Greg Peterson urged bettors to play the Cubs straight up Sunday night because he wants no part of Aaron Nola in his current form. Nola has opened 0-5 with a 6.43 ERA, is allowing almost two homers per nine innings and historically owns a full run higher ERA on the road (4.24) than at Citizens Bank Park (3.26) over a ten-year sample. Peterson’s model made Chicago –133 thanks to Jameson Taillon’s recent stabilization—three earned runs or fewer in four straight—and a Cubs offense pacing MLB at better than six runs a game. Chicago has scored 26 runs in Taillon’s last four turns, buoyed by Kyle Tucker’s .400+ OBP, Ian Happ’s .365 OBP and rookie Pete Crow-Armstrong flashing both pop (3 HR) and a .280 average. Philadelphia’s lineup remains dangerous, but bullpen depth is thin beyond Jose Alvarado and Matt Strahm, while the Cubs’ pen gets a lift from Carson Kelly’s work behind the plate despite injuries to Ryan Brazier and Eli Morgan. Peterson will play Chicago down to –123 and plans to attack totals based on Wrigley wind: 8.5 or lower he’s on the Over, 9 or higher the Under.

Cash Out Sports Picks backed the full-game OVER 8 runs for Sunday’s series finale at Wrigley Field. He pointed to Aaron Nola’s ugly 6.43 season ERA—saying even a bounce-back still leaves the door open for scoring—while Jameson Taillon’s 7.41 career ERA versus Philadelphia makes him a clear target for the red-hot trio of Bryce Harper, Trea Turner, and Kyle Schwarber, who have collectively slugged .672 off him in prior meetings. The tout highlighted Wrigley’s smaller dimensions and a forecasted warm afternoon breeze that typically boosts home-run probability by roughly 12 percent. Chicago owns a top-5 hard-hit rate at home, the Phillies have plated 17 runs over the first two games of the set, and both bullpens are coming in less than fresh after Saturday’s blowout. All factors combined led the tout to project a 6-5 or 7-4 type shootout that clears the eight-run number comfortably.

Kenny G circled the full-game over 8 in Sunday-night Phillies–Cubs as one of his favorite totals on the board. He thinks the number is simply too low given the matchup: Aaron Nola is 0-5 with a 6.43 ERA and has been tagged for 4+ earned in four straight starts, while Chicago’s Jameson Taillon owns a 4.73 ERA with every bit of the damage coming in one blow-up outing, meaning regression could still push this total higher. Both bullpens are disasters—Philadelphia’s 5.46 relief ERA is third-worst in MLB and Chicago isn’t far behind at 5.05—so Kenny wants the insurance of nine full innings rather than first-five. Offensively the Cubs are a wagon, ranking first in runs, batting average, OBP, and slugging (.461) and posting a 17-9-2 record to the over, including 9-4 at Wrigley. The Phillies have been mediocre overall (14-13 under record) but still sit eighth in average and third in OBP, so Kenny expects consistent traffic against Taillon and the shaky Cubs pen. Trend wise, Chicago’s home overs and both pens’ ERAs converge on the same conclusion: runs, and plenty of them. He’ll post over 8 in the pinned comment and may sprinkle a Cubs moneyline at –105 but says the total is the sharper edge.

Cash Out Sports Picks leaned Philadelphia on the money-line, emphasizing Aaron Nola’s 7-2 lifetime mark versus Chicago and a looming breakout after a rocky April. Jameson Taillon owns an ugly 7.41 career ERA against the Phils, and Bryce Harper plus Trea Turner just ignited for multi-hit games in Saturday’s blowout. The tout believes if Nola establishes early strike-one and lets his curve play, the Cubs’ offense—strong at home but vulnerable to elite SP—will fall behind. With confidence rising in the Philly dugout and a rested bullpen, Cash Out Sports Picks predicted Nola finally gets in the win column and the Phillies leave Wrigley with the series.

