JD Bets targeted Santiago Espinal’s hits-plus-runs prop, taking Over 1.5 at –110. He pointed out that Espinal is torching southpaws this year, slashing .407 against left-handed pitching—the second-highest average on the Reds and backed by a month-long hot streak that has seen his contact quality spike. With Washington sending left-hander MacKenzie Gore to the hill, JD expects Espinal to keep raking. Gore has punched out plenty of hitters but still allows a .340 OBP to righties, giving Espinal multiple paths to two combined hits or runs. JD’s model flagged both Espinal’s recent form (five multi-hit games in his last nine starts) and Cincinnati’s favorable Great American Ball Park run environment as green lights for the Over.

Data Skrive backed the Reds moneyline at -122, projecting a 56% win probability and a 5-4 final. Their model leans on several data points: Cincinnati has been favored 18 times this year and won 55.6% of those games, including an 8-4 mark when priced at -122 or shorter. The Reds are also 6-3 as moneyline favorites over the last nine such spots while averaging 5.2 runs per game during that stretch. Meanwhile, Washington owns a 6.19 team ERA and a 4-6 record over its last 10, winning just 46.4% of its 28 underdog games on the season. With Great American Ball Park’s hitter-friendly backdrop and the Reds’ recent offensive surge (nine homers in the last 10 contests), Data Skrive sees the current price as slight value on Cincinnati.

Kenny G expects Cincinnati to bounce back at –120 even though he stopped short of making it a pinned play. He cited the Reds’ quietly elite bullpen (3.52 ERA, top-10) against a Washington relief corps that is the worst in baseball at 6.79. Starter Nick Martinez has shown real progress with quality outings versus Miami and St. Louis, whereas MacKenzie Gore allowed two homers last start and now hands things to that shaky pen. The Reds offense, led by Elly De La Cruz and Gavin Lux, is fourth in MLB scoring after erupting for 24 runs earlier in the week and has posted 6-6-9 in its last three. With Washington just 6-12 away from home and Cincinnati playing .500 at Great American Ball Park, Kenny believes the modest price is justified by the clear late-inning advantage.

For the total, he leaned OVER. Cincinnati owns the second-highest scoring offense and had posted six-plus runs in six of nine before Saturday. Washington is bottom-five in NL scoring but had produced 4+ runs in four of six entering the weekend. These clubs have gone over in 17 combined games and two of their last three head-to-head. Great American Ballpark remains a launching pad, and a leaky Nationals bullpen (worst ERA/WHIP) creates late-inning chaos. Expect the score to clear the number.

Cash Out Sports Picks sided with the Reds. MacKenzie Gore leads MLB in strikeouts and generally logs 6-plus innings, but Cincinnati’s offense is no joke—175 runs, top-10 in BA/OBP/SLG, and a park that rewards fly balls, which Gore allows twice as often as grounders. Nick Martinez has righted the ship, coughing up only three runs on 10 hits across his last 11.2 innings. Washington’s bullpen owns the worst ERA and WHIP in baseball, intensifying pressure on Gore. With the hotter bats and the sharper recent starter, the Reds are the call on the money line.

Drew Martin advised taking the Nationals around +113 in Cincinnati. He is riding starter MacKenzie Gore’s current heater: the 26-year-old former No. 3 overall pick has worked 6+ innings in five consecutive outings and owns a sparkling 59-to-9 K/BB ratio, with 27 punch-outs in his last three starts alone. Martin believes Nick Martinez is a fade candidate at 1-3 with a 4.70 ERA, and he pointed out that the Reds’ recent wins came against lightweights (Cardinals and Rockies). With the better arm on the mound and a lineup he grades slightly higher than Cincinnati’s versus right-handed pitching, Martin feels the wrong team is favored and is happy to list Gore and bet Washington.

Kenny G recommended eating the -180 with Cincinnati, calling it a potential lock-of-the-day. Nick Lodolo sports a 2.25 ERA and is fresh off seven shutout innings at Coors Field, reinforcing why Kenny trusts him against a Nationals lineup that has scored only 1, 4 and 2 runs in its last three and ranks 22nd in OBP. Washington counters with Trevor Williams, whose 5.70 ERA includes a shelling by the Mets and an earlier beating from Miami. The real deal-breaker, Kenny noted, is bullpen disparity: Cincinnati’s pen owns a 3.32 ERA (top-10) while Washington’s sits dead last at nearly 7.00. Add in the Nats’ 5-11 road mark versus the Reds’ recent 6- and 9-run offensive outputs, and Kenny sees Cincinnati grabbing an early lead and never letting the league’s worst relief unit back in.

Dylan Rockford echoed the Lodolo angle but specified he will bet Cincinnati on FanDuel’s ‘first-five result’ market to dodge late-inning chaos. Lodolo’s slider has generated a 39% whiff rate and his 2.25 ERA comes with a 2.84 xERA, reinforcing that the lefty is legit. Trevor Williams is a pitch-to-contact arm (16% strikeout rate) facing a park that inflates homers by 17%. Rockford thinks books overpriced the full-game side at –185 given Cincinnati’s bullpen woes, but anything –150 or shorter on the F5 money line/result is worth a ticket.

