Despite Detroit’s recent offensive outbursts, Data Skrive projected a modest 4-3 final score and advised betting Under 7.5 (–120). The model expects Comerica Park and early-afternoon conditions to suppress power and leans on pitching form: Tigers hurlers boast a 3.40 ERA and 9.5 K/9 over the last 10 games, while the scuffling Rangers lineup has produced only 3.2 runs per outing and eight total homers in that window. Texas is 4-6 to the under across its past 10, and Detroit’s bullpen has allowed fewer than two runs in six of its last eight appearances. With both staffs in better shape than the Rangers’ offense, Data Skrive sees value backing the under at the current 7.5 total.

Data Skrive projected Detroit to win 4-3 and assigned the Tigers a 60% victory probability, making the listed –115 moneyline an actionable edge over the implied 53.5% break-even rate. Their model leans on several trends: Detroit is 18-4 this season when priced –115 or shorter and 7-1 in its last eight games as a moneyline favorite. The club has caught fire offensively, averaging 7.5 runs with 18 homers over the past 10 contests, while its pitching staff owns a 3.40 ERA and 9.5 K/9 in that same span. Texas, by contrast, is just 7-15 as an underdog (0-5 last five tries) and is slumping to 3.2 runs per game with an 8-game stretch of undersized production. With the Rangers’ lineup cold and the Tigers excelling in both run prevention and power, Data Skrive recommended laying the short price on Detroit.

Morgan called Reese Olson a tournament gem at $9,000. The righty owns a 2.92 FIP through the first quarter of 2025, mirroring last year’s 3.16 mark, so the underlying skills look legit. He gets a dream matchup against a Rangers lineup that sits bottom-three in runs scored, a stark fall-off from last season’s World Series run. With Tarik Skubal hogging most of Detroit’s spotlight, Morgan believes Olson will be overlooked and can provide ace-level production at mid-tier ownership.

Along with his Tigers side, Peterson bet Over 7 (made the total 7.9). The handicap leans on Detroit’s 5.4 runs per game pace and a Texas lineup that just welcomed back Seager and Carter from the IL. Even though both starters own sub-3.10 ERAs, Peterson expects the added offensive firepower plus warm Midwest weather to push the run total above the key number of seven.

Peterson laid Tigers -108 (projected -125) despite the return of Evan Carter and Corey Seager to Texas. Detroit’s offense sits second in the AL at 5.4 runs per game and draws Nathan Eovaldi on short rest. Reese Olson has been nails for the Tigers with a 3.03 ERA, 2.93 FIP and only one homer allowed in 38.2 innings. Peterson trusts Detroit’s deeper lineup and Olson’s ground-ball profile to prevail.

Cash Out Sports Picks doubled down on a low-scoring script, recommending the under for Detroit–Texas. Nathan Eovaldi has cashed the under in five consecutive starts and sports a microscopic 2 ER across his last 18 innings. Olson brings 13 straight scoreless innings from late April and has surrendered only five runs in his last three road outings. The Rangers trend under overall (6-4 last ten) and have plated a single run or fewer in six of those contests. Detroit’s pitching has been even stingier—allowing four runs or fewer in seven of ten, going 7-3 to the under in that stretch. Head-to-head, these clubs have split the total 5-5 over the last ten meetings, but with two in-form starters and both bullpens rested after Saturday’s blowout, the tout expects another pitchers’ duel that stays beneath the posted number.

Cash Out Sports Picks backed the Detroit Tigers on the money line for Sunday’s series finale at Comerica Park. The tout emphasized Detroit’s sparkling 14-4 home record and noted Texas has struggled away from Arlington. He trusts starter Reese Olson, who allowed zero earned runs over 13 innings in his two starts prior to a serviceable outing against Houston (3 ER in 5.2 IP). Detroit’s lineup, while quiet on Saturday, owns the confidence of a division leader and has split the first two games of the set. Meanwhile Nathan Eovaldi has been sharp (2 ER across his last 18 frames), but the Rangers’ offense is built more on pitching and defense and has scored one run or fewer in six of its last ten. With home-field advantage, recent pitching form, and Texas’ road woes, the tout played the Tigers straight up.

