Guy Boston recommended attacking the over—especially a Padres team‑total over—in Tigers‑Padres. His fade centers on Kyle Hart’s ugly profile: 6.48 ERA, 5.85 FIP, 5.41 xFIP, .273 average against and an alarming .423 BAA on the road. Hart struggles mightily versus right‑handed bats (.333 average), and San Diego projects seven righties in the lineup. The Padres offense is first in MLB in batting average (.281) and on‑base percentage and sits top‑seven in both wRC+ (119) and OPS versus right‑handed pitching. Although he acknowledged San Diego is dead‑last versus sinkers (Reese Olson’s primary pitch at 28 %), Guy doubts Olson repeats his Royals shutout because the Padres keep the ball on the ground—playing into Olson’s 1.44 GB/FB ratio but still translating to base hits given their contact profile. He sees both offenses getting opportunities across nine innings, prefers a full‑game over to mitigate two quality bullpens, and would isolate San Diego’s team‑total if forced to choose a side, avoiding the money‑line due to Hart’s volatility.

Data Skrive’s Wednesday MLB simulation spit out the Padres as its preferred side, taking San Diego at +132 on the moneyline in Detroit. The model is leaning Padres despite their under‑dog price because Bob Melvin’s club owns the best record in baseball at 17‑7 and is averaging 5.6 runs per game, while the Tigers, although a surprising 14‑10, have scored just 4.0 runs per contest. The computer also projects a pitcher‑friendly environment at Comerica Park and recommends Under 8.5, noting both rotations enter with a sub‑4.00 ERA and Detroit’s spacious outfield suppresses home‑run generation (league‑low 0.78 HR per game at home so far). Bettors are advised to grab the plus odds on the hotter lineup and pair it with the total lean to create a correlated play.

Todd Zola urged fantasy managers to avoid Jack Flaherty on Tuesday. The Tigers right‑hander owns a 10.3% walk rate and has yet to finish six innings in any of his four starts, driving up pitch counts and capping his fantasy value. The opponent compounds the concern: San Diego ranks among the most patient lineups in baseball and pairs that discipline with a low strikeout percentage. Zola sees too much early‑week downside to justify taking the risk in weekly formats.

Kenny G urged bettors to seek multiple unders in Padres‑Tigers. He pointed to Jack Flaherty’s 2.53 ERA and the Padres’ yet‑to‑be‑named starter being backed by the majors’ best bullpen (1.46 ERA). Detroit’s relief unit owns a 2.86 ERA, giving both clubs high‑end run prevention behind starters expected to work 5‑plus frames. Offenses are cooling: San Diego has produced 4, 3, 2, 4 and 4 runs its last five outings, while Detroit’s lineup—improved but still mid‑pack—faces a nasty bullpen when the lineup flips. Market trends favor the under as well: the Padres are 12‑10‑1 to the under and the Tigers 11‑10‑2, with Detroit 9‑2 at home where unders have cashed more often. With the full‑game total sitting at 7.5, Kenny likes the no‑run first inning and first‑five under as ancillary plays, calling offense “very much at a premium” thanks to two hot bullpens and an early‑season chill in Comerica Park.

Kenny G leaned toward Detroit on the moneyline (‑115) despite the Padres’ elite bullpen. His case: home‑road splits remain extreme league‑wide—only five MLB teams have winning road records, while 21 are above .500 at home, and Detroit fits that profile at 9‑2 in Comerica. Flaherty has regained form, logging a dazzling outing versus the Yankees and sporting a 2.53 ERA overall, whereas San Diego arrives banged up and just 4‑6 away from Petco Park. Detroit’s lineup has shown real pop—scoring 6, 3, 7 and 6 runs its last four—with Kerry Carpenter and Spencer Torkelson hot. Combo the Tigers’ quietly strong bullpen (2.86 ERA) with a favorable price, and Kenny said Detroit is the only side he is willing to play.

