Backing Bears +7, Cowart emphasized Chicago’s offense scoring 28.5 points per game during a four-game win streak behind an RPO-heavy scheme that hides blocking flaws and creates chunk plays for D.J. Moore and Cole Kmet. He pointed out the Eagles have surrendered 31-plus in three of their last four and rank 28th in third-down conversion rate allowed since Week 8. With Philadelphia on a short week and misfiring in the red zone (21st over the last month), Cowart judged a full touchdown “too rich” and expects Chicago to hang around deep into the fourth quarter.

Cowart laid the touchdown with Baltimore at –7, arguing that even a Ravens offense stuck in neutral during its current five-game win streak should thrive against what he calls “one of the worst defenses of all time.” The Bengals rank dead last in EPA per play, success-rate allowed, and red-zone TD rate. Cowart expects Todd Monken to lean on early-down runs to stay on schedule—an area where Cincinnati allows 5.3 yards per carry—and predicts Lamar Jackson will finally produce a crooked number on the scoreboard in a division matchup the Ravens “have to have” to maintain AFC North control.

C Jackson Cowart recommended taking Dallas +3.5 against the visiting Chiefs. He noted the Cowboys have ripped off back-to-back wins since importing defensive tackle Quinnen Williams, crediting the newcomer for stabilizing a front that was gashed early in the year. Cowart believes a signature victory over Philadelphia re-ignited a locker room that survived a chaotic 3-5-1 start, and he likes the short-week spot at AT&T Stadium where Dallas owns a +7.1 net EPA per game this year. Against a Chiefs offense that ranks just 18th in explosive-play rate, he projects a one-score finish and advises grabbing the hook before it disappears.

Gary Pearson grabbed Packers +2.5 on Thanksgiving, pointing to Green Bay’s ability to choke off Detroit’s preferred ground attack. He cited EPA per play that ranks the Packers’ front ninth in the league and a run–defense success rate that holds opponents to the fifth-fewest yards per carry. Pearson reminded readers that Week 1 was Jahmyr Gibbs’ worst rushing output of the season—19 yards on nine totes—because Green Bay’s interior linemen reset the line of scrimmage all afternoon. With Jared Goff far less efficient when forced into long down-and-distance situations, Pearson expects the Packers to shorten the game, keep Detroit under its team total, and cover the short number.

Jim Sannes recommended a Bengals moneyline sprinkle at +270, noting that his model gives Cincinnati a 31.3% win probability versus the implied 27.0%. He’s fading Baltimore’s offense, which has managed only 0.03 Passing NEP per drop-back in four games since Lamar Jackson returned—well below the league average 0.10—and has been below average on 3rd/4th down even against soft defenses like Miami and the Jets. Sannes wonders if Jackson’s scrambling pop is still muted. On the Cincinnati side, Joe Burrow is back but Tee Higgins is out with a concussion, so Sannes baked in modest efficiency; nevertheless, the projection still shows value. Because of that offensive volatility, he prefers the longer moneyline to taking the seven points.

Jim Sannes said the Packers are a live underdog at +124 because his model rates them as the superior team even on the road. Through Week 12, Green Bay sits 5th in numberFire’s schedule-adjusted offensive rankings and 3rd through the air, while Detroit ranks 7th in both categories. The Packers also lead the NFL in schedule-adjusted late-down success rate. Defensively, Green Bay is 7th compared to Detroit’s 13th, and the Lions remain banged up with safety Kerby Joseph missing Monday’s practice. Sannes’ numbers make this matchup nearly a pick ’em, so he views the + odds on the Packers’ moneyline as clear value.

Bill Speros laid the 6.5 points with Philadelphia on Black Friday, saying the short week is exactly what the Eagles need after surrendering a 21-point lead in Dallas. Both clubs sit at 8-3 and have seven ATS covers, but Speros trusts Philly’s defense to clamp down on Caleb Williams while noting the Bears do not have the down-field threat that torched the Eagles Sunday (Dallas’ George Pickens). He added that Saquon Barkley is unlikely to cough up the ball again and expects A.J. Brown to stay quiet, projecting a convincing rebound win and cover for the defending champs.

