Middlekauff! likes Denver at 12-1 to win the AFC, framing them as a potential early-Russell-Wilson Seahawks redux. He envisions No. 12 pick Bo Nix managing the offense efficiently while Sean Payton leans on a defense loaded with speed at every level, including first-round Texas edge rusher Jonah Ellis flashing in preseason. Critics cite last year’s schedule of backup QBs, but Middlekauff! trusts the raw talent after seeing the pass rush and secondary pop on film. Add in Denver’s altitude-driven January home-field edge—historically a nightmare for Tom Brady and others—and he sees a realistic route to the AFC Championship if the Broncos snag the No. 2 seed or better. At double-digit odds, he believes the payoff outweighs the risk in a conference where only Kansas City is priced as a clear favorite.

Middlekauff! argued Saquon Barkley at 60-1 is one of the few non-quarterback MVP futures that is not a donation. He drew a direct comparison to Terrell Davis: a signature Super Bowl year followed by a 2,000-yard encore that snagged the award. If Philadelphia steamrolls to 15-16 wins, Middlekauff! can see Barkley posting a 20-TD, 1,800-yard season that forces voters to break QB tradition, especially with potential fatigue toward Allen, Jackson, and Mahomes. He acknowledged the ‘Tush Push’ might siphon some goal-line looks, but reminded listeners that Davis captured MVP despite sharing touches with a fullback on the goal line. The Eagles’ national profile and Barkley’s star power create the narrative runway needed for a long-shot ticket to stay alive deep into December.

John Middlekauff! pointed to Baker Mayfield at 25-1 on DraftKings as his favorite off-the-board MVP flyer. The path: Mayfield rides a loaded pass-catching group to a 46-TD breakout, Tampa wins the NFC South by multiple games, and narrative momentum snowballs around the former No. 1 pick’s career resurrection. Middlekauff! stressed that voters love redemption arcs when the raw counting stats are gaudy and noted Mayfield would be competing against voter fatigue for Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, and Patrick Mahomes. If the Buccaneers land the NFC’s No. 2 seed, he thinks Mayfield’s name recognition plus a statistical eruption would keep him firmly in the conversation despite longer preseason odds.

John Middlekauff! agreed the Jaguars could crater but volunteered Atlanta as an equally live candidate to draft inside the top-five. He noted the Falcons have lost multiple starting offensive linemen in the past 48 hours—one carted off, another out six-to-eight weeks—undercutting the one thing Arthur Smith’s offenses leaned on when they managed seven wins. Middlekauff! argued that if Kirk Cousins or Michael Penix misses any time behind that deteriorating front, a mediocre six-win projection could freefall to three victories in a hurry as veterans tune out a lame-duck staff. With futures markets still pricing Atlanta as a playoff dark horse, he believes their “fewest wins” odds are being mis-priced and should be hunted for value.

Joe Osborne said the 28-to-1 price on Jacksonville to finish with the fewest wins is worth a sprinkle. Osborne laid out several red-flag ingredients: first-time NFL play-caller Liam Cohen jumping straight from Kentucky, lingering doubts that Trevor Lawrence will ever justify the pre-draft hype, and the franchise experimenting with two-way rookie Travis Hunter rather than fixing the roster’s real holes. Osborne added that Jacksonville’s offensive line is already a concern and the AFC South no longer offers the automatic wins it once did. Put together, he sees a clear path from an expected six-win baseline to a true collapse that cashes the “fewest wins” ticket at a juicy number.

Middlekauff circled Tennessee as a sleeper to flirt with .500 or better at long odds. He believes last year’s roster was "solid" but submarined by "atrocious" quarterback play. If rookie Cam Ward merely grades out as the league’s 15th-best passer—he compared Ward’s college dominance to pre-NFL Jayden Daniels—then eight wins and wild-card contention are realistic. He also noted quotes from the building that Ward has impressed veterans and coaches, plus an underrated defense that quietly kept games close in 2024 despite zero offensive help. In a division he already called weak, Middlekauff thinks the Titans are mis-priced.