Kyle Purviance likes Nick Pivetta to go over his strikeout prop (expects 6.5 line, comfortable at plus money for 7+). Pivetta leans on a four‑seam/curve mix—nearly 80% of his pitches—and Detroit’s lineup is among the worst at handling four‑seam fastballs: every projected Tiger except Spencer Torkelson carries a whiff rate above 25% versus heaters, with Javier Baez and Colt Keith above 40%. Purviance highlighted Tigers hitters’ put‑away rates (many over 30%) and noted Detroit’s 9.6 K per game average, third‑worst in MLB. Given Pivetta’s 28% strikeout rate dating back to last season and a spacious Comerica Park that lets him challenge hitters upstairs, Kyle projects seven to nine punch‑outs in six innings and will play the over.

Kyle Purviance plans to take Jack Flaherty under on strikeouts if books open at 5.5 or higher. He argues that San Diego’s projected lineup is loaded with right‑handed bats who crush fastballs and sliders—the two pitches Flaherty throws nearly 75% of the time—and that several hitters (Tatis, Machado, Cronenworth, Bogarts) carry sub‑20% strikeout rates against those offerings. Purviance added that Detroit has allowed Flaherty to work deep only when his pitch count is low; if the Padres grind out early counts, Flaherty could exit before the sixth, capping his K ceiling. Anything north of 5 K’s is ‘too rich’ given San Diego’s contact profile and their top‑five chase‑rate discipline in April.

Brian Howard hammered Fernando Tatis Jr. props against Jack Flaherty, recommending total bases, RBI, and home‑run ladders. In 13 career plate appearances versus Flaherty, Tatis is 7‑for‑10 with two bombs, four doubles, two walks, and only one strikeout (.700 AVG, 1.700 SLG). Digging deeper, Howard matched Flaherty’s current pitch mix—43.8% four‑seam, 29.6% slider, 20.4% curve—against Tatis’ 2025 run values: +4 on fastballs (xBA .368, 61.5% hard‑hit, K‑rate <10%), +5 on sliders (xBA .387, 50% hard‑hit), and even the ‘worst’ pitch, the curve, shows a +1 run value and .303 xBA. Because Flaherty leans on a four‑seamer nearly half the time, Howard expects Tatis to see multiple hittable heaters and at least one hanging slider, making Tatis a prime target for 2+ total bases or an RBI at plus money in DFS and betting markets.

It's The Final Round said Fernando Tatis Jr. is a priority bet to record a hit – and very likely a home run – against Jack Flaherty. The capper pointed to Flaherty’s 54 % four‑seam usage and noted Tatis is annihilating four‑seamers this season (.455 AVG, 10‑for‑22 with 3 HR). He also owns a .300 AVG with 2 HR off sliders, the Tigers right‑hander’s No. 2 pitch. Historically this matchup tilts even harder: Tatis is 5‑for‑7 with 2 bombs off Flaherty (.714 AVG). Tatis has logged a hit in 18 of 21 games (10 multi‑hit), so the tout expects the Padres star to stay hot and make every prop list, including HR markets.

Cash Out Sports Picks backed Detroit, citing massive splits for both starters. Padres righty Nick Pivetta owns a 9.00 road ERA and .375 opponent average in his lone away start, whereas Jack Flaherty sports a 0.82 ERA with a .154 BAA through 11 Comerica Park innings. Detroit’s offense is stronger at home (.776 OPS, 5.1 R/G) than San Diego’s road unit (.736 OPS, 3.33 R/G). The Padres are also playing on short rest after a Sunday night game in Houston, while Detroit is 8‑2 at home and second‑best in AL money‑line profit. All signs point to the Tigers maintaining early‑season dominance in their park.