Ross Kelly reported that the SportsLine Projection Model made the Baltimore Ravens a top Thanksgiving wager, grading Ravens ‑7 (total 51.5) as an A-rated side that covers “well over 50% of the time.” Kelly reminded readers the model is riding a 48-33 run on top-rated picks and sits more than $7,000 in profit for $100 bettors since launch. The model’s confidence is bolstered by Baltimore’s current five-game winning streak and a four-game head-to-head streak over Cincinnati, trends the article highlighted as key context. Kelly noted the pick is one of four legs the model combined into an 11-1 Thanksgiving parlay, making Ravens ‑7 the anchor play for bettors looking to build holiday cards.

Ross Kelly relayed that SportsLine’s 10,000-simulation computer model stamped the Ravens -7 as an A-rated spread play for Thanksgiving night. The model leans on Baltimore’s four-game winning streak versus Cincinnati and a 4-1 ATS run in the last five head-to-head meetings. Kelly noted the Ravens defense has smothered six straight opponents under 20 points, even shutting down top-10 scoring units from the Rams and Bears. Meanwhile, the Bengals defense is statistically the NFL’s worst: last in points and yards allowed and passing defense, second-worst against the run, and third-worst on third downs. Cincinnati has forced only one turnover in its last four games, a stark contrast to Baltimore’s nine takeaways in that span. Factoring in those mismatches, the model projects a comfortable double-digit Ravens win and shows them covering in well over 50% of simulations, making Baltimore -7 the anchor leg of a four-pick parlay that would return more than 11-1.

Mason Cameron recommended taking Chicago +7 at Philadelphia. He pointed out the Eagles’ ground game has vanished—held in check by a mediocre Dallas run defense in Week 12—and the problem is amplified with star tackle Lane Johnson sidelined. When the run stalls, Jalen Hurts struggles under pressure, creating offensive volatility. Meanwhile, Chicago keeps churning out efficient rushing production and benefits from Caleb Williams’ escapability, giving the Bears a reliable floor for scoring drives. Cameron believes that offensive stability, paired with Philly’s inconsistency, makes the full touchdown spread too generous to pass up.

Mason Cameron said the Rams are a strong -9.5 wager against Carolina. Since their Week 8 bye, Los Angeles leads the league in EPA per play on offense (0.172) and defense (-0.205). Matthew Stafford tops the NFL in PFF passing grade, and Sean McVay’s scheme has shredded every coverage look it has faced. Carolina’s secondary has slipped to fifth-worst in EPA per dropback over the last month, while its offense leans on Rico Dowdle’s ground game—bad news against a Rams front that ranks third in EPA per rush allowed during the same span. Coming off a blowout of Tampa Bay, Cameron argued L.A.’s two-way dominance makes them worth laying the points before this line moves to double digits.

Seth Walder laid the six with San Francisco, eager to fade Shedeur Sanders after an overrated 1-0 start. Walder cited Sanders’ 8.7 QBR in that debut—dragged down by a first-down pick, zero designed runs or scrambles, and a 6-to-18 ratio of positive to negative EPA plays despite facing a soft defense that loaded eight in the box on 24% of dropbacks. The 49ers will offer a far nastier front and disguise-heavy coverage, and Walder doubts Sanders can handle the uptick in complexity and speed.

Solak grabbed Pittsburgh +4, pointing to Buffalo’s vulnerability against heavy personnel and downhill rushing—exactly how the Steelers want to play. Even if Aaron Rodgers sits, Solak projects consistent scoring via gap-scheme runs and play-action. On defense, the Steelers’ speed off the edge (potentially bolstered by Alex Highsmith’s return) matches the profile that has stymied the Bills’ offense this season. Early forecasts call for a snowy afternoon at Acrisure Stadium, an equalizer that further tilts things toward the underdog ground-and-pound formula.

Ben Solak laid the seven with Philadelphia, arguing Chicago’s 8-3 record masks a negative point differential. The Eagles bring the first above-average defense the Bears have faced since September; the last comparable opponent, Baltimore, beat Chicago 30-16. Solak noted mounting injuries on the Bears’ defense and the quick Friday turnaround as additional hurdles. He expects Philadelphia’s balanced offense and deep pass rush to control the game 'pole to pole.'