Brad Francis said to grab the Tigers on the money-line against Texas. His case hinged on three angles: 1) the Rangers have dropped seven straight when priced as underdogs, signaling the market still overrates them; 2) Reese Olson has quietly held opponents in check and matches Jon Gray pitch-for-pitch, giving Detroit no mound disadvantage; 3) Detroit has been a 'juggernaut at home' with a noticeably better record than Texas. Francis expects the Tigers to bounce back from Saturday’s loss and extend his personal winning streak to eight days.

Guy Boston’s favorite wager in Tigers-Rangers is the first-five innings under 4.5 (–110). He acknowledged Jacob deGrom’s name drives Texas steam but argued both starters are in control spots. DeGrom owns a ridiculous 55.2% strike-out rate and .101 expected batting average against the current Tigers roster (29 PA sample), while Jack Flaherty has held this Rangers group to a .225 xBA and .292 xwOBA over 75 plate appearances by leaning on his slider/curve—two pitches Texas grades bottom-8 in run value against. Detroit crushes heaters, but deGrom’s command and change-of-speed sequence should mitigate that edge. Yesterday’s 2-1 finish showed how Comerica’s heavy night air can suppress scoring, and with both bullpens avoided until the sixth, Boston prefers the cleaner F5 under instead of a full-game play. He did mention a sprinkle on Detroit ML as a home dog but kept it off his official card.

Guy Boston recommended betting Wyatt Langford under 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs at even money. The rookie enters 3-for-21 over the past week and now faces Jack Flaherty, whose slider and curveball represent 46% of his pitch mix—the exact offerings Langford has produced a sub-.200 xBA against in his first month. Boston added that Comerica’s spacious gaps reduce the extra-base hit upside Langford needs to beat this prop, and Detroit’s bullpen has posted a 2.91 ERA over the last two weeks, further squeezing late-game opportunities. He labeled the plus-100 price a clear value play on the fade.

Tokyo Brandon said the Tigers are a plus-money bet because every phase except the very top of the rotation tilts their way. Detroit is 14-3 at home and currently owns his #1 batting grade, hammering opposing pitching while the slumping Rangers bats sit 20th. In the bullpen model, Detroit ranks 8th versus Texas at 20th, giving the Tigers a clear late-inning edge. Starting pitching is the lone area where Texas has a small advantage: Jacob deGrom is Brandon’s #5 arm out of 200 starters, while Jack Flaherty ranks #11. However, Flaherty’s ball-to-strike ratio is even better than deGrom’s, and Brandon believes he can limit the Rangers to one run through five innings. With Texas unlikely to provide run support and its shaky bullpen waiting, Brandon projected a tight 1-0 or 2-0 game through five that Detroit’s hot bats break open late. He recommended taking Detroit on the moneyline at plus odds.

JD Bets said he is done fading Patrick Corbin after watching the veteran left-hander dominate since joining Texas. Corbin’s surface numbers look nothing like the version that imploded in Washington: he just threw what JD called a “Cy Young–level gem,” and his season ERA now sits in the low-twos with a WHIP under 1.10. The tout reminded listeners that Corbin was an automatic fade the last few seasons with the Nationals but believes the new pitching-development staff in Arlington has unlocked a sharper slider and better fastball command. Until Corbin shows real regression, JD advised avoiding strikeout unders, earned-run overs, or stacking hitters against him in DFS, and instead looking to back Texas in his starts.

Calling it his "sharp play of the day," Bettor Mark is on UNDER 7.5 in Rangers-Tigers. He trusts his numbers that project a low-scoring duel between Jacob deGrom—"great bounce-back year"—and Jack Flaherty, whom he expects to overperform his surface metrics at Comerica. Mark added that Texas routinely scores less on the road, and he anticipates public money inflating the over because totals in the 6–7 range often attract casual bettors. The blueprint he outlined is a 2-1 or 3-0 type game; if it shoots out, he’ll "tip the cap," but the official bet is the under.