Martin grabbed San Diego at even money, citing Nick Pavetta’s sizzling form and multiple matchup edges. Pavetta owns a sub‑2.00 ERA with a dominant 24‑to‑5 strikeout‑to‑walk ledger. The Padres lineup is swinging it well while Detroit sits bottom‑10 in OPS over the last week. Martin also stressed San Diego’s No. 1 ranked bullpen to protect a late lead. With both clubs in first place, he still prefers Pavetta over Jack Flaherty and likes the Friars as a short road dog, listing Pavetta to lock in the wager.

Peterson laid out why Detroit is worth a wager at -109 (he made it -133). Jack Flaherty has rediscovered form in Motown with a 2.88 ERA and 3.15 FIP over two seasons, while Nick Pivetta’s 1.57 ERA in his first four Padres starts is cursed by a suddenly thin lineup: Jackson Merrill is on the IL and Luis Arraez exited Sunday Night Baseball hurt. With run‑support questions for San Diego and a confident Flaherty, Peterson called the Tigers the value side.

Michael Savio said Nick Pivetta’s early‑season form makes the Padres a value moneyline play at -105. Pivetta sits at 3‑1 with a 1.57 ERA and microscopic 0.83 WHIP, and he has given up only one run across 13 innings in his last two outings. Savio reminded readers that Pivetta already handled Comerica Park last year (2 ER in 6 IP) and believes the Tigers will again strand traffic. On the other side, Jack Flaherty (1‑1, 2.53 ERA) finally looked human versus Milwaukee, surrendering 3 ER in 4.2 frames; San Diego’s current roster owns a .298 average off Flaherty. With Detroit’s lineup still bottom‑tier in run production, Savio argued the pitching mismatch plus San Diego’s historical success against Flaherty justifies riding the Padres ML.

Bamford agreed the game should be tight but prefers San Diego −105 on the moneyline. He sees the starting matchup (Pivetta vs Flaherty) as a wash and views the lineups as comparable in current form. His tie‑breaker is the Padres’ superior bullpen depth and recent high‑leverage performance, giving them the best chance to steal a close game that likely comes down to the final frames.

Reichel likes the under 7.5 in Padres‑Tigers. He noted Nick Pivetta’s 3‑1 record with a 1.57 ERA and 0.83 WHIP plus consistent six‑inning length. Jack Flaherty has been solid despite facing the Yankees and Dodgers, giving Detroit quality innings. Detroit’s offense is middling and San Diego’s bats cool off dramatically away from Petco (4‑5 road record vs 12‑1 at home). Reichel projects a 3‑2 type final, with both starters working deep and neither lineup suited to a slugfest in pitcher‑friendly Comerica Park.

Donnie Rightside recommended a Detroit team‑total over or Tigers hitter props because Randy Vasquez’s sparkling 1.74 ERA is fool’s gold. His 6.31 xFIP is the worst on Monday’s card—low strikeout rate, inflated walk rate and tons of fly balls scream imminent regression. Cooler Midwest temps after a Sunday‑night game in Houston add an extra hurdle for the traveling Padres. DRS admitted Carter Montero’s miniscule 2.45 xFIP stems from only five innings but still prefers the home side, especially since San Diego’s lineup outside of Tatis, Machado, Cronenworth and Bogaerts has under‑performed versus right‑handed pitching. The suggestion: bet Detroit’s offense to pop before Vasquez’s luck runs out.

In the same matchup, Kenny G recommended a secondary bet on the UNDER 8.5 runs. His logic: both bullpens rank top‑5 (Padres 1.57 ERA, Tigers 3.04), Randy Vasquez has allowed two or fewer earned in every outing, and Keider Montero, while lit up in Milwaukee, owns legit strikeout stuff (8 K in 5 IP) that could bounce back against a Padres lineup traveling east. He expects any Montero wobble to be contained by Detroit’s relief corps, while Vasquez and the San Diego ‘pen suppress a Tigers offense that is only 18th in slugging. Given the strong pens and a total inflated by Montero’s ugly debut, Kenny sees plenty of wiggle room for an under ticket to cash.