In the same Phillies-Cubs matchup, JD Bets is also betting the full-game total over 8. Both clubs are smashing his model’s offensive sliders, with each clearing its team total in four straight and ranking top-5 in YRFI percentage over the last 10 games. Jameson Taillon sports a .444/.400/.330 slash line allowed to current Philadelphia hitters, while Nola has surrendered multiple runs in 7 of 10 starts. With winds expected to be calm—avoiding Wrigley’s occasional under-forcing gusts—JD projects nine to ten combined runs, enough cushion to feel confident playing the over at even money.

JD Bets likes Aaron Nola over 5.5 strikeouts on Sunday Night Baseball. The Cubs strike out 9.5 times per game (25th in MLB) and have fanned at least six times in seven of their last nine contests. Nola has cleared 5.5 Ks in 7 of his last 10 and 4 of his last 5 starts despite allowing 2.5 earned runs on average, showing he can miss bats even when hittable. JD acknowledges Chicago’s hot bats could shorten Nola’s outing, but believes the matchup’s whiff upside and Wrigley’s neutral weather are enough to push the prop home, projecting 6–7 punch-outs in six innings.

Caleb Wilfinger backed the NRFI at -120 (playable to -130) for Sunday Night Baseball between the Phillies and Cubs. He expects a scoreless first inning because Wrigley Field will be pitcher-friendly—mid-50s temperatures and a light 8 mph breeze. Wilfinger noted Cubs right-hander Jameson Taillon has righted the ship after his rough opener, surrendering only 8 earned runs across his last 22.1 innings and owns plenty of familiarity with the Philadelphia lineup. On the other side, Aaron Nola’s surface stats look ugly (6.43 ERA, 20 ER in 28 IP), but Wilfinger pointed to a 4.57 xERA, 3.44 xFIP and 24.6% strikeout rate as evidence of positive regression. With both pitchers poised for early success in cool conditions, Wilfinger sees value in betting no runs in the first inning.

Peterson grabbed Cubs +102 and would lay up to –123 (his projection). Aaron Nola is 0-5 with a 6.43 ERA, sitting on career-worst HR/9 (1.9) and BB/9 (3.5). He now faces a Chicago offense averaging 6.2 runs, tops in MLB by a wide margin. Jameson Taillon’s 4.73 ERA hides consistency—three or fewer runs allowed in four straight. With the hotter lineup and the less volatile arm, Chicago deserved to be the favorite in Peterson’s eyes.

Peterson wants the Cubs at even money or better despite facing Jesus Luzardo’s nasty 1.77 FIP. His model made Chicago –101 and hung a 6.9 total, citing double-digit winds blowing straight in at Wrigley and temperatures that will mute power. That weather edge evens the pitching matchup: Luzardo’s strikeout-heavy approach loses bite when balls die in the air, while Ben Brown can lean on his 10.5 K/9 if he avoids free passes (3.7 BB/9). Offensively, Peterson prefers the Cubs’ “station-to-station” lineup in a small-ball environment—Nico Hoerner flirting with .300, Kyle Tucker and Seiya Suzuki combining for 13 homers plus .400-plus OBP, and Carson Kelly’s six bombs in 41 ABs. Chicago’s shakier bullpen is a concern, but Philadelphia’s is hardly trustworthy with Orion Kerkering’s struggles and Joe Ross’s volatility. The Phillies have only 21 homers through 25 games, and Peterson thinks the wind further blunts Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper’s punch. Bottom line: grab the home dog and play Under 7 if the market hangs it, switching to Over only if the total dips to 6.5.

William Boor said he is firing on the Phillies behind Jesus Luzardo despite Chicago’s torrid start at the plate. Boor pulled up Luzardo’s Baseball Savant page, noting an ERA of 2.08 with an expected ERA of 2.63, a strike-out rate north of 30 percent and elite chase metrics that paint the screen red. He acknowledged Chicago has been hanging crooked numbers "like 40 runs every night" but expects that to cool with Saturday’s wind projected to blow straight in at Wrigley, historically worth roughly a run and a half to the total. Boor thinks the suppressed run environment neutralizes the Cubs’ power and plays perfectly into Luzardo’s swing-and-miss profile, giving Philadelphia a clear edge at the current plus-money prices being dealt in the market.

