Guy Boston recommends betting Cincinnati Reds on the first five innings moneyline today against Milwaukee to avoid bullpen uncertainties. He emphasizes Milwaukee's bullpen, which has been shaky and heavily taxed recently, compared to Cincinnati's fresher relief arms. This strategy looks wiser to him considering volatility in late-game pitching, preferring the shorter, safer first-five innings wager.

Guy Boston sees betting value playing under 1.5 hits, runs and RBIs for Spencer Steer today due to Steer's struggles against left-handed pitching. Although he's somewhat reluctant due to Nestor Cortes's disastrous first start (5 home runs allowed), he still identifies Steer's splits against lefties as highly problematic enough to lean unders here despite Cortes' recent struggles.

Guy Boston expects Cincinnati's offense to rebound from their recent struggles (shut out in back-to-back games) against Nestor Cortes today. He highlights Cortes' exceptionally poor first start against the Yankees, where he allowed five home runs, five walks and eight earned runs in only two innings. While acknowledging the Reds typically fare worse against lefties, Guy Boston points to Cortes' fastball-cutter pitch arsenal matching favorable for Cincinnati hitters who excel against velocity-driven pitchers.

Guy Boston expects a strong offensive performance from the Yankees, citing their momentum after a late rally yesterday, when they scored three runs in the bottom of the ninth inning despite otherwise quiet offensive production earlier in the game. Given the strength of their lineup overall, he anticipates this offense using that late-game momentum as a springboard today, ultimately liking the Yankees team total over.

Guy Boston sees Merrill Kelly potentially struggling today versus the Yankees given his significant difficulties against left-handed batters. He notes Kelly's vulnerability is particularly concerning given the Yankees' strong lefty hitters including Wells, Jasson Dominguez, Cody Bellinger, and Jazz Chisholm. Given Kelly's splits, this sets a solid stage for Yankees lefties to have an impactful game offensively.

Guy Boston suggests fading Matt Wallner, specifically targeting under 1.5 hits, runs, and RBIs or under 0.5 runs. His reasoning centers on Hunter Brown's fastball-heavy pitch mix, noting Wallner's weighted on-base average drops significantly against fastballs and sinkers. Although Wallner can handle cutters, Brown rarely relies on that pitch. This pitching matchup, combined with the projected low-scoring environment, leads Guy Boston to anticipate struggles for Wallner, making the unders appealing betting options.

Cash Out Sports Picks liked the New York Yankees on the money line against the Diamondbacks due to their impressive offensive consistency at home, as they average over five runs per game at Yankee Stadium. Additionally, they noted Arizona ranks in the league's upper half in extra-base hits away from home, showing offensive capability but highlighting the Yankees slight edge in home production. Both lineups were recognized for effectiveness against right-handed pitching this season, but Cash Out Sports Picks expects the Yankees' superior home offense to ultimately prevail.

Cash Out Sports Picks recommended betting the Yankees money line, highlighting key matchup specifics. Arizona's offensive struggles this season versus lefties—just a .219 average with only one home run—greatly contrasts to last year's league-leading .284 mark in this split, making Carlos Rodon well-positioned to maintain his solid early-season form. Despite Rodon's previous career struggles against Arizona, the Yankees' league-leading offense (18 HR, 10.3 R/G, and 1.1 OPS) and their productive showing at Yankee Stadium strongly suggest a bounce-back Yankees victory against a vulnerable Diamondbacks squad relying on Zach Gallen coming off a shaky outing vs Chicago.

Cash Out Sports Picks recommended backing the Houston Astros money line against the Minnesota Twins. They pointed out that despite Houston's slow start and recent struggles, including being swept by the Giants, the Astros offense shows clear signs of being due for a breakout, especially after Jordan Alvarez's strong showing on Wednesday. They noted the potential of pitcher Hunter Brown, who pitched well in his first start but lacked offensive support, and emphasized that Brown has the necessary tools to be effective against the Twins lineup. With Joe Ryan also vulnerable in afternoon starts (4.05 ERA), they expect Houston's talented offense to finally deliver, making the Astros a good play.

