Boston endorsed Arizona at +105 and a lean to the OVER versus Kodai Senga and the Mets. He highlighted that Senga throws fastballs and cutters more than 70% of the time, pitches the Diamondbacks rank top-10 and top-5 against by run value. Merrill Kelly opposes and has been excellent, but Boston warned some regression is coming and pointed to New York’s slight bullpen edge as a reason to stay focused on Arizona’s offense instead of backing Kelly directly. The first two games of the series finished 5-4 and 5-1, both under double-digits, so he expects a breakout scoring environment as both lineups are too talented to stay quiet. His preferred play is Arizona money line but noted the full-game total—sitting 7.5 at recording—also looks attractive given the matchup-based hitting edge.

JD Bets fired on Pete Alonso to hit a home run at +150, citing Merrill Kelly’s ugly history against the Polar Bear. Alonso owns a .313 average, three long balls, and a 1.200 OPS in 16 prior at-bats versus Kelly, while the first baseman has been ‘raking’ during the Mets’ recent offensive surge (New York rates just behind the Dodgers as MLB’s hottest lineup on JD’s sheet). Although he also leaned Mets moneyline at –125, JD said the better value lies with Alonso’s homer prop given Kelly’s vulnerability and the desert’s hitter-friendly conditions.

Ryan Coleman rolled out a three-leg SGP built around the Mets offense and made Pete Alonso the centerpiece. He likes Alonso to record 3+ total bases at +175 because the first baseman has already taken Merrill Kelly deep three times and owns a .938 slugging percentage against him. Coleman stacked that prop with Mets team total over 4.5 runs and Mets -2.5, noting several supporting angles: (1) Juan Soto (16 prior ABs) and Jeff McNeil (two career homers) also profile well versus Kelly; (2) Arizona’s bullpen ranks 24th in MLB, giving New York nine innings of friendly pitching; (3) Kodai Senga brings a 1.38 ERA into the matchup and has yet to allow an extra-base hit to anyone in the Diamondbacks lineup, creating a lopsided run-prevention edge. After New York managed only one run the previous night, Coleman expects a bounce-back fireworks show and is comfortable laying the -2.5 run line while chasing plus odds on Alonso’s total bases.

Lindquist played the first-five under 4.5 (at +102 on FanDuel) in Mets–D’backs behind Kodai Senga’s unhittable Ghost Fork (.073 BA, 43.4% whiff, .119 xBA, .205 xSLG). Senga’s ability to miss bats limits crooked innings, and Merrill Kelly, though sitting on a 4.80 xERA, keeps surviving by sequencing six different pitches and living on the edges. Lindquist respects Arizona’s lineup too much to lay the Mets RL but believes both starters are undervalued in the market. He projected just 3.7 combined runs through five and would bet this down to 4 at –110.

Savio recommended Mets -1.5 at +122, anchored by Kodai Senga’s elite numbers (3-2, 1.38 ERA, 1.16 WHIP) after missing almost all of 2024. Senga has surrendered only three earned runs across his last 27.2 innings and just held Arizona to one run, though a high pitch count limited him to four frames. Merrill Kelly (3-1, 4.06 ERA) counters but has eclipsed 90 pitches only once in five starts, meaning Arizona’s bullpen—ranked near the bottom in ERA and blown saves—will be forced to cover multiple innings. Savio trusts New York’s dangerous lineup to pounce once Kelly exits, while Senga gives them a sizable edge early, making the run line attractive despite both clubs’ recent slumps.

Rockford played Under 9 (–110), projecting 8.5. Kodai Senga’s road starts are 3-0 to the under with a 1.38 ERA, and the Mets bullpen ranks top-10 in ERA. Merrill Kelly has allowed two or fewer earned in every outing except a single nine-run meltdown versus New York, giving him bounce-back appeal at Chase Field. Dylan fears the Snakes’ pen but prefers the first-five under 4.5 as well, expecting both starters to control the early innings before relief risk enters.

For the total, Cash Out Sports Picks recommended the UNDER, citing Senga’s dominance—zero or one run allowed in five of six starts—and his career mark of just two runs in 18 innings versus Arizona. Merrill Kelly owns a tidy 2.60 ERA at home, and the Mets have scored only 10 combined runs in the last three meetings. The Diamondbacks have cashed five unders in their last six. Given two reliable starters, a top-10 Mets bullpen, and recent low-scoring head-to-head games, the tout expects limited offense and an under ticket to cash.

