Peterson bet Over 7.5 (model 8.2). Cleveland’s Luis Ortiz carries a 5.30 ERA and 4.6 BB/9, while Zack Wheeler is allowing an uncharacteristic 1.4 HR/9. Philadelphia’s bullpen has been a mess (4.74 ERA, 23rd). With both starters showing long-ball or control issues and shaky relief behind them, Peterson expects at least eight runs.

B Wade recommended Alec Bohm to record a single at even money, calling it a "no-brainer" given Bohm has produced a single in 15 of his last 20 games (75%) and in six straight. Bohm sat Saturday, giving him a rest-day freshness bump for Sunday’s matchup. Wade emphasized that any prop priced near +100 with a 3-of-4 hit probability is an auto-click in his model. He paired Bohm with the Salvador Perez total-bases play in a Better two-leg entry that pays 3x, reminding listeners Better also drops daily discounted props that can juice ROI further.

B Wade said Trea Turner is a smash play to record a single at nearly even money. Turner has logged a base hit in nine straight contests, piling up 14 singles in that span, and has failed to record a single in only four of his past 20 games (80% hit rate). Sunday he draws Luis Ortiz, whose 5.01 ERA and 1.40 WHIP scream traffic on the bases. Turner owns a 2-for-6 career line off Ortiz and still bats .299 versus right-handers despite a .318 overall average, reinforcing the floor. Wade framed it as a volume bet: with Turner's recent contact streak and a struggling opposing starter, getting an 80% outcome at even odds is "insane value" for player-prop bettors.

Guy Boston talked himself into the Phillies’ team total over 4.0 runs (–120 or better). He respects Tanner Bibee’s talent, but pointed out the right-hander’s two clear weaknesses: a 10-point drop in whiff rate against right-handed hitters and below-average chase percentage (26th percentile), both of which feed directly into a Philly lineup that punishes mistakes and rarely expands the zone. Philadelphia has scored 4+ runs in 63% of its games this season and is averaging 5.7 runs over its last 10. Boston highlighted the right-handed core—Trea Turner (.342 xBA vs four-seamers), Nick Castellanos (122 wRC+ last two weeks) and J.T. Realmuto (.521 xSLG vs cutters)—as prime candidates to cash in. He refused to back Ranger Suarez laying chalk, so the stand-alone team total lets him fade Bibee while staying clear of the Phillies’ shaky starter.

Zola advised giving Ranger Suarez another shot after the left-hander was rocked for 7 ER in 3.2 IP against Arizona earlier in the week. He pointed out Suarez still fanned six in that start and now faces a Guardians lineup with a 24.5% K-rate versus southpaws. Progressive Field plays neutral for power, and Suarez’s projected line (5.7 IP, 2.6 ER, 5.6 K, 51% win odds) lands him inside the top-15 Saturday SPs in ESPN formats.

Kenny G grabbed Cleveland at +105, fading Ranger Suarez after the lefty was torched for seven earned in 3⅔ during his first start back. Philadelphia’s bullpen remains a liability, and the lineup just got blanked 6-0, lowering confidence despite ranking 4th in average. The Guardians, winners of three straight, send Tanner Bibee (3-2, 4.26 ERA) who has allowed two or fewer earned in four of his last five and is supported by a 3.72 bullpen ERA. Offensively Cleveland has erupted for 6,8,9,9,5 runs over its last five with Jose Ramirez and Steven Kwan heating up. They are 11-5 at home while the Phillies sit 8-9 on the road (11-6 to the under, indicating run-prevention travel well). Kenny trusts Bibee and the steadier relief corps to outduel the erratic Suarez at plus money.

Lonte Smith argued the moneyline should be flipped to Cleveland –115, not Philadelphia –115. Rookie Tanner Bybee has been lights-out at Progressive Field with a 1.53 home ERA and three straight quality starts. Ranger Suarez surrendered seven runs in 3.2 innings in his lone 2025 appearance and now faces a Guardians lineup that has climbed into the top-10 in wRC+ over the past week. Philadelphia’s offense is scorching—seven-plus runs in five straight—but Lonte trusts Bybee’s strike-throwing (5.0% walk rate at home) and the Guardians’ league-best bullpen (2.91 ERA) to keep them in check. He still likes Over 7.5 because of Suarez’s rust and hot bats on both sides, yet views Cleveland’s combination of home dominance (14-6) and pitching edge as worth backing at plus money.

