Guy Boston suggested betting the Yankees team total over rather than a full game over because of their recent offensive consistency. He cited the Yankees scoring at least nine runs in each of their previous three contests (9, 9, 10 runs). Despite Pittsburgh consistently scoring four runs in recent games, he felt the safer play was isolating the Yankees offense by targeting their team total over 4.5 runs, rather than trusting both teams to contribute enough to clear the full-game total of nine.

Guy Boston recommended betting on Pablo Reyes under 1.5 hits, runs, and RBIs against Pittsburgh, citing Reyes' extremely limited production and struggles with fastballs. Reyes batted only .183 last season and has faced difficulty early in 2025. Pittsburgh pitcher Andrew Heaney is especially effective against right-handed batters, throwing fastballs over 50% of the time. Reyes' strikeout rate spikes to 35.7% and his weighted on-base average (wOBA) plunges to just .189 against fastballs. Given this matchup, Guy Boston saw betting Reyes under 1.5 H/R/RBI as strong value, despite the juice ranging from -150 to -160.

Bettor Mark advises leaning towards Yankees team total over due to their dominance facing left-handed pitchers. Even though Pittsburgh pitcher Andrew Heaney is off to a hot start with a 1.80 ERA, Mark points to Yankees' elite offense, batting .299 collectively (second-best MLB) and leading the league in home runs. Conversely, he highlights the Pirates' struggling offense (batting .198, 26th MLB), raising doubt they'll score enough runs. While he refrains from officially betting the full-game total (set at 9), he suggests Yankees team total or run line (-108) as the appropriate angles.

Brad Francis recommended betting the Yankees to cover the run line against the Pirates, citing a significant trend where Pittsburgh has failed to cover the run line at home in eight consecutive games against AL East opponents. Additionally, Brad expressed strong doubt in Pirates' pitcher Andrew Heaney despite a decent first start, labeling him as a consistent fade from the previous season who's expected to remain unreliable in the current campaign. Given this pitching weakness and Pittsburgh's continued struggles in these situations, he is confident in taking the Yankees on the run line.

Cash Out Sports Picks recommends betting on the Yankees money line to complete their sweep against the Pirates. The Yankees scored 19 runs in the first two games of the series, showing relentless offense, and have outscored opponents 28-15 over their last four, supported by contributions from throughout their lineup including Trent Grisham's key performance in game two. Yankees pitcher Warren pitched five strong innings with just one hit allowed in his recent start versus Arizona. With the Pirates struggling offensively and facing Warren, who pitched very well recently, Yankees appear poised for another win.

JD Bets prefers betting the Yankees moneyline against the Pirates, citing Will Warren's promising debut performance against Arizona, allowing just one hit over five innings. Additionally, he notes the Yankees' offense is sizzling after scoring 10 runs the day before. By comparison, Pirates starter Andrew Heaney's solid outing came against Miami, a weak-hitting lineup according to JD. Therefore, JD sees the clear offensive and pitching advantage favoring New York, recommending a moneyline wager.

Dimers' analysis from 10,000 simulations favors the Pittsburgh Pirates covering the (+1.5) run line against the Yankees, assigning a 57% probability to that outcome. The reasoning is constructed from advanced statistical modeling, predicting a close matchup between the two teams. This data-driven analysis gives confidence that the Pirates are a value pick on the run line at the current odds of -118, making it their highly recommended best bet for this specific game.

Kyle Purviance advised betting on Oneil Cruz to hit a home run against Marcus Stroman, specifically highlighting Cruz's exceptional exit velocity against slower-velocity fastballs. Purviance called Stroman a 'meatballer,' vulnerable at the beginning of games before settling down, enhancing Cruz's likelihood to capitalize early. He explicitly mentioned betting Cruz to hit a home run at long odds (13 to 1) for his first plate appearance and anticipated a roughly +400 payout for Cruz hitting a home run at any point during the full game.