Kenny G called San Diego +110 his favorite side on the board. Rookie right‑hander Randy Vasquez owns a sparkling 1.74 ERA and has yet to allow more than two earned in any start, while the Padres bullpen boasts a mind‑boggling 1.57 ERA, best in MLB. Offensively, Fernando Tatis Jr. is carrying a .360 AVG with eight bombs and 16 RBI, helping the club rank 1st in batting average and OBP despite a quiet series in Houston. Detroit counters with Keider Montero, fresh off an eight‑hit, three‑homer, five‑run thrashing in Milwaukee that ballooned his ERA to 9.00. The Tigers ‘pen has been strong (3.04 ERA, 5th), but Kenny doubts their 10th‑ranked run output will persist given an 18th‑place slugging percentage and questions about lineup depth beyond Spencer Torkelson and Kerry Carpenter. Detroit is 8‑2 at home, yet that came against Yankees and White Sox teams Kenny views as soft spots. With a decisive starting‑pitcher edge, elite bullpen and a lineup that should rebound, he is eager to take the plus money on San Diego.

Cash Out Sports Picks stayed on the Tigers, playing Detroit on the money line even with rookie right‑hander Keider (spelled "Cater" in the transcript) Montero set to start. The tout admitted Montero looked shaky in his 2025 debut and battled inconsistency last season, but argued Detroit’s advantage comes elsewhere. Both bullpens are rolling—San Diego owns a 2.00 ERA and 3.37 FIP this month while Detroit sits at 2.25 ERA and 3.64 FIP—so the matchup likely swings before the late innings. Randy Vasquez’s sparkling ERA is labeled misleading because he has already issued 14 walks, a red flag the tout expects to bite him against a Detroit lineup that has been “clicking early this season” with contributions top to bottom. With Vasquez’s control woes, Detroit’s deeper order, and home‑field comfort, Cash Out Sports Picks recommended backing the Tigers to win the series opener.

In the same breakdown, Cash Out Sports Picks also grabbed the full‑game over, projecting a "slug fest" despite the strong bullpen numbers. The handicap centers on both starting pitchers: Keider Montero’s lone 2025 outing offered little confidence after an erratic 2024, and Vasquez may be living on borrowed time thanks to 14 free passes that inflate his underlying metrics. The tout expects those walks to translate into traffic and crooked innings, especially against a Detroit offense producing from every spot in the order. Because neither starter is likely to work deep, and because any early damage forces managers to the bullpen sooner, Cash Out Sports Picks forecasted enough scoring to clear the posted total and made the over the second official wager on the matchup.

Cash Out Sports Picks took the Tigers money line at Comerica. Jack Flaherty has surrendered only one run across two home starts, including 5.1 scoreless with nine K versus the Yankees on April 9. While Fernando Tatis Jr. and the Padres have decent historical success against Flaherty, the tout notes San Diego’s difficult travel spot—arriving in Detroit after a late game in Houston. Detroit’s bullpen owns a 2.25 ERA this month, nearly matching San Diego’s strong 2.00 mark, so late‑inning relief is not a concern. Randy Vasquez is still unproven for the Padres, and with potential fatigue plus Detroit’s home form, the tout prefers the rested Tigers to grab the series opener.

Dana Lane backed the Tigers on the run line at +158, laying 1.5 runs against San Diego. He cited multiple angles: Detroit is 8‑2 at Comerica Park (fourth‑best ROI in MLB at +3.76 units) while San Diego is only 4‑5 on the road. Wind is forecast at 15‑18 mph blowing right‑to‑left, a setup Lane believes suppresses Petco‑style opposite‑field power and favors Detroit’s pull‑heavy lineup. Market movement also supports the pick—early ‘sharp’ money pushed the Tigers from –120 to –130 despite 76 % of public tickets on the Padres. Detroit is 9‑3‑2 to the under in its last 14, showing the pitching staff can keep games close, and starter Cater Montero’s ugly 9.00 ERA comes from one blow‑up inning; underlying xFIP is 3.91. The Padres have won 9 of 13 but Lane pointed out they’re just 12‑9‑1 to the under with six of their last eight cashing unders, suggesting limited margin for a road favorite to cover. With Detroit already +2.90 units on the season and San Diego’s bullpen ranking 24th in WHIP, Lane feels the plus‑money run‑line is the best way to attack this inter‑league matchup.