Middlekauff is aggressively fading Miami, saying "I think they're going to stink." He sees head coach Mike McDaniel already looking "ready to get fired" due to constant injuries and roster holes left by the front office. Chemistry concerns between Tyreek Hill and Tua Tagovailoa and the perennial "two-injuries-away" fragility amplify the downside. Middlekauff even questioned whether the job will attract top coaching candidates next offseason, framing the organization as unstable despite the attractive South Florida market and deep-pocketed ownership.

Middlekauff advised fading Cincinnati in title futures, likening them to a high-powered college offense that cannot stop anyone. He cited a stat showing Trey Hendrickson produced 48 % of the Bengals’ sacks last season—roughly 15 percentage points higher dependency than any other NFL pass-rusher—leaving the defense "below average" if Hendrickson regresses or misses time. He quipped Washington would hang "500 yards" on them if both sides played hard, and sees a 9- or 10-win ceiling that is insufficient for deep playoff runs despite Joe Burrow’s brilliance.

Middlekauff does not view San Francisco as a true Super Bowl threat and projects them to finish around 10 victories—below the 10.5 market win total Joe Osborne referenced. His reasoning: the 49ers lead the league in injuries under Kyle Shanahan, regularly cycling through “backups to backups.” Even with Robert Saleh returning to run the defense and an easy schedule, Middlekauff doubts their aging, injury-prone core can stay intact long enough to host playoff games. He specifically flagged Week 1 at Seattle as a likely early stumble for what he called an already undermanned roster.

John Middlekauff called the Texans a “stone-cold lock” to win the AFC South at +105. His scouting contacts believe DeMeco Ryans’ unit could legitimately finish as the league’s No. 1 defense after adding another year of growth for Will Anderson, Derek Stingley and the rest of a young core. Middlekauff argued the Texans own the only trustworthy coach–quarterback pairing in the division, with C.J. Stroud already coming off 10 wins and now projecting for “12-ish.” He dismissed divisional competition: the Colts are, in his words, an “embarrassment” at quarterback, the Jaguars remain “untrustworthy,” and the Titans offer “no threat.” With an improved offensive line and full off-season continuity in the play-calling, Middlekauff is comfortable betting Houston to three-peat in the division and flirt with the conference’s top seed.

Tony Farmer doubled down on Joe Burrow, backing him at +550 to lead the league in touchdown passes. Beyond Cincinnati’s leaky defense forcing high-volume passing, Farmer highlighted that Burrow doesn’t siphon touchdowns with his legs the way Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, or Josh Allen do. Those quarterbacks “cannibalize themselves” with rushing scores, whereas Burrow funnels virtually every Bengals red-zone TD through the air.

Tony Farmer likes Joe Burrow at +500 to lead the NFL in passing yards. He normally hunts longer shots but believes the Bengals’ "so bad" defense will keep Burrow in shootouts all season, pushing his attempt volume past competitors. With health no longer a question coming out of camp, Farmer views the 5-to-1 number as fair value for Burrow to pace the league.

Tony Farmer said he is fading Jared Goff in 2025 prop markets, noting that Detroit replaced "one of the most creative minds in the NFL" with a clear downgrade at offensive coordinator. Farmer added that the Lions’ offensive line projects worse than last year, further dampening Goff’s efficiency ceiling. With both play-caller and protection trending the wrong way, Farmer prefers unders on Goff’s passing yards and touchdowns.

Tony Farmer urged bettors to fade Matthew Stafford’s season-long passing props. While some point to Stafford gutting it out in Detroit years ago, Farmer reminded listeners that the quarterback is now significantly older and the chronic back problems have only gotten worse. He expects missed games or diminished arm strength to undercut Stafford’s totals and sees little upside in backing any overs.

Tony Farmer advised betting the under on Tua Tagovailoa’s 2025 passing totals. He cited Miami’s "questionable offensive line" and Tagovailoa’s documented concussion history as a combination that raises both efficiency and games-played risk. Farmer sees enough downside volatility that rather than avoiding the market entirely, he prefers taking the under on any volume-based props for Tagovailoa.