Kenny G prefers Over 7 runs at Wrigley. His reasoning is bullpen-driven: Philadelphia owns MLB’s second-worst relief ERA (4.55) while Chicago isn’t far behind at 4.96. Even if starters Jesus Luzardo (2.08 ERA) and rookie Ben Brown (4.57 ERA, but coming off back-to-back gems) trade zeroes early, Kenny expects fireworks late. The Cubs are an "offensive powerhouse"—1st in runs, OBP and average, 2nd in slugging—and have gone 16-9-2 to the over, tops in baseball. The Phillies have scuffled at the plate recently but still rank 12th in runs and should benefit from the friendly over environment if the Wrigley wind is neutral or blowing out. Given two leaky pens and a tiny total, Kenny calls the over the smarter play than choosing a side.

Kyle Purviance said he is happy to lay the run-and-a-half with Philadelphia in Saturday’s near-pick’em against Chicago. Purviance dismissed Colin Rea’s last outing—when the journeyman shut the Phils down—as a pure blip, calling Rea “dog-shit, not good” and noting the right-hander’s middling stuff will not survive a second look from Bryce Harper and company. With the full-game moneyline bouncing between –112 and –108, Kyle feels the run-line will open at +140 or better and gives bettors a cleaner way to attack a matchup in which he expects the Phillies’ offense to correct last week’s embarrassment. He framed the wager as a straight fade of Rea rather than a play on the Cubs, adding that Philadelphia’s rested high-leverage bullpen arms make the late innings far less volatile than the first meeting.

The tout recommended taking the full-game over, explaining that both clubs rank near the bottom in staff strikeouts and home-runs allowed, creating a perfect storm for offense. Chicago’s lineup is already crushing, whereas Philadelphia’s inconsistent but powerful bats get a soft matchup against Brown and a bullpen with similar issues. Cash Out Sports Picks expects both sides to trade crooked numbers and push the combined score past the posted total.

Francis urged bettors to get on the Cubs train rather than "stand on the tracks." Chicago ranks near the top of MLB in batting average, OPS, total runs, and home runs, while Philadelphia enters on a five-game losing streak. The combination of a surging lineup and a vulnerable opponent convinced Francis to grab the Cubs money line as one of his favorite Saturday wagers.

Cash Out Sports Picks said the Cubs are the play on the moneyline because Chicago owns the league’s best team batting average and leads MLB in runs per game while Philadelphia has dropped five in a row and ranks near the bottom in both home runs and hits allowed. Although newcomer Jesus Luzardo has been solid for the Phillies, the tout noted that Chicago’s lineup is clubbing homers throughout the order and a shaky Phillies bullpen has compounded the club’s problems with runners left on base. Even if Ben Brown struggles, the Cubs’ fire-power should mask it, making a home win the most likely outcome.

Data Skrive projected the Cubs to beat the Phillies 5-3 despite Chicago being priced as a tiny home underdog at -106. Their model leaned on several nuggets: the Cubs have gone 7-3 over their last 10 with a 5.5-run scoring average, 16 homers and a 3.82 staff ERA, while the Phillies are just 4-6 in the same span with a bloated 5.20 ERA. Chicago has cashed 50% of its underdog spots on the season (7-7) and is 7-6 when listed +106 or longer, whereas Philadelphia has managed only a 52.6% win rate (10-9) when laying similar juice. The implied odds say Philly wins this game 61% of the time, but the Cubs’ recent form, deeper lineup hot streaks from Kyle Tucker (.308, 7 HR, 25 RBI) and Pete Crow-Armstrong (.295, 5 HR) and Chicago’s bullpen edge give value to grabbing the plus-money side.

