Joe Jensen recommended betting the full-game UNDER 7.5 runs at ‑110 and staked it for two units. He pointed to Nathan Eovaldi’s Cy Young-caliber form (1.61 ERA, 0.77 WHIP, 65 K in 56 IP, only three homers allowed) and noted the UNDER is 7-3 in Eovaldi’s ten 2025 starts. Carlos Rodon is not as dominant but still sports a 3.17 ERA and 0.99 WHIP. Jensen highlighted several run-suppressing factors: Texas ranks 25th in wRC+ (86) while batting just .225, Corey Seager and Evan Carter are out, and both clubs combined for only 14 runs in the first two games of the series. A day-game-after-a-night-game at Yankee Stadium, with cloudy low-70s weather and a tough early-afternoon hitting backdrop, should further mute offense. Even though New York’s bullpen (3.32 ERA) is slightly worn after heavy use, Jensen expects two rested starters to work deep, making a low-scoring pitcher’s duel the likeliest script.

Jensen recommended UNDER 1.5 Total Bases for Aaron Judge at +120. Despite Judge leading MLB with a .403 AVG and .491 OBP, the analyst expects reduced production against Nathan Eovaldi, who has limited hitters to a .183 average and yielded only three long balls across 56 innings. The early-afternoon start at Yankee Stadium historically dampens exit velocity, and the cloudy forecast further favors pitchers. Judge faces a pitcher sitting on a 0.43 ERA over his last 21 frames and carrying a 0.77 WHIP season-to-date, so Jensen anticipates fewer solid contact opportunities than the market implies, making the plus-money under a viable fade.

Although Texas has lost three straight and is just 8-15 on the road, Joe Jensen suggested grabbing the Rangers moneyline at +135 because "the price is too good to pass up with Eovaldi on the mound." He argues the Yankees may suffer a let-down after two emotional wins, and their bullpen has shown signs of fatigue after heavy use in the series. Eovaldi’s 1.61 ERA gives Texas a clear edge over Carlos Rodon, who has a 3.64 home ERA and has surrendered 3+ earned runs in three of his last five starts. Missing bats and limiting homers (just three allowed all year), Eovaldi offers Texas a realistic path to steal the getaway-day finale, making the dog price attractive.

Joe Jensen played Nathan Eovaldi OVER 6.5 strikeouts at +110, calling it an "excellent value" prop. Eovaldi owns a 10.4 K/9 rate with 65 punch-outs in 56 innings and has cleared 6.5 Ks in six of ten outings, including three of his last four. Jensen expects the right-hander to stay aggressive against a Yankees lineup that, while powerful, has shown strikeout tendencies and is missing Giancarlo Stanton and Jazz Chisholm. Additional angles: Eovaldi has allowed only a .183 opponent average, is on a streak of one earned run over his last 21 frames (0.43 ERA), and should be highly motivated facing the team that drafted him. With New York’s swing-heavy approach and plus odds attached, Jensen views seven or more strikeouts as the most likely outcome.

Michael Savio advised betting Under 7.5 runs for Rangers-Yankees, hanging the play on a vintage pitching matchup. He highlighted Nathan Eovaldi’s career-best form at age 35: a 1.61 ERA, 0.77 WHIP overall and an absurd 0.48 ERA across three May starts. Savio noted that although the Yankees used to hit Eovaldi when he was in Boston, Eovaldi is working at a clearly higher level in 2025. On the other side, Carlos Rodon enters 5-3 with a 3.17 ERA and 0.99 WHIP but, more importantly, is 4-0 with a 1.72 ERA over his last six outings. Savio expects both veterans to work deep, then hand things to bullpens that have likewise been lights-out recently, reinforcing a low-scoring script. All of that led him to recommend the Under at ‑115 on Caesars.

