Guy Boston expects Cincinnati to stop Chicago’s bid for a road sweep, recommending a Reds first-five wager. His angle revolves around standard "bounce-back" logic: the White Sox have only 13–14 wins all season yet have taken the first two games, and Cincinnati’s lineup finally woke up in the late innings on Wednesday. Back at Great American Ball Park, Boston believes the Reds will press the early edge before bullpens enter, making the first-five line the safer play.

Dave Garofolo said the Dimers predictive analytics model made White Sox +1.5 at -102 its lone free best bet for Thursday. After thousands of simulations, the model assigns the Chicago run line a 53.1% probability of cashing, 2.6% higher than the implied odds (50.5%), creating a quantified edge worth exploiting. Garofolo noted the pick targets the 12:40 PM ET getaway-day matchup in Cincinnati and stressed that securing the extra run protects against a close road loss. All other high-edge bets from the model were held for Dimers Pro subscribers, underscoring this play as the top publicly available value on the slate.

For White Sox-Reds, Malstrom is on the YRFI because both projected starters are liabilities. Bryse Wilson and Nick Martinez each allow more than a hit per inning and struggle to strand baserunners, trends reflected in their elevated run and RBI totals allowed. With Cincinnati’s youthful core and Chicago’s few competent bats hitting at the top of the order, he expects at least one of the teams to break through before the second frame.

Kenny G recommended betting the UNDER 9.5 in White Sox-Reds. He laid out several reasons: both offenses are ice-cold—Chicago still ranks dead last in slugging, batting average and second-to-last in runs while Cincinnati has produced just 2, 1, 0, 13, 0 and 4 runs its last six games and sits 21st in average and 22nd in slugging. Starting pitching is serviceable rather than disastrous: Bryse Wilson held Miami to one run over five frames his last time out and Nick Martinez owns a 4.23 ERA with only three earned allowed in a 10-hit scatter versus Houston. Kenny acknowledged the White Sox bullpen is shaky (4.42 ERA) but noted the Reds’ relief unit is solid (3.52 ERA). Park and trend angles back the play as well—Chicago is 14-8 to the UNDER on the road while Cincinnati is 12-8-1 to the UNDER at Great American Ball Park. With the total still sitting at 9.5 despite two sputtering line-ups and middling but not dreadful arms, Kenny believes the UNDER remains the best way to attack this matchup.

He also likes the UNDER in Cincinnati. The Reds have managed just three total runs across their last four games and have gone under in seven of their past nine. Chicago sits 28th in MLB run production and has stayed under in six of eight. Tuesday’s matchup produced only two runs over 18 innings, and the first game of the series also cashed the under. Even in homer-friendly Great American Ball Park, both clubs’ bats are ice-cold. The tout trusts Martinez’s recent form and believes Wilson will at least be competent for a few frames, while neither offense is showing any life, making the under the smarter Thursday bet.

Data Skrive’s forecast calls for a 5-4 Reds victory and makes Cincinnati a ‑220 favorite with a 69% win probability. Nick Martinez’s 1.9 BB/9 and 50% ground-ball rate should play well against a White Sox lineup that is dead last in ISO (.114). Chicago counters with Bryse Wilson (4.88 ERA, 1.46 WHIP) and an exhausted bullpen that logged 10 innings the previous two days. Even so, the Reds’ offense is middling, prompting the model to prefer Under 9 runs at a 56% clip. It expects Martinez to work into the sixth and hand a lead to a bullpen that owns a 3.28 ERA over its last 40 innings.

Kenny G labeled Cincinnati at –220 his tentative "lock of the day," arguing the number is justified even at the juicy price. The Reds are desperate to avoid a sweep, get to stay home, and draw a White Sox club that is just 5-17 on the road. While Bryse Wilson has flashed competence, Chicago’s bullpen (4.42 ERA) remains combustible. Nick Martinez has given Cincinnati length—six innings or more in four of five starts—and the Reds’ pen owns a workable 3.52 ERA. Kenny added that Cincinnati still ranks 9th in runs thanks to a 24-run explosion against Baltimore, whereas the White Sox are last in virtually every offensive category. With team form (Chicago has dropped 17 road games, Cincinnati has lost five of six but is 9-12 at home), bullpen edge, and the motivational spot all favoring the Reds, Kenny believes laying the chalk is preferable to trusting an anemic White Sox offense to spring the upset.