Lonte Smith grabbed Chicago at –110 (essentially pick-em), arguing the market is underrating how well the Cubs have played at Wrigley (8-5 home, 16-10 overall). Smith trusts Ben Brown’s recent form—10 IP, 1 ER in his last two starts—and pointed out that Chicago’s lineup keeps producing clutch knocks, ranking top-10 in wOBA with runners in scoring position. Philadelphia has scuffled away from home: 4-8 road record, .225 average and an ERA north of 4.00 from its starters. Even with ace Jesus Luzardo dealing, Smith believes Chicago’s on-base ability and strong defensive metrics give them the edge, especially since both bullpens own ERAs north of 5.00 the past ten days. He expects the Cubs to scratch out enough offense in a low-scoring game and cash the moneyline.

Mike Maher urged managers to cash out on Pete Crow-Armstrong while he is scorching hot. PCA is slashing .305/.370/.561 with five homers and 10 steals, but Maher thinks the power is fool’s gold. The rookie’s average exit velocity ranks in the bottom third of qualified hitters and two of his home runs were opposite-field "pop-ups" that barely cleared the fence. His .352 BABIP and 23% strikeout rate signal batting-average downside once the liners stop falling in. Maher likes the speed—he projects 25+ bags—but expects single-digit home runs the rest of the way. He advised flipping Crow-Armstrong for a steadier bat (examples he gave: Josh Naylor, Bryson Stott, or Mitch Haniger) before pitchers adjust and the inevitable slump drags his value back to earth.

Ryan Wormeli labeled Aaron Nola a prime buy-low, arguing that virtually every underlying metric screams bad luck. Nola’s .364 BABIP is the fourth-highest in MLB (career .294), his 66.5% strand rate is far below his norms, and an absurd 24% HR/FB rate has inflated his 6.43 ERA. Meanwhile, his strikeout rate is actually up from last season, his walk rate remains reasonable, and both SIERA (3.45) and xFIP (3.38) are lower than they were in 2023. Wormeli also noted that Nola typically starts the season with reduced velocity that ticks up as temperatures rise; his April velo matches last April’s baseline. Facing a brutal early schedule (Nationals, Giants, Dodgers, Cardinals, Mets) has not helped. Wormeli concedes Nola may not return SP1 value, but says the price has cratered to the point where even SP3 production will be profitable for fantasy managers.

Michael Savio backed the Phillies as +115 road dogs largely because the Cubs’ bullpen is in shambles. Chicago already has three relievers on the IL and closer Ryan Pressly is nursing a knee issue. Spot-starter Colin Rea has been sharp (1.32 ERA) but has totaled only 10 1⁄3 innings across three April starts, meaning Chicago will need heavy bullpen coverage. Savio expects those tired, understaffed arms to crack once Rea exits. On the other side, Taijuan Walker (1-1, 2.29 ERA) has allowed just one run in three of his four outings and looks like a different pitcher than the version the Cubs torched in 2023-24. Savio projects a quality start from Walker, enough for Philly to capitalize on the Cubs’ late-inning weakness and steal the win.

Kenny G recommended a split total approach: under in the first five innings, but over 8/8.5 for the full game. His logic is that both starting pitchers—Taijuan Walker and Colin Rea—can be competent early, yet the bullpens are disastrous (Cubs 5.17 ERA, Phillies 5.50+ ERA). Chicago is 16-8-2 to the over on the season and leads MLB in most offensive categories, while Philadelphia’s pen has blown multiple one-run games this week. The market totals align with this narrative, posting 8 or 8.5 for the game but a much tighter first-five number. Kenny expects fireworks once the relievers enter, making the late-game over a strong bet despite a potentially quiet opening half.