Cash Out Sports Picks advised taking the Mets money line because Kodai Senga has a microscopic 1.38 ERA overall and a 2.00 ERA in five road starts. Over his last 32.2 innings he has allowed only five earned runs and just three total runs across his past five outings. New York can lean on a top-10 bullpen when Senga exits. Offensively the Mets rank top-5 in both wRC+ and wOBA over the last week, while the Diamondbacks sit in the bottom third of those same metrics. Arizona counters with Merrill Kelly and his 4.06 ERA and 12 walks, a profile the tout labeled “hittable.” With New York the more complete roster and owning an elite recent form edge, the tout expects a bounce-back win for the Mets.

Just A Bet Outside spotlighted Pete Alonso as a priority bat thanks to both form and history. Alonso is 5-for-16 lifetime off Merrill Kelly with four extra-base hits, three of them homers. Stephen added that Alonso’s 2024 plate skills are improved across the board—strike-out rate down, walk rate up, batting average up—making the Mets slugger, in his words, “a new guy this year.” Those factors combined make Alonso a strong DFS cornerstone and a candidate for home-run or total-bases markets.

For bettors hunting longer odds, Data Skrive circled Pete Alonso to hit a home run at +320 versus Merrill Kelly. Alonso’s .341/.463/.659 start features 9 homers and an MLB-best 87 total bases through 37 games; he is leaving the yard once every 15.2 plate appearances. Kelly’s sinker/curve mix neutralizes lefties but has historically surrendered a .448 SLG to right-handed power, and Chase Field’s summer roof-open conditions add carry to the pull side. With Alonso’s fly-ball rate sitting at 48% and his average exit velocity north of 93 mph, Data Skrive argued the market should be closer to +250, making +320 an exploitable edge for a one-unit homer sprinkle.

Data Skrive recommended Corbin Carroll OVER 1.5 total bases at +125. Carroll has racked up 90 TB in 36 games (2.5 per game) while slashing .288/.355/.588 and already tagging 10 home runs. He’ll face Kodai Senga, whose ghost-fork generates whiffs but also produces walks and the occasional loud contact. Carroll’s elite sprint speed (99th percentile last season) turns singles into doubles and keeps him live for this prop even if he doesn’t leave the yard. With the game in Chase Field’s hitter-friendly environment and no major weather concerns, Data Skrive believes the +125 price is misaligned with Carroll’s underlying 61% over rate on this number in 2025.

Cash Out Sports Picks pounced on Arizona as a short favorite because ace Zac Gallen rarely comes this cheap. Gallen just blanked the Mets for six innings (1 ER, 2 H) and owns a 3.41 career ERA with a .215 opposing average and 28 K in 107 AB versus New York. The Mets have been steadier but David Peterson’s .276 BAA signals traffic that Arizona’s 6th-ranked .777 OPS can exploit. With the D-backs underachieving yet still brimming with talent, the tout labeled them the sharp side in the desert.

Guy Boston advised grabbing the Mets at a plus price and pairing it with the over in the desert. He loves Zac Gallen’s stuff but noted the ace owns significantly worse splits at Chase Field this season—4.22 ERA and a .268 opponent average—while the Mets average just under five runs per game and hammer four-seam fastballs, the pitch Gallen throws most often. Gallen blanked New York in his last start, and Boston thinks the lineup is “due” for adjustments in the rematch. On the flip side, David Peterson’s sinker/slider/change mix has worked against Arizona, yet the Snakes saw him recently and could scrape four or more themselves. With both offenses capable and Gallen’s home volatility, Boston called Mets ML anything at +110 or better his primary play and liked the over 8 as a secondary angle.

It's The Final Round highlighted Pete Alonso’s small-sample dominance of Zac Gallen (3-for-6, .500) plus a scorching run in which Alonso has logged a hit in 14 of his last 16 games. With Gallen’s four-seam/fader mix playing into Alonso’s power stroke, the tout likes Alonso’s chances to clear his total-bases line or go deep.

