who grind counts. Bamford emphasized that with the Dodgers, Padres and Diamondbacks beating up on each other, the race is likely to stay compact, so a ticket on the Giants gives bettors a live ‘puncher’s chance’ once the dog days of August arrive.

John Venezia said Justin Verlander should be scooped off waivers even as a back-end fantasy starter. The Giants right-hander owns a 4.31 ERA and 1.35 WHIP with 40 strikeouts and 16 walks over 48 innings, but Venezia pointed out that Verlander has logged four quality starts in his last five turns. The big reason is a resurgent slider that carries a 32.7% whiff rate, its highest mark in the past three seasons. Because he is rostered in only 36% of Yahoo leagues, Venezia views Verlander as an under-owned veteran who can stabilize ratios while adding strikeout upside as the slider continues to miss bats.

Matt Perrault laid –125 on the Royals team-total under 3.5 runs. His logic: Kansas City has failed to clear 3.5 in five straight, posting 1-3-3-0-2 runs since their seven-run outburst against Houston. The matchup gets even worse because they face Robbie Ray, who is 6-0 with a 3.04 ERA overall and a 2.32 ERA at Oracle Park while holding opponents to a .213 average. San Francisco is 6-0 in Ray starts and he has surrendered only eight earned runs in 31 home innings. Perrault expects the combination of Ray’s dominance and the Royals opening a West-Coast road trip to keep KC at three or fewer yet again.

Just A Bet Outside recommended the Royals team total under 3.5 at –115. The handicap centers on Robbie Ray’s current groove: the left-hander has surrendered only five earned runs and 15 hits across his previous four starts (25 IP) while registering 8-plus strikeouts in three of those outings. Even when Ray allowed three runs to an elite Arizona lineup last time out, hard contact was limited. His combination of a 31% whiff rate and a low opponents’ batting average (.211) makes stringing hits together difficult, a profile that dovetails with San Francisco’s spacious Oracle Park. Kansas City’s offense has cooled, posting a .299 road wOBA in May, and their 21.1% K-rate vs lefties means fewer productive balls in play against a walk-prone but elusive Ray. The tout also pointed out that San Francisco’s bullpen enters with a 3.42 ERA over the last two weeks, giving little room for late scoring. With cool Bay Area weather and a total of only seven, he prefers isolating the Royals’ ceiling under 3.5 runs for a half-unit.

Kosty Safir said to lay the short price with the San Francisco Giants (about –125) in Monday’s series opener. His case hinged on a pronounced lefty-lefty split: the Royals average barely two runs per game and hit right around .200 against southpaws on the road, while the Giants have excelled both at Oracle Park and specifically versus left-handed pitching. With ace Robbie Ray posting a "phenomenal year" for San Francisco and Chris Bubich dealing for Kansas City, Safir expects a close, low-scoring contest but still projects a 4-2 Giants win that comfortably clears the money-line price.

Cash Out Sports Picks laid out a case for backing the Giants outright versus Kansas City. San Francisco’s lineup is crushing lefties lately (145 WRC+ and .880 OPS last 10 days), while the Royals have scuffled to a 73 WRC+ versus southpaws over that same span. In the bullpen comparison, KC carries a 4.91 ERA and 1.25 WHIP across 25.2 recent innings; SF’s relievers sport a 3.16 ERA and 1.13 WHIP over the identical workload. Although Chris Bubich (5th-best ERA league-wide) and Robbie Ray (tied for MLB lead with six wins) both enter hot, the tout preferred the club with the hotter bats, sharper pen, and recent 4-1 run – landing on the Giants moneyline.

Perrault also grabbed the Giants moneyline at –118, banking on Robbie Ray to keep his personal and team winning streak alive. Ray owns a perfect 6-0 record and has been even better at home (2.32 ERA, .213 BAA). San Francisco has won every game he has started thanks to both his length and a bullpen that has protected leads. Facing a Royals lineup that has scored two runs or fewer in four of its last five, Perrault projects a 4-3 Giants victory and sees value at anything south of –120.

Just A Bet Outside said Robbie Ray’s strikeout prop deserves an over look against Kansas City. The Royals have only the 20th-highest K-rate versus left-handed pitching over the past three weeks (21.1%), but Ray’s individual form is carrying the play: he has logged 8-plus punch-outs in four of his last six starts and owns a 26.4% season-long K-rate. The host noted that Ray’s stuff has ticked up after an early-season velo dip, generating the second-highest swinging-strike rate on Monday’s slate. Ray’s one bugaboo remains walks (12% BB%), yet the Royals rank bottom-10 in walk percentage against southpaws, reducing the risk of pitch-count blow-ups. With Oracle Park suppressing power and Kansas City posting just a .301 wOBA on the road, the tout expects Ray to work deep enough to clear most posted totals and even suggested a K-ladder for plus money.