Tony Farmer said Caleb Williams is a strong bet to smash his 2025 passing props and is even worth a sprinkle in the +3,700 MVP market. Farmer argued that going from the Matt Eberflus/Shane Waldron combo to Ben Johnson calling plays is "one of the worst situations to one of the best." He listed an upgraded supporting cast—DJ Moore, Rome Odunze, Cole Kmet plus top-10 draft picks Colson Loveland and Luther Burden—and noted that even depth WR Olamide Zaccheaus caught 45 balls last year. Pro Football Focus grades Chicago’s offensive line 4th overall, and Farmer believes even a top-12 finish would be a huge step forward. The kicker: Williams threw just one interception over his final 11 games of 2024, and that was a Week 17 Hail Mary. With excuses gone, Farmer likes Williams’ overs in season-long passing yards (12th on the board) and touchdowns.

Johnny Venezia warned drafters about Kyren Williams at his RB12, 26th-overall slot. Williams lived off pure volume in 2024—316 carries for 1,299 yards and 14 touchdowns—yet his 4.1 yards per carry hints at looming efficiency regression. Venezia noted that backs coming off 300-carry seasons rarely repeat and that any dip in touches would crush Williams’ value. He also flagged Matthew Stafford’s lingering back injury; if the quarterback misses time, Williams will face more stacked boxes and fewer scoring chances. Venezia still likes the player, just not at a late-second, early-third cost given the workload and health concerns.

Johnny Venezia likes Garrett Wilson the player but not his price tag—WR14, 33rd overall. Wilson produced 101 catches, 1,104 yards and seven touchdowns last year with Aaron Rodgers, yet Venezia predicts more volatility now that Justin Fields is under center. Fields’ run-first profile and erratic accuracy could turn Wilson into a roller-coaster WR2 rather than the dependable weekly anchor managers need from a third-round pick. Venezia would pivot to Tee Higgins or Jaxon Smith-Njigba in the same tier, arguing those offenses project steadier target volume.

Johnny Venezia advised fading Tyreek Hill at his WR12, 28th-overall cost. Hill’s 2024 line fell to 81 receptions, 959 yards and six touchdowns on just 123 targets—his lightest workload since 2019. Hill even admitted he "wasn’t 100 percent sure" of his role, and Venezia highlighted contradictory statements between Hill and Mike McDaniel as signs of a chaotic locker room. Venezia believes McDaniel could be the first head coach fired and wants no part of the Dolphins passing game at current prices. Given the turmoil, he would rather invest that late-second pick in stabler situations like Bucky Irving in Tampa.

Johnny Venezia said Brock Bowers is being drafted at his absolute ceiling. Bowers exploded last season for 112 catches, 1,194 yards and five touchdowns, but Venezia reminded listeners that a 25-plus-percent target share from a tight end is historically hard to sustain—especially now that Geno Smith will spread the ball around. Bowers carries a TE1 label with a 17.5 overall ADP, meaning managers must pass on bell-cow backs like Josh Jacobs or alpha wideouts such as Drake London and A.J. Brown. Venezia expects a good year, just not a repeat of last year’s monster, and prefers to spend that second-round capital on positions that offer scarcer weekly ceilings.

Josh declared Miles Sanders a landmine at his current ADP. Sanders has only "mixed in" with the first-team offense while nursing an injury, and camp buzz says little beyond that he merely exists in the rotation. Josh believes the veteran looks "totally washed" and would not be surprised if the Cowboys move on from him within weeks. Dallas complicates matters by carving out snaps for a fullback and gadget touches for wideout KaVontae Turpin, while Javonte Williams handles passing downs and even George Pickens is getting goal-line work. Josh predicted the result will be the league’s ugliest committee, leaving Sanders without reliable weekly volume and making him an easy fade in every draft format.