Eric Lindquist bet Over 9 in Mets-D-backs with Chase Field’s roof confirmed open. He still respects Zac Gallen, but pointed out worrying batted-ball trends: 17.8° average launch angle, 90.9 mph exit velo, 10.8% walk rate, 10.6% barrel rate. On the Mets side, lefty David Peterson owns a .300 expected BA and 54.1% hard-hit rate, but only a middling K-rate. Arizona rarely swings and misses against southpaws (15.8% K-rate) and profiles for constant ball-in-play pressure. With both pitchers giving up lift and no humidity containment, Lindquist foresees traffic on the base paths and called Over 9 a clear value play.

JD Bets recommended taking the Mets at +100 in their desert matchup, explaining that New York’s hot bats line up perfectly against Ryne Nelson. His sheet is flashing green for the Mets’ offense, while Arizona has gone 4-6 and sits 25th in strikeout rate over the last ten. Historical splits sealed it for JD: Pete Alonso owns a .444 average with three homers in nine at-bats off Nelson, Juan Soto and Jeff McNeil each have two bombs in limited trips, and several other Mets post .400-plus averages. Conversely, JD noted a wall of red in the Diamondbacks’ hitter-vs-Griffin Canning data, suggesting Arizona will whiff plenty again. He considered Canning’s strikeout prop (4.5 Ks, plus money) but ultimately declared the straight moneyline the cleaner angle, summarizing, “Mets bats love this guy, give me the plus money.”

Power is fading New York on the road in Arizona, noting the Mets played two games Sunday in St. Louis and now face a D-backs lineup ranked 4th in MLB in runs per game. He is "not fully sold" on Mets starter Griffin Canning despite the club being 5-0 in his last five starts, calling this a tricky matchup in a bad scheduling spot for New York.

Tokyo Brandon recommended taking the Mets moneyline (-110 to even) in Arizona, arguing the market underrates the clear gap between the clubs. His model ranks the Mets third in current-form hitting while the Diamondbacks sit 20th. New York’s bullpen talent is better than its recent 20th ranking and still far superior to Arizona’s injury-depleted unit that Brandon slots 25th and calls “hemorrhaging runs.” On the mound, Ryan Nelson brings a 5.82 ERA despite a tidy 1.18 WHIP—Brandon notes the low walk rate masks a home-run problem, a bad mix against the power-heavy Mets. Conversely, Griffin Canning has blossomed with New York (4-1, 2.61 ERA, 1.39 WHIP), and Brandon expects at least five innings before turning things over to the stronger pen. With the D-backs only average at home and the Mets solid on the road, Brandon labels the Mets ML a bargain and even suggests a plus-money sprinkle on Canning to record the win for risk-tolerant bettors.

Derek Carty recommended betting Griffin Canning UNDER 4.5 strikeouts at –160. THE BAT X projects only 3.7 Ks (68% hit rate, +$16.83 EV) because: 1) Canning’s current 9.00 K/9 outpaces his true-talent 8.15 K/9 by 0.85, indicating luck that should regress, 2) Chase Field suppresses punch-outs (27th in MLB for Ks), and 3) Arizona’s lineup owns the league’s fourth-lowest whiff rate versus righties.

Zarpentine pegged Pete Alonso at +300 to leave the yard. Alonso has eight home runs already, and five have come on the road. He’s 4-for-9 against Diamondbacks starter Ryne Nelson with three of those hits clearing the fences, a HR rate that jumps off the page even with the small sample. Alonso also enters with eight hits over his last six games, indicating his timing is dialed in. If he gets three plate appearances versus Nelson before Arizona’s bullpen, Zarpentine believes the Polar Bear has a strong chance to connect on at least one mistake fastball.

Zarpentine advised grabbing Griffin Canning to record the win at +190. The Mets are 5-0 in Canning’s starts this season, and the right-hander personally owns four straight winning decisions while allowing one run or fewer in three consecutive outings. Arizona’s roster is just 7-for-40 (.175) against him lifetime, offering little evidence they can break that groove. With the Mets dropping four of five, the handicapper sees a “get-right spot” where New York’s bullpen is rested and likely to protect any lead Canning hands over after the sixth inning.

The tout paired his side play with an under. Canning (2.49 ERA, .253 BAA) and Nelson (0.91 WHIP) have both been effective, and each bullpen has posted sub-4 ERAs over the past two weeks. Unders have cashed in three of the last four meetings between these clubs, and fatigue from New York’s travel could suppress run production further.

