Boston prefers the Orioles’ team-total over rather than the full-game total. Paddack’s 46 % fly-ball rate and difficulty keeping the ball on the ground collide with a hot, humid Camden Yards and a five-mph breeze to left. Baltimore already ranks near the top of MLB in barrel rate against right-handers, giving them multiple paths to crooked numbers. He avoided the full-game over because Sagano induces grounders and Minnesota profiles as a ground-ball offense, but sees a clear edge in backing Baltimore’s bats to clear their individual number.

Guy Boston backed Baltimore to avoid a three-game sweep against Minnesota. He cited the "no-sweep" angle, Baltimore’s superior numbers versus right-handed pitching, and Chris Paddack’s road inconsistency. Sagano has posted three straight quality outings (5 scoreless vs NYY, 6 strong vs KC, 7.2 IP/1 ER vs LAA) while the hot, humid conditions and modest wind blowing out favor Baltimore’s fly-ball heavy lineup. With the Twins only two games over .500, Boston expects the Orioles to seize a mid-game lead and protect it late.

Kenny G pegged Minnesota at +115 as his Dog of the Day, citing a perfect storm of form and bullpen edges. The Twins have rattled off ten straight wins, averaging 5.8 runs during the streak and finally climbing out of the league’s bottom third in slugging. Chris Paddack looks revitalized, allowing two or fewer earned runs in four of his last five outings and coming off 7.1 dominant frames versus San Francisco. Behind him waits MLB’s fifth-best bullpen (3.08 ERA). Baltimore counters with rookie import Tomoyuki Sugano (2.72 ERA), but Kenny warned that even a strong start can be undone by the Orioles’ relief corps, which ranks 25th with a 5.04 ERA. Offensively Baltimore has cratered—26th in runs, 26th in average (.227)—making it hard to justify a –135 price tag. Given Minnesota’s momentum, the superior pen, and a plus number on the moneyline, Kenny believes the Twins are undervalued and should complete the sweep.

For the same game, he leaned UNDER the posted total. Both starters are coming off identical 7.1-inning, one-run, three-hit gems. Sugano’s season line is 2.73 ERA with a 1.01 WHIP, while, if you throw out Paddack’s rocky debut, he owns a 2.97 ERA with 28 strikeouts to 12 walks over his last seven outings. Over the past week Baltimore ranks 13th in wRC+ and 16th in ISO, Minnesota sits 15th and 17th, respectively—hardly fearsome. Baltimore has allowed more than three runs in just two of Sugano’s eight starts all year. Add Minnesota’s sturdy bullpen and the tout expects a tight, low-scoring matinee that cashes an under ticket.

Bettor Mark projected a shoot-out in the Twins-Orioles matchup and made Over 9 runs (–105) an official wager. He highlighted Chris Paddack’s volatility and Baltimore’s strong splits versus right-handed pitching as reasons the Orioles can "get to Paddack." Minnesota’s lineup has been "sneakily hot" of late, giving him confidence they can do damage against Shugano, whose underlying metrics and platoon splits lean hitter-friendly. With both offenses ranking top-10 in hard-hit rate over the past week and Camden Yards offering a homer-friendly backdrop, Mark expects multiple crooked numbers and prefers the full-game total to derivative markets.

The model projects Minnesota 4-3 and makes the Twins a value play at +110 despite being road dogs. Chris Paddack’s 4.76 ERA is ugly, but his 24% strikeout rate and 3.63 xERA hint at better days. Baltimore counters with Tomoyuki Sugano (2.72 ERA), yet the Orioles have lost six of his last eight starts because of an anemic offense that ranks 28th in OPS (.657). With both lineups bottom-five in wRC+ against right-handed pitching this month, the computer assigns a 54% likelihood to the game staying Under the 9-run total and a 52% win probability to Minnesota—good enough for plus money.

