Pat Fantasy Dog Pound advised that any roster featuring Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, or De’Von Achane should aggressively tack on Tua Tagovailoa in the double-digit rounds. He called Miami’s offense ‘absolute dust’ without its quarterback, meaning Hill or Waddle spike weeks almost always coincide with a big Tua score. Because Tagovailoa’s ADP currently trails other pocket passers like Jared Goff and Geno Smith, drafters can secure the correlated ceiling at minimal cost while other rooms are chasing skinny stacks. Pat views the late Tua add-on as the simplest, highest-upside way to keep Miami exposure live through the fantasy playoffs without compromising early-round structure.

Billy Jones said he "needs a ton more" George Kittle because the veteran tight end now slides into the late-60s/early-70s ADP range, making him the last name in what Billy calls the true elite tier. With drafters souring on early tight ends after two straight flop seasons, Kittle offers a rare 25-plus point ceiling at a fraction of the cost of Brock Bowers or Trey McBride. Billy stressed that when elite tight ends hit, they can add 15-20 points of leverage over the replacement-level six-to-eight-point scores opponents are getting, a swing that can decide Best Ball Mania playoff weeks. Grabbing Kittle also lets drafters stop at two tight ends and funnel the saved pick capital back into wide receivers.

Billy Jones said he is 82 % confident rookie Kyle Williams will emerge as New England’s No. 2 wideout by Weeks 7–8. Early camp reports show veterans Kayshon Boutte, Ja'Lynn Polk, and Javon Baker dropping passes, and Williams’ 2.84 yards per route in college dwarfs every competitor. Because projection models ding rookies early, Williams’ ADP has drifted into the 140s, but Billy is stashing him now, expecting a surge once beat writers confirm first-team reps. He compared the expected trajectory to DeMario Douglas’ late-season breakout last year and believes Williams can provide playoff-round leverage if Stefon Diggs or Kendrick Bourne miss time.

Billy Jones noted that Nick Chubb’s best-ball ADP has settled around pick 180 after an early-summer spike and views this range as the first ‘true price’ drafters have seen. The initial surge was driven by optimism on his ACL recovery, but Billy’s chart shows managers are no longer paying a premium. At that cost, Chubb slots in as a zero-RB leverage play who could return by November to face an AFC South schedule giving up 4.6 yards per carry. Billy will keep Chubb at 180 in his updated rankings, seeing limited downside and legitimate late-season tournament upside.

Billy Jones advised scooping Darren Waller in the final round of slow drafts now that Underdog has added him to the player pool following reports Miami is kicking the tires. Waller was a top-five fantasy tight end when healthy (23 % target share during his peak with the Raiders) and would slide into an offense that just vacated Jonnu Smith’s 60-plus targets. Because closed contests have already locked rosters, Billy believes active slow drafters can grab a unique, virtually unowned player who could become Tua Tagovailoa’s red-zone weapon if the Dolphins sign him.

Billy Jones called De'Von Achane “one of the better clicks in the second round.” He pointed out that Miami’s decision to move away from a two-tight-end rotation further concentrates touches among Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, and Achane. The explosive back already owns league-best 7.8 yards per touch, and Billy believes an every-down bump is realistic after Raheem Mostert’s age-32 season. With 14.5 % personal exposure, Billy is betting Achane’s 22-touch ceiling shows up in spike-week formats and thinks current ADP still lags the likely workload.

Pat Fantasy Dog Pound said Jonnu Smith’s move to Pittsburgh vaporizes almost all of his best-ball appeal. With Pat Freiermuth entrenched as the primary pass-catching tight end, Smith now projects as, at best, the No. 4 target behind George Pickens, Roman Wilson, and the running backs. Pat expects Smith’s ADP to crater from the mid-teens to the Kyle Pitts–Hunter Henry range (around TE25-30), noting he will now be drafted behind names like Jake Ferguson, David Njoku, Tucker Kraft, and Colston Loveland. Unless drafters believe Pittsburgh will live in two-TE sets, Smith is strictly a last-round dart who needs multiple injuries to matter.

Pat Fantasy Dog Pound called Rico Dowdle one of his favorite down-board darts. Despite topping 1,000 scrimmage yards last season, Dowdle regularly comes off the board after Roschon Johnson. Pat argues the Cowboys kept the backfield wide open behind Ezekiel Elliott, giving Dowdle a realistic shot at early-season lead duties or a goal-line role. At his current basement ADP he fits perfectly as an RB5 who can spike while you wait on wide-receiver heavy builds.

