Rockford said the only viable angle in Mets-Red Sox is a Mets team-total under (3.0–4.5, depending on what books hang). New York has failed to score more than four runs in over a week, and both Francisco Lindor and Juan Soto remain ice-cold. Garrett Crochet, meanwhile, has not allowed more than two earned in any of his last four Fenway starts and benefits from stiff winds projected to blow in again on Wednesday. Rockford’s own model came out to 8.1 on the full-game total, so rather than sweat both clubs he is isolating the toothless Mets offense and betting it stays quiet against a surging left-hander.

Lindquist bet Tylor Megill’s strike-out over 5.5 (opened –125, now –130) in his matchup with the Red Sox. Megill’s four-seam sets up his wipe-out secondaries—41.3% whiff slider to righties plus a curveball/change combo that generates 36.8% and 26.7% whiffs to lefties. Lindquist highlighted Megill’s 29% overall K-rate and called the curveball “ridonkulous,” predicting plenty of swing-and-miss versus Boston’s left-handed core (Devers, Duran, Abreu). He hinted at alt-lines, noting he may “extend the boundaries beyond just five and a half.”

Chris Ruffolo said Pete Alonso is worth a home-run ticket at +340 because the Mets slugger has dominated Walker Buehler historically. In 14 career at-bats against Buehler, Alonso is 5-for-14 with FOUR of those hits leaving the yard. Ruffolo noted that Buehler is expected to get the ball for Boston on Tuesday and has been solid overall, which keeps the price generous, but Alonso’s extreme HR success in the matchup makes the risk worthwhile. Ruffolo reminded listeners these props are long shots but called Alonso his favorite matchup-based play on the slate.

JD Bets flagged Pete Alonso as a prime Dinger Tuesday target if Walker Buehler indeed takes the hill for Boston. In the small but telling sample, Alonso owns 4 homers and 8 RBI in just 14 career at-bats against Buehler, translating to a .286 average with a ridiculous .857 slugging percentage. JD called it a personal "vendetta" matchup and noted that right-handed Mets hitters in general have fared well against Buehler’s fastball/slider combo when he has been less than fully stretched out. Although current boards were temporarily missing standard HR lines, JD said he will add Alonso the moment markets reopen, preferring the straight home-run prop but willing to consider a Runs+RBI combo if pricing dictates.

Brad Francis played Holmes under 5.5 strikeouts at Fenway Park. The right-hander has stayed below six punch-outs in four of his last five starts, and Francis doubts he suddenly racks up Ks in a hitter-friendly park against what he called a “decent Boston team.” He is comfortable laying the –145 juice on the prop.

Guy Boston leaned to the game OVER (and a small sprinkle on the Red Sox) in Walker Buehler’s first start off the 15-day IL. He argued that New York’s offense—held to 10 total runs in its last six games—is due for positive regression and profiles well against Buehler’s four-seam/cutter-heavy mix. On the other side, Clay Holmes owns sparkling career numbers versus Boston (0.152 AVG, .187 wOBA) but has alternated good and bad starts; after getting rocked by Pittsburgh last time out, Boston expects another shaky road effort. He added that Fenway temps will be chilly with a light breeze blowing in, yet not enough to suppress hard contact. With both bullpens carrying mid-week workloads, Boston projected each club to plate at least four runs, making the over his preferred play.

Kenny g said the best way to attack Mets–Red Sox is the full-game under 9. He argued that both offenses are stuck in neutral – New York has plated just 1, 2, 3, 2 and 0 runs its last five, while Boston’s recent scores of 3, 4, 7, 2, 5, 9, 2 show similar volatility. Clay Holmes owns a 3.14 ERA and the Mets back him with a top-five bullpen (3.01 ERA), yet Fenway Park overreacted to his shaky outing against Pittsburgh. On the other side Walker Buehler returns from a shoulder issue; Kenny noted the stuff still looked fine pre-injury and expects the Red Sox to monitor his pitch count, further tightening run expectancy. Boston’s relief corps has quietly improved to a 3.63 ERA. Historical splits support the play – the Mets are 14-10-1 to the under on the road and the Sox 11-10-2 to the under at home. With two rested bullpens and ice-cold sticks, Kenny believes nine runs is a couple too many.

For the same matchup, the tout played the OVER, pointing to both clubs’ top-ten offenses and situational hitting prowess. The Mets rank 7th in team OPS (.744) while Boston sits 6th (.748). With runners on base, Boston owns a .756 OPS (8th) and New York a .709 mark (16th), suggesting ample traffic and conversion rates. The patchwork pitching setup—Buehler’s pitch cap and Boston’s middle-of-the-pack bullpen versus a Mets bullpen that may be stretched if Holmes cannot go deep—adds volatility. Given Fenway Park’s hitter-friendly dimensions and two lineups that consistently square up mistakes, the tout expects an over result on the projected total.