Just A Bet Outside spotlighted Gunnar Henderson as another hitter to target for a 1+ hit prop or DFS usage. Henderson is 3-for-4 off Chris Paddack in his brief career and enters play hitting .370 over the past seven days. The left-swinging shortstop owns dramatic home/road and platoon splits—slashing .333 at Camden Yards and .321 versus right-handed pitching compared to .213 and .167 respectively in the opposite situations this season. Paddack’s 1.7 HR/9 and 43% hard-hit rate to lefties further strengthen the matchup. Given the hot bat, friendly park, and ideal handedness edge, the tout expects Henderson to stay locked-in and recommends betting the over on his total bases or simple single hit markets.

Cash Out Sports Picks urged bettors to grab Minnesota on the money-line at plus money. The Twins have ripped off a ten-game winning streak (including five straight head-to-head victories over Baltimore in the last eight days) and just swept a double-header. While rookie right-hander Tomoyuki Sugano sports a sharp 2.72 ERA and 1.10 WHIP, the Orioles’ bullpen is a disaster—26th in ERA and dead last in WHIP and opponent batting average, having blown the back end of Wednesday’s double-header. Michael Paddack has stabilized for Minnesota, allowing only 12 earned runs across his last 36.1 innings. With the hotter lineup, far better relief corps, and plus odds attached, the tout believes the streaking Twins are mis-priced and should be backed to stay perfect in May.

Eric Lindquist said Trevor Larnach’s 1.5 hits-plus-runs-plus-RBIs prop belongs in Thursday’s betting ‘like’ column. Lindquist highlighted Kodai Senga’s severe left-handed power issue—355 xwOBA, 503 xSLG overall with just a 14.2 % K-rate—and noted that Senga’s splitter can’t be spammed versus lefties. Larnach, who will bat second in front of Byron Buxton, owns a 38 % hard-hit rate, a gaudy 116.3 mph max exit velocity, a 13-degree launch angle, and a 36.1 % sweet-spot rate. With Matt Wallner still hurt and Max Kepler now in Philadelphia, Larnach will shoulder the platoon-edge offense for Minnesota. Lindquist expects at least four plate appearances and thinks recency bias from Wednesday’s homer might slightly inflate the number, but anything near even money on the over is playable.

Data Skrive hung Byron Buxton at +280 to go yard, but his 2025 production—9 homers in 40 games (22.5% HR rate)—falls shy of the 26.3% break-even probability baked into +280. Unless bettors have an additional edge (weather, pitcher matchup) that isn’t reflected in the raw numbers, the current price looks a bit rich and is one to pass on.

Eric Pathi advised laying ‑135 with the Baltimore Orioles on 5/15/25, calling it a "rare favorite" for him. He said the play fits his personal Rule-of-10 system—this will be Baltimore’s 11th straight game meeting that rule—making it one of the few spots where he is willing to swallow juice. Pathi stressed that he almost never recommends favorites but views this price as justified given the current form of the Orioles and the situational angle created by his Rule-of-10 filter. He encouraged bettors who "can’t afford to pay me" to simply lay the 30–35 cents and move on, emphasizing that the free pick always arrives within the first minute of his videos.

JD Bets advised taking the Twins +1.5 runs at a juicy +175. Minnesota have ripped off ten straight wins after sweeping Wednesday’s double-header to climb above .500, while Baltimore have now dropped two in a row. He highlighted right-hander Chris Paddack’s strong form (1.6 earned runs per outing in 2025) and noted the Orioles’ lineup is considerably stronger versus righties yet has done little against Paddack historically. With both offenses fairly even and the market still pricing the streaking Twins as underdogs, JD said he is ‘riding the streak’ until bookmakers adjust.

Donaldson sprinkled one unit on Ryan O'Hearn to homer at +650. He notes O’Hearn is "swinging a hot bat" with a 53% hard-hit rate over the last two weeks and mashes belt-high heaters—exactly what Paddack likes to challenge hitters with. In a night expected to carry well to right field, Donaldson views O’Hearn as the sneaky power piece with the best odds among Orioles’ left-handed bats.

Donaldson jammed two props on Adley Rutschman: over 1.5 total bases for three units and a one-unit homer ticket at +600. Rutschman owns a .380 wOBA versus right-handed fastballs this year and has been scorching with seven hits in his last three games. Chris Paddack’s below-average changeup gives Rutschman platoon advantage from the left side and Donaldson believes the humid Baltimore forecast will reward Adley’s towering fly-ball profile.