Dylan Rockford said the sharpest angle in Rangers-Yankees is the first-five innings under. He trusts Jacob deGrom’s calmer, ‘dial-it-back’ approach that has produced a 1.43 ERA over his last three outings and a 3.22 lifetime ERA against New York. Opposing him is soft-tossing lefty Ryan Yarbrough, and Rockford noted Texas is now 0-8-3 to the F5 under against southpaws this season. The Yankees have cashed the first-five under 55 percent of the time overall, so both club trends line up. With deGrom pounding the zone while Yarbrough eats innings at 86 mph, Rockford expects a low-scoring start and will bet the F5 under as long as books open 4.5 or higher. He still leans Rangers on the full-game moneyline but called the total the stronger edge.

Rockford called Texas a mispriced underdog and made the Rangers –130 behind a rejuvenated Jacob deGrom, who hasn’t allowed more than two runs in six consecutive starts. New York is batting only .248 at Yankee Stadium, and Ryan Yarbrough’s soft-toss arsenal (two starts, eight relief outings) does little to scare a Rangers lineup that suddenly woke up after firing its hitting coach. Rockford trusts Texas’s overall pitching staff more than New York’s current mix, likes deGrom’s 3.22 career ERA versus the Yankees, and expects the Rangers to carry their recent form into the Bronx. He recommended taking the small plus price before the market flips.

Lindquist flagged the Rangers-Yankees total of 7.5 as his favorite under on the slate. He expects Jacob deGrom to be “pretty okay” even in the tougher Yankee Stadium environment, while soft-tossing lefty Ryan Yarbrough has quietly limited damage with a 22.5 % hard-hit rate and 3.46 xERA. Lindquist acknowledged Yarbrough’s skill set may regress but noted Texas stacks right-handers who profile better versus righties (he mentioned Adolis Garcia’s lefty woes and Wyatt Langford’s balanced splits), potentially muting the Rangers’ usual thump. With two pitchers capable of working deep and both bullpens rested after Tuesday, he leaned to the under at 7.5 runs.

The tout hammered the UNDER, labeling it a classic pitching duel. Jacob deGrom owns a 1.49 ERA with 40 Ks over his last six starts, while Ryan Yarbrough has yielded just three earned and nine hits across 13.2 innings since moving back into the rotation. Both clubs have been sputtering at the plate—Rangers three or fewer runs in three of four, Yankees three or fewer in three of five—and the UNDER has already cashed 51 times combined this season. Market’s low total is still justified in his eyes.

Soni crowned Wyatt Langford the top long-ball bet of the slate at +650 in the Bronx. The rookie owns a .250 average, nine homers, 20 RBI and an .819 OPS. Soni stressed how Yankee Stadium’s short right-center alley accentuates Langford’s pull-side power and plate patience. With New York’s probable starter allowing a 39% fly-ball rate, Soni believes Langford’s knack for punishing mistakes makes the juicy odds worth grabbing.

Cash Out Sports Picks took the Yankees money line even with Jacob deGrom on the other side. The logic: New York’s bats have been "seeing the ball well," the Rangers have scored three or fewer runs in three of their last four, and deGrom’s recent gems have frequently been squandered by Texas’ inconsistent offense. On the mound for New York, Ryan Yarbrough has allowed only three earned over his last 13.2 IP since rejoining the rotation, and the Yankee bullpen is rested. Given the evenly split 2024 series and home-field tilt, the tout trusts NY to squeeze out a close win.

In the same matchup, Peterson played Over 7.5 after projecting 8.2. Even with deGrom dealing, he expects Texas to contribute runs against Yarbrough’s inflated 4.95 FIP and homer issues, while Yankee Stadium’s short porches remain a boost to scoring. Both bullpens have been middle-of-the-pack, so a late run or two could push the game past a deflated total.

Peterson took Rangers +100 despite making them -132. Jacob deGrom is healthy and dominant again, allowing only five runs across his last five outings and carrying a 2.29 seasonal ERA. Yankees lefty Ryan Yarbrough owns a serviceable 3.70 ERA but an ugly 4.95 FIP, 1.5 HR/9 and 3.7 BB/9, suggesting trouble versus a Texas lineup that pounds southpaws. The pitching mismatch provides 30+ cents of value on the dog.