Matt Bowen backed Houston +3.5, crediting DeMeco Ryans' ferocious front. The Texans sit sixth in the league with 33 sacks, and Bowen highlighted how constant heat should rattle Daniel Jones, whose off-target rate skyrockets to 25% when pressured. He expects that pass-rush edge to decide third-and-longs and red-zone snaps. Bowen also noted the potential lift from C.J. Stroud's anticipated return, giving the offense enough punch to stay inside the number even on the road.

Jeremy Cluff predicted an Eagles 24-21 win and warned that Philadelphia’s defense will "force Caleb Williams into some mistakes." Cluff cited the Eagles’ urgency after last week’s wake-up loss to Dallas and their ability to generate inside pressure as keys that could rattle Williams despite Chicago’s four-game win streak. He framed it as a spot to avoid Bears passing totals in prop markets and to downgrade Williams in DFS cash builds given the road environment and likely negative turnover script.

Matt Johnson said Friday’s matchup sets up for a Barkley bounce-back game even without All-Pro RT Lane Johnson. The Chicago front ranks bottom-10 in rush EPA allowed, and Johnson expects Nick Sirianni to lean on inside zone and counter looks to protect a banged-up offensive line. He projects a low-scoring 20-14 Eagles victory, arguing Barkley’s volume will stay intact because Philadelphia can generate pressure defensively without blitzing, forcing quick Bears punts and tilting time of possession. Johnson framed Barkley as a strong DFS tournament play and a viable over bet on rushing yards props.

Bill Speros said Philadelphia is the right side at -7 on Black Friday. He pointed out that both 8-3 clubs have covered seven spreads this season, but the trajectories are very different: Chicago has won 8 of 9 yet still lacks a true vertical threat, while the Eagles just blew a 21-point lead in Dallas and will be "amped" to respond on the short week. Speros expects Philly’s front to contain Caleb Williams, notes that Saquon Barkley is unlikely to repeat last week’s goal-line fumble, and believes an A.J. Brown–led passing game will look far cleaner than the Cowboys disaster. With the champs playing at Lincoln Financial Field and the Bears traveling on a four-day turnaround, he labeled a convincing Eagles win and cover one of his Week 13 Best Bets.

Erich Richter jumped on Raiders +10, spotlighting trench woes on both sides. Pro Football Focus grades the Chargers’ offensive line dead last (32nd) with the Raiders only one spot better, but that parity makes a double-digit spread look rich. With the total at 41.5, he calculated a 27-13 type of score would be required for Los Angeles to cover—a game script he calls too precise to trust. Citing a similar stance that cashed when he backed the Titans +13.5 versus Seattle, Richter expects the number to close nearer 7.5 and wants early tickets on Vegas before the market corrects.

Erich Richter backed Green Bay +2.5 for Thanksgiving in Detroit, stressing that the Packers’ defense is the sharp side of this matchup. He cited Aaron Schatz’s FTN DVOA projections showing a statistical dead heat and pointed out that Green Bay is allowing only 4.6 yards per play while Detroit is giving up 5.1. With the Lions sputtering for two straight weeks and having just made Jameis Winston look like a competent 2026 starter, Richter expects bettors to steam the Packers and shrink the spread before kickoff. He framed the play as ‘defense travels’ value, looking for closing-line equity on a live underdog.

Erich Richter backed Green Bay +2.5 for Thanksgiving in Detroit, stressing that the Packers’ defense is the sharp side of this matchup. He cited Aaron Schatz’s FTN DVOA projections showing a statistical dead heat and pointed out that Green Bay is allowing only 4.6 yards per play while Detroit is giving up 5.1. With the Lions sputtering for two straight weeks and having just made Jameis Winston look like a competent 2026 starter, Richter expects bettors to steam the Packers and shrink the spread before kickoff. He framed the play as ‘defense travels’ value, looking for closing-line equity on a live underdog.