Re-watching 2024 tape convinced Josh that Josh Downs is "a total baller, one of the best slot receivers in the game" who can also win deep when asked. While Michael Pittman’s presence caps ceiling, Daniel Jones’ heavy short-area usage under Shane Steichen should flood the slot with quick targets. Downs’ talent plus scheme fit makes him an appealing bench upside play in the double-digit rounds, especially in PPR formats where high-catch outings swing matchups.

Hayden warned that drafting Roschon Johnson is little more than praying the backfield stays murky. Johnson has been sidelined for weeks, drawing zero beat-writer buzz, while seventh-round rookie Kyle Monangai impressed coaches and seized practice reps. In Ben Johnson’s new scheme Johnson would need goal-line touchdowns to matter because he lacks explosive traits. Hayden would rather churn the roster for a potential veteran trade pickup than stash Johnson as a hopeful lottery ticket.

Josh hasn’t drafted Wan'Dale Robinson once, calling him "just not my type." If Russell Wilson wins the Giants job the offense will be "touchdown to check-down," funneling short throws to backs rather than a seven-yard slot. Hayden piled on, noting Robinson turned heavy volume into one of the worst yards-per-target seasons on record. Without explosive efficiency or a clear red-zone role, they see no reason to spend a late pick on him.

Josh dismissed Trey Benson in Round 12, saying film shows a back who bounces outside at the first flash of color and lacks the downhill temperament Jonathan Gannon demands. Because James Conner still hammers between the tackles and Mari Demercado is a better passing-down option, Josh does not expect Benson to see standalone snaps or inherit the every-down role if Conner misses time. Hayden agreed, ranking handcuffs like Tyler Allgeier and Isaac Guerendo ahead of Benson for both contingency and week-to-week value.

Josh believes drafters still have Tony Pollard too low (ADP 74) and called him a "total smash" in the sixth round as an RB2. Pollard ripped away the 1A/1B split last year despite Will Levis piloting a dysfunctional offense and while only one season removed from leg surgery. Now he’s another year healthier, runs behind a reconstructed front (new left tackle, former LT shifted to RT, veteran RG shore-up) and benefits from Cam Ward replacing Levis, which should lengthen drives and scoring chances. Josh treats last season’s production as Pollard’s floor and thinks the Titans’ offensive leap could push him back into weekly RB1 territory.

Josh refused to click Tyjae Spears in Round 11, calling high-ankle sprains “the stone-cold worst” for a runner who wins with violent lateral cuts. Spears already carried durability flags—size concerns and a previous ACL issue—and another lower-body injury gives coaches a fresh excuse to limit him. At the same price he prefers upside swings such as Braylon Allen, Austin Ekeler, Bhayshul Tuten or Jaden Blue, arguing those backs offer clearer paths to expanded roles while Spears’ volatility could leave a roster spot dead early in the season.

Josh said fantasy drafters should bump Tyler Warren ahead of every other Colts pass catcher. He expects Shane Steichen to run a constricted, quick-game offense built around Daniel Jones’ short reads, noting the staff has already featured manufactured tight-end screens and routes inside five yards. Warren was drafted ahead of edge defenders in April, a clear signal the front office views him as an offensive focal point. With Jones unlikely to push the ball vertically and the coaches prioritizing on-schedule throws, Warren projects to soak up the easy buttons in this attack, making him the most bankable piece of the passing game at his current late-round ADP.

Hayden Winks labeled Michael Pittman Jr. the round-10 land mine because Shane Steichen’s planned "PPR scam" offense offers volume, but it will be split three ways and attached to questionable quarterback play. Steichen named Daniel Jones his season-long starter and said he wants to replicate Jones’s 2022 Giants campaign—a system that ranked dead last in deep-ball rate and relied heavily on RPOs and quick hitters. That approach funnels targets to the slot and tight ends, putting Pittman in direct competition with ascendant Josh Downs on choice routes and first-round rookie tight end Tyler Warren on RPO slants. Downs’s skill set mirrors the receivers Jones fed in New York (Wandale Robinson, Richie James), and Warren gives the Colts a single every-down TE instead of last year’s three-man rotation. Hayden expects plenty of 3-WR looks and short-area congestion, reducing Pittman’s target share ceiling and leaving him a "vanilla" option who needs sheer volume to pay off. He prefers betting on the younger, cheaper Downs or Warren for upside.

