Guy Boston said it’s "Houston all day long" against Milwaukee and likes stacking the side with Over 7.5 runs. His case: Framber Valdez, while uneven in 2025, still dominates right-handed bats and owns strong road splits, a perfect fit versus Milwaukee’s righty-leaning lineup that ranks bottom-10 versus sinkers—Valdez’s primary pitch. On the other hill, Quinn Priester throws sinkers over 40% and sliders the rest; Houston sits top-10 against sinkers, so Boston projects 4-5 Astros runs if Priester’s command wavers. He also downgraded the Brewers’ bullpen after recent shakiness, contrasting it with Houston’s rested, above-average relief corps. Boston’s actionable bets: Astros money line (despite juice) and game Over 7.5, banking on Milwaukee scratching out three runs and Houston taking care of the rest.

Razzle said he is “never going to play Quinn Priester at this point.” After opening the season with two decent outings, Priester has posted back-to-back clunkers while still being allowed to throw 90+ pitches. Even without Yordan Alvarez, the Astros still feature enough right-handed power to punish Priester’s 45% hard-hit rate. With no strikeout upside and an inflated walk rate, Razzle insists Priester is an easy fade on any slate size.

Razzle said to keep Framber Valdez in DFS pools even though the left-hander has not been in peak form. He pointed out that two of Valdez’s three best outings have come on the road – exactly where he is tonight in Milwaukee – and that some of the elevated ERA looks unlucky when you dig into the underlying metrics. The matchup sets up well: the Brewers have cooled off over the last 7-10 days and historically struggle versus southpaws. Vegas agrees, hanging the slate’s second-lowest total (7.5) with Houston a –135 favorite. Valdez owns the second-best win odds (+130) and a 5.5 strikeout prop (juice to the under), making him one of the few arms on the early slate with both ceiling and floor. Razzle is willing to live with the slightly suppressed K prop because the context and opponent tilt toward efficiency and six-plus innings.

Adam Rosenberg played Framber Valdez under 17.5 pitching outs at +116. Rosenberg said Valdez is simply overrated right now: the left-hander’s strikeout rate has dipped below 20%, so he relies on balls in play—and Milwaukee owns a top-10 BABIP versus southpaws over the last month, meaning more traffic and earlier hooks. Rosenberg also likes the game-flow setup. Houston’s bullpen is fully rested with an off-day coming Thursday, so Dusty Baker can turn to high-leverage arms (Hector Neris, Josh Hader) once Valdez approaches the 6th inning. With Valdez averaging just 90.3 pitches in his last four road starts and clearing 18 outs only once in that span, Rosenberg called the plus-money price a gift.

JD Bets targeted Kyle Tucker to record at least one hit on Wednesday, noting several indicators in the slugger’s favor. Tucker is 4-for-9 with two home runs lifetime against the slated opposing starter, a sample JD called 'a smooth 4-4-4-9' that includes a 1.500 OPS. Tucker has also been scorching recently, averaging 1.4 hits per game over his last five contests and clearing this hits line in seven of his past eight. Because the pitching matchup projects as another left-on-right spot for Tucker and the market is still hanging plus-160 on a simple hit prop, JD felt the price was too good to pass up and locked it in as one of his few official plays on an otherwise lean slate.

Lindquist bet Over 7.5 in Astros–Brewers, fading Framber Valdez’s reputation. Valdez’s ground-ball rate has fallen from his trademark 62% to 53%, while his hard-hit rate has spiked to 47% and strikeouts slipped to 21.6%. With the sinker no longer tunneling and the curve losing depth, Lindquist thinks bettors are clinging to past versions of Valdez. He also called Milwaukee’s starter Colin Rea ("son of a priest of man") a pure contact arm who owns a 4.71 xERA and sub-20% K-rate. Even with the roof likely shut, American Family Field inflates pull-side power, and both bullpens project as league-average at best. Lindquist made the fair total 8.4, so anything 8 or lower is a green light.

Cash Out Sports Picks recommended the Astros money line because Framber Valdez still owns the better profile than Quinn Priester. Valdez sports a 37-to-15 K:BB and flashed ace form when he blanked the Mets and Mariners for six-plus innings apiece. Priester’s 17-to-16 K:BB, recent seven-earned-run implosion in relief versus the Cubs, and WHIP issues show he has not settled in. Houston’s offense should capitalize on Priester’s generosity, and Valdez’s big-game experience gives the Astros the crucial edge to steal the rubber match.

While backing Houston, Cash Out Sports Picks also took the full-game over, citing two starters in shaky current form. Priester has yielded 12 runs in his last nine innings and owns an ERA north of 5.00. Valdez’s 4.39 ERA and streak of four straight starts with multiple earned runs show he is not lights-out either. With Priester returning to the rotation after a disastrous relief stint and Valdez providing only relative stability, the tout expects both lineups to hang crooked numbers and push the total past the posted number.