Nick Hennion recommended over 22.5 yards (-110) on Tetairoa McMillan’s longest reception. San Francisco’s pass rush has collapsed to a league-worst 2.8 percent sack rate since losing Nick Bosa, and every quarterback faced since Week 6 has registered a pass longer than 23.5 yards. Instead of backing Bryce Young’s 32.5-yard line, Hennion targets McMillan because the receiver thrives against zone (558 yards, no other Panther has 200) and has topped 22.5 in six of 11 games, missing once by the hook. Last week against Atlanta’s similarly zone-heavy scheme, McMillan posted an 8-130 line with a 30-yard long. The 49ers have surrendered at least one 21.5-plus reception to a wideout in six straight contests. Those trends, combined with SF’s nonexistent pressure and McMillan’s zone dominance, lead Hennion to project another chunk gain that cashes the prop.

Nick Hennion said to bet Brock Purdy’s longest completion over 35.5 yards at -120. He noted Carolina sits 27th in pass-defense DVOA and has been giving up an average longest completion of 47.9 yards since Week 5, with only Tyrod Taylor failing to clear 35.5 in that span. The Panthers play zone coverage on a league-high 82 percent of snaps—three percentage points higher than Seattle, against whom Purdy launched a 45-yard strike while producing his best EPA + CPOE game of the year. Purdy ranked third in DVOA versus zone in 2023 and fifth the season prior, while the 49ers overall offense ranks third in DVOA and finally draws a true bottom-10 secondary. Given the combination of matchup, scheme fit, and Carolina’s recent deep-ball woes, Hennion expects Purdy to connect on at least one down-field bomb and eclipse the 35.5-yard prop for the second time this season.

Eric Uribe advised bettors to back San Francisco −13.5 on Monday night. He argued the spread is warranted because Brock Purdy continues to pick apart defenses with a quick-strike passing attack while Christian McCaffrey punishes opponents on the ground and through the air. With Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk stretching the field horizontally and vertically, Uribe expects Kyle Shanahan to dictate tempo from the opening drive. On the other side, Carolina has struggled to protect Bryce Young all season and now faces one of the NFL’s deepest defensive lines. Uribe noted that the 49ers rank near the top of the league in pressure rate and routinely collapse pockets, a nightmare for a Panthers offense already short on explosive plays. Given the talent gap on both sides of the ball and San Francisco’s playoff urgency, Uribe sees a multi-score Niners win as the most likely script and is comfortable laying nearly two touchdowns.

Cory Bonini endorsed betting Christian McCaffrey for 2+ anytime touchdowns at +135, stressing that odds shorter than +200 highlight both McCaffrey’s dominance and the Panthers’ struggles versus running backs. He pointed out that the position has scored 11 times in 11 games against Carolina—essentially one TD every 25.67 carries. Bonini expects San Francisco to lean on the ground attack, increasing McCaffrey’s red-zone chances, and mentioned a secondary angle of 6+ receptions at +103 for those looking to diversify wagers.

Cory Bonini backed George Kittle to eclipse 60 receiving yards at +101, calling it a "fine double-up opp" for bettors. Kittle has already cleared the number in consecutive games and, according to Bonini, should feast on play-action as San Francisco establishes the run. Carolina has allowed only three 60-plus-yard tight end performances and one 59-yard game, but Bonini emphasized that none of those opponents matched Kittle’s caliber. The combination of Kittle’s hot streak and the Panthers’ relative inexperience against elite tight ends drives the recommendation.

Cory Bonini said the -103 line on Tetairoa McMillan to clear 70 receiving yards is worth a wager. Bonini noted McMillan has already topped the mark four times and fell short by fewer than eight yards on two other occasions. The wideout brings momentum after back-to-back 60-plus yard outings and benefits from what Bonini called an inevitable negative game script as Carolina tries to keep pace with San Francisco. He added that the 49ers have surrendered 70 or more receiving yards to the position six times this season and at least 62 yards in seven additional games, making the prop a statistically friendly spot.

Cory Bonini recommended wagering on Christian McCaffrey to score 2+ touchdowns at +135. The short number reflects both McCaffrey’s red-zone dominance and Carolina’s struggles versus running backs. Bonini noted that RBs have crossed the goal line 11 times in 11 games against the Panthers, averaging one rushing score every 25.67 carries. With San Francisco expected to control the trenches and feed CMC near the stripe, Bonini sees a strong chance for a multi-TD night. He also floated a complementary angle of 6+ receptions at +103 for bettors wanting additional exposure.