Josh explained why he is skipping Travis Etienne in round nine and peppering drafts with Tank Bigsby and rookie Bachel Tootin instead. Etienne’s fantasy relevance has depended almost entirely on huge volume; efficiency has cratered. His 2.48 yards after contact per rush ranked 43rd last year, and he forced a missed tackle only once every 50 carries—the worst rate in the league. Preseason usage suggested early downs belong to Bigsby, leaving Etienne as a pass-down specialist, a role that will be squeezed further if Tootin—whom the staff reportedly loves—earns work by mid-season. Josh likened the setup to Tampa Bay’s 2024 backfield, where the cheapest option (Bucky Irving) proved the right bet. Given Etienne’s name value, Josh expects home-league drafters to overdraft him, making the cost/benefit skew even harder to justify.

Hayden Winks advised passing on Khalil Shakir at his round-8/9 price, stressing that a fresh high-ankle sprain removes what little upside the slot man had. Shakir managed just five WR2 weeks and one WR1 finish last year despite ranking near the top of the league in yards after catch. The Bills are flirting with more 12-personnel looks, which would push Shakir off the field in favor of Dalton Kincaid, and they imported Joshua Palmer as another slot-capable veteran. Rich Hribar’s chart shows Shakir has run only 29 routes in one- or two-WR sets over the past two seasons; Hayden underscored that stat as proof the coaching staff does not view him as a base-package player. Shakir also saw only one of Buffalo’s 25 end-zone targets in 2024, meaning he needs long YAC touchdowns—something far less likely while playing through an ankle injury that saps lateral explosiveness. Hayden concluded Shakir is draftable around pick 100 in full-PPR formats but is a fade in half-PPR or best-ball builds where ceiling trumps floor.

Josh said fantasy drafters should skip Chris Godwin in the eighth round because the medical and situational clouds are just too thick. Godwin is still rehabbing a dislocated ankle that broke the bone and shredded multiple ligaments, required a second cleanup surgery and, according to every Buccaneers beat writer, is trending toward the PUP list. Josh’s baseline expectation is that Godwin misses all of September, takes another month to ramp up, and even then may not look like himself until 2026. Hayden chimed in that this type of injury often takes "a second or third year" for explosiveness to return and explained the cleanup procedure was likely removing bone or ligament debris. While Godwin sits, first-round rookie Emeka Egbuka has reportedly been "awesome" in camp and could seize the No. 2 role permanently. With similarly priced wideouts such as Matthew Golden and Egbuka on the board, Josh argued there is no reason to spend an eighth-round pick on a wideout who could be an October stash at best and a wasted roster spot at worst.

Hayden Winks advised passing on Evan Engram at his seventh-round price, citing scheme and personnel concerns in Sean Payton’s Denver offense. Payton historically asks his in-line tight ends to block, and Engram’s 238-pound frame isn’t built for that role. Denver also boasts an army of big receivers—Troy Franklin, Pat Bryant, Devon Valey—poised to keep the offense in three-wide sets that could bump Engram to the sideline. Winks ranks him TE11 yet the market takes him ahead of comparable or better options such as Tyler Warren, Colson Loveland, and Tucker Kraft who go one to two rounds later. He would rather scoop the round-seven wide-receiver values (Ricky Pearsall through Stefon Diggs) and attack the Warren/Kraft tier later, viewing Engram’s median outcome as a ho-hum low-end TE1 without differentiating upside.