The analyst recommended backing Cincinnati to win and cover the run-line. Despite dropping the first two games of the series, the Reds send Martinez—who has yielded two earned runs or fewer in three of his last four outings and owns the superior ERA and K/BB ratio—against Chicago swing-man Wilson. Wilson has been forced out of the bullpen into the rotation and coughed up four runs in four innings his last time out. The White Sox are just 5-17 on the road, and while they have won three of their last five, Cash Out Sports Picks considers that a blip for a club that has been historically bad over the past year. Cincinnati is 9-12 at home but highly motivated to avoid a sweep, and the matchup on the mound tilts hard in their favor.

Eric Lindquist leaned toward Gavin Lux 2-plus hits at plus money in Great American Ball Park against Chicago. With TJ Friedl sidelined, Lux has been leading off, which Lindquist stressed is crucial because the extra plate appearance boosts the probability of multiple knocks. Bryce Wilson enters with a .317 expected batting average allowed, giving Reds hitters a favorable contact profile. Lux’s own expected average is .254 but he’s actually batting closer to .280, sporting an 8.4-degree launch angle and strong walk rate that keeps him at the top of the order. In a hitter-friendly park, Lindquist called the plus-money 2-hit market “very, very enticing.”

JD Bets recommended grabbing the White Sox +1.5 runs at –106. Since the Pope publicly revealed he is a White Sox fan, Chicago have gone 4-1 and enter Thursday on a three-game win streak after beating the Reds 4-2. Cincinnati, meanwhile, are mired in a 1-9 slide over their last ten and own MLB’s worst strikeout rate (11.6 per game). Although he considered K props for Bryce Wilson and Nick Martinez, JD decided both pitchers are too inconsistent. He prefers taking the run line with the only team in this matchup showing any positive momentum, calling the Reds’ current form ‘struggling something fierce.’

Savio grabbed Under 9 at even money, citing a perfect storm of limp offenses and serviceable arms. The White Sox carry the league’s worst OPS (.613) with Andrew Vaughn, Michael Taylor, and Luis Robert Jr all below the Mendoza Line, and have scored three runs or fewer in nine of their last eleven. Reds starter Nick Martinez has strung together three straight quality starts, lowering his ERA to 4.23, and Savio believes his slightly inflated 1.30 WHIP is less worrisome against this punch-less lineup. On the Chicago side, Bryse Wilson just held Miami to one run over five frames and now draws a Cincinnati offense that is slashing just .198/.641 over the past week. Savio projects both pitchers to work into the sixth and trusts neither set of hitters to break the scoreboard, making nine runs a number he’s happy to fade.

Peterson laid the -1.5 with Cincinnati at -110 (he priced it -127) because Nick Martinez’s surface 4.23 ERA undersells his form: a 3.35 FIP, 2.2 BB/9 and just 0.8 HR/9 indicate he has pitched like a No. 2 starter. On the flip side, Bryse Wilson’s 4.88 ERA actually flatters him—his 5.81 FIP, 4.2 BB/9 and 1.6 HR/9 scream blow-up risk. Chicago’s bullpen isn’t likely to bail him out either, ranking 21st with a 4.43 ERA. With Cincinnati’s lineup in a better offensive environment and a decisive edge after the fifth inning, Peterson expects the Reds to win by multiple runs more often than the market implies.

After getting burned yesterday, Guy Boston is leaning toward the Reds team-total over (look for 4.5 or lower) against Davis Martin. Martin’s four-seam/change/cutter arsenal has produced a 6.48 xERA in limited action, and the Reds remain a top-10 group versus cutters. A warm 75-degree afternoon in Cincinnati offsets wind blowing in, and Boston believes Nick Lodolo’s own volatility turns this into a back-and-forth affair where the Reds must hang a crooked number to win. He will wait for books to open but expects to fire if the TT posts anywhere south of five runs.

Dylan Rockford went the other way, grabbing Under 9 (would still play 8.5) and projecting only 8.5 runs. Chicago is batting a putrid .217 versus lefties and has topped four runs just once in the past week; the under has cashed in four of the club’s last five. Cincinnati has quietly become an under squad—7-3 to the under in its last 10—thanks to mediocre contact quality. Rockford views Lodolo’s ugly home ERA as a one-start blip and expects a 5-1 or 5-2 type result, especially with both teams’ middle-of-the-order bats scuffling.