Scott Reichel grabbed Reds –0.5 in the first five innings, projecting Nick Lodolo to dominate a light-hitting Nationals lineup. Lodolo boasts a 2.25 ERA, 31% strikeout rate, and an elite 55% ground-ball mark—perfect for Great American Ball Park. Trevor Williams brings a 5.70 ERA and minimal swing-and-miss stuff, dangerous against a Cincinnati club that ranks top-10 in hard-hit rate at home. Reichel wants no part of the Reds’ volatile bullpen, so isolating the starting-pitching mismatch makes sense; if the F5 juice climbs, he’ll pivot to plus-money on the full-game –1.5 run line.

Purviance is laying –1.5 with Cincinnati at +110. Washington’s pen had to cover five innings Thursday, and its 5.46 ERA already ranks last in the league. Nick Lodolo can still flash ace stuff—30 % K-rate in his good outings and nine punch-outs in Colorado his last time out—while Trevor Williams carries a 4.78 xERA and .270 ISO allowed to lefties, a bad mix with Elly De La Cruz and Jake Fraley waiting. Kyle expects Lodolo to go six solid, the Reds to break things open once Williams exits, and a multi-run cushion to follow.

Projected score: Reds 4-3. Nick Lodolo’s 2.25 ERA dwarfs Trevor Williams’ 5.70, and Cincinnati owns the bullpen advantage. At 18-15, the Reds lay -190 against a 14-19 Washington team. The park’s pitcher-friendly dimensions plus Lodolo’s strikeout rate lead the model to pair the moneyline with the Under 8.5.

Joe Pisapia advised betting Elly De La Cruz to swipe a bag at +194 tonight against Washington. Nationals catcher Keibert Ruiz has gunned down only 20–26% of runners this season, providing a green light for MLB’s stolen-base leader. Pisapia framed the price as nearly 2-to-1 on an elite skill in a favorable battery matchup that projects Max Fried-type pace to the plate. He called it his favorite prop of the day and suggested folding it into a small long-shot parlay with two other power props for a 50-to-1 payout.

Guy Boston said to take Hunter Greene under 2.5 earned runs on DraftKings at –170. He pointed out that Greene has held opponents below this number in 4 of 6 starts this year (67%) while posting just 1.83 ER per outing. Looking back 20 starts, the hit rate rises to 75% with a 1.5 ER average. Washington ranks only 18th in batting average against right-handed pitching, and Greene sits in the 94th percentile for batting-average allowed. Although he was rocked in Colorado (3 ER) and Baltimore (5 ER), Boston expects a bounce-back because Greene limited the Nats to exactly two earned runs in their last meeting (3/30/24). All told, he sees a favorable matchup and historical trend that make the under a solid leg for his Freaky Friday parlay.

Cash Out Sports Picks played the full-game UNDER, citing multiple support points. Cincinnati has cashed the under in 6 of its last 8 and owns the league’s 2nd-best opponent batting average (.209) with just 2.97 walks per game. Greene’s home dominance plus Washington’s meager 3.67 road runs per game and .613 OPS suppress scoring. Overall run environments: Reds’ home games average 8.06 runs, well below the likely posted total near 9. With both teams travelling on short rest and Cincinnati’s pen ranking top-10 in WHIP, the tout projected something like 4-2 or 3-2 and advised betting the under.

Cash Out Sports Picks recommended taking the Cincinnati Reds money line. The tout pointed to Hunter Greene’s current heater — 35 K in 31.2 IP with only 9 ER allowed, and a ridiculous .123 opponent average at Great American Ballpark (1.42 ERA over 19 home innings). In contrast, Washington starter Parker just walked five with zero strike-outs in his last outing and has generally struggled to fool hitters on the road. Both clubs played Thursday, but Cincinnati’s rain-delayed game left Washington’s bullpen in better shape; the Reds’ pen could still be fresher because Greene is expected to work deep. Cincinnati is also 8th in MLB at 4.97 runs per game while the Nationals’ road OPS sits at a weak .613. Putting the hot pitcher, better offense and home field together, the tout saw value in laying the price with the Reds.

Greg Peterson laid the -1.5 run line with Cincinnati at +130 because Hunter Greene has tightened up his control (1.5 BB/9 after 3.4+ the previous three seasons) while still missing bats at an elite 10.6 K/9 clip and carrying a 2.70 ERA. Washington counters with rookie Mitchell Parker, whose 2.65 ERA looks shaky next to a 3.80 FIP and a meek 4.8 K/9. Peterson added that the Nationals’ bullpen entered Thursday with a league-worst 7.41 ERA, giving the Reds a big edge once Greene exits. He power-rated the run line at -1.5 +105, so anything at plus money is a bet for him.