Halterman called Josh Smith the perfect end-of-roster stabilizer. Despite a bland profile, Smith logged 592 PA last year as a Swiss-army knife and already sits fourth on the Rangers in plate appearances, recently jumping to the leadoff spot. He’s batting .323 (.392 BABIP) with three homers and four steals, but Statcast gives him a .288 xBA, suggesting the average won’t crater. Eligible at MI, CI, and OF, Smith offers everyday at-bats, a useful AVG floor, and non-zero power and speed – an undervalued asset in season-long leagues that use deep lineups.

Kenny G also leaned to the under 7.5, forecasting a pitchers’ duel between Jacob deGrom (2.61 ERA, one run over 5 IP vs SEA last start) and Jack Flaherty, whose 3.79 ERA is backed by an 8-K outing against the Angels. Both clubs trend low-scoring: Texas is 10-8 to the under on the road and Detroit 10-4-2 to the under at Comerica. With the Tigers’ shutdown pen plus a Rangers offense sitting 28th in runs, he doubts either side pushes the total past seven.

Kenny G said Detroit is worth a play at -110 because the bullpen gap is enormous and the offenses are headed in opposite directions. The Tigers’ relievers own an MLB-best 2.39 ERA while the Rangers sit at 4.00. Detroit’s bats are humming—2, 11, 10 and 8 runs the past four, ranking 2nd in runs and 1st in average—whereas Texas is 28th in runs and 25th in average, putting up just 1, 0, 4, 6 and 8 during their slide. Although Jacob deGrom has looked dominant over his last four outings (2.61 ERA overall), Kenny expects Jack Flaherty to keep Detroit in it long enough for the elite pen to take over. A 13-3 home record versus Texas’ 6-12 road mark sealed the call.

Scott Reichel felt the market overreacted to Jacob deGrom’s name value, calling Detroit the "wrong" underdog at +105. The Tigers are 13-3 at Comerica and 25-13 overall, while Texas sits below .500 and 6-12 away from Arlington despite the ace on the hill. DeGrom has been sharp (2.61 ERA, 34% K-rate) but receives little run support—Rangers average just 2.4 runs in his starts. Jack Flaherty’s 7.09 ERA masks a 3.30 xERA; his strikeout minus walk rate (21%) actually tops deGrom’s early-season mark. Reichel also leaned first-five Under 4.5, echoing co-host Lonte Smith, because neither offense is clicking (Texas fired its hitting coach this week and promptly scored zero in its most recent game). His numbers make Detroit –120, so anything at plus money is a must-bet.

Cash Out Sports Picks recommended the full-game under, pointing to two aces and a frigid Texas offense. The Rangers are averaging just 3.24 runs per game (3.33 over their last three) and batting .233 versus righties. They have cashed the under in two of three and in head-to-head the total has gone under in two of the last three. DeGrom is regaining form (1.07 WHIP across 16.1 recent innings) and Flaherty has surrendered only three runs in three Comerica starts. Detroit leans under at home (4-11-2). With both starters dealing, Comerica’s spacious dimensions, and Texas’ slump, the tout projected a quiet scoreboard.

Cash Out Sports Picks backed the Tigers on the money line, stressing Detroit’s massive form edge and park factors. Detroit is 14-3 at Comerica, has won eight of ten overall, and just held Texas to two runs Friday behind another Tarik Skubal gem. Saturday they hand the ball to Jack Flaherty, who owns a 1.59 ERA, 0.17 opponents’ average, and 21 strikeouts through 17 home innings while the bullpen sits third in baseball with a 2.60 ERA. Conversely, Texas has scored only five total runs in its last five contests, has been held to two or fewer in 10 of 14, and its relief corps carries a 4.03 ERA. Jacob deGrom still scares books, but the Rangers’ bats and pen keep letting him down. Current Texas hitters are batting .169/.234 off Flaherty, and the Tigers lineup ranks second in runs and third in hits league-wide. With the clubs trending in opposite directions, the tout said Detroit should not be the underdog.