Donaldson bet Jackson Holliday over 1.5 total bases at plus money (three units). He expects Camden’s hitter-friendly conditions and Chris Paddack’s straight four-seamer to play into Holliday’s gap-to-gap approach. The rookie left-hander owns a 44% hard-hit rate against right-handers and has already stacked nine extra-base hits in his first 60 MLB plate appearances. Donaldson sees multiple avenues—double in the alley, single and a steal, or a pull-side homer—for Holliday to cash this ladder play.

Donaldson laid four units on the Orioles full-game money line. His case: Baltimore still crushes right-handed pitching despite an otherwise disappointing season, and Chris Paddack is the exact profile he wants to attack—46% fastball usage with mediocre ride and an 11% barrel rate allowed. Weather at Camden Yards is projected to be hitter-friendly with mid-70s temps and a slight breeze to left. Donaldson also trusts starter Sugano (the lone consistent arm in the O’s rotation, per his words) to keep the game close through six before a superior Baltimore bullpen takes over.

Soni targeted Henderson’s +360 home-run prop, pointing to the infielder’s torrid five-game tear (.409/.458/.955, three HR, 1.413 OPS). With Minnesota’s Chris Paddack on the hill, Soni believes the red-hot bat and attractive odds create a high-upside wager for bettors chasing power.

Soni advised taking Buxton at +250 to homer despite facing Baltimore’s Tomoyuki Sugano (2.72 ERA). He noted Buxton’s nine homers, .520 SLG, 9.9 % barrel rate per plate appearance, and 91.1 mph average exit velocity. The raw power metrics outweigh the respectable opposing ERA, making the Twins slugger a viable bet for a round-tripper.

Guy Boston said he would lean to both the Orioles moneyline and the full-game over 9 runs in the opener of Wednesday’s double-header with Minnesota. He pointed to Baltimore’s pronounced platoon advantage— the O’s post a far better wRC+ versus right-handed pitching, whereas the Twins are noticeably weaker in that split. Dean Kremer has been "serviceable" at Camden Yards, giving Baltimore a steady arm, while the Orioles lineup gets to attack another right-hander in Bailey Ober. Weather looks hitter-friendly with temps near 70, a light breeze and only a 21 % rain chance. Boston projected something like a 5-4 final and acknowledged the volatility of double-headers, but still felt the offensive edge and mild conditions made Baltimore plus the over the side worth considering.

He recommended under the total in the second game, noting the trend: Minnesota unders have cashed in seven of ten, Baltimore unders in seven of ten. Last week’s three-game series produced just 24 combined runs and two unders. With both lineups capped at four runs or fewer in most recent contests and Woods Richardson at least passable, he expects another modest offensive output.

He followed up by betting the full-game under. Neither offense is lighting it up—Minnesota averages only four runs and Baltimore has pushed across 24 total in its last eight games. Dean Kremer can give the Orioles a handful of solid innings, and Ober mixes soft contact with strikeouts. With both clubs struggling in their home/road splits and recent head-to-head unders cashing twice in last week’s three-game set, the tout likes this to stay beneath the posted number.

Lindquist advised monitoring Baltimore’s Game 2 pitching plans because if rookie left-hander Cade Povich draws the start, Byron Buxton’s home-run prop becomes a priority bet. Povich’s minor-league track record shows command volatility and a 1.45 HR/9 versus righties, while Buxton owns elite batted-ball metrics when healthy (career 12.1 % barrel rate, 49 % hard-hit). Camden Yards still rewards right-handed pull power even after the wall move, and Lindquist believes Buxton’s recent run of health makes him Minnesota’s best bet to punish any mistakes from the inexperienced southpaw.

Eric Lindquist said Gunnar Henderson is worth a plus-money home-run sprinkle in Game 1 of Wednesday’s Twins-Orioles double-header. His reasoning: Bailey Ober carries just a 19.4 % K-rate, a 20.2° average launch angle allowed and a fly-ball profile that plays poorly in Camden Yards’ left-handed power alley. Henderson, who struggled in April, has heated up over the past two weeks and is finally elevating the baseball again. Lindquist stressed that the combination of a lefty slugger on the upswing, a park that boosts left-handed power and Ober’s mediocre bat-missing ability justifies attacking Henderson’s HR prop or at minimum his total-bases markets.