Malcolm Bamford fired on Over 7.5, noting that both starters invite crooked numbers. Davis Martin has dropped five straight decisions and owns a 5-2 Yerfi record, while Nick Lodolo’s 4-4 Yerfi split and skewed game log (inflated by a rare gem in Coors) suggest early traffic again. The White Sox are 6-4-1 to the over against left-handed pitching, and Cincinnati games are 17-13 to the over overall. Bamford added that a combined 9-6 first-inning-run trend makes a small sprinkle on the Yerfi attractive. He expects shaky command from Martin, a few loud swings off Lodolo, and bullpens that won’t bail either club out.

After cashing Tuesday’s under, Kenny G went right back to the well with Under 9 at Great American Ball Park. He highlighted that Chicago ranks last in batting average and 20th in runs, while Cincinnati’s offense is wildly boom-or-bust (1-0-13-0-4 runs their last five). Davis Martin owns a serviceable 4.01 ERA but the Sox are 0-5 in his starts because the bats never bail him out. On the other side, Nick Lodolo’s 3.23 ERA has been propped up by dominant outings versus weak lineups, and Kenny expects another soft matchup against the punch-less Sox. Trend wise, Chicago is 12-8 to the under on the road; Cincinnati 10-8-1 to the under at home. Even with Cinci’s pen bumping up to a 3.46 ERA after Tuesday’s 10th-inning mess, Kenny projected both clubs to scrape together six or seven runs at most.

Eric Lindquist laid out a case for Cincinnati –0.5 on the first-five run line at –130 (DraftKings). He pointed to White Sox spot-starter Davis Martin’s ugly Statcast profile – a 3.90 xwOBA and .326 xBA – and said Chicago’s lineup "can’t hit anything off-speed or any speed." On the other side, Lindquist loves how Nick Lodolo’s sweeping curve is developing, even comparing the arm slot and whiffs to a young Chris Sale. With left-handed bats such as Gavin Lux, Will Benson and Elly De La Cruz plus a newly healthy Tyler Stephenson, he expects the Reds to jump Martin early while Lodolo silences a weak White Sox order, giving Cincinnati a lead through five.

Just A Bet Outside grabbed Nick Lodolo to RECORD THE WIN at +115, turning a prohibitive –225 Reds moneyline into plus money. He expects Lodolo to cover 6–7 innings; the left-hander has allowed three earned runs or fewer in six of eight starts while limiting hard contact and owns a 27% K-rate away from his one Cincinnati clunker versus Washington. Chicago’s recent "improvement" vs lefties is almost entirely two blow-up games (Springs, Valdez); outside those, they’ve scored ONE run total off Cole Ragans, Brady Singer, and Andrew Abbott. Davis Martin presents a massive mismatch on the other side: bottom-13th percentile in xERA, xBA, whiff rate, K-rate, exit velocity and hard-hit rate. He simply does not miss bats, and the White Sox bullpen remains a gas can. Cincinnati’s pen has actually been serviceable, so Lodolo only needs a modest lead to hold. After the Reds’ offense produced one run in ten innings Tuesday, the tout framed this as an angry bounce-back spot that pays bettors if Cincinnati leads after five and never relinquishes.

Francis laid the –1.5 with Cincinnati. The Reds have covered the run line in four of the last five meetings with the White Sox, and he blasted Chicago as “horrible.” Facing a shaky starter (Cannon) plus a bullpen he expects to implode in hitter-friendly Great American Ball Park, Francis anticipates enough Reds offense for a multi-run victory.

Guy Boston recommended Andrew Abbott under 2.5 earned runs at ‑145 on DraftKings. Abbott has cashed this in 4 of 5 starts (80%) and is averaging just 1.6 ER over his last five outings in Cincinnati. The White Sox rank 23rd in MLB with a .217 average versus lefties on the season and have slipped to 25th (.211) over the last 30 games. Abbott limited Chicago to one run in their only 2024 meeting and owns a 1-0 home record against them. Boston noted that even two earned runs still wins the bet and doubts the Sox can muster enough offense to push Abbott over the number.