Dylan Rockford highlighted the Yankees' strong matchup against the Pirates and their inconsistency so far this season, specifically noting that Pittsburgh predominantly finds success only when Paul Skenes is pitching. With Skenes out of the rotation for this game and the Yankees offense thriving—especially against left-handers (.314 average)—Rockford recommended taking advantage of the Yankees run line at +114 odds. Although he's not bullish on Marcus Stroman, he feels confident enough aligning with the Yankees potent lineup to cover the run line in this matchup.

Dylan Rockford is down on Bailey Falter heading into his matchup against the Yankees. Despite Falter coming off a good outing against the Marlins, Rockford doesn't see a repeat performance here due to New York's strong success against lefties, hitting .314 on the season. Falter is set up poorly facing the Yankees offense, which recently woke up with nine runs scored in one game and continues to look sharp offensively. Rockford suggests exploiting this mismatch by playing the Yankees either on the run line at plus 114 or the money line at minus 142. He also likes the over (8.5) given the pitching matchup and sees strong potential for runs.

Kenny G strongly recommends betting on the Yankees at -150 against the struggling Pirates. He sees exceptional value, believing the line should be closer to -180 considering Pittsburgh's offensive struggles (ranked in MLB's bottom five offensively), contrasted with the Yankees hot offense led by Aaron Judge (batting .380 with 6 HR and 17 RBIs). Although Pirates starter Bailey Falter has pitched decently this season, Kenny believes facing an elite offensive team like the Yankees is significantly more challenging. Despite a chalky line, Kenny still sees clear betting value backing the Yankees in this spot.

Bettor Mark feels confident that the Yankees offense will remain productive against Pirates starter Bailey Falter. Although finding minus 160 too pricey for an official bet, Mark suggested the Yankees run line at minus 105 as viable for interested bettors. He acknowledged Marcus Stroman's mediocre start for the Yankees but emphasized that the Yankees have enough offensive momentum to keep hitting regardless, making New York the clear side he prefers here.

Richard Louis highlighted Jasson Dominguez as a strong option to go over 0.5 hits at -210 odds facing Pirates' pitcher Bailey Falter. Dominguez has started well in 2025, hitting .292 with seven total hits and coming off a 2-for-4 performance in Friday's opener against Pittsburgh that included two RBIs and a double. He's recorded multiple hits in three straight games. Falter has struggled early, surrendering seven hits in his first start against Miami Marlins. Those factors make Dominguez's single hit prop a highly compelling bet for Saturday's matchup.

Richard Louis advised targeting Aaron Judge to collect at least one RBI in the Yankees matchup with the Pirates at -115 odds. Judge has begun the season in dominant form, leading MLB with 17 RBI and six home runs through only seven games. He produced two RBIs against the Pirates in the series opener on Friday and has recorded at least one RBI in four of seven contests this year. Judge has historically excelled versus Pittsburgh too, totaling 15 hits and 10 RBI against the Pirates, making this RBI prop especially attractive against Pittsburgh's pitching staff, currently ranked seventh-worst in runs allowed across MLB.

Richard Louis recommended placing a bet on the Pirates at +140 in their matchup against the Yankees on April 5. Louis referenced SportsLine's model projection, which forecasts 4.5 runs for Pittsburgh offense against Yankees pitcher Marcus Stroman, who struggled last season with a high 1.47 WHIP and started slow this year giving up three earned runs in just 4.2 innings during his first start. Despite being sizable underdogs, the model sees substantial value in Pittsburgh and gives them a 42% chance of winning, justifying the Pirates as a smart betting play at plus-money odds.

Cash Out Sports Picks advises bettors to back the Yankees moneyline against Pittsburgh Pirates, pointing to the Yankees exceptional hitting performance this year. New York leads the league in home runs, OPS, slugging percentage, and runs per game (averaging 8.8). They will face Pirates left-hander Bailey Falter, whose recent outings have been modest at best. Additionally, the Pirates enter this matchup batting just .204 on the season, making it unlikely they will keep pace with the Yankees' explosive offense. Given the Yankees' dominance against left-handed pitching—their average jumping to .310 this year versus .235 last season—New York is strongly favored to win this contest.