Kenny G said to lay the short price on the Cubs moneyline, noting several matchup edges. Chicago owns an 8-3 home record and leads MLB in runs, batting average and OBP, while the Phillies have dropped three straight and are just 4-8 on the road. He is worried about Philadelphia’s ice-cold bats (2, 3, 1 and 4 runs in New York) and their bullpen carrying the second-worst ERA in baseball (5.50+). Conversely, Chicago’s spot starter Colin Rea has allowed just two earned runs with a 10/1 K/BB in his first two starts against the Dodgers and Diamondbacks, whereas Taijuan Walker was rocked for six runs in his last outing and now hands things to that shaky Philly relief corps. Given the Cubs’ explosive offense and the Phillies’ form, Kenny called Chicago a worthwhile favorite at –135.

Joe Pisapia said you should start or bet on Tommy Edman every time he faces the Cubs right now. Edman already has eight homers in April, just five shy of his single-season career high (13), and Pisapia dug up the crazy split that Edman has taken the Cubs deep 15 times in his career—triple the number he has against any other opponent. Chicago’s staff is reeling, and the Dodgers play them all weekend, so Pisapia views Edman as a plug-and-play DFS bat and an intriguing long-shot HR prop. The volume of match-ups plus Edman’s demonstrated “Cub-killer” history makes Pisapia confident the hot streak continues through the series.

Chris Welsh endorsed grabbing Porter Hodge wherever saves are scarce after the rookie worked a clean ninth to lock down a win over the Dodgers. Welsh reminded listeners that Chicago said in spring training Hodge would "get some looks" and Wednesday’s usage shows that promise is real. Ryan Pressly has a 5.00 ERA and shaky command, while Hodge’s expected ERA sits around 2.5 with a strong strikeout rate and declining walk percentage. With the waiver pool for closers drying up, Welsh ranked Hodge near the top of speculative add lists—above options like Cade Smith—because Pressly’s path to losing the ninth is far easier than Emmanuel Clase’s in Cleveland. If fantasy players need saves, Welsh urged them to grab Hodge now before the role solidifies.

Eric Lindquist advised taking the Cubs ‑1.5 at +160 because he expects Taijuan Walker’s shiny 2.29 ERA to come crashing down in a neutral-weather Wrigley matchup. Lindquist highlighted Walker’s underlying 3.76 xERA and 35% hard-hit rate, noting that all four of his 2024 starts have come in extremely soft run-suppression environments (home vs Colorado and Miami; wind-in start vs San Francisco; cold evening in Atlanta). Chicago’s lineup will not enjoy the same weather aid, and the Phillies’ bullpen owns the third-worst ERA in baseball when Walker inevitably exits early. By contrast, Colin Rea’s profile (47.7% ground-ball rate, improved cutter usage) and the Cubs’ league-average relief corps give Chicago a clear run-differential edge over nine innings, making the plus-money run line attractive.

Brian Howard said he will back the Cubs on the money-line Thursday even as books make them a modest –135 home favorite. His logic was simple but actionable: Chicago’s bats have been rolling all week, while Taijuan Walker’s velocity dip and 42 % hard-hit rate make him a fade in their first game after a travel day. Howard added that neither he nor co-host Kyle trusts Colin Rea long-term, yet the Cubs’ current form and home-field edge outweigh the Phillies’ theoretical lineup advantage, especially with Philadelphia dragging in from a road set. Bottom line: until the Cubs cool off, Howard prefers laying the short price rather than gambling on Walker at plus money.

Stephen noted Bryce Harper is hitless in 10 career at-bats against Colin Rea, an unusual blind spot given Harper’s overall form. While there are no strikeouts in the sample, the lack of hard contact led Stephen to wave a caution flag for Harper props and DFS exposure in this matchup.

Stephen warned that Taijuan Walker’s sparkling 2.29 ERA is smoke and mirrors. Walker’s strike-out rate sits below league average, his walk rate is creeping up, and his expected ERA projects closer to the mid-4s. Stephen recommended fading the veteran right-hander in the betting markets—whether that’s taking Brewers hitters in DFS or playing Milwaukee’s first-five team total—before the inevitable regression hits.