It's The Final Round said Fernando Tatis Jr. is his favorite "get‑right" play for Monday because Kider Montero’s three‑pitch arsenal lines up perfectly with what Tatis hammers. Against sinkers (38 % usage) Tatis owns a .636 average this season, 7‑for‑11 with authority contact. He is hitting .500 (2‑for‑4) off sliders and .455 with three homers on four‑seamers (10‑for‑22). The host emphasized that Montero’s own samples are tiny but ugly – .500 allowed on sinkers, .250 on four‑seamers – so the matchup tilts heavily toward the hitter. Tatis has at least one hit in 18 of his last 21 games, giving bettors a hot hand plus the pitch‑type edge. The tout is targeting Tatis props such as over 1.5 total bases or simply to record a hit, and likes him in DFS cash builds for the slate.

The model projected a 5‑4 final in Detroit and recommended taking Over 8 runs. Data Skrive highlighted that each club is scoring just over four runs per game this season (Tigers 4.1, Padres 4.2) and both middle‑of‑the‑order stars are scorching: Spencer Torkelson is hitting .353 with 2 HR and 9 RBI in his last five, while Fernando Tatis Jr. owns an MLB‑best .358 average with 6 HR in his last 10. Even with both pitching staffs throwing well of late, the tout expects the hot bats plus Comerica’s early‑season carry to push the combined total past the modest 8‑run line.

Data Skrive pegged Monday’s matchup as a pure coin‑flip, giving both the Tigers and Padres a 50% win probability but hanging Detroit at –131 and San Diego at +111. The tout noted that the Padres have quietly been the hotter club, posting a 7‑3 record and a sparkling 1.82 staff ERA over their last 10 while Fernando Tatis Jr. rides a nine‑game hitting streak (.333, 6 HR in that span). Detroit has been solid (6‑4 last 10) but far less profitable as a favorite. With equal win odds yet + odds attached to San Diego, Data Skrive advised grabbing the Padres moneyline for the built‑in value.

Despite being on the road, the computer makes San Diego a 5‑4 favorite, turning the Padres’ +115 moneyline into an auto‑play. Randy Vasquez (1.74 ERA) squares off with Tigers rookie Keider Montero, who has been rocked for a 9.00 ERA in his first two starts. Detroit is 13‑9 but ranks 28th in wRC+ versus right‑handed pitching, while the 16‑6 Padres are top‑5 in OBP. Comerica Park’s big gaps plus Montero’s walk issues push the model toward the Over 8.5 as well.

Nick Slade said Dimers’ machine‑learning model ran 10,000 simulations of Padres–Tigers and landed on Detroit as the straight‑up winner 53% of the time. Despite rookie Keider Montero’s ugly 0‑1 record and 9.00 ERA squaring off against Randy Vasquez’s 1.74 ERA, the Tigers still grade out as the more likely side because the model folds in park factors at Comerica, full‑season offensive metrics, bullpen freshness and defensive efficiency ratings. With books dealing Detroit around ‑130, the model shows a sliver of value on the Tigers moneyline relative to the implied 56.5% break‑even probability.

Slade highlighted that the model’s largest discrepancy in Monday’s game is on San Diego +1.5 runs. The simulations show the Padres covering the run line 64% of the time, well above the ‑188 price that implies only 65% and comfortably beating the model’s internal 59% breakeven. The projection factors in Vasquez’s 27% strikeout rate, Detroit’s bottom‑five wRC+ versus right‑handed pitching, and the Tigers’ bullpen carrying the 24th‑ranked xFIP over the last two weeks. Because Detroit is favored but projected to win a close one, the +1.5 cushion on San Diego grades out as Dimers’ top betting edge for the matchup.