Josh warned drafters to fade Baker Mayfield at his sixth-round, QB7 ADP because virtually every 2024 efficiency metric screams regression. Per Rich Rebar, Mayfield’s 7.2 % touchdown rate dwarfed the 4.9 % mark from his first Tampa season. The Bucs led the league in third-down success, Mayfield completed 73 % of red-zone passes (league average 58 %), and 37 % of those throws became touchdowns—second only to Lamar Jackson. That gaudy production now collides with a worse environment: All-Pro LT Tristan Wirfs is expected to miss "a handful of games," Chris Godwin is still banged up, and first-time play-caller Josh Grizzard replaces Liam Cohen, whose quick-game sequencing helped Mayfield complete 78 % of throws within 2.5 seconds (27 TD, 3 INT). Josh ranks him QB12 and would rather wait two extra rounds for Brock Purdy, Kyler Murray, or even rookie Drake Maye than pay the round-six tax.

Hayden Winks selected DeAndre Swift as the shakiest round-five option, pointing to Ben Johnson’s two-season history of limiting Swift near the goal line—just 11 inside-10 carries and 7 + 8 TDs, 38th among backs each year. With Johnson now calling plays in Chicago, Winks expects bigger backs Roschon Johnson or rookie Kyle Monaghanai to siphon short-yardage work, forcing Swift to rely on long plays and receptions. Although the depth chart behind him is unproven, Winks projected Swift to straddle the RB2/3 border—more flex than foundation—making him noticeably weaker than other Round-5 hits such as Travian Henderson and James Conner.

Josh Norris advised fading Breece Hall at his early-fourth ADP after preseason usage and coach quotes pointed to a two- or even three-back committee. Hall has ceded every third-down snap and most short-yardage work to Isaiah Davis and Braylon Allen, the latter of whom posted better broken-tackle and success-rate numbers last year. Norris compared Hall’s projected 2025 role to 2023 James Cook—between-the-20s work on a far worse offense—and ranked him behind Kenneth Walker, Alvin Kamara, Chuba Hubbard, James Conner and Travian Henderson in the Underdog Top-150. In their guide Hall sits near 50th overall, a round-four/five value, while current drafts push him ahead of more reliable backs. He warned that inefficiency or injury could push Hall to a No. 2 or No. 3 depth-chart role by fantasy playoff weeks.

Josh Norris said Tyreek Hill is still a ceiling-breaking pick at his new third-round ADP. He noted that whenever Miami’s protection held last season the offense repeatedly hit the 20–30-yard window, and an upgraded line should keep Tua Tagovailoa healthy enough to recreate that deep-shot environment. The combination of a healthy Tua and Mike McDaniel’s vertical play-calling gives Hill a higher upside than Garrett Wilson, while drafters are paying a full round-plus cheaper than in 2023-24. Norris concluded that the league-winning ceiling outweighs the slightly wider downside band at the current discount.

Josh’s Round-3 fade is Garrett Wilson. Wilson was already WR8 in targets per game and fifth in total targets last year yet finished just WR23 in points per game; he was WR35 the season before. Volume clearly isn’t the issue. Josh pushed back on the idea that Justin Fields will unlock Wilson, reminding listeners that DJ Moore’s top-10 year with Fields was propped up by screen scores and blown coverages—plays the Jets offense is unlikely to reproduce. Fields has tried to become a conservative check-down quarterback in camp, further capping explosiveness. Until the offensive environment improves, Josh refuses to pay a late-third price for Wilson and would rather swing for Tyreek Hill’s higher ceiling in the same range.

Josh argued that paying a Round-2 premium for Lamar Jackson (and by extension Josh Allen) is a roster killer in full-PPR redraft. Composite ADP puts the elite quarterbacks at 20th overall, but Josh ranks them 27th. Taking Jackson there forces managers to pass on Chase Brown (RB5 once he became Cincinnati’s starter), Ladd McConkey, Trey McBride—who led all tight ends in targets per game—and Tee Higgins. He illustrated the opportunity cost with a two-for-two: Jackson at 2.11 plus Cooper Kupp in Round 8 versus McConkey in Round 2 plus Brock Purdy in Round 8; he strongly prefers the latter because QB scoring is flatter and Purdy comes six rounds cheaper. Josh advised waiting until Round 3 for an elite QB and using Round 2 to lock in high-ceiling backs and receivers.