JD Bets locked in DJ LeMahieu over 0.5 hits despite the steep price. LeMahieu owns a .381 average (8-for-21) in the matchup and ranks first on JD’s hit list for the day. The Yankees’ veteran is barreling the ball at a 41% clip over his last week, and JD expects multiple plate appearances against rookie right-hander Will Warren plus a bottom-10 Rangers bullpen. He compared the wager to Tuesday’s Spencer Steer play—too much juice but an extremely high hit probability—and advised parlay shoppers to treat it as a safe anchor leg.

Chris Ruffolo said that even at a short +170, Aaron Judge belongs in HR parlays or straight tickets because his numbers versus southpaws are cartoonish. Judge is slashing .464 with six homers in just 28 at-bats against left-handed pitching this year—roughly one bomb every 4.6 ABs—and carries a .401 average with a 1.242 OPS overall. With Patrick Corbin on the hill and, in Ruffolo’s words, "really due to regress," the Yankees superstar gets as favorable a matchup as it gets for another long ball Tuesday.

Chris Ruffolo advised taking DJ LeMahieu to homer at a juicy +950. The case is almost entirely BvP: LeMahieu is 22-for-58 (.379) lifetime off left-hander Patrick Corbin with nine extra-base knocks, SIX of them homers, and only four strikeouts in those 58 plate appearances. Ruffolo added that he believes Corbin is "due for regression in a big way," further sweetening the spot. With LeMahieu freshly activated and filling in for Oswaldo Cabrera, Ruffolo sees plenty of value even as a long-shot ticket.

Although the Yankees strike out plenty versus lefties, Razzle advised against using Patrick Corbin. Corbin’s 4.5 K-prop is juiced to the UNDER, he’s a massive +320 to get the Win, and New York owns a gaudy .240 team ISO versus southpaws—driven by Aaron Judge’s .750 and Paul Goldschmidt’s .459 figures, with several other left-on-left bats showing power. Razzle admitted Corbin initially made his watch list out of sheer slate desperation but ultimately called it ‘too cute’ for DFS line-ups.

Razzle slotted Will Warren squarely into his core pitcher pool. Warren carries a 5.5 K-prop and a hefty –205 money-line on a modest 8.5 total in Yankee Stadium. The Rangers sit bottom-six in runs scored and have looked ‘real lackluster,’ giving Warren room to extend the three-start strikeout surge that has produced 18 punch-outs in his last 18 innings. With +140 to record a Win and DraftKings salary relief, Razzle likes Warren as a mid-tier GPP and cash option on a slate light on premium arms.

Sean Zerillo played the full-game under 9 because he believes Corbin’s new pitch mix plus two standout defenses can keep scoring in check. Since ditching his four-seamer 15 starts ago, Corbin owns a 3.98 ERA, 4.26 FIP, and 3.94 xFIP with a 13.7% K-BB%—all far better than his replacement-level numbers from 2021-23. Pitching+ rates him at 102 this season, the first time he has graded above 100. Texas ranks 1st in Defensive Runs Saved and 4th in Outs Above Average; New York sits 9th and 15th, with DRS crediting catcher and pitcher contributions that OAA misses. Zerillo concedes the risk of fly-balls leaving the yard but argues that Corbin’s cutter-heavy attack plus the Yankees’ solid run prevention behind rookie Will Warren make a 9-run total too high. He projects 7.7 runs and would bet the under to 8.5 (–110).

Collin Whitchurch laid out why he is backing the Yankees first-five-innings moneyline at anything better than –190. He noted that Patrick Corbin’s reinvention has masked several red flags that should be exposed in the Bronx. Corbin’s ground-ball rate has cratered to 37.5% (down roughly ten points from late-career Washington levels) while his hard-hit suppression looks fluky—just a 31.6% hard-hit rate and only eight barrels in 114 batted-ball events despite a career norm near 40%. Baseball Prospectus’ DRA sits 1.4 runs higher than his ERA, underscoring looming regression. That is a dangerous profile in Yankee Stadium, especially against a lineup that owns the league’s best wRC+ versus left-handed pitching. Whitchurch expects the Yankees’ right-handed power to punish Corbin’s rising fly-ball mix and is comfortable paying up to –190 on the F5 line to capture that edge before bullpens enter.