Lonte Smith preferred the Over 9 in Mets–Red Sox rather than picking a side. Boston’s pitching staff has been torched for 8.3 runs per game over its last six contests, allowing double-digit tallies in three of them. He expects that vulnerability to persist because Clay Holmes’ contact rate has ticked up in recent outings and Walker Buehler’s long lay-off makes his form a wild card. Smith pointed out that Rafael Devers is locked in again, while New York’s lineup should take advantage of a Red Sox bullpen that has imploded multiple times this month. Even if Holmes turns in a quality start, he sees both offenses producing enough traffic to push the game into double-figure runs.

Malcom Bamford said the Mets are a bet at –125 because Clay Holmes has earned full trust: New York is 7-2 straight-up in his starts and the right-hander owns a 3.14 ERA (2.49 FIP). Boston, meanwhile, has dropped five of its last six and has surrendered 8.3 runs per game in that stretch, coughing up double-digit runs three times. Although Rafael Devers has finally heated up, Bamford doubts Walker Buehler’s effectiveness in his first start back from the IL and noted the Red Sox are just 2-under .500 despite playing mostly at Fenway. With the Mets only slight road favorites rather than their usual ‘prohibitive’ price, he felt the number was cheap enough to lay.

Peterson projected only 8.4 total runs at Fenway and therefore played Under 9. He cited Mets starter Clay Holmes’ 3.14 ERA with 0.6 HR/9 and a fifth-ranked New York bullpen sporting a 3.05 ERA. Although Boston’s Walker Buehler carries a 4.26 season ERA, he has surrendered three runs or fewer in four straight outings, suggesting upward momentum. The Red Sox relief corps is solid as well, 12th in MLB with a 3.72 ERA. With two starters who suppress the long ball and above-average pens on both sides, Peterson expects a tight, lower-scoring affair that stays beneath the market total.

Just A Bet Outside backed the Red Sox at +120, explaining that the Mets are in a classic Sunday-night-baseball let-down spot. New York flew to Boston after an emotional Subway Series, while the Red Sox enjoyed a home day game and come in fully rested. Kodai Senga is the superior starter on paper, yet the tout expects regression: his ERA sits around 1.00 but his xERA is 3.50, propped up by an unsustainable 87.2% strand rate. Senga’s command issues (below-average chase rate, 10% BB%) and pronounced vulnerability to left-handed hitters (.253 AVG, .356 OBP allowed) line up poorly against Boston’s left-handed core of Jarren Duran, Rafael Devers, and Wilyer Abreu. Rookie Hunter Dobbins sports elite control (3.4% walk rate) and just needs to keep the Sox within striking distance until the bullpens take over. Boston’s pen used only long man Sean Newcomb Sunday, whereas the Mets’ high-leverage trio—Reed Garrett, Jorge Lopez, and Edwin Diaz—worked heavily over the weekend. Given the rest edge, favorable matchup for Boston’s bats, and plus money at home, the tout labeled the Sox a half-unit wager.

Cash Out Sports Picks sided with the Mets, riding Kodai Senga’s sizzling 1.22 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, and 42-19 K/BB across 44.1 innings. No opponent has scored more than two earned runs on him all season. New York has won six of nine and owns a 15-3 run against AL East clubs. Boston has dropped four of five and trots out rookie Hunter Dobbins (3.90 ERA) who tends to give up hard contact. Even with the Mets traveling after a Sunday-night game, the tout trusts Senga’s nasty splitter and New York’s hotter lineup to take the series opener at Fenway.

Kenny G advised laying the –140 with the Mets because Kodai Senga has been flat-out filthy: a 1.02 ERA on the season and zero outings above two earned runs in his last five, despite facing hot Arizona and St. Louis lineups. Boston counters with rookie Hunter Dobbins, who just surrendered nine hits and five earned to Detroit and sports a 3.90 ERA with volatile command. Kenny trusts New York’s 2.93-ERA bullpen far more than Boston’s still-shaky 3.72 relief corps. The Mets’ offense has cooled lately but remains sixth in MLB runs on the season, while the Red Sox have dropped five of six and are struggling to string hits. Given Senga’s form, bullpen edge and the short Yankee-to-Fenway travel spot, Kenny called –140 “significant value” and expects New York to notch a road victory.