Guy Boston advised betting against Nick Lodolo again today, highlighting his consistently poor pitching numbers despite a tolerable batting average allowed (.231). Lodolo struggled significantly last season with a concerning 4.76 ERA and a .290 BABIP, reflecting frequent hard contact allowed. He has already surrendered at least two runs once this season against the Giants and exhibited long-term patterns of vulnerability, having a notably poor finish to last season. Although the Brewers offense is neither elite nor terrible against left-handed pitching, sitting about league-average last year and again in early 2025, Guy Boston noted they are capable enough offensively to capitalize against Lodolo's persistent shortcomings. Despite the prop's slightly unfavorable juice (-150), Guy Boston sees clear metrics supporting the Brewers scoring at least two runs on Lodolo and considers this a highly actionable wager.

Guy Boston backs Nick Lodolo to surrender at least 2 earned runs against the Brewers, pointing to Lodolo's consistent struggles last season. Lodolo exceeded this earned run total in 71% of his outings last year and in his only game so far in 2025 against the Giants. He notably ended last year on a 10-game streak surpassing this line, averaging 2.9 earned runs allowed per start in 2024. His one start last season against Milwaukee resulted in him allowing 3 earned runs. While the Brewers were only middle-of-the-road against left-handed pitchers last season and this year, Lodolo's consistently poor performances make Guy Boston confident in this play, even at the higher juice of -150 odds.

Guy Boston recommended betting the under on Christian Walker's 1.5 hits, runs, and RBIs prop versus the Twins. Walker has hit this under consistently so far, cashing five straight games after an initial single-game over against the Mets. Walker is averaging only 0.67 combined hits, runs, and RBIs per game this season. Last season, he only eclipsed this line in 52% of games, indicating relatively average production. Walker faces Joe Ryan today, a solid matchup despite Walker only having a single hit in three previous plate appearances. Ryan had a 3.60 ERA last year and allowed just a .229 batting average against right-handed batters. The Astros offense has struggled early this season, further supporting the under play. Guy Boston sees Walker continuing his recent struggles with limited production today, making the under at -150 odds a worthwhile consideration.

Tokyo Brandon advised betting on Merrill Kelly and the Diamondbacks in the first five innings against the Yankees. Kelly has historically excelled against New York, holding Yankee hitters to a .180 average and .580 OPS in his career. He recently had a strong start, unlike opposing starter Carlos Carrasco, who has struggled in recent years. With Kelly maintaining solid form even at 36 and benefiting from Arizona's top-3 ranked offense by Brandon's metrics, Brandon sees value in taking Arizona at +0.5 runs for the first five innings at odds between -120 and -135, expecting Kelly to outperform Carrasco early.

Tokyo Brandon recommended betting against Yankees pitcher Carlos Carrasco in the first five innings when they face the Diamondbacks. Brandon emphasized that Carrasco, now 39 and having battled cancer, has significantly declined recently, with WHIP declining from a prime of around 1.00 to as high as 1.70 in recent seasons. Carrasco's season opener was particularly troubling: in just two innings against a struggling Milwaukee lineup, he allowed three earned runs and gave up a home run. Additionally, Carrasco last faced Arizona in 2024 and was hit hard, surrendering four earned runs in four innings. Considering Arizona ranks third in MLB offense per Brandon's metrics, he expects Carrasco to be vulnerable again early in the matchup.

Since starting the season 0-for-5, Jackson Chourio has caught fire, hitting safely in each subsequent game and homering Wednesday. Zach Thompson supported Chourio as an undervalued DFS target for Thursday, highlighting his early-season success against lefty pitching and strong recent hitting. Facing Nick Lodolo, Thompson recommended Chourio as a DFS value chasing strong recent form vs left-handers (5-for-16, .313, with power).