Pat Fantasy Dog Pound is scooping Cedric Tillman (26.7% exposure) as his preferred answer to the wide-receiver dead zone after pick 140. Under-dog’s ‘will start’ blurb plus a thinned-out depth chart behind Amari Cooper and Deontay Johnson point to full-time route participation. Pat added that Joe Flacco’s aggressive down-field tendencies should mesh with Tillman’s vertical skill set, giving the second-year WR week-winning upside that comparable options like Jack Besh lack.

Pat Fantasy Dog Pound said J.K. Dobbins has already rocketed from the 190s into the low-120s and no longer offers a discount. With Sean Payton auditioning multiple backs in Denver, Pat believes there is still too much uncertainty to pay a top-120 price tag. Until camp clarifies the depth chart he is pivoting to Tyjae Spears and rookie Ray Davis in the same range, arguing both have cleaner paths to three-down workloads if the starters in front of them falter.

Sam Monson also endorsed taking the Colts over 7.5 wins. He stressed that the quarterback position moves betting markets more than any other, but the rest of this roster is good enough to carry middling QB play. Monson noted that Daniel Jones already secured a $40 million-per-year contract thanks to a solid season in a worse setting, so in a dome with better protection and receivers Jones is "capable of taking this team on a run." Even if the staff sticks with Anthony Richardson, Monson thinks Richardson’s rare rushing ability will create bigger throwing windows and the potential for rapid improvement, especially since comparable tools-based quarterbacks like Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson made accuracy leaps in the NFL. Given the defense’s talent, Chris Ballard’s overall solid roster construction, and at least one viable QB path, Monson sees more ways Indy's record lands at eight wins or better than under the number.

Steve Palazzolo said he is betting the Colts to finish over the posted 7.5-win total. He argued the roster is "really good on both sides of the ball, positions two through 52," so the only real swing factor is quarterback play. Palazzolo believes that whoever wins the Daniel Jones vs. Anthony Richardson battle will be operating in the best environment either passer has had: a dome, an above-average offensive line, and the strongest pass-catching group Jones has worked with. If Jones starts, Palazzolo can "easily see" him having his best statistical season and driving the team to 9–10 wins. If Richardson starts, the elite rushing threat and occasional "best throw of last season" upside give the offense a high ceiling as long as he stays healthy and improves on accuracy (currently 10 percentage points worse than any other starter in PFF’s uncatchable-pass rate). Because the rest of the roster is solid and either quarterback represents an upgrade from last year’s carousel, Palazzolo feels the safer wager is the over.

Sam Monson cautioned bettors against assuming the Vikings will clear 8.5 wins. He noted that 14-win teams almost always regress toward 11-12 the following season, and the market is already baking in that drop. More importantly, Monson stressed that projecting J.J. McCarthy is "all extrapolation." Every positive data point—O'Connell’s quarterback track record, a rebuilt offensive line, elite weapons, and the success of McCarthy’s draft classmates—remains secondary evidence until the rookie actually plays NFL snaps. If McCarthy is merely average, Minnesota probably tops out at eight wins; if he struggles, Monson believes "it’s going to be really difficult to get more than eight and a half." The unknown under center, combined with a tough opening stretch that includes the Bears, Falcons, Bengals, Steelers, and Browns before a Week-6 bye, makes the under the sharper side in his view.

Steve Palazzolo said he would play the Minnesota Vikings OVER their 8.5-win total. He pointed to several reasons: (1) Kevin O'Connell has a growing track record of squeezing production out of quarterbacks, having already coaxed career-best efficiency out of Kirk Cousins and Sam Darnold; (2) first-rounder J.J. McCarthy steps into an offense that already features Justin Jefferson, an upgraded offensive line and improved defensive front, so the rookie does not need to be a superstar for the team to get to nine wins; (3) even with natural regression from last season's 14-win outlier, historically good teams coached by offensive play-callers like O'Connell rarely fall below .500; (4) the early schedule gives Minnesota only one true road game (at Chicago) before the Week-6 bye, which should help McCarthy acclimate; and (5) the market is pricing in too much quarterback uncertainty relative to Palazzolo’s assessment of the supporting cast. Put together, he sees nine or ten wins as the most likely outcome and labeled the over a playable bet in May futures markets.