Dylan Rockford said the market is still sleeping on a red-hot Twins club that has finally escaped his personal “do-not-bet” list. Minnesota has won seven of nine, is scoring 4.9 runs per game on the road, and carries a top-10 bullpen that lets him trust a full-game wager. Baltimore, meanwhile, is listing two TBD starters for the double-header; Rockford expects Dean Kremer to grab one slot and either Simeon Woods Richardson or another depth arm to take the other. He sees little, if any, pricing gap no matter which combination the Orioles choose and projects the moneyline near –115 for Minnesota. With the books hanging plus money or short–dog numbers, Rockford is happy to back the Twins outright and would sprinkle an alternate line if Minnesota opens above +105.

Kenny G backed the Minnesota Twins at -110 in Game 1 of Wednesday’s double-header in Baltimore. He trusts Bailey Ober (4-1, 3.50 ERA) after the right-hander held the O’s to two runs over five frames in their last meeting, a 5-2 Twins win. Minnesota is riding an eight-game winning streak, its bullpen sits 7th-8th in MLB with a 3.28 ERA, and the bats have produced 7, 2, 3, 5, 5 and 9 runs during the streak. Dean Kremer (3-4, 5.24 ERA) counters for Baltimore but has been blown up by Detroit and Washington recently and will hand the ball to a bullpen that ranks 4th-worst (ERA just over 5.00). Offensively the Orioles have fallen to 26th in runs and OBP, a far cry from last year’s power surge. With those matchup and form advantages, Kenny expects Minnesota to extend its streak; he only leans to the under 9 total but the official play is Twins moneyline.

For game two, Cash Out Sports Picks stuck with Minnesota. Baltimore sits nine games under .500 and owns one of MLB’s worst pitching staffs through 39 contests. Although Simeon Woods Richardson sports a 5.30 ERA and .301 opponent average on the road, the tout still trusts Minnesota’s superior lineup and bullpen against an Orioles club that has scored four or fewer in seven of its last ten. Momentum from an eight-game winning run adds to the edge.

Cash Out Sports Picks said the Twins are a money-line buy in the first game of the double-header. Minnesota has ripped off eight straight victories while Baltimore has stumbled to a 4-6 mark in its last 10. He pointed to the Twins’ offense—Harrison Bader, Byron Buxton and company are producing hard-hit contact—and to Bailey Ober’s ability to suppress an Orioles lineup scoring only 3.77 runs per game. Baltimore’s recent seven-game series edge flipped when Minnesota swept them last week, and with Ober backed by a solid bullpen the tout expects the streak to hit nine.

Francis grabbed the Twins as underdogs against Baltimore because Minnesota has rattled off eight straight wins and, in his words, is "one of the hottest teams in baseball right now." He labeled the Orioles "absolute garbage" and wants to ride the current form, noting the attractive plus-money price while the streak is alive.

Guy Boston said to play Carlos Correa over 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs at ‑125 on BetMGM. Correa has topped this number in only four of his last ten and 16 of 38 games on the season (42%), but Boston is attacking the matchup. Correa owns a .364 average and 215 wRC+ in 23 plate appearances against left-handed pitching this year versus .231 and 69 wRC+ overall. Orioles rookie lefty Cade Povich has been crushed by right-handed bats: 6.59 ERA, .322 average against, 2.3 HR/9 and .400 wOBA. Correa homered off Povich back in 2018, and a single bomb would clear the prop. Boston called the matchup “too sweet to ignore” despite the mediocre baseline data.