Mike Wright dismissed the Lamar Jackson–Zay Flowers combo as a low-upside stack, explaining that correlation is king and touchdowns are the currency. Jackson threw “40-plus scores” last season, yet Flowers converted only four—three of them clustered in just as many games. That left most Lamar spike weeks unpaired with meaningful receiver production (one TD game still netted WR31). Wright argued that, in best-ball or DFS tournaments, managers need touchdown volatility and cited Mark Andrews—or even Rashod Bateman—as superior stacking partners. Until Flowers shows red-zone growth, Wright sees the pairing as a ceiling cap rather than a slate-breaker.

Andy Holloway called Jaylen Warren “underdrafted right now,” pointing to the uncertainty swirling around four or five backfields—most notably Pittsburgh’s. With the Steelers’ depth chart in flux and coaches openly praising Warren’s efficiency in 2024 (5.3 YPC and a 15% target share), Holloway thinks drafters are sleeping on his pathway to a timeshare or outright lead-back role. The lack of clarity is suppressing ADP, creating a cheap shot at a high-leverage pass-catching back who already stole meaningful third-down work from Najee Harris last season.

Andy Holloway advised fantasy managers to select Austin Ekeler ahead of Javante Williams, citing Ekeler’s proven ability to turn limited touches into top-tier fantasy production. Holloway noted that Ekeler’s pass-catching (five straight seasons of 65-plus receptions) and red-zone usage insulate him from volume volatility. He is unconcerned about Brian Robinson Jr., whom he called "just a guy," arguing that any early-down carries Robinson earns will not affect Ekeler’s high-value work. Holloway does not expect Washington’s coaching staff to reduce Ekeler’s role significantly, pointing out that the veteran is still the most efficient weapon in the backfield. With Ekeler available in the 11th round of many drafts, Holloway views him as a strong upside pick in season-long leagues.

Jason Moore labeled Keenan Allen a prime sleeper, arguing that concerns about age are overblown. Moore compared Allen’s current situation to Adam Thielen’s age-34 season (103 receptions, 1,000-plus yards, WR25 on 137 targets) to illustrate how polished route runners can stay productive late in their careers. He added that Allen’s game is built on separation and hands, not speed, so the decline curve should be shallow. Moore expects Justin Herbert to "laser-beam" him the ball close to 100 times and said any projection in the low-70s receptions range is too conservative. Because Allen can line up outside or in the slot, Moore believes Ladd McConkie’s role won’t cap Allen’s volume. With the Chargers projected to remain a high-octane offense and Allen reunited with the only NFL quarterback he has known, Moore views him as a value pick who can easily outkick his ADP in season-long formats.

Mike Wright made the case that 33-year-old Keenan Allen is the steal of double-digit fantasy drafts. Because Allen stayed unsigned through training camp, he’s buried in Sleeper ADP around the 15th round. Wright reminded listeners that two seasons ago Allen finished as WR8, and even last year he out-targeted hyped youngster Ladd McConkey on a per-game basis while matching him with seven touchdowns. Allen played 50% of his snaps outside (not just a slot merchant) and posted four top-10 weekly finishes despite Chicago’s offensive struggles. Now reunited with Justin Herbert and a Charger offense Wright expects to remain top-10 in pass rate, Allen slots in as the clear WR2 who will live on high-percentage first-read looks. In full-PPR formats, drafting Allen over names like Trey Harris, Rashod Bateman, or Christian Kirk delivers bankable weekly volume with proven touchdown upside at a near-free price.