Bryan Power recommended over 9 runs in White Sox-Reds at Great American Ballpark. He noted Cincinnati’s feast-or-famine profile— shut out, then 13 runs, then shut out again last series— and believes the ‘feast’ side shows up back in their hitter-friendly park. Jonathan Cannon starts for Chicago with a 4.77 FIP and prior blow-ups of 6 ER vs Cleveland and 4 ER vs Boston; Power dismissed his two recent quality starts because they came against weak-hitting Houston and Kansas City. Reds lefty Andrew Abbott has over-performed a shaky skill set: two outings ago he issued nine walks to just seven strikeouts, and Power expects regression despite Abbott’s five scoreless frames against Atlanta last week. He also slammed Cincinnati’s unreliable bullpen, arguing multiple pathways exist for both lineups to reach double-digit combined runs.

Kenny G said the best way to attack White Sox–Reds is the under 9. He pointed to Jonathan Cannon’s mini-breakout — two straight quality starts allowing just two earned runs apiece — plus Andrew Abbott’s 2.25 ERA and eight-strikeout, zero-run effort at St. Louis. Cincinnati’s bullpen sits comfortably inside the top-10, while Chicago’s lineup ranks 28th in both runs scored and OBP and has produced three runs or fewer in seven of its last ten. The Reds are equally volatile, posting 0, 13, 0, 4, 4 their last five, and Great American Ballpark has surprisingly cashed unders (10-8-1) for Cincinnati home games. Kenny expects six or seven combined before the pens take over and trusts the relief units to keep it there.

Malcolm Bamford recommended attacking the first-five under rather than a side in Tuesday’s White Sox–Reds matchup. His logic is that both starters are quietly in form while neither lineup can be trusted. Andrew Abbott has spun nine consecutive scoreless innings and carries a 2.25 ERA over his last five outings, showing the same upper-zone life that powered his early-2023 breakout. On the other side, rookie Jonathan Cannon has ceded only two earned in back-to-back starts and has kept hard-hit rate under 34 percent in three of his last four. Bamford noted that Cincinnati ranks bottom-5 in wRC+ versus right-handed pitching and that the White Sox are batting .219 against lefties, so run support should be scarce. Given Abbott’s strikeout upside, Cannon’s steady command and both offenses’ cold bats, Bamford expects the game to stay sleepy through the opening five frames and prefers F5 under to laying –200 with the Reds or chasing the plus-money dog.

Lonte Smith is willing to eat the –200 with Cincinnati because Andrew Abbott has rediscovered his 2023 form, spinning nine straight scoreless frames and posting a 2.25 ERA over his last five. Abbott’s only real drawback is limited length, but the Reds’ bullpen owns a top-10 K-rate and should protect a lead against a White Sox lineup batting under .220 versus left-handers. Smith said he would have considered Chicago if any other Reds arm were starting, but with Abbott on the hill and the South Siders still dead last in wRC+, he sees little path for an upset.

He also went under the total despite Great American Ballpark’s hitter reputation. The Reds have a .658 OPS at home (25th) and average fewer than one homer per game there. They are missing key bats Noelvi Marte and Jake Fraley. Chicago has gone under in five of seven and in 12 of 20 road games. Cincinnati is 8-10-1 to the under at home and 6-11-1 when favored. With Abbott dealing and Chicago’s bats dormant, the tout projects limited scoring.

He laid the juice with the Cincinnati Reds money line. Andrew Abbott has not allowed a run over his last nine innings and has yielded one run or fewer in four of five starts. At Great American Ball Park he owns a 1.00 ERA and .161 BAA. Chicago brings MLB’s coldest lineup (last in AVG and OPS, just 29 HRs) and trots out Chris Flexen, who carries a 5.65 road ERA and .267 BAA. The Sox have managed back-to-back wins only twice all season, so the tout expects Cincinnati to snap its slump in this get-right spot.

Just A Bet Outside said Andrew Abbott is a strong strikeout target tonight against the White Sox. Chicago owns the ninth-highest K-rate versus left-handed pitching over the last three weeks (27.5%), while Abbott has already piled up 31 strikeouts in 24 innings. The host highlighted Abbott’s two ceiling starts of 8 and 11 Ks, his healthy 32% strikeout rate against lefties (31.5% vs righties), and elite quality of contact numbers (98th percentile expected ERA, 99th percentile hard-hit avoidance). The only caution flagged was a smaller 21.6% K-rate at home compared to 37.7% on the road, but with just five big-league starts the sample is tiny. He framed it as an attractive over on Abbott’s K prop and a playable DFS pitcher in GPP builds.