Sam Monson advised taking the Chicago Bears over 8.5 wins. He argued Chicago’s five-win 2023 season came with a dysfunctional coaching staff that is now gone. The Bears hired play-caller Ben Johnson, fortified the offensive line, and added two rookie pass-catchers, giving second-year quarterback Caleb Williams a much better environment to make the typical Year-2 leap. Monson referenced NFL-com insiders who said Williams was essentially left to teach himself film study last season; if true, even modest coaching competence should unlock a sizeable jump. He also expects natural regression from Minnesota’s 14-win outlier and notes the Vikings’ quarterback uncertainty with rookie J.J. McCarthy. Those factors, plus divisional cannibalization, still leave a clear path for Chicago to reach nine or more wins, so Monson recommends betting the Over 8.5 now.

Terrell Furman Jr. tossed J.J. McCarthy into the AP Comeback Player of the Year conversation at +850. McCarthy is coming off a meniscus tear that wiped out his rookie campaign, and Furman believes voters default to quarterbacks when award fields are muddied. He argued that if Minnesota wins the division and secures a top-two NFC seed—outcomes he already likes—the narrative of a "former top-10 pick returning from injury to lead a playoff team" will resonate with media voters. Given Kevin O’Connell’s QB-friendly system and the possibility of double-digit Viking wins, Furman thinks +850 is generous for award exposure to an ascending rookie passer.

Erickson plans to bet Jordan Mason to lead the NFL in rushing touchdowns once books post the market. He believes Kevin O’Connell’s offense will remain efficient inside the 10—especially with the McCarthy-to-Jefferson connection stretching defenses—and that veteran Aaron Jones will cede most goal-line carries to the 225-pound Mason. After watching Jones score just two rushing TDs on 11 carries inside the five last year, Erickson projects Mason for double-digit scores and views him as a live longshot in the league-leader market.

Andrew Erickson wants exposure to every Jordan Love passing over—yards, touchdowns, and eventually interceptions—because he expects Green Bay to live in track-meets. Sportsbooks have opened Love at just 3,500.5 yards and 24.5 TDs, numbers Erickson calls "really low" for a quarterback whose defense projects bottom-five in EPA after the front office ignored edge and secondary help. He anticipates 35-plus pass attempts most weeks, pointing to Love’s league-leading 10 games with 275+ yards last season when the Packers were forced into shootouts. While Erickson and Furman both doubt those stats translate into wins, the volume makes the overs attractive betting positions.

Joe Pisapia bet Aaron Jones under 750.5 regular-season rushing yards at –114. Pisapia expects Kevin O’Connell to lean on the younger, fresher Jordan Mason between the tackles and at the goal line, leaving Jones in a reduced change-of-pace role. He pointed out that the 29-year-old Jones has 1,400 NFL touches on his odometer and missed four games last year with knee and hamstring issues—wear and tear that makes a 750-yard threshold ambitious. With Mason siphoning early-down work and J.J. McCarthy likely adding designed QB runs, Pisapia sees a crowded backfield that caps Jones’ volume well below the posted prop.

Andrew Erickson passed on the Vikings chalk and instead grabbed Chicago at +550 to win the North, citing the NFL’s long-standing "worst-to-first" phenomenon. Since divisional realignment in 2002, at least one last-place team has jumped to first in 18 of 22 seasons, and Erickson notes last year was one of just three exceptions. He argues the Bears are the only 2024 cellar-dweller with a realistic path: New England faces Buffalo, Tennessee must overtake Houston, while Chicago benefits from likely regression in Detroit and Green Bay and an untested rookie quarterback in Minnesota. Erickson believes Ben Johnson will immediately elevate Caleb Williams and views the +550 as mis-pricing that trend-driven upside.

Terrell Furman Jr. urged bettors to grab the stray +400 prices on Minnesota to win the NFC North. Furman thinks the market is mis-pricing Green Bay—second favorite at +260—because the Packers need a borderline MVP season from Jordan Love to hide what he calls "a really, really bad defense." He reiterated that Detroit and Green Bay are both setup for regression while Kevin O’Connell and Brian Flores give the Vikings the division’s best coaching combo. Furman believes a healthy J.J. McCarthy only has to be average for Minnesota to clear ten wins, making 4-1 a clear value overlay compared to the much shorter Lions number.