Kenny G said the 8.5-run total in Nationals–Reds is too high because both starters are primed for rebound efforts. He expects rookie left-hander Mitchell Parker to look more like the arm that spun eight scoreless frames against Baltimore rather than the one that surrendered seven runs to the Mets, attributing the blow-up to simple arm fatigue. On the other side, Hunter Greene’s 2.70 ERA remains elite and Kenny dismissed his three-run line at Coors as altitude noise, noting he still fanned eight with no walks. Greene’s fastball/slider combo plus Cincinnati’s respectable 3.41 bullpen ERA should keep Washington’s middling lineup (16th in runs) quiet. Although the Nationals pen owns a league-worst 7.12 ERA, Kenny thinks the Reds’ bats—stat-padded by a 24-run outlier—won’t erupt early, making both the first-five under and the full-game under 8.5 live. He added a small lean to Reds ‑167 on the moneyline because their offense ranks 7th in runs and will eventually get cracks at that awful Washington relief corps, but the best bet in his view is the under.

Eric Lindquist tagged Cincinnati ‑1.5 as a lean, citing a massive mound mismatch. Hunter Greene owns a .200 expected batting average, 4.2% walk rate and 30% strikeout rate, numbers that justify laying lumber even in homer-friendly Great American Ball Park. Greene’s only red flag is a 10.9% barrel rate, but Lindquist is comfortable fading Washington because Mitchell Parker brings just a 13% K-rate and very little swing-and-miss upside. Lindquist concedes the Nationals have pop with CJ Abrams, James Wood and Dylan Crews on the horizon, yet believes Greene’s dominance plus Cincinnati’s quality bullpen give the Reds clear run-line value at current pricing.

Mike Maher acknowledged that Nick Lodolo’s gaudy surface numbers (.194 BAA, 0.86 WHIP) will cool once his absurd 3.5% walk rate and .214 BABIP correct, but he still prefers holding rather than selling. Maher pointed to Lodolo’s 32% chase rate and 15% swinging-strike rate—both career highs—as evidence the stuff has taken a step forward. Even if the WHIP rises, Great American Ball Park suppresses his best pitch, the curveball, less than people think; opponents are hitting .132 with a 41% whiff on it. Maher expects the ERA to land in the low-3s with a strikeout-per-inning pace, making Lodolo a solid SP3 for the rest of 2024. He advised only moving him if someone pays SP2 prices before that inevitable regression shows up in the box score.

Ron Romanelli said to back the Reds on both the money-line and run-line because Hunter Greene still owns the clear ceiling edge over rookie Mitchell Parker. Greene has coughed up five homers and eight earned runs in his last nine innings, but his 29 % strikeout rate lines up well against a Nationals lineup that chases at the sixth-highest clip in baseball. Great American Ball Park can punish any pitcher, yet Romanelli argues Parker is far more vulnerable after walking five and striking out none in his most recent start and now heading into the league’s most homer-friendly yard. Cincinnati has been top-10 in wRC+ versus lefties the past two weeks, and their bullpen is rested, so Romanelli expects Greene to pile up punch-outs while the Reds provide enough support to cover multiple ways.

Scott Reichel took the opposite stance, saying he will grab the Nationals moneyline if bookmakers hang the heavy price he’s anticipating on Cincinnati. Reichel expects Hunter Greene’s name value to push the Reds north of -150, even though Greene has labored in his last two starts (8 earned on 13 hits). Outside of one blow-up versus the Mets, Mitchell Parker has been solid, allowing fewer than three earned runs in every other appearance. Reichel noted that Washington has been ‘feisty’ and, at a big plus number, offers better value than an over-priced Reds club riding inconsistent offense. His cut-off to fire is roughly +150 or better.

Lonte Smith said he would attack this matchup by playing the Reds on the run line rather than eating a likely-hefty moneyline. His case is built on Hunter Greene’s talent edge and the venue: Greene pitches at home while rookie Mitchell Parker heads to the hitter-friendly Great American Ball Park. Smith pointed out Washington’s 1-6 road record, Parker’s pitch-to-contact profile (just three strikeouts per start over his last five) and the fact that Parker is coming off his worst outing of the year – 6 earned runs and 5 walks against the Mets. Cincinnati has gone 6-4 over its last ten, and in those four losses the club scored fewer than two runs each time. Smith expects the bats to perk up against a low-K lefty, so he prefers Cincinnati -1.5 for plus money instead of laying an inflated number on the moneyline.

Welsh said fantasy players scrambling for saves should grab Emilio Pagan immediately because the veteran has effectively seized Cincinnati’s ninth-inning role after Alexis Diaz was optioned. Pagan is already sitting 96-97 with a splitter that carries a 35 % whiff rate, and he has converted each of his recent chances while limiting walks— historically his biggest problem—to just 5 % this year. With the Reds offense surging and manager David Bell publicly praising Pagan’s "stabilizing presence," Welsh believes 25-plus saves are within reach the rest of the way and predicts his roster percentage will jump from 28 % on ESPN to over 70 % by the weekend.