Calling it one of the cleanest plays on the board, Shubham Soni recommended Pete Alonso at +290. Alonso is torching pitchers to a .344/.468/.656 line with eight homers and a 1.124 OPS through 35 games, and he now draws Ryne Nelson’s 5.82 ERA. The Polar Bear has already taken Nelson yard three times in just nine career plate appearances (4-for-9, .444 BA). Soni trusts the MVP-level form plus the pristine BvP data to keep Alonso’s power parade rolling.

Listed at +100 (50% implied), Arizona owns a 53% true win probability per Kingpin AI, resulting in +6% EV. Home field and an underrated roster tilt the matchup slightly toward the Snakes despite the Mets’ star power, making the even-money ticket attractive.

Cash Out Sports Picks urged bettors to grab Arizona on the moneyline. The Mets just played a Sunday double-header in St. Louis and immediately flew west, a classic flat spot that often leads to lineup rest. Arizona took two of three in New York last week and is more comfortable versus right-handed pitching at Chase Field. Griffin Canning has a sparkling 2.49 ERA for April but benefited from a 19-run outburst of support, while Ryan Nelson (0.91 WHIP in six relief appearances) is stretched out for his first start. The tout expects the travel tax and park shift to tilt the opener toward the D-backs.

The sim lands on Arizona 5-4 with value on D-backs ‑105 and Under 9.5. Griffin Canning has been lights-out (2.61 ERA) but Chase Field suppresses his elite curveball spin, and his 46% fly-ball rate can get him in trouble in a hitter’s park. Ryne Nelson’s bloated 5.82 ERA masks a 3.98 xFIP and 51% ground-ball rate, traits that play nicely against a Mets lineup that ranks 25th in hard-hit percentage on grounders. Both clubs boast top-7 bullpens in K-BB percentage, giving the under additional cushion.

Kenny G laid a small wager on the Mets –116 money-line, arguing Arizona’s pitching woes tilt the matchup. Ryne Nelson owns a 5.82 ERA and is transitioning back into the rotation after a bullpen stint, while Kenny believes Griffin Canning (the Mets’ scheduled starter) gives New York the clearly better arm. He highlighted the Diamondbacks’ 4.50 bullpen ERA (bottom-8 in MLB) and noted their offense, though eighth in runs, is only 14th in batting average and has been boom-or-bust. The Mets are 9-9 on the road and 20-14-1 to the under, numbers Kenny says reflect an ability to win low-scoring games. With the teams priced almost identically (Arizona –102), he made New York a mid-130s favorite on his own board and is comfortable backing them at the current discount.

Soni called Pete Alonso the "cleanest" HR prop at +290. The Polar Bear is on an MVP-caliber tear (.344/.468/.656, 1.124 OPS, 8 HR, 31 RBI through 35 games) and now sees Ryne Nelson, who owns a 5.82 ERA and 1.18 WHIP. Alonso’s personal BvP is ridiculous: 4-for-9 with 3 homers and a steal off Nelson. Combining premium form with a pitcher he’s already punished makes Alonso Soni’s top statistical slam-dunk among tonight’s long-ball wagers.

Just A Bet Outside highlighted Pete Alonso’s dominance of Ryne (Ryan) Nelson, noting the Mets slugger is 4-for-9 with all four hits going for extra bases – three of them homers. Nelson has surrendered a .508 slugging percentage to right-handed power bats this year, and Alonso’s 51% hard-hit rate over the last two weeks suggests the power stroke is locked in. With four separate Mets (Alonso, Lindor, Nimmo, McNeil) owning strong BvP lines, the tout outlined a favorable game stack and recommended Alonso HR or over 1.5 total-bases props at plus money.

Data Skrive noted Geraldo Perdomo’s four-hit explosion in his last game and still projects Arizona to upset the visiting Mets, taking the Diamondbacks ML at ‑109 while leaning Under 9.5. Perdomo’s table-setting from the top of the order boosts an offense that’s 18-16, and the under call signals confidence in Arizona pitching controlling New York. Stack Perdomo hit props with the Snakes ML for a correlated wager or ride him as a cheap DFS shortstop in cash builds.