Joe Pisapia labeled the Vikings the best value in the NFC North outright market at +290. He sees no clear favorite—every team has plus money—and believes bettors should side with the franchise that pairs an 11-win-average coach with a top-five defensive coordinator. Given Detroit’s schedule concerns and Green Bay’s volatility, Pisapia wants the longest price of the credible contenders and will live with any McCarthy growing pains, trusting O’Connell/Flores to navigate the division.

Terrell Furman Jr. slammed the Vikings over, calling Kevin O’Connell "what Brian Daboll wishes he were" after winning 13 games with mediocre quarterbacking. He expects Brian Flores, snubbed again for head-coach vacancies, to run another blitz-heavy revenge tour that masks secondary talent gaps. With the division in flux and O’Connell’s system historically QB-friendly, Furman projects 11–12 wins and a realistic division crown, making the 8.5 and 10.5 overs both playable.

Andrew Erickson likes the Vikings over 8.5 wins at –135 and sees merit in the +200 over 10.5. He pointed out that Kevin O’Connell has averaged 11.3 victories, topping 13 wins in two of three seasons when not ravaged by QB injuries. If J.J. McCarthy merely matches Sam Darnold’s 2024 efficiency, Erickson believes the Flores defense and an upgraded interior line create a clear double-digit ceiling. He will likely wait until after the Week-1 trip to Chicago for a better price but ultimately wants an over ticket in pocket.

Terrell Furman Jr. wants exposure to every Packers under on the board, even the plus-240 alternative under 7.5. He sees zero evidence that Jordan Love will progress, calling the offensive line "a sieve" and the defense "non-existent." Furman expects Green Bay to rely on late-game miracles because once they trail, Love’s 3.1% INT rate spikes; he plans to bet Love’s 0.5-INT prop weekly. Without defensive stops and with turnover-prone QB play, Furman believes a 6-7 win floor is realistic, making all three win-total unders (7.5, 9.5, 11.5) viable.

Terrell Furman Jr. wants exposure to every Packers under on the board, even the plus-240 alternative under 7.5. He sees zero evidence that Jordan Love will progress, calling the offensive line "a sieve" and the defense "non-existent." Furman expects Green Bay to rely on late-game miracles because once they trail, Love’s 3.1% INT rate spikes; he plans to bet Love’s 0.5-INT prop weekly. Without defensive stops and with turnover-prone QB play, Furman believes a 6-7 win floor is realistic, making all three win-total unders (7.5, 9.5, 11.5) viable.

Terrell Furman Jr. also took Detroit’s under, projecting exactly 10 wins because of four nasty outdoor dates—at Baltimore, Kansas City, Washington and Philadelphia in November/December. Furman joked that he and Jared Goff are "indoor cats," pointing to Goff’s 55-degree threshold and 7-12 lifetime record in games under 50°F. He added that kicking and wind variability further erode the Lions’ dome-built edge and expects those games, plus a more competitive NFC North, to tack on at least two extra losses. Furman is comfortable betting under 10.5 despite Campbell’s ATS prowess.

Andrew Erickson leaned under 10.5 Lions wins at –125, citing a brutal six-game outdoor road schedule—Baltimore, Kansas City, Washington, Philadelphia and two other winning teams—that replaces last year’s climate-controlled track meets. Erickson reminded listeners that Detroit played only two outdoor games in 2024 and believes Jared Goff’s well-documented cold-weather splits (career passer rating dips from 99 indoors to 84 outdoors) will show up. He respects Dan Campbell’s 63% ATS record but thinks market inflation, coordinator turnover and tougher travel combine to cap Detroit at nine or ten victories.

Joe Pisapia backed the Bears to clear 8.5 wins, arguing that Caleb Williams’ second-year leap gives Chicago the only ascending quarterback situation in a division where two clubs are likely to regress and another is breaking in a rookie signal-caller. Pisapia views Williams as the division’s highest-ceiling passer and noted that OC Ben Johnson’s scheme has historically produced fast starts for young quarterbacks. With the Lions and Packers both projected to take a step back, Pisapia sees an 9-10 win path for Chicago and is comfortable laying standard juice on the over.