Peterson played Under 7.5 (model 6.8) thanks to an elite pitching matchup and two ice-cold offenses. Jacob deGrom has allowed four runs total over his last four starts, chopping his ERA to 2.61. Jack Flaherty counters with a 3.79 ERA, 3.42 FIP and 10.9 K/9. He faces a Texas lineup ranked 28th in scoring (3.2 runs per game). Detroit has scored fewer than four runs in nine of its last 12. Peterson thinks both arms work deep and the scoreboard stays light.

It's The Final Round pointed out that Corey Seeger is 6-for-9 (.667) lifetime versus Tarik Skubal and has a hit in 11 of his last 13 games. Although the tout notes Skubal is not a pushover, Seeger’s dominant head-to-head numbers and current form make him a worthwhile over 1.5 total-bases or single prop target, as well as a strong one-off in DFS tournaments.

Kenny G’s main play for Rangers-Tigers is under 7.5. He trusts Tarik Skubal (2.21 ERA, back-to-back dominant outings) and a dominant Detroit bullpen (2.43 ERA, best in MLB) to keep Texas in check. The Rangers are 28th in runs and 25th in batting average and just got blanked by Boston. On the other side Patrick Corbin carries a solid 3.28 ERA over his last four starts, and Detroit’s hitters may be sluggish after a double-header in Colorado and the subsequent flight home. Trends back it up: the Rangers are 10-8 to the under on the road, Detroit 10-4-2 to the under at Comerica. With the Tigers laying ‑275, Kenny prefers the total to the side, expecting a low-scoring affair.

Scott Reichel likes the first-five innings under (projected line 3.5-4) with Tarik Skubal facing the Rangers. He noted Detroit’s ace owns a 0.90 ERA over his last five starts and will likely be asked to work deep because the Tigers bullpen will be taxed by Thursday’s doubleheader. Opposing starter Corbin (3.28 ERA, <3 ER allowed in five straight) has quietly kept Texas in games and now meets a Detroit lineup that ranks only 18th in wRC+. Reichel envisions both arms trading zeros early, calling 1-1 after five a realistic scenario. If you need a side, he’d sprinkle Tigers -1.5, but his primary play is the F5 under.

Lonte Smith recommended an escalator ladder on Tarik Skubal strikeouts (8+ at plus money) paired with a Tigers moneyline ticket. Skubal has hit eight or more Ks in three of his last four starts and boasts a 35% strikeout rate over that stretch. Texas has fallen to 7-10 in its last 17 and fired its hitting coach this week while striking out 24.6% of the time versus lefties. Detroit is 13-3 at Comerica Park and averaging 8.6 runs across its last seven wins. With the Rangers bullpen lugging a 5.02 ERA over the last ten and Skubal posting a 0.90 ERA in his past five outings, Smith believes the Tigers cruise while their ace racks up punch-outs.

He took the UNDER, stressing Texas’ 2.3-run average over the last nine games and season-long offensive woes that already cost the club a hitting coach. Skubal’s 1.06 home ERA should stymie the Rangers, while Corbin will need perfection to keep pace—unlikely given his five-plus road ERA. With Texas near the bottom of every scoring metric and facing an elite lefty, total runs are projected to be scarce.

He laid the points with Detroit, highlighting Tarik Skubal’s 1.06 home ERA and overall 2.21 mark. Texas owns the sixth-worst batting average and is third-to-last in runs (3.2 per game), hitting just .229 versus lefties. Patrick Corbin’s 5.00 road ERA and shaky rotation depth give the Tigers’ fourth-ranked offense a clear edge. Detroit’s ability to exploit Texas’ struggles against southpaws and Skubal’s ace-level dominance make the Tigers a justified favorite.