It's The Final Round recommended using Steven Kwan’s hit prop – or pairing it with Ramirez in a two-leg parlay – against Ranger Suarez. Suarez throws his sinker roughly 50 % to lefties; Kwan is batting .417 (5-for-12) versus left-handed sinkers this year while Suarez has surrendered a .333 AVG on the pitch. Kwan owns a .333 AVG against curves (5-for-15 over the last two seasons) and will also see the change-up, a pitch Suarez allowed a 1.000 AVG on the lone left-handed swing against him. Historically, Kwan is 1-for-3 off Suarez and has logged a hit in 22 of his last 26 games. His 41.2 % launch-angle sweet-spot rate ranks 20th in MLB, matching well with Suarez’s poor 41.7 % sweet-spot allowed. The tout concluded Kwan is one of the safest ways to attack Suarez on Saturday.

Martin took Philadelphia at the short -110 price even with Ranger Suarez making just his second start of the year. He argued Suarez’s rehab velocity looked normal and his lone rough outing came against a potent Arizona lineup. Cleveland counters with Tanner Bibee, whose surface 4.20 ERA masks an inflated 6+ FIP and a shaky 28-to-16 K:BB ratio. Guardians hitters have struggled versus lefties, and Martin believes the hotter Phillies lineup plus bullpen edge justify the pick, calling the number “short” for the matchup.

Cash Out Sports Picks recommended betting the full-game OVER when Cleveland hosts Philadelphia. He acknowledged that every Guardians–Phillies meeting stayed under last season but argued the environment is completely different now. Both offenses are scorching: Cleveland has plated 42 runs across its last six contests, reaching at least five in each, while Philadelphia has scored seven or more in five straight and eight of its past nine. Starting pitchers look vulnerable. Ranger Suarez makes only his second appearance after back stiffness and was tagged for seven runs in 3.2 innings his first time out. Tanner Bibee owns a 4.26 ERA and has been bailed out by run support rather than dominance. With Suarez’s command in question, Bibee allowing a .240 opponent average, and neither bullpen ranking inside MLB’s top half in ERA, the tout projected run support to continue on both sides and expects the total to clear comfortably.

Cash Out Sports Picks sided with Cleveland on the money line. The Guardians are 12-5 at home and have won eight of their last ten. Rookie Tanner Bibee owns a 1.53 ERA at Progressive Field, allowing just three earned over 17.2 home innings, while Ranger Suarez has made only one 2025 appearance and was torched for seven runs in 3.2 frames. Cleveland’s offense is on fire—42 runs in its last six games, all on the road—and now returns home with momentum. Coming off a shutout of Philadelphia and carrying both pitching and hitting advantages, the Guardians are the play.

Greg Peterson bet Over 7.5 (model 8.3) because both starters are trending the wrong way. Since the 2024 All-Star break, Ranger Suarez owns a 5.65 ERA and was rocked for seven earned in 3.2 IP in his 2025 debut. Tanner Bibee’s strikeout rate is down to 6.6 K/9 while he’s giving up 2.1 HR/9, producing a 4.26 ERA and a bloated 6.13 FIP. With two volatile bullpens behind them, Peterson expects enough crooked numbers to clear a low total.

Joe Jensen said the Guardians are worth a money-line stab at +115 because nearly every indicator tilts Cleveland’s way. The Guardians have won six straight and are 12-5 at Progressive Field, while the Phillies limp in on a three-game skid and sit just 9-10 on the road. Starting pitching is the key angle: Ranger Suarez owns an 0-5 record and 8.10 ERA over his last five outings, averaging only four innings per start and giving up seven earned in his most recent turn. On the flip side, Tanner Bibee sports a sparkling 1.43 ERA at home and is coming off a win in Toronto. Cleveland’s bullpen (3.72 ERA) has also outperformed Philadelphia’s relief corps (4.74 ERA). Add in the Guardians’ recent success as underdogs (4 outright wins in their last 5 plus-money spots) and an offense that’s cashed the Over in 8 of 10, and Jensen believes the +115 price is mis-hung. He expects Cleveland to stretch the streak to seven with Bibee handling five solid frames and the pen slamming the door.