Cory Bonini endorsed George Kittle over 60+ receiving yards at +101. Kittle has eclipsed this total in two straight games and Bonini prefers riding that hot streak rather than worrying about matchup data. Carolina has surrendered only three 60-yard TE performances (plus a lone 59-yarder), but Bonini stressed none of those tight ends offered Kittle’s combination of route-running and run-after-catch ability. He expects Kyle Shanahan to lean on play-action, a look that has repeatedly burned the Panthers, giving Kittle ample opportunity to smash the modest yardage line.

Cory Bonini liked the 70+ receiving-yards prop on Tetairoa McMillan at -103. He pointed out that McMillan has already cleared the 70-yard mark four times this season and came up fewer than eight yards short in two other outings. The wideout has posted at least 60 yards in back-to-back games, giving him momentum. Bonini added that San Francisco’s secondary has allowed six different 70-yard WR performances in 2025 and another seven games of 62+ yards. With the 49ers projected to control the scoreboard, Bonini expects a pass-heavy, negative game script that funnels volume to McMillan, making the over an attractive play.

JutPicks recommended Brian Robinson Jr. anytime TD at +475. Robinson’s role has quietly expanded; he handled eight carries last week with four in the fourth quarter while the Niners led by three scores. JutPicks expects a similar game script as 7.5-point home favorites, noting Kyle Shanahan has not hesitated to lean on Robinson late. With San Francisco projected to ‘have full control’ Monday, the backup’s garbage-time volume offers juicy +475 payoff for a short-yardage plunge.

JutPicks grabbed Pearsall at +230 for an anytime TD. The wideout logged a 75% snap share in his first game back and was open repeatedly—including on a red-zone route Purdy never saw—despite sharing the field with Christian McCaffrey and George Kittle. JutPicks expects another high-volume passing script against a Panthers secondary ranked 31st in EPA/pass, giving Pearsall enough red-zone chances to make +230 a profitable dart.

Prop Holliday took Pearsall over 3.5 receptions at +114, calling the number an overreaction to his 1-catch return in Week 11. Film showed multiple missed reads where Pearsall was wide open—including a blown red-zone TD—something Holliday expects Shanahan and Purdy to correct in the Week 12 game plan. The matchup is ideal: Carolina plays zone at the league’s highest rate, and 21 of Pearsall’s 30 season targets have come versus zone looks. Before his six-game absence he averaged 8 targets and 5 catches per contest. Holliday believes the market will close near -110, making the current plus-money over a value play.

Chris Farley laid the 7.5 points with San Francisco at -102, arguing that Carolina’s dramatic Week 11 comeback has the market too high on the Panthers. Farley pointed to Bryce Young’s franchise-record 448-yard outing coming against a Falcons defense that has cratered—losers of five straight and now without QB Michael Penix Jr.—while the 49ers just throttled Arizona 41-22. With Brock Purdy healthy (19/26, 200 yards, 3 TDs, 7.7 YPA) and weapons George Kittle, Ricky Pearsall and Jauan Jennings all back, Farley expects Kyle Shanahan’s offense to roll. He added that San Francisco’s championship-caliber roster, home field and superior coaching combination should allow the Niners to “pull away” and cover comfortably.

Scimia built a +375 same-game parlay at bet365: McCaffrey over 123.5 rush + receiving yards, McCaffrey 2+ touchdowns, 49ers -7, and Brock Purdy 2+ passing touchdowns. He likes the combo because McCaffrey has five scores in his last three outings—including three last week—and now faces a Panthers front giving up 4.4 YPC. Purdy has thrown at least two TD passes in every game this season, and Scimia expects that streak to continue with the running back heavily involved in the passing game. If McCaffrey hits his yardage and finds the end zone twice, Scimia argues the 49ers should have little trouble covering the full-touchdown spread at home, turning the correlated legs into an attractive + odds payday.