Eric Lindquist recommended hammering the full-game over in Tuesday’s Twins-Orioles tilt at Camden Yards, grabbing the –108 still hanging at FanDuel before it matches the –115 elsewhere. Weather helps: the forecast has the wind blowing toward the left-field pole, adding carry to an outfield that Baltimore already shortened this season. The bigger edge is on the mound. Minnesota rookie Simeon Woods Richardson sports a 17% barrel rate, 5.43 expected slugging and 393 xwOBA, while Baltimore call-up Cade Povich owns a 12% barrel rate of his own. Neither misses bats and both have been tattooed by opposite-handed hitters. Lindquist rattled off a parade of right-handed thumpers—Byron Buxton, Ryan Jeffers, Carlos Correa, Royce Lewis for Minnesota; Gunnar Henderson, Ryan O’Hearn, Adley Rutschman, Cedric Mullins for Baltimore—who will enjoy the platoon edge and the weather assist. He is comfortable playing any number at 8.5 or lower and expects runs early and often.

Malcolm Bamford echoed the play, calling it a ‘WTF line.’ He trusts Woods Richardson’s steady 4.01 ERA far more than rookie Cade Povich, whom the Twins lit up 9-1 just days ago. Minnesota enters Tuesday on an eight-game heater, while Baltimore’s lineup looks lifeless. Bamford saw nothing—schedule, form, or pitching matchup—that justifies Baltimore laying –130 and urged bettors to lock in the Twins at plus money before the market corrects.

Lonte Smith grabbed Minnesota at +110, calling Baltimore the wrong favorite. The Twins just swept the O’s 3–0 last week, out-scoring them 19-5, and have plated 5+ runs in each of those meetings. Woods Richardson has allowed two runs or fewer in four of his last five starts, while Baltimore’s Cade Povich was torched for five earned over six innings in that same series. Minnesota’s only weakness is left-handed pitching, but Smith noted that Povich’s underlying metrics (10% walk rate, 42% hard-hit rate) don’t scare him. With the Twins riding an eight-game win streak and Baltimore finishing a 2-4 road trip, he likes the plus-money value.

Kenny G flagged the Twins at +115 as his favorite underdog. Minnesota rides an eight-game winning streak and hands the ball to Simeon Woods Richardson, who owns a 2.01 ERA and has not surrendered more than two earned in any of his past three outings. The Twins bullpen ranks inside the top 10, giving him a trustworthy bridge to the finish line. On the flip side, Baltimore starts Kade Povich (5.55 ERA) who just coughed up five earned in six frames to these same Twins. The Orioles pen sits fourth-worst with a 5.06 ERA, and their offense has cratered to 26th in OBP, 26th in batting average and 24th in runs scored. Given Minnesota’s superior bullpen, the in-form lineup (7, 2, 3, 5, 5 and 9 runs in the last six) and recent head-to-head success versus Povich, Kenny sees real value grabbing plus money on the road side despite the Twins’ 6-14 away record.

He doubled up with the over, noting Camden Yards’ hitter-friendly profile, both bullpens being "stretched thin," and two starters with shaky control (combined 24 walks, 13 homers). Minnesota averages 5.2 runs over its last five, while Baltimore pitchers own a 5.31 team ERA and allow 5.2 runs per game at home where two-thirds of contests have gone over. Despite the Twins’ solid 3.32 team ERA, the tout expects early offense and late bullpen leakage to push the total past the number.

Johnny Venezia recommended streaming Dean Kremer for his upcoming start against Minnesota and possibly beyond. While Kremer’s season ERA sits at 5.24 with a 30:11 K:BB over 44.2 innings, Venezia noted the right-hander has found something lately—14 innings of two-run ball across his last two outings. Because Baltimore failed to add a true ace, Kremer has the opportunity to seize a larger role, and Venezia thinks fantasy managers can squeeze two to three quality starts out of him if the hot streak holds. Kremer is rostered in only 6 percent of leagues, making him a near-free option for managers needing an immediate boost, but Venezia cautioned this is a short-term play rather than a season-long investment.

The tout grabbed the Minnesota Twins money line at Camden Yards. Minnesota has ripped off eight straight wins, including a May 6-8 sweep of Baltimore in which they out-scored the O’s 19-5. Simon Woods Richardson has surrendered only 11 hits and 5 runs over his last 14.2 innings, while Baltimore’s Cade Povich just gave up 5 ER in 6 IP versus these same Twins and has allowed 3+ ER in five of seven starts (5.55 ERA overall). With the Twins’ momentum and the starting-pitching edge, Cash Out Sports Picks likes Minnesota to stay hot on Tuesday.