MacPherson highlighted the Phillies as a leverage stack (5.1% DK top-stack rate) against Gavin Williams. The Guardians’ right-hander sports a 6.16 ERA/6.14 FIP over his last four outings thanks to 10.9 K/9 offset by 6.2 BB/9 and 2.4 HR/9. Current Phillies have only 20 combined ABs against him, giving Williams early-trip surprise, but MacPherson expects the second time through the order to be a problem. Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber headline, with speed threats Trea Turner (8 SB) and Bryson Stott (7 SB) adding stolen-base equity. Harper already has six steals after swiping just six all of last year, further boosting DFS ceiling. Philadelphia’s mix of power, speed and modest ownership makes them MacPherson’s favorite non-Coors pivot.

Kenny G hopped on the Phillies at −120, citing Aaron Nola’s apparent turnaround—six shutout innings with eight Ks against Arizona followed by a quality start versus the Cubs—as well as Philadelphia’s offense erupting for 7-plus runs in four straight. He is fading Cleveland rookie Gavin Williams (5.06 ERA, five walks in his last outing) whose control issues are magnified against a patient lineup ranked 3rd in OBP and 10th in slugging. The Guardians’ bats have scored 8-plus in three straight but still sit below league average in OBP and AVG, leading Kenny to call the outburst "due for regression." With Cleveland’s bullpen middling (3.83 ERA) and Philadelphia’s lineup locked in—Trea Turner red-hot—he expects the Phils to capitalize on every free pass and sees −120 as a cheap price.

Lonte Smith matched Reichel’s stance but formalized a bankroll plan: 75% on Phillies −130 and 25% on −1.5 runs. He rattled off Philadelphia’s eye-opening last ten—.289 team average, 6.4 runs per nine, staff ERA 2.62—then contrasted it with Gavin Williams’ six combined innings, nine earned, and 10 walks across his two most recent starts. Smith believes Williams’ fastball command issues are tailor-made for a patient Phillies lineup that sits top-5 in walk rate. With Nola’s curve clicking again and Cleveland’s offense middling (league-average wOBA), he pegged a 5-2 final and sees plus-money value on the alternate run line.

Scott Reichel laid −130 on Philadelphia, insisting Aaron Nola’s rough April is ancient history. The right-hander has spun 13 scoreless frames across his last two outings and enters with his curveball generating a 38% whiff rate. Cleveland counters with Gavin Williams, whom Reichel labeled "up-and-down" after the rookie issued 15 walks in five starts and coughed up five long balls in his last four. Reichel also noted Philly’s offense is on a heater—seven or more runs in four straight, 6.4 per game over the last ten—while the Guardians’ lineup still ranks bottom-third in ISO. He expects the Phillies to win comfortably and sprinkled the −1.5 run line.

Lindquist called Phillies –120 a head-scratcher given the gulf between Aaron Nola and Guardians rookie Gavin Williams. Nola owns a 26 % K-rate, 7.5 % walk rate, and .334 xwOBA; Williams checks in at .382 xwOBA, .294 xBA, and an 11.1 % barrel rate while striking out fewer hitters. Williams will also have to navigate four dangerous Philly lefties—Kyle Schwarber, Bryce Harper, Bryson Stott, and Brandon Marsh—in a park that boosts left-handed power similar to Citizens Bank. Even with Jose Alvarado used Thursday, Lindquist is comfortable backing the deeper Phillies bullpen and labeled the money line his most straightforward MLB wager of the card.

Chris Vasile recommended laying the -125 with Philadelphia because the Phillies’ league-leading offense (131 wRC+) draws a Guardians starter sporting an ERA north of 5.00 and a .357 expected wOBA against. Vasile expects the hot bats that just hung 18 runs in their last two games to stay in attack mode. On the mound, Aaron Nola has posted back-to-back gems (15 IP, 2 ER, 17 K, 1 BB) and Vasile believes the veteran will secure his second win in as many turns given Cleveland’s 28th-ranked hard-hit rate and bottom-five slugging percentage versus righties. With both a lineup edge and the better form pitcher, Vasile sees clear betting value on the Phillies moneyline.

Cash Out Sports Picks also played the over on the game total. He pointed to identical trend lines: Cleveland has topped the number in five straight, and Philadelphia has done so in three of its last four. While Nola has given up only a single run over his past two outings, the tout warned that expecting another near-shutout is unrealistic. Gavin Williams has worked just six total innings in his last two starts, setting the stage for a taxed Guardians bullpen. With Williams' 1.47 WHIP, the Phillies' ability to punish mistakes, and Cleveland's own quietly productive lineup, he projects a medium-high scoring script—something between a pitchers' duel and a slugfest—making the over the smarter wager.