Cash Out Sports Picks recommended betting the full-game over. Six straight head-to-head meetings have cleared the total, including a 37-run three-game set last time these clubs met. Phillies bats have tagged Cubs pitching for 4+ runs in five of the last six, while Chicago has scored six or more in four of its past five games and owns MLB’s No. 3 batting average. Both bullpens have been leaking: Cubs arms carry a sub-5.00 ERA against Philly over the last 10, and the Phillies have surrendered 4+ runs in five straight overall. With Walker unreliable and Chicago’s offense rolling, the tout expects another shoot-out at Wrigley.

Cash Out Sports Picks advised taking the Cubs on the moneyline. He pointed out that Chicago owns the league’s best team batting average at .265 and has plated six-plus runs in four of its last five games. The Cubs have won four of those five, are 16-10 overall, and remain confident at Wrigley. Conversely, Philadelphia has lost four straight and continues to scuffle on the road, falling to 13-12 overall. Tout dismissed Taijuan Walker after noting a 16.20 ERA in his most recent Wrigley start and a .301 lifetime opponent average versus Chicago (93 ABs). Spot starter Jose Rios has limited the Phils to a .194 average (67 ABs) and is expected to get through four solid innings before handing off to the bullpen. With the Cubs’ lineup clicking and Walker’s poor history in this matchup, the tout sees a clear edge for Chicago.

Richard Louis relayed that the SportsLine Projection Model simulated Cubs-Phillies 10,000 times and came out with an average of 9.3 combined runs. With the market total sitting at 8, the model is officially “leaning Over,” implying a 1.3-run edge relative to the posted number. The model is riding a 13-6 (+415) start on top-rated MLB picks this season, so its projection carries weight. Bettors looking to tail the model would lock in the Over 8 before the line moves, banking on Chicago’s top-10 offense led by Kyle Tucker (1.060 OPS) and Philadelphia’s power duo of Kyle Schwarber and Bryson Stott to do most of the scoring damage.

Richard Louis relayed that the SportsLine Projection Model, fresh off a 13-6 run on top-rated picks (+415), spit out an average of 9.3 combined runs after 10,000 simulations of Friday’s Phillies-Cubs matchup. With FanDuel hanging the total at 8, the model is showing a full run and change of cushion, making the Over the recommended play. The projection leans on Chicago’s middle-of-the-order pop (Kyle Tucker already at 7 HR, .314 AVG, 1.060 OPS) and Philadelphia’s power tandem of Bryson Stott and Kyle Schwarber (both batting near .300 with 7 HR apiece) to offset two starters—Colin Rea (1.32 ERA) and Taijuan Walker (2.29 ERA)—who are still stretching out in the early season. Day-game conditions at Wrigley and a Phillies bullpen that has stumbled during a four-game losing skid further support the high-scoring script.

Josh Schonwald backed the Phillies at +120, pointing out several matchup edges that he believes the market is discounting. Philadelphia’s offense may not be as explosive as Chicago’s league-leading 6.27 runs per game, but it is still 12th in MLB at 4.4 runs per contest with a healthy .340 OBP. Schonwald noted the solid underlying pitching metrics for the Phillies — a 3.76 team FIP versus a 4.32 ERA that suggests some positive regression, plus a 3.28 K/BB ratio that ranks well above the Cubs’ 2.24 mark. He prefers Taijuan Walker (career 4.17 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 1,018 Ks in 1,173 IP) over Colin Rea (career 4.49 ERA, 1.27 WHIP) and highlighted Philadelphia’s superior team defense ( .989 fielding percentage, 5th in MLB) compared with Chicago’s .982 mark (24th). Chicago’s shaky late-game profile — 6 blown saves and only a 53.8% conversion rate — gives Walker the bullpen advantage as well. With those edges in starting pitching, fielding, and a bullpen that converts saves at the same rate as the Cubs despite fewer blown chances, Schonwald believes the +120 moneyline misprices the true win probability and labeled Philadelphia the play.