Jason Fragomeni recommends taking the Yankees money line (-155) against the Pirates based on significant offensive advantages. The Yankees are currently the MLB leaders in home runs (23), OPS (.997), slugging percentage (.621), and runs per game (8.8), making it challenging for opposing pitchers. The Pirates are sending left-hander Bailey Falter, who had an average outing against the Marlins (2 earned runs in 6 innings), but faces a difficult task slowing down a Yankees lineup that has destroyed left-handed pitching this season, hitting .310 compared to .235 last season. Additionally, Marcus Stroman starts for the Yankees, coming off a short outing but benefits from facing a Pirates team batting just .204 this season. Given these points, Fragomeni sees strong value in backing the Yankees to secure another victory in game two of the series.

Data Skrive recommended Aaron Judge for both DFS competitions and his home run prop market (+200) in Saturday's game against the Pirates. Judge has blistered an MLB-leading 6 home runs through just 7 games in 2025, homering in 57.1% of his appearances. Judge's potent early season hitting makes his relatively short odds justifiable, and DFS managers could benefit significantly from his consistent slugging production.

ESPN Fantasy advised avoiding starting Mitch Keller in daily fantasy formats on Friday as he faces a potentially powerful Yankees lineup. Despite playing in a pitcher-friendly home park in Pittsburgh, the matchup presents significant risk due to the Yankees' strong lineup power and ability to hit home runs. Fantasy managers with limits on game starts should look to more favorable matchups.

Data Skrive points out Austin Wells from the Yankees as an underrated but valuable bet to hit a home run, with odds at +800. Wells has flashed significant power early this season, homering twice in 5 games (40% homering rate). His hot start combined with juicy odds makes Wells an intriguing target against Pittsburgh's pitching staff.

Mal Bamford endorsed backing the Yankees moneyline with Max Fried on the mound due to Fried's outstanding recent history pitching in Pittsburgh—14 innings without an earned run over two starts. He emphasized Fried’s solid road performances last season, confidence in Pittsburgh's underwhelming offense (19 runs in seven games against weak competition), and Keller’s average pitching. Given these factors at a reasonable price (-148), he strongly recommends betting on the Yankees to secure a win in this spot.

Dylan Rockford recommends betting the Yankees' team total over against the Pittsburgh Pirates. Despite being cautious about Yankees starter Max Fried, Rockford primarily targeted the Pirates bullpen, characterizing them as unreliable and apt to surrender plenty of late runs. He argued Mitch Keller could offer some resistance early, but once out of the game, Pittsburgh's bullpen would likely yield runs, ensuring Yankees team total over was a strong betting value.

Cash Out Sports Picks advised taking the Yankees money line against the Pittsburgh Pirates due to clear offensive advantages. They noted New York's powerful offense averaging nearly nine runs a game, while Pittsburgh struggled offensively out of the gate. They also highlighted Pirates starter Mitch Keller's historical struggles against this Yankees lineup, previously giving up two home runs and four earned runs. The absence of Pittsburgh's ace Paul Skenes in this series further strengthens the Yankees' outlook, making them the clear preferred side according to Cash Out Sports Picks.

Data Skrive highlights Anthony Volpe as a quietly potent home run threat, available at outstanding +900 odds. Volpe has shown remarkable pop, slugging 4 home runs in just 6 games (66.7% homering rate) so far this season. Given Volpe's blazing hot start and appealing odds, he's seen as tremendous betting value against Pittsburgh pitching.

According to Data Skrive, Aaron Judge remains the clear betting favorite in home run props at odds of +230. The Yankees slugger has lived up to expectations so far, blasting 5 homers in just 6 games for an impressive 50% home run rate. This domination makes Judge an obvious but justified betting play against Pittsburgh pitching.

The Yankees, sporting a solid 4-2 record, are clearly favored with a -163 moneyline for their game against the Pirates (+138). Data Skrive's projections strongly indicate that betting the Yankees' moneyline is valuable. The computer also suggests expecting offense in this matchup, predicting the total to surpass 8 runs.