Andrew Erickson leaned under on the Packers’ 2025 win total, citing a roster that is "horrible up and down" on defense. Green Bay ignored glaring edge and secondary needs in the draft, choosing another wide receiver instead. While a healthy Jordan Love should juice fantasy box scores—Erickson envisions shoot-outs at Lambeau with Love’s YOLO style producing both splash plays and pick-sixes—he doubts that translates to wins. The Packers will have to hang 30+ regularly because they cannot stop anyone, and Love’s tendency to force throws when asked to carry the offense raises turnover risk. Erickson concluded the current market number is "pretty spot on" but would shade under, expecting more 34-31 type losses than victories.

Andrew Erickson predicted a two-phase season for Minnesota. Coming off a torn meniscus and a rookie red-shirt year, J.J. McCarthy missed every physical rep last offseason, so Erickson expects Kevin O’Connell to hide him early: bolster the interior line, feature Jordan Mason and the run game, and ask McCarthy to "make a couple key throws, be efficient, not turn it over." That run-heavy script could mean an underwhelming first month, but Erickson likes buying the Vikings in second-half futures or division markets because once McCarthy’s live-rep count rises, the system’s efficiency ceiling resembles the 13-win version we saw two years ago. Fantasy-wise, he recommends targeting Minnesota skill players in Best Ball formats that reward late-season scoring spikes.

Terrell Furman Jr. advised taking the Vikings’ 2025 regular-season win-total over, saying Minnesota can clear the number even if J.J. McCarthy is merely average. Furman argued that Kevin O’Connell has shown "QB-Whistler" skills—he dragged Sam Darnold to the playoffs last year and even kicked the tires on Daniel Jones mid-season—so a healthier, high-upside McCarthy should be more than serviceable. The real edge, he said, is Brian Flores’ defense, which "was balling last year," finishing top-five in pressure rate and turnovers forced despite depth issues at corner. Flores trusts Isaiah Rogers to anchor the position group, and Furman expects another havoc-heavy approach that shortens fields for the offense. With the Lions and Packers both projected to regress, Furman believes a path exists to double-digit wins and even a division crown.

Terrell Furman Jr. urged bettors to play Chicago’s win-total under and look to fade them early in 2025. He is skeptical that new DC Dennis Allen will replicate his late-COVID Saints success right away, predicting "growing pains" as the unit learns a new system. Offensively, Furman still sees red flags: Caleb Williams holds the ball too long and melts under pressure, and the rookie head coach/second-year QB combo is a recipe for inconsistency. Furman argued that unless the Packers and Lions "completely bottom out," Chicago remains the North’s weakest link, projecting closer to .500 with, as he put it, "more covers than wins." That profile, in his view, makes an under ticket and early-season fades the sharp side.

Andrew Erickson echoed the fade on Detroit and leaned to the under on their win total. Erickson emphasized that coordinator turnover seldom leaves a team unscathed and compared the 2025 Lions to classic 'regression poster-children.' Beyond losing both coordinators, Detroit also has depth issues up front after Frank Ragnow’s departure. Erickson warned that if last year’s offensive injury luck flips, the club could suffer a bigger step back than the public expects because "good offenses stay good, bad defenses fluctuate"—and the Lions can’t afford hits on the side of the ball that actually carried them. Even with Dan Campbell’s stellar ATS record, Erickson sees too many variables breaking against Detroit to trust an over ticket.

Terrell Furman Jr. said the Lions are a prime regression candidate and advised betting their 2025 win-total under. He pointed to an offseason exodus that stripped Detroit of its offensive coordinator (Ben Johnson to Chicago), defensive coordinator and passing-game coordinator Tanner Engstrand, meaning brand-new playbooks on both sides of the ball. Furman reminded listeners that the last time we saw Detroit they were "destroyed by the Commanders," so the idea they will simply pick up where they left off is, in his words, "cock-eyed optimism." He added that losing All-Pro center Frank Ragnow leaves the offensive line one injury away from disaster and questioned Dan Campbell’s game-management history in big spots. With so many moving pieces, Furman expects Detroit to look beatable immediately and thinks the current market number is at least a win too high.