Steve Merrill said to bypass the steep -190 money-line and take New York at even money on the -1.5 run line. Merrill acknowledged Patrick Corbin’s shiny new 3.35 ERA but argued it is fool’s gold: the lefty’s strikeout rate remains pedestrian (29 K in 37 IP), his walk total is already 13, and his batted-ball profile shows no velocity bump. Corbin allowed 139 strikeouts in 174 innings last year and 124 in 180 the season prior, so Merrill expects the Yankees’ power bats to put the ball in play and find barrels. He noted that elite offenses such as the Dodgers and Yankees historically win by multiple runs—mirroring Colorado’s tendency to lose by margin—making the run line a logical way to ‘fade Corbin’ while avoiding big juice.

Boston is betting the Yankees first-five team total over 2.5 runs against Patrick Corbin. New York’s lineup grades top-10 against sinkers and #1 against cutters—two of Corbin’s three most-used offerings—over the past 30 days. The Bombers also crush sliders, giving them positive run-value against the entire Corbin arsenal. Although the Yankees have surpassed three runs in the opening five frames only once in their last five, Boston expects that to normalize given the pitch-type edge and Corbin’s 5.23 xERA. He also leans full-game over because Will Warren’s 2.86 ERA sits nearly two runs below his 4.60 xFIP and a volatile New York bullpen could allow a late Rangers surge.

Cash Out Sports Picks backed the Yankees on the money line, stressing several edges. Texas has scored three runs or fewer in three of its last four and ranks near the bottom of most offensive leaderboards. Patrick Corbin goes for the Rangers, and while his early-season ERA looks fine, his teams have dropped three of his last four starts and his strikeout rate remains pedestrian—an issue in homer-friendly Yankee Stadium. New York counters with Will Warren, who owns a 3.18 ERA in May and has allowed two earned or fewer in three straight. The Yankees are 8-3 over their last 11 and five of those eight wins came by at least two runs, highlighting their ability to pull away late. With New York surging and Texas sputtering at the plate, the tout expects the Bombers to "take care of business at home."

Boston singled out Cody Bellinger over 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs (or total bases) as his favorite Yankee prop. Bellinger owns a .390 average (7-for-18) with two RBIs and just a 15% K-rate in 20 career plate appearances versus Patrick Corbin. His 2025 splits versus left-handed pitching are elite—.298/.379/.571 with a 165 wRC+. Corbin, meanwhile, allows a .287 opponent average and .482 slug to lefty bats and ranks in the bottom 10% in hard-hit rate. Boston expects Bellinger to hit in the heart of an order that profiles perfectly against Corbin’s sinker/cutter/slider trio, forecasting multiple opportunities to clear the 1.5 benchmark.

Donnie Rightside spotlighted Austin Wells as a high-value HR/RBI prop and cheap DFS one-off against Patrick Corbin. Through just 17 plate appearances versus southpaws in the last 30 days, Wells owns a ridiculous .467 ISO, .469 wOBA and only an 11% strikeout rate, signaling real thump rather than small-sample noise. Corbin continues to be allergic to retiring left-handed hitters, carrying a 4.53 xFIP and allowing a .200+ ISO to lefties over the past month despite a misleading 3.18 ERA. With mild 62° temps, only a gentle seven-mph breeze blowing in, Rightside expects Will Warren to keep Texas in check while New York’s offense does its damage against the Nats’ veteran lefty. He labeled Wells "the sneaky bat late in the lineup" who best exploits Corbin’s lefty-on-lefty weakness and recommended laddering Wells props or penciling him in as a salary-saver in DFS builds.

Just A Bet Outside flagged DJ LeMahieu as a DFS/prop play against Patrick Corbin. LeMahieu has owned Corbin over 50 career at-bats—22-for-50 (.440) with six homers. Corbin’s surface numbers look better in 2024, but his 4.80 xERA says the regression monster is lurking, and Washington’s bullpen sits bottom-seven this month (5.20 ERA). With Yankee Stadium’s short porch and multiple late-inning cracks at that pen, Steven likes LeMahieu to eclipse 1.5 total bases and thinks a long-shot homer sprinkle is warranted.