The same Data Skrive model forecasts nine total runs (Padres 5, Tigers 4), making the Over 8 a recommended play. Recent offensive trends support the call: Detroit averages 4.1 runs while San Diego sits at 4.2 over their last 10 games, combining for 8.3. Spencer Torkelson enters with a .353 average, two homers and nine RBI in his last five, and Fernando Tatis Jr. is riding a nine‑game hitting streak with six long balls during that stretch. Both lineups have shown power—Tigers with six team HR and Padres with 11 over the past 10—while Comerica Park is expected to play neutral with mild 10‑mph out‑to‑left winds at first pitch. Although both pitching staffs have been stingy (Tigers 2.66 ERA, Padres 1.82 ERA in that span), the model still anticipates enough contact and late‑inning bullpen regression to clear the number.

Data Skrive projected a 5‑4 Padres victory despite San Diego opening at +111 on the moneyline. Their model gives each club a 50% win probability, meaning the Padres offer a slight edge versus the implied 47.4% chance baked into the odds. San Diego has thrived in the underdog role, winning 5 of 9 games when priced as dogs and 3 of 6 at +111 or longer. Detroit, meanwhile, has been favored 10 times and is 7‑3 overall, but only 3‑2 as a recent favorite across its last 10 contests. The preview also highlighted the current form of Fernando Tatis Jr. (nine‑game hit streak, six HR in his last 10) and a Padres staff that owns a 1.82 team ERA over the past 10 outings. With Randy Vasquez on the mound and the offense averaging 4.2 runs per game, Data Skrive advised siding with San Diego at plus money.

Zola urged fantasy managers to bench Jack Flaherty on Monday. Flaherty’s 10.3% walk rate has kept him from recording six full innings in any of his four starts, inflating pitch counts and capping his win potential. He now faces a patient Padres offense that owns one of MLB’s lowest strikeout rates, meaning fewer free whiffs to offset the walks. Early‑week risk isn’t worth the potential ratios hit, especially in head‑to‑head leagues.

Peterson grabbed San Diego +120 even though his handicap made the Friars -111. He trusts a Padres bullpen that entered Sunday with a league‑best 1.65 ERA to protect Randy Vasquez, whose 1.74 ERA masks ugly peripherals (6.1 BB/9, 3.5 K/9). Detroit’s Keider Montero allowed 1.7 HR/9 last year and surrendered three more bombs in his 2025 debut, so Peterson expects the Tigers’ suspect arm to crack first.

Despite shaky walk and strikeout numbers for both starters, Peterson still likes Under 8.5 (projected 8.3). His case leans on the Padres’ elite bullpen and Detroit’s below‑average lineup that scored just 3.6 runs per game last season. Montero’s homer issues raise volatility, but with Comerica’s deep alleys and night‑game temps in the mid‑50s, he expects fly balls to die on the warning track more often than not.

Sean Zerillo bet Under 8.5 runs (playable to 8 at -105) for Padres‑Tigers. He downgraded San Diego’s lineup from a projected 114 wRC+ to 102 because Luis Arraez is likely out and Jackson Merrill, Jake Cronenworth and Jason Heyward are already sidelined. Zerillo noted the historical "Sunday Night Baseball hangover"—teams traveling overnight after the ESPN game average 0.42 fewer runs—and the Padres flew from Houston while Detroit stayed home. Comerica Park already suppresses scoring by roughly 6%, and Monday calls for a 15‑20 mph cross‑breeze with real‑feel temps in the low‑50s. While neither starter (Randy Vasquez vs Keider Montero) is elite, both flash above‑average breaking stuff (Vasquez slider 116 Stuff+, Montero sinker 110, slider 104). Zerillo’s model projects 7.58 runs, giving enough edge to fire on the under.