Mike Wright called Tyler Warren his favorite rookie tight end and a slam-dunk in the ninth round at TE11—the third-highest rookie tight-end ADP in fantasy history. Wright argued Warren could finish second on the Colts in targets because Indianapolis still lacks a clear hierarchy between Michael Pittman and Josh Downs. He labeled Warren a “super freak” athlete who immediately leapfrogs the middling upside of veterans like Dallas Goedert and Jake Ferguson being drafted around him. Wright’s approach is to stream tight end once you’re outside the elite tier, so he loves taking the Week 1 swing on Warren’s 10-target upside knowing the opportunity cost is minimal. With Anthony Richardson targeting the middle of the field and Colts OC Jim Bob Cooter historically featuring athletic tight ends, Wright believes Warren offers a realistic path to mid-season top-six production while the rest of the position flounders.

Andy Holloway said Travis Hunter is “too hot to handle” at his current seventh-round, WR35 price because the Jaguars may not give him a full allotment of offensive snaps. Holloway worries Hunter’s desire to moonlight at cornerback will cap him at roughly 55 percent route participation and open the door for week-to-week role changes if Jacksonville suffers injuries in the secondary. He contrasted Hunter with fellow rookie Tetairoa McMillan—drafted in the same range—who projects as Carolina’s unquestioned No. 1 target. Holloway also questioned whether Trevor Lawrence can consistently support a second fantasy-useful receiver behind Brian Thomas Jr. Given the ambiguity in both snap share and pecking order, Holloway prefers safer volume bets going at the same ADP and will pass on Hunter in season-long and best-ball drafts unless camp reports confirm a full-time receiver role.

Jason Moore declared Travis Hunter the best wide receiver in the 2025 class and a "no-doubt" pick at WR35. Moore highlighted Hunter’s 4.34 speed, 96th-percentile agility and elite ball-tracking that translated to 3.3 yards per route run at Colorado. He expects Doug Pederson to feature Hunter immediately as Trevor Lawrence’s downfield alpha, noting the Jaguars have 152 vacated targets after Calvin Ridley’s exit. A 24 % rookie target share would land Hunter around 75-1,050-6, which Moore believes is a realistic projection with top-20 upside if Jacksonville’s pass rate climbs back above league average. He urged drafters to scoop Hunter before preseason hype pushes him into Round 5.

Jason Moore flipped from "undraftable" to bullish on Tyreek Hill after Jonnu Smith’s departure vacated 105 short-area targets. Moore moved Hill up to WR10–14 in his rankings, predicting a rebound to a 28 % target share on Tua Tagovailoa’s 67 % completion rate. Hill finished WR19 last year despite a lingering wrist injury and a career-low red-zone target rate; Moore expects both metrics to regress positively. With Miami’s offense poised to funnel lay-ups back to Hill, he sees 100-plus receptions and 1,400 yards as a realistic median outcome, advising drafters to pounce if Hill slips into the early third round.

Jason Moore called Jaxon Smith-Njigba’s late-second ADP (2.11, WR12) "too hot to handle." Moore cited Mike Wright’s research showing only 8 of 19 sophomore breakout receivers met or beat lofty Year-3 ADP, with just two becoming league winners. JSN already jumped to WR10 last season on a torrid second-half pace, so drafters are paying for near-perfect progression. Moore prefers scooping Marvin Harrison Jr., Garrett Wilson or DK Metcalf a round later and argues that whiffing on a second-round pick with just a 42 % hit rate is catastrophic. Unless JSN falls into Round 3, Moore is out.

Andy Holloway labeled DeAndre Swift a glaring seventh-round value, noting that Swift has never finished worse than RB23 in any season despite injury hiccups and crowded backfields. Chicago just signed him to be its every-down back behind an offensive line that quietly finished 12th in adjusted line yards over the final eight weeks. Holloway expects the Bears to give Swift his largest touch share yet, forecasting 260 touches, 50 receptions and double-digit touchdown upside. With that workload, he sees a top-12 ceiling and believes RB29 represents Swift’s injury-adjusted floor.