Cash Out Sports Picks recommended the Astros money line because Framber Valdez still owns the better profile than Quinn Priester. Valdez sports a 37-to-15 K:BB and flashed ace form when he blanked the Mets and Mariners for six-plus innings apiece. Priester’s 17-to-16 K:BB, recent seven-earned-run implosion in relief versus the Cubs, and WHIP issues show he has not settled in. Houston’s offense should capitalize on Priester’s generosity, and Valdez’s big-game experience gives the Astros the crucial edge to steal the rubber match.

Welsh recommended the under 4.5 strikeouts on Brewers right-hander Chad Patrick at –130. Patrick has cleared five punch-outs just once all season and comes in with a modest 18 % strikeout rate. Houston, even without Yordan Alvarez, owns a bottom-five team strikeout percentage and has hammered mediocre fastballs like Patrick’s (opponents hitting .312 off the pitch). Welsh expects Craig Counsell to employ a quick hook if traffic piles up, making it unlikely Patrick sees the 20+ batters generally required to reach five Ks.

Cash Out Sports Picks took Milwaukee on the money-line. Rookie Patrick (the transcript’s "Patrick" starter) has yielded just 10 earned runs on 29 hits over 31.1 innings, including a 1.69 ERA and .211 opponent average at American Family Field. Houston’s offense has been wildly inconsistent and its bullpen ERA inflates on the road. The Brewers have righted the ship with back-to-back wins, whereas the Astros have dropped two straight and show little lineup trustworthiness unless the betting price is steep. Given Patrick’s home splits and Milwaukee’s recent momentum, the tout sees value in the Brew Crew.

Josh Gayle advised betting the NRFI at -120 in Astros vs Brewers. He pointed out that Houston averages the fewest first-inning runs in MLB and is now without cleanup slugger Yordan Alvarez, further draining its top-of-the-order power. Milwaukee scores the third-fewest first-inning runs at home. On the mound, Hayden Wesneski has yielded just 1 run in the first inning across 5 starts, while Chad Patrick has surrendered only 1 run and 2 hits in the opening frame over 6 outings. Forecast models show neutral weather with no wind to aid hitters. Both clubs are 0-for-May in first-inning scoring, so Gayle expects six quick outs and recommends backing the NRFI.

Guy Boston said the only reason he needs to fire on Milwaukee in the first five is Houston’s allergy to cutters. Over the past 30 days every regular in the Astros lineup except Jeremy Pena grades negative against the pitch—Jose Altuve (-0.58 runs/100), Yordan Alvarez (-4.7), Kyle Tucker (-5.8), Alex Bregman (-4.7), Chas McCormick (-1.2), right down the order. Hayden Wesneski is throwing his cutter almost 50 % of the time since being stretched out, so Boston expects the pitch to dictate at-bats early. The spot sets up well too: Milwaukee has won 4-0 and 5-1 the last two games while Houston has dropped four of five and travels in. Bullpen quality favors the Astros, which is why Boston prefers Brewers F5 ML and even considers an Astros F5 team-total under instead of a full-game wager. He noted both starters (Wesneski and Chad Patrick) are league-average overall but the pitch-type edge plus home momentum makes the early Milwaukee side worth the juice.

Kenny G shaded toward Milwaukee at –115, suggesting a first-five wager to avoid the Brewers’ shaky 4.75 bullpen ERA. He is willing to fade an Astros lineup that sits 20th in runs and 21st in slugging and has produced just one win in its last five. Houston starter Hayden Wesneski owns a respectable 3.86 ERA but rarely gets run support (Astros scored 0 in his last outing). Brewers rookie Chad Patrick has surrendered two or fewer earned runs in four of five starts, and Milwaukee is 11-6 at home while Houston is 6-10 away. Kenny admitted limited conviction but believes the Brewers’ modest moneyline—or safer first-five—holds the slight edge given Houston’s ongoing offensive funk.

Power laid –110 with the Brewers behind Tobias Myers against Ronel Blanco. Both hurlers could regress, but Milwaukee allows only 3.8 runs per game at home versus 5.2 on the road, while Houston surrenders 4.1 runs away from Minute Maid compared to 3.2 at home. He believes those home/road splits are meaningful and expects the Brew Crew to take the series opener.