Zach Thompson highlighted Aaron Judge as a high-quality DFS outfield pick, expecting him to rebound against Merrill Kelly. Despite recent struggles (five strikeouts in his last eight at-bats in the Arizona series), Judge maintains a season batting line of .368, four home runs, and an elite .626 wOBA. He holds strong past success against Merrill Kelly (including a home run) and is primed for a turnaround.

Ben Rice, identified by Zach Thompson, emerged as a great DFS budget bat due to his power potential vs Merrill Kelly. Rice earned his spot with an explosive spring (five homers, .359 wOBA) and continues to impress, hitting .385 with two home runs and a .565 wOBA so far this season. Particularly strong against righties (seven of his eight MLB homers off RHP), Rice faces a favorable matchup against Kelly, presenting great DFS value.

Zach Thompson recommended Eugenio Suarez as a large-upside DFS selection vs Carlos Carrasco and the Yankees. Suarez has only five hits in his first 21 at-bats this season, but all five were home runs, including a game-winning grand slam Tuesday against the Yankees. Suarez has historical success against Carrasco (4-for-17 with a home run and a triple) and remains an affordable option for DFS contests, making him a compelling choice on DraftKings and FanDuel.

Zach Thompson identified Nestor Cortes as a buy-low MLB DFS candidate after a brutal Brewers debut, where Cortes gave up eight runs and five homers in just two innings. Despite this nightmare outing, Thompson highlighted Cortes's previous season's solid metrics (3.77 ERA, 3.84 FIP, 8.4 K/9) and his strong spring (four runs in 11 innings, 14 strikeouts) as indicators of better performances to come. The Reds struggled heavily against left-handed pitching last season, ranking in the bottom 10 in most offensive categories, setting Cortes up for a favorable bounce-back matchup at home.

Zach Thompson tabbed Joe Ryan as his top pitching choice for the MLB DFS slate on April 3rd, citing particularly strong home performances over his career at Target Field, where Ryan posts a K/9 rate of 10.5, notably higher than his road strikeout rate. Ryan also exhibited encouraging form with a strong first start against the Cardinals, pitching five innings with five strikeouts, allowing only one run. Ryan's matchup against an Astros team that currently ranks among the league leaders in strikeout rate (54 Ks in six games) offers substantial upside, especially in a cold afternoon game in Minneapolis. Despite some inconsistency against Houston last season (eight earned runs over two starts), Thompson expects Ryan's strikeout skills to shine in this spot.

Zach Thompson endorsed Nick Lodolo as a strong MLB DFS pitching play at Milwaukee. In his opening game this season, Lodolo pitched well (six innings, two earned runs), but curiously recorded only one strikeout, far below his impressive rates from last year (9.5 K/9) and spring (9.8 K/9). Thompson sees this as a clear opportunity for strikeout regression, especially given Lodolo's superior road splits from last year (3.56 ERA, 3.23 FIP). The Brewers offer a fine matchup for strikeout upside, making Lodolo particularly appealing in the DFS slate.

Michael Savio projects Reds pitcher Nick Lodolo to have a tough game tonight against the Brewers. Milwaukee’s lineup is heating up, scoring eight times in their last two games following a slow start. Lodolo struggled badly in his most recent start at Milwaukee last August, allowing three runs over 5 1/3 innings. With Milwaukee's Jackson Chourio and the Brewers lineup clicking, Savio expects Lodolo's struggles at American Family Field to continue tonight.

Derek Carty recommends betting the over on Joe Ryan's 5.5 strikeout total (-160 odds) as one of the day's high-value pitcher prop bets. The projection assigns Ryan a 69% chance of exceeding this number, providing +$18.18 in expected value. Ryan benefits significantly from a dominating platoon advantage against a Houston Astros lineup projected to feature eight right-handed hitters, positioning him nicely to surpass this strikeout projection.