Andy Holloway said Kyle Williams is the name to file away for the Patriots passing game. His argument was simple: nobody on the current depth chart – not even veteran acquisition Stefon Diggs – blocks a young talent from surfacing alongside quarterback Drake May. Holloway urged listeners to watch early-season peripherals: if Williams is already getting snap share and route participation in Week 2, fantasy managers should pounce before the targets inevitably follow. He pointed to New England’s bleak 15-year track record of drafting wide-outs (Braxton Berrios is the franchise’s highest-scoring home-grown WR in that span) as evidence that any hint of competence from Williams will earn him immediate volume. The upside play is a May-to-Williams connection that could grow for years; the actionable takeaway is to leave a final bench spot open or set a tight waiver-wire watchlist for Williams once the season kicks off.

Mike Wright tagged third-round rookie wideout Kyle Williams as a true late-round dart throw. New England averaged just 176 passing yards last year but rebuilt its staff and receiving corps, adding Stefon Diggs and handing the offense to rookie quarterback Drake May. Diggs and Pop Douglas have starting jobs locked up, leaving the WR3 spot wide open. Williams generated Senior Bowl buzz—Daniel Jeremiah said he "helped himself a lot"—and Wright has seen that carry over to camp where Williams is "roasting DBs" and creating easy touchdowns. At 5-11/190 with 4.40 speed he can win on nine routes and sharp slants, and his competition is a collection of journeymen in Mack Hollins and Kayshon Boutte. Currently undrafted on ESPN and lingering in the 11th-12th round elsewhere, Wright believes Williams can emerge as a weekly flex play by mid-season if he seizes that third-receiver job.

Jason Moore said Zach Charbonnet is one of the most mis-priced backs in August drafts. He reminded listeners that Pete Carroll publicly praised Charbonnet’s football IQ and reliability—“he does not flinch”—and noted the coaching staff has already talked about using both backs together. Charbonnet produced RB15 and RB7 finishes in Weeks 2-3 last season with Kenneth Walker active, then posted an overall RB1 week and RB18/RB23 lines when he handled 80 % of snaps in Weeks 14-15. Moore stressed Walker’s durability remains the staff’s biggest concern, making additional high-volume weeks likely. He projects 10-12 touches and flex value every week Walker plays, with genuine league-winning RB1 upside whenever Walker is out. At an ADP outside the top-100, Moore recommends drafting Charbonnet aggressively as a Zero-RB anchor in redraft and as a ceiling play in best-ball tournaments.

Mike Wright embraced ESPN’s report that Zach Charbonnet "is going to have a significant role" in Seattle’s backfield. He highlighted new OC Ryan Grubb’s comments that the two traits he prioritizes are intelligence and full-game availability—qualities he specifically praised in Charbonnet. Wright contrasted that with Kenneth Walker’s recurring soft-tissue issues and said fantasy drafters should plan for a true committee. While Wright has not leap-frogged Charbonnet past Walker in his projections, he prefers taking Charbonnet at his double-digit-round ADP as an upside flex play and is letting the market overpay for Walker’s uncertain bell-cow workload.

Jason Moore laid out a path to an all-49ers "super stack." If Christian McCaffrey slips to the early second round, he will draft him as a discounted RB1. If George Kittle is still on the board in the fourth, Moore is happy to add him, arguing both pieces are values at those prices even though RB and TE cannot score on the same play. Because betting on McCaffrey and Kittle to smash inherently means efficient quarterback play, Moore plans to round out the build with Brock Purdy in the late rounds. He emphasized that he will not force the stack at full price, but when both stars come at ADP discounts the concentrated upside in one of the league’s most efficient offenses is worth chasing.

Andy Holloway repeated that he is out on Breece Hall at his current ADP of roughly 35 overall because drafters are treating Hall as a locked-in bell-cow on an elite offense. In an industry 2-QB, full-PPR draft he finally grabbed Hall at 6.08—almost three full rounds after ADP—only because he had no running backs after starting QB/WR heavy and needed an RB2. Holloway noted every other analyst in the room let Hall slide, underscoring how little faith sharp drafters have in Hall’s first-year workload after ACL recovery or in the Jets’ scoring environment. He said he would rather take Joe Mixon or Aaron Jones at cost and will only consider Hall when the room forces a similar discount.