Tokyo Brandon advised betting the Astros over 3.5 runs because every matchup edge points to Houston scoring. In his long-time 30-point scouting model the Astros grade eighth in hitting while the Brewers sit 18th. Houston’s bullpen checks in at seventh compared with Milwaukee’s 22nd, so run-scoring chances should continue late. Starter Tobias (Toby) Myers owns a 5.14 ERA and an ugly 1.86 WHIP, and Brandon highlighted that Myers has literally thrown more balls than strikes this season – the kind of trend that sends pitchers back to AAA. Although Ronel Blanco can be volatile, Brandon still rates the two starters equal (16th of 30) and trusts Houston’s bats to punish Milwaukee’s shaky arms. The Astros hit on the road, guaranteeing nine innings of plate appearances, and Brandon calls 3.5 runs “too low” given Houston’s lineup quality and the Brewers’ current bullpen form.

Shubham Soni said Christian Walker is a high-upsider home-run prop at +330 because the surface stats hide how hard the ball is coming off his bat. Walker is slashing an ugly .200/.273/.350 with only four homers through 32 games, yet he owns a 91-mph average exit velocity and 32 % hard-hit rate that scream positive regression. Tonight he gets Tobias Myers and his 5.14 ERA, 1.86 WHIP and shaky command. Soni framed it as a classic buy-low: back Walker’s underlying power profile to convert against a pitcher who is letting everyone put the ball in play with authority.

Houston sits at -105 (51% implied) while Kingpin AI rates the Astros at 54% to win, good for +5% EV. Despite Milwaukee’s strong home record, the model trusts the Astros’ deeper lineup and playoff-tested staff to prevail more than a coin-flip, making the near-even moneyline worth laying.

Data Skrive’s sim calls it Brewers 5-4 and plays Milwaukee ‑115 plus Over 8. The model fades Ronel Blanco’s 10.5% walk rate inside the homer-friendly American Family Field, forecasting extra traffic for a top-10 Brewers lineup in wRC+. Tobias Myers’ 5.14 ERA looks scary, but his 3.71 xERA says positive regression is coming. Milwaukee’s ground-ball heavy staff matches well against Houston’s 28th-ranked slugging percentage on grounders. Add in a taxed Astros bullpen that coughed up seven runs Sunday, and the computer gives Crew backers the green light while expecting both offenses to clear the modest total.

Kenny G said bettors should side with Houston at –105 because Tobias Myers is simply not ready for prime-time. Through two starts and a mop-up relief outing the rookie right-hander has been tagged for four earned in just 3.0 total innings, coughing up a homer to the White Sox and walking three. Kenny pointed out that Milwaukee backs him with a 4.87 bullpen ERA—sixth-worst in baseball—so Craig Counsell will have no safety net once Myers inevitably exits early. Meanwhile Ronel Blanco has been mediocre (5.08 ERA) but hands the ball to a Houston bullpen that ranks fourth with a 2.84 ERA. Offensively the Astros have been inconsistent (19th in runs, 21st in slugging) yet Kenny expects some positive regression and still prefers them to a Brewers lineup that has produced only four total runs in its last four games and sits 24th in slugging. With the market making Milwaukee a slight –115 favorite despite those gaps, Kenny believes the Astros moneyline is the clear value play and is comfortable fading Myers until he shows something.

Lindquist wants a home-run ticket on Yordan Alvarez if he is confirmed in Monday’s lineup. He projects Tobias Myers (expected starter for Milwaukee) to lean heavily on a four-seam/slider combo that Alvarez destroys. The slugger carries a .364 xwOBA and ideal 20° average launch angle into a ballpark that is a clear upgrade for left-handed power compared with Minute Maid. Lindquist called Alvarez “a murderer of righties” and expects books to hang an HR prop in the +350 range; he plans to fire at that number and possibly ladder alternate total-base markets. He reminded listeners to monitor starting-lineup news because books void the wager if Alvarez is scratched.

Shubham Soni said Christian Walker is a worthwhile +330 HR prop because the surface stats hide how well the first baseman is actually striking the ball. Despite a .200/.273/.350 line with only 4 homers through 32 games, Walker owns a 91-mph average exit velocity and a 32% hard-hit rate that signal looming power regression. He draws Brewers rookie Tobias Myers, whose 5.14 ERA and bloated 1.86 WHIP show persistent issues with walks and barrels allowed. Soni framed the matchup as a classic "get-right" spot: an underlying power profile meeting a pitcher struggling to miss bats and manage contact in a hitter-friendly park.

Scott Reichel laid –115 with Milwaukee, explaining that Houston’s offense is a paper tiger without Yordan Alvarez. The Astros are spraying singles but rank near the bottom of MLB in OPS with runners in scoring position and just blew a 4-0 lead to the White Sox. Reichel gave Luis Garcia Blanco only marginal credit for a 2-2 record and 5.08 ERA—numbers that are worse on the road—while noting Brewers spot-starter Joe Meyer should face a lineup that is entirely right-handed absent Alvarez. He and Lonte agreed that Yordan’s absence is worth about 15 cents to the line, making Milwaukee closer to –130 in their numbers. Reichel trusts the Brewers’ above-average home split (247 team AVG, 5.3 runs per game) to take advantage of Houston’s scuffling bullpen.