Andy Holloway argued that rookie Quinshon Judkins is the cheapest path to an immediate starting running-back job this year. Holloway pointed out that Kevin Stefanski has repeatedly leaned on a single workhorse whenever he trusts the player—Nick Chubb averaged 65-plus percent of snaps before his injury—and the current Browns depth chart offers Judkins a clear runway to duplicate that role. Draft rooms are ignoring him because nobody wants to click on a Browns player, pushing Judkins into Round 7 at RB29, three rounds behind fellow rookie Omarion Hampton. Holloway expects Judkins to absorb most of Cleveland’s red-zone carries and short-yardage screens from Day 1, making a 250-touch season well within reach and turning him into a smash value for both Season-Long and Best-Ball drafters.

Jason Moore loves Omarion Hampton’s talent—calling him a perfect three-down back with elite pass protection, breakaway juice, and first-round draft capital—but still labeled the rookie "too hot to handle" at 4.11 as RB18. Moore expects Jim Harbaugh and Greg Roman to open 2025 in a committee with Najee Harris, noting the Chargers pursued Harris aggressively and continue to praise him. Because Harris is "good enough" to keep drives on schedule, Moore doubts the coaching staff will feel forced to hand Hampton a bell-cow workload this season. He contrasted Hampton’s uncertain timeline with Quinshon Judkins, who should start Week 1 in Cleveland yet goes three rounds later. Moore warned that drafting Hampton means accepting a potentially mid-season or even 2026 breakout while passing on immediate contributors at wide receiver and tight end. Unless camp reports confirm a 60-plus-percent snap share early, he advises letting someone else absorb the risk.

Mike Wright called Jared Goff the "worst pick" in single-QB formats at his current 8.02 ADP. Although Goff is one of only three quarterbacks (with Hurts and Allen) to post top-10 fantasy finishes each of the last three seasons, Wright argued that those totals mask week-to-week inconsistency. He compared Goff to vintage Philip Rivers—good season-long numbers that rarely win a fantasy week. Wright pointed to Detroit's top-five rushing attack, Ben Johnson’s departure, and the loss of All-Pro center Frank Ragnow as factors that could further cap touchdown volume while exposing Goff’s long-standing struggles under pressure. He rattled off a list of late-round alternatives—Bo Nix, Kyler Murray, Jordan Love, Brock Purdy, and Dak Prescott—available multiple rounds later with higher weekly ceilings. Wright’s bottom line: in Round 8 you either want a true every-week starter or you should still be hammering skill positions; Goff is neither.

Mike Wright believes the market has R.J. Harvey priced correctly as RB24 in the sixth round, arguing the rookie owns the inside track to Denver’s starting job. He cited league history—“the first running back drafted almost always opens Week 1 as the starter”—and called Harvey the “more explosive player” compared to veteran J.K. Dobbins at this stage of their careers. Wright noted Harvey’s 96th-percentile Burst Score, his 24-touchdown senior year at UCF, and Sean Payton’s long track record of feeding versatile backs (Alvin Kamara, Pierre Thomas). While conceding Dobbins is a worthy late flyer, Wright expects Harvey to command the bulk of high-value touches—goal-line carries and screens—making him a solid anchor RB2 for managers who start WR-heavy. His advice: embrace Harvey’s sixth-round cost before a strong preseason pushes him into the fifth.

Jason Moore called J.K. Dobbins one of the best risk-reward plays on the entire draft board. He noted that Sean Payton keeps saying the Broncos’ backfield is “too early to project”, which leaves the door wide open for Dobbins to beat out rookie R.J. Harvey. Moore highlighted that Dobbins is currently RB43 with a 12th-round ADP, yet he is only two years removed from averaging 5.9 yards per carry in Baltimore and arriving in Denver with no guaranteed money on Harvey’s deal to block him. If the veteran wins the starting job—or even a 1A share—managers are getting an explosive runner with league-winning upside for the price of a bench stash. Moore urged season-long and best-ball drafters to scoop him everywhere, calling it a “no-brainer flyer” given the shallow pool of backs who can still capture 250 touches that late.

Holloway said he is ‘confident in DK Metcalf’ and views him as a glaring ADP value. With Pittsburgh’s wide-receiver room otherwise consisting of situational players like Calvin Austin, Metcalf projects for alpha-level volume from Aaron Rodgers despite Arthur Smith’s run-leaning tendencies. Holloway expects double-digit targets to be the norm and believes Metcalf’s current mid-third-round price tag in season-long and best-ball drafts ignores both the consolidated target tree and Rodgers’ historical efficiency throwing to big perimeter threats.