Kenny g circled the Rangers-Yankees total of 9 as his preferred angle, calling it a sneaky under spot. Patrick Corbin has quietly posted a 3.35 ERA with only one clunker in his last five and draws a Yankees lineup that, outside of Judge’s video-game numbers and Bellinger’s grand-slam outburst, has scored four or fewer in seven of the past ten. Rookie Will Warren is settling in (two-start run: 12.1 IP, 2 ER) and hands the ball to a bullpen sporting a 3.37 ERA. Texas is unlikely to punish him – the Rangers rank 26th in runs and 27th in OBP and have topped five runs just twice in their last nine. Road/home splits also lean low: Texas is 11-9-1 to the under away from Globe Life, New York 13-11 to the under in the Bronx. Kenny added a mild sprinkle on the +155 Rangers given the pitching matchup, but emphasized the under as the strongest play.

Malcom Bamford planted his flag on the Yankees TEAM-TOTAL OVER rather than laying the hefty run-line price. He rattled off several data points: New York is batting .270 versus southpaws and sits 7-2 to the OVER against left-handed pitching; Patrick Corbin’s road ERA is a full run higher than his season mark and he is coughing up 1.43 HR/9—hardly ideal in Yankee Stadium’s short porch. Bamford added that rookie Will Warren has a 16-to-2 K-BB ratio over his last two starts, so he is comfortable isolating the Bronx bats and ignoring the side. In his view, the combination of a vulnerable lefty, a homer-friendly park and an offense that already leads MLB in OPS against lefties makes the Bombers’ team total the cleanest wager on the board.

Lonte Smith laid the run line with New York, citing the Yankees’ dominance of southpaws—.270 average and 6.4 runs per nine—and Texas’ inconsistent offense that has hit just .215 over its last 10 games. Patrick Corbin has been respectable overall (3.35 ERA) but his road ERA jumps by a full run, and Yankee Stadium is a brutal park for a left-hander who still gives up hard contact. Smith added that Will Warren rarely needs to be pristine because New York’s lineup provides ample run support, whereas the Rangers’ starters have excelled recently but can’t count on their bats to match the Yankees blow-for-blow. All signs, in his view, point to another multi-run Bronx win.

Bryce Hunt rolled out his biggest edge of the young season, firing a two-unit bet on Yankees First Five –0.5 against the Rangers. His in-house model projects New York up 5-0 after five innings, driven by Aaron Judge’s cartoonish numbers versus lefties—Hunt compared them to peak Barry Bonds. Texas counters with left-hander Patrick Corbin, whose declining velocity and swinging-strike rate have produced consecutive seasons of bottom-tier performance. Meanwhile rookie right-hander Will Warren brings an arsenal Hunt likened to Michael King: a four-seam fastball with noticeably improved induced vertical break that plays at the top of the zone plus a sweepy slider. Combine Warren’s upside with a Yankee lineup that owns one of MLB’s best wRC+ marks against southpaws and Hunt expects New York to jump in front early and stay there through five.

Garofolo highlighted that Dimers’ model gives Texas a 58.4% chance to cover the +1.5 run line against New York, while -118 odds imply just 54.1%. That 4.3% edge made it the second-strongest value on the board. The projection stems from simulation outputs favoring the Rangers’ bullpen depth and the Yankees’ league-average run production against lefties, leading to frequent one-run outcomes.

Savio recommended Yankees -1.5 at +110, citing brutal matchup data for Patrick Corbin and surging New York bats. Corbin may own a 3.35 ERA, but Savio pointed out his whiff rate is at a career-low and the Yankee roster has mauled him for a .305 average over 128 aggregate at-bats. Aaron Judge remains a constant threat, while Cody Bellinger has matched him in May with a .351 average, 1.053 OPS, four homers, and 12 RBIs, plus a .391 mark in 23 career ABs versus Corbin. Rookie Will Warren gets the ball for New York; after a rocky April (4.61 season ERA), he has settled in with a 3.18 ERA over his three May turns. Savio also stressed that Texas is ice-cold offensively, batting just .200 over the last week, so even a league-average performance from Warren should be enough for the Bronx lineup to win by multiple runs.