In the same Astros–Brewers matchup, Peterson bet Over 8 (projected 8.2). Both starters carry ERA–FIP gaps that scream blow-up potential: Myers (3.10 ERA / 4.04 FIP, 1.2 HR/9) and Blanco (3.13 ERA / 4.27 FIP, 3.8 BB/9). Milwaukee’s top-10 offense plus an Astros lineup that still profiles above average against righties create multiple scoring pathways once the bullpens enter. Any late line move to 8.5 would still be playable in Peterson’s model.

Although the over has cashed in six straight Astros games and five of the Brewers’ seven contests in May, Cash Out Sports Picks recommended taking the full-game UNDER. He argued that the recent scoring spike has inflated the posted total and expects a market correction. Blanco’s underlying 1.31 WHIP is far better than his surface 5.08 ERA, hinting at positive regression, while Myers’ limited sample leaves room for improved efficiency if he can locate his fastball early. Both offenses rank middle-of-the-pack in team BABIP (Astros 11th at .292, Brewers 16th at .287) and could cool if either starter gets through the first trip in the order clean. Last year’s series stayed under once and missed by just a run in another, suggesting the clubs are capable of lower-scoring affairs. With both bullpens rested after Thursday’s off day and totals traders likely chasing the over trend, the tout sees value in the contrary under play.

Peterson laid -110 with Milwaukee (true line -119) citing the contact profile of the starters. Tobias Myers’ surface 3.10 ERA is shaky behind a 4.04 FIP, but Ronel Blanco is even shakier: 3.13 ERA paired with 3.8 BB/9 and a 4.27 FIP. The Brewers’ offense ranks 10th in MLB at 4.7+ runs a night and should capitalize on Blanco’s control issues. With home-field leverage and the better lineup, Peterson sees value backing Milwaukee before the market corrects.

Cash Out Sports Picks doubled down on Houston’s money-line appeal against Milwaukee. He noted that Ronel Blanco has limited opponents to four earned runs across his last 11.2 innings and has not allowed more than three in any of his past four starts, with the Astros winning three of those outings. On the other side, rookie Tobias Myers has been yanked early in both starts (2 IP and 4 IP) while carrying a 5.14 ERA and 1.86 WHIP, leaving the Brewers’ bullpen—which owns a 5.08 ERA over the past week—exposed for extended work. Houston’s offense is putting the ball in play at a .292 BABIP clip (11th-best) and has gone over the total in six straight, signaling that the bats remain hot enough to capitalize on Milwaukee’s pitching issues. With the Astros 4-2 in their last six overall and Milwaukee dropping seven of ten, the tout sees Houston as the clear side, even on the road.

Cash Out Sports Picks targeted the Astros money line, emphasizing Houston’s 4-2 surge and pitching staff that ranks second in WHIP (1.10) and sixth in ERA (3.35). Ronel Blanco has given up just four runs across his last 11.2 innings and no more than three in any of his past four starts, with the Astros winning three of those games. Milwaukee has lost seven of ten and owns a 4.45 ERA with a 1.36 WHIP. Rookie Tobias Myers has logged only six total innings in two starts, allowing two runs each time and operating on a short leash. With Houston’s superior pitching form against a slumping Brewers lineup, the tout sees clear value on the visitors.

Dana Lane recommended betting the Milwaukee Brewers at -115 on Monday’s moneyline versus Houston. Lane pointed to pronounced home/road splits for Astros starter Ronel Blanco: opponents are batting .173 off him in Houston but .345 on the road through two away appearances, a trend Lane wants to fade until proven otherwise. Conversely, Milwaukee’s Tobias Myers makes just his second big-league start after dominating at Triple-A Nashville; Lane likes wagering on a relatively unknown arm because Houston’s scouting report is limited. Additional context: the Astros have dropped three of their last four and just lost a series to the White Sox, while cashing seven straight overs, suggesting their pitching is wobbling. Milwaukee at 17-16 has been more competitive, and Lane believes the modest price does not reflect the matchup edge created by Blanco’s road woes and the element of surprise Myers provides.

Mike Maher said he will once again start Tobias Myers on Monday, calling the right-hander a near-weekly fixture on his rosters. Myers draws the Astros, whose lineup has been oddly toothless—bottom-10 in ISO and runs per game since mid-May. Maher emphasized that Myers’ slider has generated a 34% whiff rate, giving him enough strikeout juice to take advantage of Houston’s current slump. Given the opponent’s name value, Maher expects Myers to remain available in many leagues and believes fantasy managers can squeeze a quality start or at least solid ratios from the pickup.