NBC Sports Bet Staff leaned toward the Diamondbacks covering the run line at +1.5 against the Yankees. Highlighting recent performance, although the Diamondbacks struggled offensively picking up just three hits in their last win, their pitching has been sharp, including Zach Gallen's 13-strikeout masterpiece. Merrill Kelly, Thursday's starter, allowed just one earned run over 5.1 innings in his last outing, positioning Arizona to keep the game tight.

NBC Sports Bet Staff recommended backing the Yankees moneyline against the Diamondbacks, making use of their betting model predictions. Despite the Yankees struggling offensively with 30 strikeouts over the last two games, the tout looks to capitalize on a bounce-back performance and regression to their offensive mean at home behind Carlos Carrasco, whose opening start was rough but limited sample size. The Diamondbacks managed just three hits on Wednesday and could face similar offensive troubles against Carrasco.

Tristan H. Cockcroft pinpointed Diamondbacks hitter Gabriel Moreno as an excellent streaming option in DFS against veteran RHP Carlos Carrasco. While Carrasco making the Yankees rotation is a compelling feel-good story, Cockcroft notes that his roster spot comes from team desperation rather than his merit, evidenced by a troubling 5.02 ERA and 1.40 WHIP since 2019. Cockcroft believes Moreno, along with teammates Jake McCarthy and Pavin Smith, are set up for success facing Carrasco's shaky pitching and offers a clear actionable DFS recommendation.

Data Skrive recommends prop betting consideration for Harrison Bader, who leads the Twins with three homers and eight RBI over their recent contests. Despite batting only .250 over that stretch, his power surge, including three homers and consistent run production, strengthens his value to exceed RBI and total base props.

Tristan H. Cockcroft pointed out Nestor Cortes as a potential streaming candidate despite his disastrous season opener against the Yankees, which included surrendering five home runs and issuing five walks. Cockcroft attributed the poor performance partially to first-game jitters against his former team. Returning to Milwaukee (American Family Field), a park that suppresses hits and inflates strikeouts despite being friendly to home runs, provides Cortes an excellent bounce-back scenario. Given the sparse selection of starters on Thursday's slate, Cortes presents high strikeout upside if his first outing proves an anomaly.

Tristan H. Cockcroft identified Merrill Kelly as a viable pitching stream despite the challenging road matchup against the Yankees. Though Yankee Stadium is known as a hitter-friendly park, Cockcroft highlighted Kelly’s ability to limit home runs, evidenced by having the 11th-lowest HR/9 rate among pitchers with at least 450 innings since 2022. The Diamondbacks pitcher faces a potent New York lineup led by Aaron Judge, amplifying the risk, yet his history of suppressing long balls makes him worth consideration on a difficult slate with limited streaming options.

Data Skrive notes that the Twins have successfully handled the favorite role this season, winning two out of three games when favored by at least -124. The implied moneyline probabilities also favor Minnesota with a 55.4% chance to win. Meanwhile, the Astros have lost their only game this year as underdogs at odds of +104 or longer. This situational trend makes the Twins' moneyline at -124 an actionable value play.

Data Skrive points out Jose Altuve as a strong player prop bet candidate for the Astros against the Twins, highlighting his hot start on the season. Altuve is batting .391 entering the game on a six-game hitting streak. These numbers suggest excellent value betting Altuve over 0.5 hits, despite the -195 odds, especially considering his recent consistent approach at the plate.

Michael Savio expects Hunter Brown to continue his solid form after an impressive outing against the Mets, striking out seven batters across six innings with just two earned runs allowed. Brown had a rough experience in Minnesota previously, but Savio views that merely as an off-day for a typically strong pitcher. Facing the underperforming Minnesota offense hitting below .175 as a team through five games, Savio sees a prime opportunity for Brown to dominate and keep this matchup low-scoring, capitalizing effectively on the Twins' offensive struggles.