Cash Out Sports Picks laid the juice with Philadelphia on the money line, stressing the pitching mismatch. Cleveland rookie Gavin Williams has been wild and hittable, surrendering 37 knocks, 18 earned runs, and 19 walks in only 32 innings, so a power-centric Phillies lineup is likely to cash in on all those extra base-runners. On the flip side, former All-Star Aaron Nola (referred to in the clip as Noah) is trending up: across his last 13 frames he has scattered just seven hits and one run while finally picking up his first win of 2025. Both clubs are hot—Cleveland has taken seven of nine—but the analyst argued the "better arm on the mound" breaks the tie. He noted that bettors rarely see Nola at this modest price, making Philadelphia the value side despite playing on the road.

Welsh suggested pairing a Skenes ticket with Zack Wheeler at 11-to-1 as a hedge in the NL Cy Young race. Wheeler’s surface stats—3.35 ERA, three wins, one loss through eight starts—mask a dominant profile: a 2.36 xERA, .198 expected batting average against, and an 11.0 K/9 on a Phillies club that should supply ample run support. Welsh argued that if bettors like to ‘buy out’ later, Wheeler’s combination of elite peripherals and team context makes him the logical secondary position. Should the win column catch up to the underlying metrics, his odds could quickly shorten into the +400 range, giving hedge-focused gamblers flexibility down the stretch.

Noblin advised betting Philadelphia at the opener of -126, banking on Aaron Nola getting the start. If Nola is confirmed, he believes the fair price should be closer to -160 even on the road. His handicap leans on Philly’s explosive offense—six regulars carry expected batting averages above .262 and Kyle Schwarber is "mashing"—plus a stark starting-pitcher edge over rookie Gavin Williams. While Cleveland’s bullpen grades better, Noblin trusts Nola’s track record far more than Williams’ inconsistency and thinks the Phillies can build a lead big enough to mitigate that late-inning disparity. He’s been riding the Phillies all week and sees no reason to jump off with this favorable number.

B Wade locked in Alec Bohm to record a single at ‑125 because he has one in 63 % of 2025 games and in five straight overall. Bohm owns a 2-for-2 career mark versus Friday starter Gavin Williams, and righty/lefty splits are almost identical (.232 vs RHP, .237 overall), so handedness is not a concern. In his last 20 games Bohm has missed the single only five times, signaling improved form after a slow April. Wade loves the price relative to a generic hit prop and notes the same value concept he used with Turner.

B Wade argued Aaron Nola over 5.5 Ks at even money is mis-priced; he has topped that mark in 6 of 7 starts this year and all four road assignments. Dating to last season Nola has gone over in 9 of his last 10 starts and in seven straight away, averaging 6.5 punch-outs—right where Wade thinks the line should be. Cleveland ranks 20th in strikeout avoidance (10th-fewest), so they are not an elite contact unit. Given Nola’s form and workload, Wade expects another six-plus strikeout night before the market corrects to 6.5.

B Wade said Trea Turner is an easy bet to record a single at ‑125 because virtually all of his knocks are one-baggers. Turner has singled in 12 of his last 13 contests and in seven straight road games. Overall he owns a single in 66 % of 2025 games compared to a 74 % hit rate, so backing the single rather than the generic hit cuts the price in half (roughly ‑220 vs ‑125). The matchup also helps: Gavin Williams carries a 5.00+ ERA and 1.75 WHIP, and Turner’s already 1-for-3 off him. Even though Turner’s slash vs righties is .277 vs .307 overall, the consistent road single streak plus plus money payout makes this Wade’s favorite way to attack Friday’s Guardians matchup.

Peterson bet Over 7.5 (priced 8.1) because Aaron Nola carries a 4.61 ERA and has historically been worse outside Philly (career 4.22 road ERA). Guardians rookie Gavin Williams isn’t faring much better with a 5.06 ERA and 1.7 HR/9. Philadelphia’s bullpen ranks 25th (3.78 ERA) and Cleveland’s is only mediocre (14th, 3.83). With both starters giving up homers and neither relief unit dependable, Peterson expects fireworks and sees the market underrating the run-scoring environment.