Joe Orrico said Jacob deGrom is still his favorite Cy Young dart at 16-to-1 despite the early market flocking to Paul Skenes and Yoshinobu Yamamoto. Through seven starts deGrom owns a 2.61 ERA, 1.00 WHIP and two wins over 38 innings, even though his strikeouts (36) lag behind peak levels. Orrico explained that deGrom is intentionally living at 96-97 mph instead of 99-100 in an effort to stay healthy, calling it "learning how to pitch again" rather than just overpowering hitters. He expects the K-rate to climb as the new approach settles in and projects a mid-2s ERA with a sub-1.00 WHIP over roughly 170 innings. Orrico also highlighted the human-interest angle—voters may want to reward an inner-circle ace who has been snake-bitten by injuries—giving deGrom a useful narrative boost if the stats remain elite. At 16-1, Orrico views him as the best risk-reward ticket in the AL market.

Just A Bet Outside said Tarik Skubal is set up for a ceiling strikeout game against Texas. The Rangers own the 7th-highest K-rate versus left-handed pitching over the last three weeks (24.6 %), and Skubal has been mowing hitters down with 48 Ks in 40.2 innings. He already punched out 11 Orioles and 8 Angels—both high-whiff clubs—in his last two starts. The host noted Skubal’s punch-out percentage actually climbs at Comerica (31.3 % home vs 29 % road) and he fans lefties at a hefty 32.5 % clip. All the metrics line up for an OVER on his strikeout prop and for using him as a DFS SP1 on Thursday’s full slate.

Bevilacqua highlighted Texas on the moneyline at +225, explaining the Dimers projections give the Rangers a 34.2% win probability. That figure creates a 3.4% edge versus the 30.8% implied odds, turning the heavy underdog into a +EV play. The recommendation stems from the same simulation set that underpins the run-line play, showing enough upset potential to warrant a sprinkle on the outright despite Detroit being favored.

Jason Bevilacqua said the Dimers predictive-analytics engine fired on Rangers +1.5 at +105, flagging a 5.0% expected value edge after thousands of Monte Carlo simulations. The model gives Texas a 53.8% chance to cover the run line – meaning the implied price should be closer to -116, not +105. Bevilacqua noted the pick is machine-learning driven and updated the morning of the game, giving bettors a playable cushion in a matchup where Detroit is still favored straight-up but projects to win by one run or less often enough to make the +1.5 profitable.

Data Skrive’s proprietary projection system took a hard stance on Friday’s opener at Comerica Park, recommending a Tigers moneyline play at the steep -271 price and an Under 7.5 total. The model is baking in Detroit’s 25-13 record and four-game winning streak, while fading a scuffling Texas club that has slipped to 18-20. Comerica’s power-sapping dimensions plus a 6:40 p.m. first pitch in 55-degree weather further support a low-scoring environment. The computer outputs give Detroit a 67% win probability and project a combined 6.3 runs, well below the posted number.

Perrault paired Detroit with San Diego in his two-leg parlay, emphasizing how hot the Tigers are and how cold the Rangers’ bats have been. Detroit has won four straight and owns a 13-3 home record, while Texas is 18-20 overall and just 6-12 away from Arlington after being blanked by Boston. Tarik Skubal (3-0, 2.21 ERA, 0.98 WHIP) gets the ball for Detroit and Perrault called it “Scooble Day,” noting the left-hander’s Cy-Young-caliber form. Texas counters with Patrick Corbin, who Perrault conceded has been respectable but still represents a significant pitching disadvantage against Skubal. Given Detroit’s momentum and Texas’ offensive malaise, he likes the Tigers moneyline as the second piece of the plus-118 parlay.

Caleb Wilfinger said Detroit -1.5 is worth laying up to -125 because everything is pointing the Tigers’ way. Detroit owns the American League’s best record and a blistering 13-3 mark at Comerica Park. Tarik Skubal has been unhittable at home, giving up only 2 earned runs across 17.0 innings, while the lineup ranks 2nd in runs (208) and 3rd in hits (340). Texas, meanwhile, has nosedived over its last 15 games and sends struggling lefty Patrick Corbin plus a bullpen carrying a 4.03 ERA. Wilfinger framed the bet as a classic hot-vs-cold spot in which Detroit’s firepower and pitching edge justify laying the run and a half.