Ed Scimia said to take Christian McCaffrey over 123.5 rushing + receiving yards at -115 on bet365. Scimia pointed out that McCaffrey has already piled up 1,439 scrimmage yards and is coming off a 121-yard, three-touchdown performance against Arizona. He has cleared 170 total yards twice in the last five weeks, a trend Scimia ties to the 49ers leaning on him more as the weather turns cold. The analyst noted that Carolina’s defense sits outside the Top-20 in both yards per carry allowed (4.4) and yards per pass attempt allowed (6.9), giving Kyle Shanahan plenty of mismatches to exploit with McCaffrey’s dual-threat skill set. Scimia expects San Francisco to move him all over the formation and believes the volume—regardless of whether it comes on the ground or through the air—will be enough to cash the over on Monday Night Football.

Ross Kelly argued that laying the 7.5 points with San Francisco remains attractive because the offense finally looks whole. With Brock Purdy healthy, the 49ers just dropped a season-high 41 points after averaging 22. Kelly emphasized Christian McCaffrey's league-leading scrimmage yards and his pace for simultaneous 1,000-yard rushing and receiving seasons, plus George Kittle's four touchdowns over his last four games since returning from IR. Given a Panthers offense that ranks 28th in scoring and sits bottom-10 in passing efficiency, third-down conversions, and yards per play, Kelly projects a double-digit 49ers victory.

Ross Kelly said bettors should grab Carolina +7.5 because Bryce Young has quietly become a point-spread cover machine, going 7-2 ATS over his last nine starts. The Panthers are 5-1 against the number versus NFC opponents in 2025, and Kelly believes the matchup favors Young since San Francisco ranks dead last in sacks and has the second-fewest interceptions. He also pointed out that the 49ers have eight giveaways to just one takeaway at Levi's Stadium, removing any real home-field edge. With the league’s No. 4 rusher Rico Dowdle providing balance, Kelly expects Carolina to keep the game within a touchdown.

Daniel Vreeland doubled down on the same matchup, backing Kyu Blu Kelly to record an interception at +700. Cleveland hands first-time starter Shadeur Sanders the keys, and Vreeland expects at least one misread against a Raiders secondary that disguises coverage well. Kelly already flashed big-play ball skills with two interceptions of Bo Nix two weeks ago. Vreeland believes Sanders’ inexperience will give Kelly another shot at a game-changing takeaway.

Daniel Vreeland suggested Ronnie Hickman to intercept a pass at +650. Hickman has snagged picks in two of his last four games, and now faces Geno Smith, whose 13 interceptions lead the league. Vreeland stressed that Smith’s aggressive down-field tendencies align perfectly with Hickman’s center-field range. At better than 6-to-1 odds, Vreeland views the play as a high-value dart in the turnover market.

Daniel Vreeland played Cooper DeJean over 4.5 tackles and assists at -130. Dallas’ offense, led by an efficient Dak Prescott, has leaned on the pass to compensate for its leaky defense. DeJean has cleared this number in three of his last four contests, and Vreeland expects another high-volume passing script to boost the rookie defensive back’s stop total. Dallas’ boundary-centric attack funnels completions into DeJean’s zone, making five tackles a realistic baseline.

Daniel Vreeland recommended Jalon Walker to tally a sack at +110. The Saints have struggled to protect quarterback Tyler Shough all season, and Walker has been surging—three sacks over the two games prior to last week’s Berlin blanking. Vreeland highlighted that both recent victims were quarterbacks with a similar frame and mobility to Shough, reinforcing the matchup-based play. With Atlanta’s edge unit healthy, he expects Walker to break through at least once.

Daniel Vreeland advised taking DeMarcus Lawrence to record a sack at +124. He pointed out that Tennessee has surrendered 41 sacks in Cam Ward’s ten starts—worst in the NFL at 4.1 per game. Seattle sits sixth in total sacks, and Lawrence himself has taken down the quarterback in four of his last five contests. Vreeland expects Seattle’s pass-rush depth to exploit the Titans’ protection issues again on Sunday, making the plus money number attractive.

Matt Youmans recommended laying Kansas City -3 (-120 at Circa) because the defending champs are in “must-win” mode at 5-5 and 3.5 games behind Denver. He expects peak Patrick Mahomes effort, emphasizing the quarterback’s track record of covering in urgency spots. The Colts come off a bye, but Daniel Jones has thrown four interceptions across his last two outings, and Youmans doubts Indy can keep pace at Arrowhead. He views the number as cheap given the Chiefs’ postseason desperation, home-field edge, and overall roster pedigree.