Zola highlighted Taylor Ward as a plug-and-play streamer against Pirates rookie Carmen Mlodzinski, who enters with a 7.41 ERA and bloated 2.00 WHIP. Angel Stadium adds a modest park boost, and Ward has posted a .366 wOBA versus right-handers since 2023. With Pittsburgh’s bullpen ranking bottom-10 in xFIP, Ward is positioned for multiple run-producing plate appearances in both daily lineup leagues and mid-tier DFS builds.

Josh Inglis is attacking Tyler Anderson Under 16.5 outs recorded at +120, citing obvious regression flags. Anderson has yielded only five hits across his last three outings thanks to a .157 BABIP that Inglis says is unsustainable. Statcast expected numbers paint a much uglier picture, and even during this lucky stretch he has logged 18 outs just once in four starts. The lefty just threw a season-high 96 pitches, something he has eclipsed only three times in his past 14 starts dating back to August, and Inglis doubts Phil Nevin pushes him that hard again. Facing a patient Pirates lineup, he projects Anderson to exit before completing 5 2⁄3 innings, making the plus-money Under attractive.

Vaughn Dalzell said Mike Trout is a strong bet to go Over 0.5 total bases on Thursday night and even sprinkled in a homer play at +360. Dalzell argued that Trout’s current 0-for-8 in the series and 1-for-23 skid is masking an ideal matchup. Carmen Mlodzinski has been shelled for 26 hits and 14 earned runs in just 17.0 innings across four starts (7.41 ERA, 1.73 WHIP), issuing 8 walks to 14 Ks. All eight of Trout’s homers and 12 of his 14 total hits this season have come off right-handed pitching, exactly what he’ll see from Mlodzinski. Dalzell expects at least one solid batted ball to fall, projecting Trout to snap the slump and reach safely tonight against a vulnerable Pirates starter.

Drew Martin recommended betting the Angels moneyline at the opener of ‑143 (would play to ‑155) against Pittsburgh. Veteran lefty Tyler Anderson sports a 2.00 ERA and has yielded only five hits over his last three starts. On the other side, Pirates right-hander Carmen Mlodzinski has been tagged for nine earned runs and 14 hits in his two most recent outings. Martin noted the Pirates’ lineup is among MLB’s worst overall and particularly inept versus left-handed pitching. With Los Angeles hovering near .500, he views the early price as undervaluing the Halos and expects the line to climb before first pitch.

It's The Final Round flagged Bryan Reynolds as a must-consider for both hit parlays and home-run tickets against lefty Tyler Anderson. Reynolds has owned Anderson historically (4-for-6 with a homer, .667 average) and is red-hot at the plate, logging three-hit performances in three of his last four games. With those dual indicators—elite BvP and scorching current form—the host is confident Reynolds can clear 1.5 total bases and is worth a small HR sprinkle at anything north of +400.

It's The Final Round targeted Nolan Schanuel for hits and total-bases props against Carmen Mlodzinski. Schanuel owns a .421 average (8-for-19 with a homer) versus four-seam fastballs, the pitch Mlodzinski throws 39 % of the time and allows a .368 average on. Schanuel is also crushing sliders (.500, 4-for-8) while the Pirates right-hander is getting torched for .583 on that offering (7-for-12). The only pitch that gives Schanuel trouble is the change-up (.154), but Mlodzinski’s change is still yielding .375. With a hit in 17 of his last 20 games, the host likes Schanuel to clear 1+ hit easily and thinks an over 1.5 total-bases ladder is in play.

Kenny G recommended laying the –140 with the Angels in Game 3, citing a massive pitching mismatch. Tyler Anderson has thrown 11.2 consecutive scoreless innings and sports a 2.08 ERA despite facing potent lineups (Giants, Astros, Cardinals). On the flip side, rookie Carmen Mlodzinski drags a 7.41 ERA and just surrendered five earned on nine hits to Cleveland. Pittsburgh’s offense ranks 24th in runs and 26th in average, and Kenny doubts they can punish L.A.’s shaky bullpen (5.45 ERA). The Pirates are just 3-8 on the road and trend under (12-11-1), while the Angels’ bats sit top-10 in slugging even with Mike Trout hitting for low average. Kenny believes Anderson will hand over a lead large enough for even the suspect relief corps to protect, making Los Angeles a “regular-play” moneyline bet.

Just A Bet Outside played the Angels first-five-innings money line at –130 (½-unit) and would pivot to the –½ run line if the price drifts past –150. He compared the starters and found a clear edge: rookie Carmen Mlodzinski owns a 7.41 ERA through four 2024 starts with 8 walks and 26 hits in only 17 IP, allowing 4+ earned in three of those outings. By contrast, veteran left-hander Tyler Anderson rides a 12.2-inning scoreless streak, has allowed just 11 hits in 21.2 IP, sports a 1.06 WHIP, a 2.88 xERA, and an uptick to an above-average K-rate despite a slightly elevated walk rate. Anderson’s “poor-man’s Blake Snell” profile limits contact and baserunners, while the Pirates face-plant against southpaws. Stephen expects the Angels lineup to tag Mlodzinski early and Anderson to keep Pittsburgh quiet, making LAA the play through five.

Kyle Purviance said he is taking a home-run flyer on Jo Adell tomorrow against Pittsburgh. Purviance tied the play to the same Carmen Mlodzinski fade he broke down earlier: the Pirates right-hander carries a 2.00 WHIP and leans on a four-seam/sinker mix that lives belt-high, generating only a 12 % swinging-strike rate. Right-handed power hitters have posted a .289 ISO against that profile, and Adell brings a 94th-percentile barrel rate plus a career-best 45 % fly-ball rate since his call-up. Purviance calculated a 7.3 % home-run probability—roughly +1270 fair odds—so he will fire on any book listing 14-to-1 or longer.

Kyle Purviance singled out rookie Kyren Paris as his favorite prop in the Pirates match-up, recommending over 1.5 total bases at expected plus money. Purviance’s model shows Paris posting a .777 xBA in a small but telling sample against Carmen Mlodzinski’s four-seam/sinker mix. With Mlodzinski running that 2.00 WHIP, Purviance anticipates multiple hitter-friendly counts and at least four plate appearances for Paris, who owns 94th-percentile hard-hit numbers since being recalled. He likes pairing the prop with the full-game over but views Paris 2+ bases as a standalone play if the total never gets to 8.5.

Brian Howard is targeting the total rather than a side in Pirates-Angels. The market opened at 9 even money, but he expects it to slip to 8.5 and will pounce on the over the moment it does. His case centers on Pittsburgh starter Carmen Mlodzinski, who carries a 2.00 WHIP—"two baserunners every inning"—and has yet to demonstrate a put-away pitch. Howard believes the Angels’ right-handed power (Mike Trout is resting but Jo Adell and Kyren Paris are projected in the top six) will punish that traffic, while Los Angeles starter Tyler Anderson’s fly-ball profile keeps the door open for Pittsburgh to chip in. He sees double-digit combined runs as the median outcome once the total drops to 8.5.

Savio recommended Angels -140 on the moneyline largely because Tyler Anderson (2-0, 2.08 ERA, 1.06 WHIP) has strung together 11⅔ straight scoreless innings against the Giants and Astros. He highlighted Pittsburgh’s offense ranking bottom-six in MLB for average, runs and OPS, arguing that the matchup gives Anderson an excellent chance to extend his zero-run streak. Even with Kyren Paris cooling, Savio expects the return of shortstop Zach Neto—who is beginning to heat up—to give Los Angeles just enough support to cash the ticket.